Stats Final: 2002 MetroMoves Initiative vs. Current Public Transportation in Cincinnati Madison DeMay Introduction: When money and a plan is put behind public transportation, it is safer, routes are more effective and commute time is reduced, it also reduces traffic congestion, saves citizens money, reduces air pollution, and increases mobility. The 2002 MetroMoves Initiative planned to convert Hamilton County’s public transportation, the SORTA bus system, to 5 light rails, with added streetcars, and an overhaul of the current bus system. That plan failed when voted upon by the residents of Hamilton County when asked for a half cent sales tax levy. Supporters of MetroMoves believe that the initiative failed because reasons such as the 1996 Stadium Sales Tax, the 2001 Race Riot, and a dirty opposition campaign led by Stephen Louis. (Who would eventually become appointed to SORTA’s board, to be fired over racist and anti-public transportation emails). Cincinnati has been trying to improve their public transportation system with light rail since 1912 but has failed to gather public support each time. MetroMoves planned to link a dozen new suburban transit hubs with new cross-town bus routes, as well as renovate and put into use the twomile subway beneath Central Parkway. (This tunnel was built between 1920 and 1922 as part of the Rapid Transit Loop that was never finished). By the end of the MetroMoves plan, the system would connect all of the region's job and population centers. Instead, what we have today is underfunded and underemployed SORTA bus system. Many people do not use the bus if they do not have to because of long commute times, safety, and the buses being unreliable. However, some in Cincinnati use it to get to work every day because they do not have access to a car or because they want to decrease their carbon footprint. There is a demand for better public transportation throughout Hamilton County, though many do not utilize the current system because of its shortcomings.
Hypothesis and Theory: The busing system is ineffective, and many choose to not utilize it. There is a lot of daily congestion downtown that could be avoided if people did not rely as heavily on cars as they do now. Since many people commute to and from downtown Cincinnati and the surrounding neighborhoods daily, there is heavy traffic for large parts of the day on local roads, as well as highways and state routes. The MetroMoves initiative was planned to be implemented in phases, and funding would be provided with a minimal half cent sales tax increase, that would pay for the citizens portion of the fundraising. If the plan were to be implemented today it would cost more due to inflation, and more buses would need to be replaced due to their age. This plan or one like it, looking to improve public transportation efficiency, would greatly benefit people who live, work, and visit Cincinnati. In this study, the dependent variable is daily commute time and the independent variable is public and private transportation available in Hamilton County. These items are related because the commute time for citizens depends on their mode of travel. In most cases it is more convenient and less time consuming to travel to work by car as opposed to taking one or multiple SORTA bus routes to reach your destination. More effective transportation, such as light rail would provide a similar commute time as cars; during peak travel times in Hamilton County, light rail could also be more efficient than car travel. The difficulty in proving that the Cincinnati MetroMoves initiative is more effective than the current SORTA bus routes is that there is a lack of data on the subject. Since this initiative was turned down by voters, there is not specific data on where exactly in each bus stop would be placed, how fast the light rail would travel, and for how long the rail would be stopped at each location along the route. Data: For the data on the SORTA bus stops and routes I am using the method that the GoMETRO organization recommended; mapping how long each route is estimated to take using Google Maps. These routes are up to date, but route times may vary during times of heavier traffic, or when there are not as many people on the road. I mapped these routes in ArcGIS Desktop, with information provided by CagisCoreLayers. For data on the MetroMoves initiative I am estimating the amount of time it would take to travel each route, including stops, with the assumption that the train travels at 50 miles per hour. Since there is no concrete MetroMoves data on how fast the rail would run, I took the average of other new rail systems to be the speed of the proposed light rail routes. The stops will be located generally within the area since there are no concrete data points of where the stops would be. One could infer that many would be at current bus stops and Park and Ride stations. MetroMoves 5 routes follows the along major roadways and are labeled after them in reference.
Current Hamilton County Bus Routes
2002 MetroMoves Initiative Proposal
Descriptive Statistics: The data I created used the rate of miles per hour (50mph) x miles traveled. Below is the comparison between the average route time taken on different modes of transportation: MetroMoves light rail, by car, or by SORTA bus.
The data shows that there is some amount of difference but not a significant difference between car travel time and light rail travel time. However, there is a vast difference between the average route time of a SORTA bus route in comparison with the other two modes of transportation. I will add for reference that car travel can take longer during peak hours of the day such as rush hour. Also, those who travel by car are measured following the same route, but not with added stops since those driving to work are not stopping at each bus stop along the route.
The data shows that the current bus system cannot keep up with cars or light rail. SORTA overall had the highest mean, median, standard deviation, and maximum number. Below are all routes compared next to each other for reference:
Inferential Statistics: I produced an ANOVA analysis to test the result of my descriptive statistics analysis. This test concluded that, in terms of miles per hour, there is not a significant difference between car and light rail, but there is a large difference between light rail or car when compared to the bus. I also performed a linear regression ANOVA test that measured the difference in time between the three modes. In that test you can see almost the same outcome from the miles per hour analysis, that the MetroMoves initiative is the best solution. Between a car and light rail there is not a significant
difference, but it is noticeable in the chart. You can see that light rail is superior to the current bus system in Hamilton County. My hypothesis was that light rail could be comparable to car, at the 50 miles per hour speed limit, but far faster than the bus. Since the main population in Hamilton County who use the bus use it since they do not have access to a car, this is a more comparable commute time for this population. The other main reason why people take the bus is to decrease their carbon footprint. By implementing light rail, more people would use it when compared to the average ridership of the SORTA bus system. Since more people would use the rail this means more cars on the road, which is better for the environment. Miles Per Hour ANOVA:
Time ANOVA:
Discussion: What I found during this process is that light rail is a superior form of public transportation since it is faster, more reliable, cannot get stuck in traffic, reduces the carbon footprint, and would increase the popularity of public transportation in Hamilton County. Something that I would change if doing this project over again is the focus on the MetroMoves initiative specifically. When conducting research for this project I later found that there are better design proposals of a light rail system on Hamilton County. The MetroMoves Initiative was to follow along major roadways and looks very similar to our bus routes now, just more simplified. The downfall of this model is accessibility for everyone in Hamilton County. Much like with our current bus system MetroMoves is focused on moving people in and out of downtown Cincinnati effectively, it does not serve everyone in Hamilton County. Proposals such as the 2017 Better Bus Coalition project would bring access to over 90% of Hamilton County residents. In this model most of the population would be within a 520 minute walk of a proposed stop, unlike with MetroMoves. Conclusion: The MetroMoves initiative would be a better option for public transportation, as our current SORTA buses are not an effective form of travel. Though that does not mean that that proposal is what should happen in Hamilton County. I do believe light rail is the way of the future in Cincinnati, but there needs to be a better route and plan in place than MetroMoves Initiative.