September 2026 Lamorinda Market Outlook
Data through August 2026
September 2026 Housing Market Report August marked a broad seasonal cooling across the Bay Area. Closings declined year over year in 13 of 14 counties and month over month in 12, while months of supply increased from July in 13 counties. The shift reflects the typical late-summer slowdown as the market transitions from the spring/summer peak toward the fall market peak. Competition remained stronger than a year ago. The share of sales closing above list increased year over year in all 14 counties, while average days on market improved in 11. Price reductions increased in 10 counties, consistent with the seasonal rise in listing adjustments as the market moves toward fall and winter. Single-family homes continued to show stronger market conditions than condos. Single-family closings fell year over year in nine counties but increased in five, and days on market declined in 13. The share of sales closing above list increased across every county. By contrast, condo price reductions increased in 12 counties, while condo days on market rose in six — signaling a more uneven recovery. Condo momentum appears to be moderating after a strong summer. The condo median increased year over year in six counties and declined in eight, while the share of condos selling above list rose in only eight. August is the first month of data following new condo lending regulations, so it is too early to determine whether the slowdown reflects the regulations or the normal latesummer seasonal pattern. San Francisco remains the regional standout. Condo sales increased 11% year over year to 214, the condo median rose 22% to $1.23 million, and active condo listings fell 36%. San Francisco was the only county where condos showed both meaningful price and closed transaction growth. September watch: The strongest appreciation outside San Francisco was concentrated north of the city, with Marin posting the region’s second-highest year-over-year gain. Condo sales and pricing will be closely watched to determine whether August’s slowdown is temporary or the beginning of a broader shift. The performance of smaller versus larger condo buildings will also be important, particularly as the impact of the new lending regulations becomes clearer. Atherton’s nearly $10 million increase in its median price, driven by a few high-value sales, will be another notable test of whether recent gains will be sustained.
Lamorinda Market
Report created in good faith using public and proprietary data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and is subject to revision. Data is pulled at the end of the month, and lastperiod figures may still be preliminary due to latereported activity. All numbers are approximate and may change, including Private Exclusive sales and other transactions not publicly reported at the time of publication.
How to Read This Report: County and Submarket Guidance Data quality—THIN CONDOS: Lamorinda (Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda) closed 50 single-family homes in August. Condo data are too limited for reliable metrics; ignore all condo price figures. Single-family solidity: Single-family data rest on 50 closings, reasonable for submarket analysis. Sales fell 12% YoY and 12% from July. The median rose 12% to $1.84M, but price per square foot was essentially flat, indicating the higher median was mix-related rather than broad-based appreciation. Days-on-market fell from 45 to 30 YoY—meaningful improvement. Overbid rose to 46%, up 13 points YoY. Inventory compression: Active listings fell 29% to 79, and months of supply improved from 2.0 to 1.6. Despite lower sales, the market tightened visibly. Absorption improved 16 points to 71%—the highest in the region. Geography and composition: Lamorinda is a wealthy suburban enclave in Contra Costa, known for good schools and familyoriented living. The market is almost entirely single-family. Submarket volatility: Lamorinda is a micro-market with few annual sales. Individual month-to-month variance is high. Multimonth trends are more reliable than single-month snapshots. Guidance: Lamorinda remains tight with 1.6 months of supply and 71% absorption. Treat single-family data as directional and best read in multi-month context. Ignore all condo figures.
Lamorinda Market Recap Cities included: Lafayette, Moraga and Orinda. Sales: Lamorinda closed 50 single-family homes, down 12% YoY and 12% from July, making it the smallest of the five submarkets by transaction volume. Prices: The single-family median rose 12% to $1.84M, while price per square foot was essentially flat at $773. The difference suggests the higher median was more reflective of the mix of homes sold than broad-based appreciation. Speed: Marketing conditions improved substantially. Days on market fell from 45 to 30 YoY, while 46% of sales closed above list compared with 33% a year ago. Inventory: Active single-family listings fell 29% to 79 even as new listings increased 3% to 67. Contracts declined 10% to 56, but inventory fell much faster, pushing absorption up 16 points to 71% and months of supply down from 2.0 to 1.6. Negotiation: Price reductions were unchanged at 28, while the reduction rate increased 1 point to 30%. This indicates that stronger overall market conditions have not eliminated pressure on listings that fail to sell quickly. Condos: The condo market remains very small. Active listings increased 9% to 25, new listings were unchanged at 7, and price reductions increased from 8 to 11. MoM: Month over month, single-family closings fell 12%, active listings 17%, and new listings 14%. Contracts remained at 56, allowing absorption to rise 12 points and supply to improve from 1.7 to 1.6 months. Competition: Days on market improved from 34 to 30 and overbidding increased 2 points, although the reduction rate also rose 3 points to 30%. Bottom line: Lamorinda remains tight, with very limited inventory, 1.6 months of supply and 71% absorption. The market is competitive, although the higher reduction rate indicates some listings continue to struggle.
Lamorinda
September 2026 Housing Market Report Mortgage rates remain stubbornly elevated at 6.8%, near a 15-month high, as government spending, geopolitical tension, and inflation fears keep bond markets on edge. Don't expect meaningful rate relief soon. Inflation, while easing for two straight months, is still running well above the Fed's 2% target. Locally, the story has flipped. Ater years of Bay Area inflation running below the national rate, home price appreciation has resumed. The labor market sends mixed signals. Nationally, August jobs data showed surprising strength, averaging 80,000 new jobs a month in 2026. That’s good for homebuyer confidence, but also fuel for inflation and higher-for-longer rates. Locally, it's the opposite: the Bay Area has shed jobs five months running, and tech employment keeps contracting nationally. Low hiring rates continue to suppress relocation-driven demand, a key historical driver of home sales. The bright spots: foreclosures remain near historic lows thanks to high homeowner equity, and Bay Area home prices are outperforming, up 3.3% year-over-year versus 1.5% nationally. Millennials (30-39) now account for the largest share of mortgage borrowers. Perhaps most notably for our market, inbound migration to the Bay Area has turned positive for the first time in years, with Seattle, Austin, and Manhattan feeding new arrivals. Mike Simonsen Chief Economist Compass International Holdings The section of this report are select macro-economic and demographic data for the country and the Bay Area.
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California operating under multiple entities. License Numbers 01991628, 01527235, 01527365. All material is intended for informational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject to errors, omissions, changes in price, condition, sale, or withdrawal without notice. No statement is made as to the accuracy of any description or measurements (including square footage). This is not intended to solicit property already listed. No financial or legal advice provided. Equal Housing Opportunity. Photos may be virtually staged or digitally enhanced and may not reflect actual property conditions.