24th October , 2013
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TOP Contents - Tailored for YOU Latest News Headlines…
Oryza Rice Currency Analysis for Today – Mexico Peso Down 0.9%; Brazil Real Down 0.7% Indonesia 2013 Paddy Rice Production Forecast to Reach 69.3 Million Tons Vietnam Increases 25% Broken Rice Minimum Export Price to $375 Per Ton Philippines NFA Terms Illegal Private Deal to Import 120,000 Tons Rice from Vietnam Philippines MY 2013-14 Rice Imports Forecast at 1.1 Million Tons, Despite Higher Production Oryza Afternoon Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Rally as Shorts Get Desperate to Roll Positions Forward Iraq to Accept Brazil Rice in Future Tenders Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Continue Trend of Lower Trade Overnight on Low Trade Volume FAO Increases India 2013 Rice Export Forecast to 9.5 Million Tons Oryza Quick Glance at World News Vietnam, Pakistan Rice Sellers Increase Some of Their Quotes Oryza Global Rice Quotes
NEWS DETAILS:
Oryza Rice Currency Analysis for Today – Mexico Peso Down 0.9%; Brazil Real Down 0.7% Oct 23, 2013
U.S. dollar index was up +0.04% from the open today, when it traded at 79.261 at the close. Euro was -0.01% lower today by the close, trading around 1.3780 by end of day, after trading between an intraday high of 1.3793 and low of 1.3742. The dollar traded relatively flat after yesterday’s sell-off.
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Thai baht was weaker -0.48%, trading at 31.190 at the close of business. Indian rupee was stronger +0.10% trading at 61.5900. Brazilian real was -0.73% weaker than the open at today’s close, when it ended at 2.1884 reais per dollar. Pakistan rupee was -0.13% weaker at the close, trading at 106.4875. Vietnamese dong was +0.02% stronger at 21100. Mexican peso was -0.89% weaker today, when it traded at 12.9573 pesos per dollar by the close of business today. Chinese yuan was stronger +0.12% at 6.0859. Argentine peso was -0.18% weaker at 5.8639 pesos per dollar. Tags: foreign exchange rates
Indonesia 2013 Paddy Rice Production Forecast to Reach 69.3 Million Tons Oct 23, 2013
Indonesia’s paddy rice production is expected to reach around 69.3 million tons (about 43.6 million tons, basis milled) in 2013, down from previous forecasts due to localized adverse weather conditions but slightly above the last year’s bumper rice crop, according to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The FAO says that rice imports in 2013 are expected to decline to around 1.3 million tons, down about 28% from an estimated 1.9 million tons in 2012 and down about 55% from around 2.9 million tons in 2011. However, Indonesia’s rice import forecast for 2013 may be lowered following the recent claim by the National Logistics Agency (Bulog) that there will be no need to import rice in 2013. According to Bulog, rice surplus in Indonesia is expected to reach around 1.87 million tons by the end of 2013. Tags: Indonesia rice production 2013
Vietnam Increases 25% Broken Rice Minimum Export Price to $375 Per Ton Oct 23, 2013
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Vietnam has increased the minimum export price (MEP) for 25%- broken rice to $375 per ton, up about 4% from $360 per ton in effect since September 2013, according to trade sources. The new MEP will come into effect on October 25, 2013.Local traders say that Vietnam rice prices are high due to demand from China and the Philippines. It is estimated that about 1.2 million tons of rice have been exported to China this year so far in unofficial border trade. Private traders in the Philippines have also signed a contract to import around 120,000 tons of rice from Vietnam. However, current export quotes for Viet 25% broken rice stand at around $370 per ton, and it is doubtful whether traders will quote above the new MEP in the coming weeks when rice from the new harvest in the Mekong Delta starts entering the market. Vietnamese traders are also facing increasing competition from Thailand which is lowering prices to help boost exports. Moreover, the Philippines authorities said today that the 120,000 tons rice import deal with Vietnam is illegal and requires special permits.
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Tags: Vietnam rice exports, Minimum Export Price
Philippines NFA Terms Illegal Private Deal to Import 120,000 Tons Rice from Vietnam Oct 23, 2013
The Philippines National Food Authority (NFA) has warned that reported contracts between private importers and Vietnam Southern Food Corporation II (Vinafood II) for the supply of 120,000 tons of Vietnam rice to the Philippines is illegal and will be intercepted by the Customs. According to the NFA, under the Minimum Access Volume – Country Specific Quota Program, private rice importers in the Philippines can only source their rice supply from Thailand, India, Australia and China. Importers must first get an Import Permit from the NFA, as specified under Presidential Decree No. 4, to import rice from other countries. “These safeguards are important for the welfare of our local farmers who are greatly affected by the overimportation of rice into the country, that’s why the NFA is doing its best to strictly enforce the import volume restriction and the required permit,” NFA spokesman said. The NFA has requested the Bureau of Customs (BOC) to be vigilant about the private rice import deal. Smuggling of rice into the Philippines is a threat to the rice self-sufficiency goals of the government. According to the USDA, about 400,000 tons of rice was smuggled into the Philippines in 2012-13, almost 40% of around 1 million tons of official rice imports. Tags: Philippines rice imports
Philippines MY 2013-14 Rice Imports Forecast at 1.1 Million Tons, Despite Higher Production
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Oct 23, 2013
The USDA Post in Manila says that the Philippines may have to import around 1.1 million tons of rice in MY 2013-14 (May – April) despite higher production. This is contrary to government claims that rice imports will not exceed the WTO requirements of around 350,000 tons this year. The Post says that paddy rice production in the Philippines is largely unaffected by the recent weather disturbances and is expected to reach around 18.57 million tons (about 11.7 million tons, basis milled) in 201314, up around 2% from around 18.14 million tons (about 11.43 million tons, basis milled) produced in the previous year. However, this is about 7% or about 1.47 million tons lower than the government target of achieving 20.04 million tons paddy rice production in its attempt to stop rice imports this year. However, the projected rice imports of around 1.1 million tons in MY 2013-14 are down about 21% from around 1.4 million tons (including about 400,000 tons of contraband rice imports) in MY 2012-13. The Post says that imports are likely to decline in MY 2013-14 due to higher production and lower consumption. Rice consumption in MY 2013-14 is forecast to reach around 12.8 million tons, down about 0.3% from around 12.85 million tons in the previous year. The decline is partly attributed to high rice prices in the country which reached around $840 per ton in September 2013, up about 9% from around $770 per ton in July 2013.Under the Food Staples Sufficiency Program (FSSP), the Philippine government is targeting to increase paddy rice production from around 18.14 million tons in 2012 to 20.04 million tons in 2013, 21 million tons in 2014 and 22.7 million tons by 2016. Tags: philippine rice imports
Oryza Afternoon Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Rally as Shorts Get Desperate to Roll Positions Forward Oct 23, 2013
Chicago rough rice futures for November delivery settled 17.5 cents per cwt (about $4 per ton) higher at $15.460 per cwt (about $341 per ton). Rough rice futures rallied today coming within 1.5 cents per cwt (about $0.33 per ton) of testing the nearby high of $15.495 per cwt (about $342 per ton). The November/January spread continues to dominate market activity with another active day or rolling on the part of large funds, with the two contracts settling at parity on the day. It is likely that the majority of this action has been completed today and the market will likely quite down for the remainder of the week with the spreading pressure now released. Additional support came from bullishness in the other grains which also finished higher today; soybeans finished the day about 0.6% higher at $13.1000 per bushel; wheat finished about 0.1% higher at $7.0275 per bushel; and corn finished the day about 1% higher at $4.4375 per bushel.U.S. stocks held their
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losses Wednesday, as investors took a breather after the S&P 500 hit a high for the fourth-straight session, amid worries over financial conditions in China and on the heels of a mixed bag of earnings reports. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq also slid. The S&P 500 set a record high for the fourth-straight session Tuesday, closing above 1,750 for the first time, after the tepid September jobs report gave further evidence to investors that the Federal Reserve will continue to support the economy at the current pace. Meanwhile, the Dow is within 1.5% of its all-time record set last month. Most S&P sectors were in the red, dragged by energy and materials, while defensive sectors such as utilities and consumer staples kept a limit on losses. U.S. stock markets are currently trading down about 0.5%, gold is trading about 0.7% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 1.3% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading marginally lower at about 2:00pm Chicago time.Looking to the daily continuation chart of Chicago rough rice futures for November delivery, the market rocketed higher today on continued strength in the November/January spread as shorts look to roll their positions forward at any cost ahead of next week’s first notice day. The bulls found resistance around $15.495 per cwt (about $342) a level which the market was unable to penetrate in multiple attempts last week. Today’s action provides a positive outlook for tomorrows price direction, however as mentioned overhead resistance is very close with secondary resistance at $15.535 per cwt (about $342 per ton) as provided by the 200-day moving average. A breaking of these levels would likely trigger additional buying as prices attempt to reach the current price target of $15.620 per cwt (about $344 per ton) provided by the upper Bollinger band. Today’s trading range is noted as $15.235-$15.480 per cwt (about $336-$341 per ton).Tuesday, there were 3,322 contracts traded, up from 3,028 contracts traded on Monday. Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Tuesday decreased by 103 contracts to 10,329. Tags: chicago rough rice futures
Iraq to Accept Brazil Rice in Future Tenders Oct 23, 2013
With rice supplies running low in origins eligible for Iraqi rice tenders – the U.S., Argentina, and Uruguay – Iraq is now also accepting Brazil origin rice, according to an Iraqi official. Prior to this consideration, Brazil rice was not eligible due to the nation’s large array of rice varieties and differing standards, making tenders more challenging. Tags: Iraq rice tender, Brazil rice exports
Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Continue Trend of Lower Trade Overnight on Low Trade Volume Oct 23, 2013
Chicago rough rice futures for November delivery are currently paused 2.5 cents per cwt (about $1 per ton) higher at $15.235 per cwt (about $336 per ton) as of 8:30am Chicago time. The other grains are seen lower this
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morning ahead of floor trading in Chicago: soybeans are currently seen about 0.7% lower, wheat is seen about 0.3% lower, and corn is paused about 0.3% lower.U.S. stock index futures signaled a sharply lower open on Wednesday, as corporate earnings painted a mixed picture and Japanese and Chinese stocks sold off on fears of bad bank debt and tight liquidity in China. Japan's Nikkei and the Shanghai Composite hit one-week and twoweek lows amid reports that top Chinese lenders including the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China wrote off about $3.7 billion in bad debt for the first six months of the year, higher than last year. Plus, a spike in shortterm Chinese money rates weighed on sentiment, after the central bank refused to inject cash into markets for a second straight session. The fall-back in Asian markets followed a worldwide boost to risk-on assets on Tuesday, after weak official U.S. employment data piqued hopes the Federal Reserve will not start tapering off its asset purchases until next year. The S&P 500 set a record high for the fourth-straight session Tuesday, closing well above 1,750. Meanwhile, the Dow is within 1.5% of its all-time record set last month. On the economic front, U.S. import prices gained 0.2% in September, but there was no indication of a rise in imported inflation pressures, according to the Labor Department. In the 12 months through September, import prices declined 1.0%. U.S. stock index futures are currently trading about 0.3% lower, gold is currently trading about 0.7% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 1./% lower, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.1% higher at 8:30am Chicago time. Tags: chicago rough rice futures
FAO Increases India 2013 Rice Export Forecast to 9.5 Million Tons Oct 23, 2013
The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has increased India’s rice export forecast for 2013 to 9.5 million tons, up about 8% from the July forecast of 8.8 million tons.The upward revision is based on expected production gains this year. The FAO says that despite poor weather conditions, rice acreage is expected to be larger than last year’s levels. Average paddy rice production in India including the ongoing Kharif and the 2013-14 Rabi seasons is expected to reach around 162 million tons (about 108 million tonnes, milled basis), which is up about 3% from the 2012 near record harvest, according to the FAO.In 2012-13, India produced about 104.4 million tons of rice (milled basis), of which around 10.3 million tons were exported. Tags: India rice production
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Oryza Quick Glance at World News Oct 23, 2013
Financial Times – *Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates has made a big bet on the recovery of Spain’s construction sector by becoming the second-largest shareholder in FCC, a Spanish builder hit hard by the collapse of a decade-long property bubble five years ago. *The ECB will on Wednesday outline its planned health checks on eurozone banks, a year before it takes over responsibility as the eurozone’s top banking supervisor. *Rabobank is set to face a fine of almost $1 billion for the alleged manipulation of Libor and other benchmark interbank lending rates as early as next week as regulators continue to punish the architects of a scandal that has shaken trust in the financial system. *JPMorgan Chase is nearing a $6 billion settlement with institutional investors to resolve claims it mis-sold mortgage-backed securities, according to people familiar with the matter. *Mark Carney, Bank of England governor, has defied a government drive to minimize the use of management consultants in the public sector by hiring McKinsey and Deloitte to transform the central bank. *Mr. Barack Obama was not aware that the U.S. government’s health insurance exchange website was affected by technology glitches until after its launch, according to health secretary Kathleen Sebelius. Millions of uninsured Americans have been prevented from purchasing insurance online. *SAC Capital, the U.S.-based hedge fund negotiating a $1 billion-plus settlement to insider trading charges, will close its London office by the end of this year, executives told staff on Tuesday. *The U.S. secretary of state, John Kerry, has spent much of the past two days in Paris and London talking to Prince Saud al-Faisal, his Saudi counterpart, as the Americans try to reassure one of their closest regional allies over their intentions in Syria, Egypt, and Iran. Wall Street Journal*Much of northeastern China remained shrouded in heavy smog on Tuesday, forcing the closure of roads, schools and a major airport for a second day, and adding to public pressure on Chinese officials to address mounting concerns over air pollution. *U.S. employers added 148,000 jobs during the month, well below the pace of gains seen in the first half of the year, the delayed September U.S. jobs report showed, created a new obstacle for the Federal Reserve to wind down its controversial bond-buying program. *Australian national consumer-price index was up 1.2% from the second quarter and 2.2% from a year earlier, the government said Wednesday, narrowed the scope for the central bank to make further interest-rate cuts to cushion the economy from a mining slowdown. *Since Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took office last December, both the yen and yields on sovereign debt have gone down, largely due to the government and the Bank of Japan's heavy involvement in the economy’s monetary framework. However, with the BOJ now purchasing Japanese government bonds at a faster pace than Japan’s government can issue debt, economists at the IMF warn that Mr. Abe’s plans to revive the economy through monetary policy could hit a wall unless more fundamental reform measures take their place. *New rules designed to boost transparency in the global derivatives market could crimp liquidity in Asia, unless regulators agree on measures to blunt their impact, a top official from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority said
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Tuesday. Under the new requirements for swaps, banks and other market participants must trade most of the derivatives through central clearinghouses and trade repositories, instead of the private market. *Australia's new conservative government said it would seek to raise the ceiling on government borrowing to fund its policies and day-to-day operations, highlighting the dire state of the nation's finances as a long mining boom cools. *India has connected a much-delayed nuclear complex to the power grid in the south of the country and expects it to be supplying millions of industrial and household consumers with it by year-end. It will ease India's crippling power shortages and help bridge a power-supply gap estimated at up to 9% of total demand. *French President Franรงois Hollande said his intelligence services would work with their American counterparts to make sure eavesdropping is only used in the fight against terrorism, cooling a flare-up over what he termed unacceptable U.S. surveillance of French citizens. New York Times*The U.S. Internal Revenue Service plans to delay the start of tax-filing season by a week or two because of the government shutdown, the agency said on Tuesday. However, taxpayers will still have to turn in their 2013 returns by April 15 as usual. *The ECB vowed on Wednesday to submit the euro zone's top banks to a comprehensive batch of tests next year, staking its credibility on a review that aims to build confidence in the sector. *India accused Pakistani troops of firing guns and mortars on at least 50 Indian border posts overnight in disputed Kashmir, calling it the most serious cease-fire violation between the nuclear-armed neighbors in a decade. The attacks began Tuesday night in southern Kashmir after India's home minister visited the region to review security. *The ECB will define bank loans more than 90 days overdue as non-performing in the upcoming asset quality review, following the European Banking Authority's lead, it said on Wednesday. *Thousands of Cambodian opposition supporters began a three-day rally Wednesday to protest what they say was a rigged election and the illegitimate return to power of Prime Minister Hun Sen. *France will consider revising a proposed tax on heavy road transport following go-slow operations by farmers and truck drivers who say it will add to their economic problems, Agriculture Minister Stephane Le Foll said on Wednesday. Tags: World news
Vietnam, Pakistan Rice Sellers Increase Some of Their Quotes Oct 23, 2013
Vietnam rice sellers increased their quotes for Jasmine rice by about $10 per ton to about $545 - $555 per ton today. Pakistan rice sellers increased their quotes for 100% broken rice by about $5 per ton to about $330 $340 per ton. Indian rice sellers kept their quotes unchanged. Thailand rice sellers are out today due to holiday. 5% Broken Rice Thai 5% rice was last quoted around $405 - $415 per ton, about a $10 per ton premium over Viet 5% rice (of summer-autumn crop 2013) shown around $395 - $405 per ton. Indian 5% rice is quoted around $410 - $420 per ton, and about a $35 per ton premium over Pak 5% rice (of new crop) quoted around $375 - $385 per ton.
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25% Broken Rice Thai 25% rice was last quoted about $390 - $400 per ton, about a $25 per ton premium over Viet 25% rice (of summer-autumn crop 2013) shown around $365 - $375 per ton. Indian 25% rice is quoted about $370 - $380 per ton, about a $35 per ton premium over Pak 25% rice (of new crop) quoted around $335 - $345 per ton. Parboiled Rice Thai parboiled rice was last quoted around $435 - $445 per ton. Indian parboiled rice is quoted around $390 - $400 per ton, down about $15 per ton from Friday and about a $30 per ton discount to Pak parboiled rice (of new crop) last quoted around $420 - $430 per ton. 100% Broken Rice Thai broken rice, A1 Super, was last quoted around $370 - $380 per ton, about a $25 per ton premium over Viet broken rice (of summer-autumn crop 2013) shown around $345 - $355 per ton. Indian broken sortexed rice is quoted about $310 - $320 per ton, about a $20 per ton discount to Pak broken sortexed rice (of new crop) quoted around $330 - $340 per ton, up about $5 per ton from yesterday. Tags: Asia rice quotes, Thailand rice quotes, Vietnam rice quotes, India rice quotes, Pakistan rice quotes
Oryza Global Rice Quotes October 24th, 2013 Long grain white rice - high quality Thailand 100% B grade
415-425
Vietnam 5% broken
395-405
↔
India 5% broken
410-420
↔
Pakistan 5% broken
375-385
↔
Cambodia 5% broken 445-455
↔
U.S. 4% broken
595-605
↔
Uruguay 5% broken
615-625
↔
Argentina 5% broken 615-625
↔
↔
Long grain white rice - low quality Thailand 25% broken 390-400
↔
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Vietnam 25% broken 365-375
↔
Pakistan 25% broken 335-345
↔
Cambodia 25% broken
415-425
India 25% broken
370-380
↔
U.S. 15% broken
575-585
↔
↔
Long grain parboiled rice Thailand parboiled 100% stxd
435-445
↔
Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd
420-430
↔
India parboiled 5% broken stxd
390-400
↔
U.S. parboiled 4% broken
660-670
↔
Brazil parboiled 5% broken
590-600
↑
NQ
↔
1080-1090
↔
Uruguay parboiled 5% broken Long grain fragrant rice Thailand Hommali 92% Vietnam Jasmine
535-545
India basmati 2% broken
↓
1515 -1525
Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ
↔
Cambodia Pkha Malis 925-935
↔
↔
Brokens Thailand A1 Super
370-380
↔
Vietnam 100% broken
345-355
↔
Pakistan 100% broken stxd
330-340
↔
Cambodia A1 Super
370-380
↔
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India 100% Broken stxd
310-320
Egypt medium grain brokens NQ U.S. pet food 370-380 Brazil half grain
↔
↔
↔
345-355
↔
Medium grain milled U.S. Calrose 4% broken
620-630
Egypt medium grain 6%
NQ
↔
↔ All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com
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