Daily Exclusive ORYZA
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Rice E-Newsletter
April 22,2016 Vol 7,Issue IV
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Paraguay Rice Sector Faces Tough Times with Excess Stocks, Low Export Prices, Says USDA Post
The USDA Post forecasts Paraguay’s MY 2015-16 (April - March) milled rice production at around 402,000 tons, down from around 570,000 tons last year and down from USDA's official estimates of around 560,000 tons due to a decline in rice acreage. It forecasts production to increase to 469,000 tons in MY 2016-17 despite a further decline in acreage. The Post forecasts Paraguay's MY 2015-16 and MY 2016-17 rice acreage at around 125,000 hectares and 110,000 hectares respectively compared to around 140,000 hectares in MY 201415. The USDA Post says the local rice sector is facing tough times due to excess stocks and low export prices. Since producers have had two crops in a row with low prices, their financial situation of the sector has deteriorated. Accordingly, the Post expects some banks and input suppliers to very careful in providing financing and that this situation could limit the future planted area. The Post forecasts rice consumption to remain stable at around 120,000 tons in MY 2015-16 and slightly increase to around 125,000 tons in MY 2016-17 due to an increase in Brazilians in eastern area.
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The USDA Post forecasts Paraguay's rice exports in MY 2015-16 at around 320,000 tons, down from 400,000 tons last year and down from USDA's official estimates of around 500,000 tons. It forecasts exports to increase to around 350,000 tons in MY 2016-17. Paraguay mainly exports rice to Brazil and Chile. After the Brazilian devaluation in 2015, rice prices have dropped significantly in the country. Therefore, the sector and the government have been working to open new markets to be able to diversify exports, says the Post.
Pakistan Rice Export Earnings Decline Sharply in First Nine Months of FY 2015-16 Despite Increase in Tonnage
Pakistan exported around 3.31 million tons of rice (including 299,510 tons of basmati and 3.012 million tons of non-basmati) in the first nine months of FY 2015-16 (July 2015 - March 2016), up about 10% from around 3 million tons (373,584 tons of basmati and 2.63 million tons of nonbasmati) exported during the same period in FY 2014-15, according to provisional data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).
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However, in terms of value, Pakistan earned around $1,376 million during the nine months of FY 2015-16, down about 12% from around $1,570 million earned last year. The decline is attributed to a sharp decline in global rice prices. In March 2016, Pakistan exported around 415,463 tons of rice, down about 8% from around 450,689 tons exported in February 2016 and down about 9% from around 455,027 tons exported in March 2015. In terms of value, Pakistan earned about $167 million in March 2016, down about 8% from around $182 million earned in February 2016 and down about 22% from their year-ago levels of around $215 million. Pakistan exported around 37,526 tons of basmati rice in March 2016, down about 2% from around 38,350 tons exported in February 2016, and down about 19% from around 46,197 tons exported in March 2015. In terms of value, Pakistan's basmati rice exports earned $34 million in march 2016, down about 8% from around $37 million earned in February 2016, and down about 27% from around $51 million earned in March 2015. Pakistan exported around 377,937 tons of non-basmati rice in March 2016, down about 8% from around 412,339 tons exported in February 2016 and down about 8% from around 408,830 tons in March 2015. In terms of value, Pakistan's non-basmati rice exports earned $133 million in March 2016, down about 8% from around $145 million earned in February 2016, and down about 19% from around $164 million earned in March 2015.
Rising Whisky Prices and Falling Rice Consumption in Japan Encourage Farmers to Give Up Rice for Barley Rising whisky prices and falling rice consumption are prompting Japan rice farmers to give up rice production for barley, which is used in whisky preparation, according to Bloomberg. Japan is the world's fourth-largest importer of barley and second-biggest buyer of malt, the barley product that is mashed and fermented to make whiskey and beer. Japanese imports of malt increased 20% last year and have almost quadrupled over the past decade, due to increasing demand for Japanese whiskies from abroad. Last year, the country's whisky exports increased about 11 times to around 10.4 billion yen (around $95 million) from the last decade. Many farmers are reportedly waiting to harvest a decent amount of barley this year.
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Global Rice Quotes April 21st, 2016 Long grain white rice - high quality Thailand 100% B grade 390-400 ↔ Vietnam 5% broken 370-380 ↑ India 5% broken 370-380 ↔ Pakistan 5% broken 350-360 ↑ Myanmar 5% broken 415-425 ↔ Cambodia 5% broken 445-455 ↔ U.S. 4% broken 425-435 ↔ Uruguay 5% broken 425-435 ↔ Argentina 5% broken 415-425 ↔ Long grain white rice - low quality Thailand 25% broken 365-375 ↔ Vietnam 25% broken 355-365 ↑ Pakistan 25% broken 315-325 ↔ Cambodia 25% broken 425-435 ↔ India 25% broken 330-340 ↑ U.S. 15% broken (sacked) 450-460 Long grain parboiled rice Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 385-395 Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd NQ India parboiled 5% broken stxd 335-345 U.S. parboiled 4% broken 480-490 Brazil parboiled 5% broken 445-455 Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔ Long grain fragrant rice Thailand Hommali 92% 665-675 ↔ Vietnam Jasmine 465-475 ↑ India basmati 2% broken NQ ↔ Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ ↔ Cambodia Phka Mails 760-770 ↔ Brokens Thailand A1 Super 340-350 ↔ Vietnam 100% broken 340-350 ↑ Pakistan 100% broken stxd 290-300 Cambodia A1 Super 345-355 ↔ India 100% broken stxd 275-285 ↔ Egypt medium grain brokens NQ ↔ U.S. pet food 315-325 ↔ Brazil half grain 300-310 ↔ All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com
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Oryza CBOT Rough Rice Futures Recap Chicago Rough Rice Futures Rally Slows as Market Closes off of Session Highs; Wheat and Corn Trade Lower despite Continued Strength in Soy Chicago rough rice futures for May delivery settled 1.5 cents were cwt (about $0.33 per ton) higher at $10.665 per cwt (about $235 per ton). The other grains finished the day with mixed results; Soybeans closed about 0.8% higher at $10.2750 per bushel; wheat finished about 1.7% lower at $5.0350 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 2.5% lower at $3.8975 per bushel. U.S. stocks traded mostly lower Thursday, with telecoms leading declines amid the latest batch of earnings. On Wednesday, the Dow closed at its highest since July 20, 2015, while the S&P 500 closed at its highest since Dec. 1. In U.S. economic news, the Philly Fed Index was minus 1.6 in April. Weekly jobless claims came in at 247,000, the lowest since 1973. Oil held about 1.5% lower in midday trade, pressured by some strength in the dollar and the disappointing Philly Fed read. European stocks were mixed after the European Central Bank kept rates unchanged and ECB President Mario Draghi said he expects rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period, according to Dow Jones. The STOXX Europe 600 Bank index traded more than 1% higher. The STOXX Europe 600 Bank index traded more than 1% higher. Asian stocks closed mostly higher, with the Nikkei 225 up 2.7%. The Shanghai composite closed about two-thirds of a percent lower. In midday trade, the Dow Jones industrial average declined 53 points, or 0.30%, to 18,043. The S&P 500 declined 5 points, or 0.22%, to 2,097, with telecommunications leading five sectors lower and health care the top gainer. The Nasdaq composite rose 1 point, or 0.02%, to 4,949. Gold is seen trading about 0.2% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 1.8% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.1% higher at about 1:00pm Chicago time. Wednesday, there were 2,047 contracts traded, up from 1,501 contracts traded on Tuesday. Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Wednesday decreased by 102 contracts to 11,927.
High Temperatures Likely to Impact Rabi Rice Crop in India's Eastern States Apr 21, 2016 High temperatures are said to impact the late Rabi rice crop (November - May) in India's eastern states Odisha and West Bengal, according to the Economic Times."High Temperature affects the pollination
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stage of the paddy crop. In early Rabi, pollination is over. May be in some cases in late variety, paddy pollination may get disturbed due to high temperature. If the temperature is above 37 degree during pollination, then the process gets affected, said the Director at the Odisha-based Central Rice Research Institute (CRRI).He noted that if the temperature is high during the ripening stage, 'packing of starch' in the grain gets affected and it develops chalkiness and thereby affecting the quality of the grains. However, productivity won't be affected, he said.Scientists noted that temperature between 22-31 degrees is ideal for growth of rice plants.Odisha, West Bengal and parts of Assam produce about 5.5 million tons of rice from the Rabi rice crop.The government of India forecasts India's 2015-16 (July - June) milled rice output to decline about 2% to around 103.61 million tons from around 105.48 million tons in 2014-15. Output from the kharif rice crop (July - December) is estimated at around 90.59 million tons, down about 1% from last year's 91.39 million tons. Output from the smaller rabi rice crop (November - May) is estimated to decline about 7.5% to around 13.02 million tons in 2015-16 from around 14.09 million tons last year.
Asia Rice Sellers Increase Their Quotes Today Apr 21, 2016 Thailand rice sellers increased their quotes for parboiled rice by about $5 per ton to around $385$395 per ton today. Vietnam rice sellers increased their quotes for 5% broken rice, 25% broken rice, Jasmine rice and 100% broken rice by about $5 per ton each to around $370-$380 per ton, $355-$365 per ton, $465-$475 per ton and $340-$350 per ton respectively. India rice sellers increased their quotes for 25% broken rice by about $5 per ton each to around $330-$340 per ton. Pakistan rice sellers increased their quotes for 5% broken rice by about $5 per ton to around $350-$360 per ton. 5% Broken Rice Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $380 - $390 per ton, about $10 per ton premium on Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $370 - $380 per ton. India 5% rice is indicated at around $370 - $380 per ton, about $20 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $350 - $360 per ton. 25% Broken Rice Thailand 25% rice is indicated at around $365 - $375 per ton, about $10 per ton premium on Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $355- $365 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around $330- $340 per ton, about $15 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $315 - $325 per ton. Parboiled Rice Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $385 - $395 per ton. India parboiled rice is indicated at around $335 - $345 per ton, about $70 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice last shown at around $405 - $415 per ton. 100% Broken Rice
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Thailand broken rice, A1 Super is indicated at around $340 - $350 per ton, on par with Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $340 - $350 per ton. India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $275 - $285 per ton, about $15 per ton discount to Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around $290 $300 per ton.
ORYZA US ROUGH RICE RECAP PRICES HOLD Steady with Muted Trade The U.S. cash market was unchanged today with both bids and offers holding steady as the plantings progress. Analysts note that at this point most farmers with old crop left to sell are content to wait as long as they can for prices to improve; however, buyers insist that without greater export demand farmer price ideas will remain unrealistic. In the meantime, the USDA reported that cumulative net export sales for the week that ended on April 14, totaled 121,300 tons, a considerable increase from the previous week and the prior 4week average. Increases were reported for the following destinations: 90,000 tons to Iraq, 10,600 tons to Mexico, 6,700 tons to Canada, 4,600 tons to Jordan, and 3,000 tons to unknown destinations. U.S. rice exporters shipped 49,300 tons, a decrease of 55% from last week and 38% lower than the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for the following destinations: 14,000 tons to Haiti, 12,900 tons to Japan, 8,500 tons to Mexico, 6,800 tons to South Korea, and 2,500 tons to Canada.
ORYZA News have been published with permission of ORYZA.com with thanks
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