April 20, 2015
Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com
Volume 5, Issue I Daily Exclusive
ORYZA Rice Newsletter
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India 2014-15 Rabi Rice Planting Reaches 4.056 Million Hectares as of April 17, 2015; Down 7% from Last Year Apr 17, 2015
Planting for India 2014-15 rabi (secondary) rice crop (November - May) has reached around 4.056 million hectares as of April 17, 2015; down about 7% from around 4.355 million hectares planted during the same period last year, according to preliminary data released by the Indian Agriculture Ministry. Rabi rice acreage remained unchanged from the week-ended April 10,
2015.The decline is reportedly due to untimely rains in some part of the rabi rice growing areas.The government of India, in its second advance estimates for major crops, has estimated India's rice production for 2014-15 marketing year (October 2014 - September 2015) at around 103.04 million tons, down about 3% from an estimated 106.65 million tons in 2013-14, according to a statement from the Agriculture Ministry. It estimates around 88.02 million tons from kharif rice crop and around 15.02 million tons from rabi rice crop. 2
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Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Finish the Week Sharply Lower as Market Fails to Spark Buying Interest Apr 17, 2015
Chicago rough rice futures for May delivery settled 6 cents per cwt (about $1 per ton) lower at $9.905 per cwt (about $218 per ton). The other grains finished the day flat to higher; Soybeans closed about 0.3% higher at $9.6875 per bushel; wheat finished unchanged at $4.9450 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 0.9% higher at $3.7975 per bushel.U.S. stocks traded sharply lower on Friday, following a global decline in equities on renewed Greece concerns and new Chinese trading regulations. The major averages had their worst day since March 25. The Dow Jones industrial average plunged more than 300 points to trade negative for the year. European stock indices ended sharply lower on Friday, following a selloff in Chinese futures over news of coming government regulation to expand short-selling and limit over-the-counter margin trading. Focus for European markets has been on Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis' visit to meet IMF officials, as investors become increasingly nervous about the funding crisis in Greece. The euro traded just below $1.08, near highs for the week. The S&P 500 fell below its 50-day moving average of 2,085.02. The Dow also fell below its 50-day moving average. Futures held lower but above morning lows after the consumer price index showed an increase of 0.2% in March, below expectations of 0.3%. However, the figure marked the second-straight month of gains and matched February's 0.2% gain. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, came in slightly above expectations at 0.2%, the same level as in February. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded down 282 points, or 1.55%, at 17,825. The S&P 500 traded down 24 points, or 1.13%, at 2,081, with consumer discretionary leading all ten sectors lower. The Nasdaq traded down 76 points, or 1.52%, at 4,931. Gold is trading about 0.4% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 1.8% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.1% higher at about 1:15pm Chicago time.Thursday, there were 1,858 contracts traded, up from 1,516 contracts traded on Wednesday. Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Thursday increased by 201 contracts to 11,215.
Mauritania Achieves 86% Rice-Sufficiency in 2014 3
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Mauritania has achieved 86% self-sufficiency in rice production in 2014, according to Bloomberg.The North-West African nation was only 35% self-sufficient in rice production in 2009. The government has achieved an increase in rice production through a consistent increase in rice area since 2009. It increased paddy rice area to around 51,000 hectares from around 18,000 hectares in 2009, according to the Agriculture Minister. Mauritania produced around 202,000 tons of rice in 2013-14.The country's rice area is estimated at around 50,000 hectares in 2015. Earlier, the Agriculture Minister noted that the government is expecting production in 2014-15 to be sufficient to meet 90% of the country's rice consumption needs. He has also called on the local businessmen to in vest in the country's rice sector. Mauritania is a net importer of rice. It produces only 50% of the annual consumption needs and imports the rest. USDA estimates the North-west African nation to produce around 215,000 tons of rice, basis paddy (around 129,000 tons, basis milled), and import around 110,000 tons of rice, basis milled, in MY 2014-15 (October - September).
Pakistan Millers Seek New Rice Export Policy Apr 17, 2015
Pakistan rice millers are urging the government to announce new rice export policy to help them avoid huge losses due to low rice prices, according to local sources.Rice mill owners of Jhang, 4
Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com Layyah, Chiniot and Toba Tek Singh districts participated in a rally and staged a sit-in protesting low prices of rice. They told local sources that the government has been indifferent to rice mill owners' problems. They demanded the government to come up with a new rice export policy that addresses all the problems of rice millers and also announce subsidies to rice production. They also threatened
that if the government did not heed to their demands, they would extend the protests to other cities as well.Pakistan rice exporters have also been constantly complaining that lack of proper infrastructure facilities and tax sops are reducing the competitiveness of Pakistan rice producers and exporters. Export prices of Pakistan 5% rice currently stand at around $380 per ton compared to around $375 per ton, $375 per ton and $360 per ton of India 5% rice, Thai 5% rice and Viet 5% rice respectively. Pakistan exported around 3.16 million tons of rice in the fiscal year 2013-14 (July 2013 - June 2014). The South Asian country exported Pakistan has exported around 2.62 million tons of rice (around 350,914 tons of basmati and around 2.27 million tons of non-basmati) in the first eight months of FY 2014-15 (July 2014 - June 2015), slightly down from around 2.63 million tons (around 418,502 tons of basmati and around 2.21 million tons of non-basmati) exported during the same period in FY 2013-14.USDA estimates Pakistan to produce about 6.7 million tons of rice, basis milled, and export around 3.9 million tons in MY 2013-14 (November 2013 – October 2014).
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Panama Tenders to Buy 9,706 Tons of Rice Apr 17, 2015
The government of Panama is planning to hold a tender for buying around 214,000 CWT (around 9,706 tons) of rice for delivery between April 24 - June 30, 2015, according to Prensa.com.The imports attract a duty of only 3% compared to normal 40% duty. According to the Committee on Commodity Exchanges (Conabolpro), businesses interested in importing rice at low import duty must submit a registration form to the Secretariat of the Commission for Duty Free Quota Licensing. The auction will be conducted on April 23, 2015.Panama's rice production in 2014-15 is likely to decline due to a reduction of about 25% in paddy rice area to around 50,000 hectares from around 50,000 hectares last year.USDA estimates Panama to produce 150,000 tons of milled rice and import around 100,000 tons in MY 2014-15 (October - September) to meet a consumption demand of around 250,000 tons.
Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Fall to New Lows as Market Lacks Fundamental Support and Technicals Trigger Selling Apr 17, 2015
Chicago rough rice futures for May delivery are currently noted 12.5 cents per cwt (about $3 per ton) lower at $9.840 per cwt (about $217 per ton) during early floor trading in Chicago. The other grains are seen trading mixed: soybeans are currently seen about 0.2% lower, wheat is listed unchanged and corn is currently noted 0.1% lower.U.S. stocks opened sharply lower on Friday, following a global decline in equities on renewed Greece concerns and new Chinese
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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com trading regulations, amid U.S. inflation and consumer data. Major European stock indices were down about one percent or more, following a selloff in Chinese futures over news of coming government regulation to expand short-selling and limit over-the-counter margin trading. Focus for European markets has been on Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis' visit to meet IMF officials, as investors become increasingly nervous about the funding crisis in Greece. Futures held lower but above morning lows after the consumer price index showed an increase of 0.2% in March, below expectations of 0.3%.However, the figure marked the second-straight month of gains and matched February's 0.2% gain. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, came in slightly above expectations at 0.2%, the same level as in February. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded down 154 points, or 0.85%, at 17,952. The S&P 500 traded down 12 points, or 0.57%, at 2,092, with energy leading all sectors except utilities lower. The Nasdaq traded down 35 points, or 0.68%, at 4,973. Gold is currently trading about 0.2% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 1.3% lower, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.3% higher at 9:00am Chicago time.
South Korea's Rice Production May Decline by a Quarter by 2050 Due to Global Warming, Say Researchers Apr 17, 2015
Researchers at the Korea Rural Economic Institute has predicted that South Korea's rice production is likely to reduce by about a one million tons or about 24% by 2050 due to the effects of global warming, according to local sources.They noted that the amount of arable land in the country has been decreasing and is likely to decline further due to climate change. The Korea Meteorological Administration also confirmed that temperature in the country will increase significantly during the period leading to drying of the fertile land required for rice farming.
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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com The Institute expects rice-sufficiency of the country could fall to less than 50% by 2050. Currently, South Korea is over 80% self-sufficient in rice production.In order to prepare for the scenario, the Institute has recommended investment in requisite agriculture infrastructure and development of climate smart rice varieties. It also advised the government to educate farmers regarding use of the agricultural infrastructure and newer rice varieties. USDA estimates South Korea's milled rice production at around 4.24 million tons in MY 201415 (November - October), slightly up from an estimated 4.23 million tons in MY 2013-14. It estimates South Korea to import around 410,000 tons of rice in MY 2014-15, up about 31% from 313,000 tons imported in MY 2013-14. USDA estimates South Korea’s 2014-15 domestic consumption for rice to decline to around 4.45 million tons from around 4.46 million tons in 2013-14.
Tanzania Rice Farmers Achieve Higher Yields with SRI Farming Apr 17, 2015
Farmers in Tanzania's Mbeya Irrigation Zone have achieved two times higher yields with the Systematic Rice Intensification (SRI) farming technique, according to local sources.Farmers in the two irrigation schemes - Mbuyuni Kimani and Magozi - of the Mbeya Irrigation Zone who were trained in the technique told local sources that the SRI method is useful in doubling their yields, saving water and is also economically viable. The Secretary of the Mbuyuni Kimani irrigation scheme noted that the method was introduced in around 2,000 hectares and around 3,020 small farmers are being benefited. He added that more farmers will be trained in the method and adoption of this method will change the living standards of farmers in this Irrigation Zone. He noted that with the SRI method, farmers have increased their yields from four tons per hectare to nine tons per hectare.The Uyole Agriculture Research Institute has provided training to farmers in SRI method in five regions of Mbeya, Ruvuma, Iringa, Njombe, Rukwa and Katavi.SRI is a low water, labor intensive, organic method of rice farming. In the SRI system, only a single seedling, which can yield 200 seeds per panicle, is used unlike a cluster of seedlings used in traditional farming system.
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Sri Lankan Rice Farmers Urged to Adopt Flexible Planting Techniques to Combat Weather Changes
Apr 17, 2015
Officials at the Department of Agriculture have urged the rice farmers to adopt flexible planting techniques in order to mitigate the impact of fluctuating weather patterns such as alternating floods and drought, according to local sources.The change in the weather patterns has been quite visible in last five years. Sri Lanka has been witnessing alternating floods and drought since 2012. The South Asian nation experience drought in 2012, floods in 2013, drought and flooding in 2014. A World Food Programme (WFP) rapid assessment report released in January this year confirmed that farmers in affected areas had built up huge levels of debts due to these changing weather patterns.
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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com The Chief Climatologist at the Department noted that farmers need to be more proactive and quick to change their planting patterns depending on the existing weather conditions. He noted that when there were early indications of drought, the Department suggested the farmers to shift from planting rice to other drought-resistant crops such as bananas, chillies and maize. However, farmers have not heeded to the Department's suggestions and planted rice in around 650,000 hectares during the main season, he added. A prolonged drought brought huge losses to farmers as they could harvest only 520,000 hectares, he said. Agriculture and disaster experts noted that Sri Lankan farmers rely in traditional farming methods and do not have proper understanding of changing weather patterns. The Assistant Director at the government's warned that if farmers do not heed to information about changing weather patterns, they will have to bear irreversible losses. In a February report, the UN's Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) forecasted Sri Lanka's total paddy at around 4.1 million tons in 2015 (around 2.7 million tons, basis milled), up about 18% from around 3.5 million tons (around 2.3 million tons, basis milled) produced in 2014. According to the FAO, in 2014, Sri Lanka registered its lowest paddy production since 2010 due to the prolonged drought conditions. The FAO estimated Sri Lanka's 2015 rice imports to be lower than estimated 520,000 tons in 2014 due to an expected recovery in this year's rice production. But they are likely to remain above the 2009-2013 average.USDA estimates Sri Lanka to produce around 2.85 million tons of rice, basis milled (around 4.19 million tons, basis paddy) and import around 120,000 tons in MY 2014-15 (October 2014 - September 2015).
TREA Forecasts Thailand Rice Exports to Decline 22% y/y to 8 Million Tons in 2015 Apr 17, 2015
The Thai Rice Exporters Association (TREA) has estimated Thailand's rice exports to decline about 22-27% to around 8-8.5 million tons due to falling global rice export prices and stiff with Vietnam, India and Pakistan.Local sources quoted the Director-General of the Foreign Trade Department as saying that factors such as global currency volatility, a stronger baht, lower oil prices and local economic conditions in importing countries have been affecting Thailand's rice exports for the last few days. Meanwhile, the Thai Commerce Ministry's decision to delay the third rice auction this year to avert downward pressure on already falling rice prices is also impacting Thai rice exports severely. Since the government has suspended direct sales thorough general auctions to ensure 10
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stable prices during the harvest season, exporters are now focusing on government-togovernment (G2G) contracts.Traders and exporters have warned the government to be cautious in offloading excess stocks into the market keeping view the current volatility in proces. The government is now carefully evaluating markets to decide over the timing for reopening bidding for its government stocks, according to local sources.The Thai government is currently holding over 17 million tons of rice in its stockpiles and is planning to sell around 10 million tons of rice this year and around 7 million tons next year. The Thai military government sold about 1.88 million tons of rice from six auctions raising around 25.58 billion baht (around $785.2 million) since it seized power in May 2014. Domestic prices of Thai 5% rice fell to around 11,969 (around $367) per ton in March 2015 compared to around 12,250 baht (around $376 per ton) last month, according to UN's Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Export prices of Thai 5% rice currently stands at around $387 per ton, down about 5.6% from around $410 per ton in the beginning of this year. Export prices of India 5% rice and Vietnam 5% rice declined about 3.8% and 5.2% to around $375 per ton and $363 per ton respectively since the beginning of this year.Separately, the National AntiCorruption Commission (NACC) is likely to file a civil lawsuit against 20 private companies 11
Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com allegedly involved in falsifying G2G rice deals under the previous government's rice pledging program
Vietnam Rice Quotes Mixed Today; Other Asia Rice Quotes Unchanged Apr 17, 2015
Vietnam rice sellers lowered their quotes for 5% broken rice by about $5 per ton to around $355$365 per ton and increased their quotes for Jasmine rice by about $5 per ton to around $480$490 per ton today. Other Asia rice quotes are unchanged today. 5% Broken Rice Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $380 - $390 per ton about a $25 per ton premium on Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $355 - $365 per ton, down about $5 per ton from yesterday. India 5% rice is indicated at around $370 - $380 per ton, about a $5 per ton discount to Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $375 - $385 per ton. 25% Broken Rice Thailand 25% rice is shown at around $355 - $365 per ton, about a $20 per ton premium on Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $335- $345 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around $345 - $355, about a $15 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $330 - $340 per ton. Parboiled Rice Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $380 - $390 per ton. India parboiled rice is indicated at around $365 - $375 per ton, about a $15 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice shown at around $380 - $390 per ton. 100% Broken Rice Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is indicated at around $320 - $330 per ton, about a $10 per ton premium on Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $310 - $320 per ton. India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $275 - $285 per ton, about a $10 per ton discount to Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around $285 - $295 per ton. 12
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Weekly Recap: Oryza White Rice Index Hits New Low Apr 17, 2015
The Oryza White Rice Index (WRI), a weighted average of global white rice export quotes, ended the week at about $410 per ton, down about $3 per ton from a week ago, down about $6 per ton from a month ago and down about $42 per ton from a year ago. The USDA forecasts 2014-15 global milled rice production at 474.6 million tons, down slightly from the previous year. The USDA forecasts 2015 global rice trade at 42.3 million tons, down 1.4% from 2014’s trade. Thailand Thailand 5% broken rice is today shown at about $385 per ton, down about $5 per ton from a week and a month ago, and unchanged from a year ago. The Thai Rice Exporters Association (TREA) has estimated Thailand's rice exports to decline about 22-27% to around 8-8.5 million tons due to falling global rice export prices and stiff with Vietnam, India and Pakistan. Domestic prices of Thai 5% rice fell to around 11,969 (around $367) per ton in March 2015 compared to around 12,250 baht (around $376 per ton) last month. Separately, the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) is likely to file a civil lawsuit against 20 private companies allegedly involved in falsifying G2G rice deals under the previous government's rice pledging program. Experts say that Japan may reduce rice purchases from Thailand if the Trans-Pacific Partnership with the U.S. materializes. Vietnam Vietnam 5% broken rice is today shown at about $360 per ton, down about $5 per ton from a week ago, down about $10 per ton from a month ago and down about $25 per ton from a year ago. Vietnam has exported about 182,400 tons of rice in February, down about 43% from January and down about 45% from the same period last year. 13
Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com Vietnam enterprises have bought about 99.4% or 994,294 tons of the targeted one-million tons of winter-spring rice under the government-approved stock piling plan from March 1-April 13. The scheme is expected to conclude this week. India India 5% broken rice is today shown at about $375 per ton, down about $5 per ton from a week ago, down about $20 per ton from a month ago and down about $55 per ton from a year ago. The UN’s FAO forecasts India’s 2015 rice exports to decline about 18% from last year to 9.3 million tons, due to a lower harvest from the 2014 kharif rice crop (June-December). The Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices has advised the government to increase the minimum support price for common grade paddy by about 3.6% or Rs.50 per quintal (about $8 per ton) for the 2015-16 (July-June) crop season. The first weekly auction for rice under the Open Market Sale Scheme last week received lukewarm responses from traders and private purchasers due to high prices. Planting for India 2014-15 rabi (secondary) rice crop (November - May) has reached around 4.056 million hectares as of April 17, 2015; down about 7% from around 4.355 million hectares planted during the same period last year, according to preliminary data released by the Indian Agriculture Ministry. Rabi rice acreage remained unchanged from the week-ended April 10, 2015. The Indian Council of Agricultural Research plans to develop two nutrient-rich rice varieties – zinc-rich and protein-rich. India’s southern state of Kerala has seen an increase in the rice production in the kharif season (June-October) because of better management of under- and un-utilized areas compared to earlier years. Most recent data suggest the state has seen an increase of 14.32% from last year in total rice production. On the other hand, rice production in the southern state Telangana (called “the rice bowl”) has seen substantial decline for paddy production this Rabi season, due to factors such as drought, groundwater depletion, and insufficient inflows. Experts warn that the government’s decision to end the levy rice procurement system from the 2015-16 kharif marketing season (October-September) will likely has a significant negative impact on rice farmers and consumers. 14
Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com Pakistan Pakistan 5% broken rice is today shown at about $380 per ton, up about $5 per ton from a week ago, up about $30 per ton from a month ago and down about $30 per ton from a year ago. Pakistan rice millers are urging the government to announce new rice export policy to help them avoid huge losses due to low rice prices, according to local sources. Pakistan rice exporters have also been constantly complaining that lack of proper infrastructure facilities and tax sops are reducing the competitiveness of Pakistan rice producers and exporters. Export prices of Pakistan 5% rice currently stand at around $380 per ton compared to around $375 per ton, $375 per ton and $360 per ton of India 5% rice, Thai 5% rice and Viet 5% rice respectively. The Rice Exporters Association of Pakistan (REAP) and the National Food Authority (NFA) of the Philippines have agreed to expedite and complete a rice agreement that was signed between the two agencies in 2013. Under the agreement, the NFA would import 50,000 tons of rice from Pakistan. Central & South America Brazil 5% broken rice is today shown at about $550 per ton, unchanged from a week and a month ago and down about $115 per ton from a year ago. Brazil has exported around 262,471 tons of rice in the first three months of 2015. The Brazilian paddy rice index maintained by CEPEA reached around 35.83 real per 50 kilograms as of April 10, 2015, down about 0.19% from around 35.9 real per 50 kilograms recorded on April 2, 2015. In terms of USD per ton, the index reached around $232.75 per ton on April 10, 2015, up about 2.06% from around $228.04 per ton recorded on April 2, 2015. Rice stocks in Brazil declined to about 134,255 tons in March, down slightly from February and down about 76% from March 2014. Conab has forecasted the country’s 2014-15 paddy rice production to be about 12.397 million tons, up about 2% from 2013-14. Five percent broken rice from Uruguay and Argentina is today shown at about $575 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, down about $5 per ton from a month ago and down about $50 per ton from a year ago. Argentina has exported around 12,762 tons of rice in January, down about 75% from the same period in 2014. The USDA Post estimates Venezuela’s rice imports in MY 2015-16 (April-March) will be around 500,000 tons, unchanged from the previous year.
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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com The USDA Post forecasts Dominican Republic’s MY 2015-16 paddy rice production at 776,000 tons, down about 2% from last year. U.S. U.S. 4% broken rice is today shown at about $485 per ton, unchanged from a week and a month ago and down about $100 per ton from a year ago. The U.S. cash market held mostly steady, despite declines in the futures market, but saw little trading this week. The cash market dropped some on Thursday after the USDA reported disappointing export sales. Chicago rough rice futures started a downward trend this week that led to a 56-week low. Chicago rough rice futures for May delivery started the week at $10.320 per cwt (about $228 per ton) but declined steadily, reaching a low on Friday of $9.755 per cwt (about $215 per ton) before closing the week at $9.920 per cwt (about $219 per ton). The government of Japan may propose to increase tariff-rice imports from the U.S. in efforts to conclude Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations that seem to have stalled. Other Markets Iraq has invited international tenders to purchase about 30,000 tons of rice from Uruguay, Argentina, Brazil, Vietnam, Cambodia, Pakistan, India, Thailand, and the U.S. with bids due April 26. Cambodia 5% broken rice is today shown at about $440 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, up about $10 per ton from a month ago and down about $5 per ton from a year ago. The USDA Post estimates Australia’s 2015-16 rice exports at 350,000 tons, down about 18% from last year, due to an expected increase in production. Rice stocks in the Philippines continued to decline for the third consecutive month, according to the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics. Total rice stocks as of March 1 reached about 2.27 million tons, down about 3.4% from February but up about 27.5% from the same period last year. Separately, the Philippines procurement agency is exploring ways to import rice from different countries, including Pakistan, Myanmar, and India, in order to diversify rice import origins which have been dominated by Vietnam and Thailand.
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A former Bulog official has urged that the government of Indonesia needs adequate farm land in order to achieve rice self-sufficiency over the next few years. A state purchasing agency in Syria has issued an international tender to purchase 6,360 tons of white rice.
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