Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter Page 1 of 11
September 1,2015
Vol 5.Issue XIII
\
Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter Contents are published with permission of ORYZA.com
Page 2 of 11
Drought Affects 185,451 Hectares of Paddy Fields in Cambodia Aug 31, 2015
Persisting dry conditions have affected rice seedlings in about 185,451 hectares of paddy fields in Cambodia, Khmer Times quoted a report by the Agriculture Minister. According to the report sent to the Prime Minister, about 9,240 hectares of paddy fields have been completely damaged. It noted that around 2.12 million hectares of rice fields, or about 82.7% of the total rice acreage of about 2.57 million hectares in the country. Planting usually begins in May, but it has been delayed due to early-season drought which led to lack of water in reservoirs.
Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter Contents are published with permission of ORYZA.com
Page 3 of 11
USDA estimates Cambodia's average yield per hectare at 2.43 tons. Based on these estimates, Cambodia may have about 450,000 tons of paddy affected by flooding this year. Cambodia produced around 9 million tons of paddy rice in 2014, according to the local sources. USDA estimates Cambodia MY 2014-15 (January 2015 - December 2015) paddy rice production at around 7.344 million tons (around 4.7 million tons, milled basis), slightly down from around 7.383 million tons (around 4.725 million tons, milled basis) in MY 2013-14. It estimates Cambodia to export around 1.1 million tons of rice in 2015, up about 10% from an estimated 1 million tons in 2014.
Global Rice Quotes August 31st, 2015
Long grain white rice - high quality Thailand 100% B grade 370-380
↔
Vietnam 5% broken
325-335
↔
India 5% broken
365-375
↑
Pakistan 5% broken
320-330
↔
Myanmar 5% broken
415-425
↑
Cambodia 5% broken
425-435
↔
U.S. 4% broken 485-495
↔
Uruguay 5% broken
535-545
↔
Argentina 5% broken
530-540
↔
Long grain white rice - low quality Thailand 25% broken
340-350
↔
Vietnam 25% broken
310-320
↔
Pakistan 25% broken
295-305
↔
Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter Contents are published with permission of ORYZA.com
Page 4 of 11 Cambodia 25% broken 410-420
↔
India 25% broken
340-350
↑
U.S. 15% broken
460-470
↔
Long grain parboiled rice Thailand parboiled 100% stxd
360-370
Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd
↔
415-425
↔
India parboiled 5% broken stxd 355-365
↔
U.S. parboiled 4% broken
570-580
↔
Brazil parboiled 5% broken
545-555
↔
Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ
↔
Long grain fragrant rice Thailand Hommali 92% 830-840
↓
Vietnam Jasmine
↔
455-465
India basmati 2% broken
NQ
↔
Pakistan basmati 2% broken
NQ
↔
Cambodia Phka Mails
830-840
↔
315-325
↔
Vietnam 100% broken 305-315
↔
Brokens Thailand A1 Super
Pakistan 100% broken stxd Cambodia A1 Super
280-290
355-365
↔
India 100% broken stxd 295-305
↔
Egypt medium grain brokens
NQ
↔
U.S. pet food
↔
335-345
↔
Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter Contents are published with permission of ORYZA.com
Page 5 of 11 Brazil half grain NQ
↔
All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com
India Average Wholesale Rice Prices Increase Slightly in August 2015 Aug 31, 2015
India average wholesale rice prices increased slightly in August 2015 after declining for last two months. The increase can be attributed to fears of a shortfall in production due to below-average monsoon rains. Average monthly wholesale rice prices in India increased to around Rs.2,663.31 per quintal in August 2015, slightly up from around Rs.2,650.04 per quintal in July 2015, and down about 18% from their year-ago levels of around Rs.3,254 per quintal. In terms of USD per ton, wholesale rice prices in India stand at around $403 per ton (using current exchange rates) in August 2015, down about 3% from around $416 per ton (using historical exchange rates) in July 2015, and down about 26% from around $542 per ton (using historical exchange rates) in August 2014.
Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter Contents are published with permission of ORYZA.com
Page 6 of 11
India’s average prices are likely to increase further if India’s production is dampened by a moderate drought-inducing El Nino weather pattern, which is expected to persist between July and September. Weather bureaus in Australia and Japan are forecasting an intensifying El Nino weather pattern, which is already causing dry conditions in South East Asian countries, including Thailand, North Korea, Indonesia and the Philippines. The government of India is monitoring the impact of El Nino on monsoon rains in the country, which are expected to be about 16% below normal during the second half (August-September) of the monsoon season (June-September). The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts a deficit of over 10% in September rainfall. However, below-average rains have so far not affected this year's kharif rice planting operations. Total rice planted area stood at around 34.59 million hectares as of August 28, 2015, slightly up from around 34.55 million hectares planted during the same time last year. USDA estimates India's 2015-16 (October - September) production at around 104 million tons, up about 1.5% from an estimated 102.5 million tons in 2014-15. It estimates India's 2015 rice exports at around 10.2 million tons, slightly up from an estimated 10.15 million tons in 2014.
India Rice Sellers Increase Some of Their Quotes Today; Thailand Rice Sellers Lower Some of Their Quotes Aug 31, 2015
Thailand rice sellers lowered their quotes for Hommali rice by about $5 per ton to around $830$840 per ton today. India rice sellers increased their quotes for 5% broken rice and 25% broken rice by about $5 per ton each to around $365-$375 per ton and $340-$350 per ton respectively. Other Asia rice sellers kept their quotes mostly unchanged today. 5% Broken Rice Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $360 - $370 per ton, about $35 per ton premium on Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $325 - $335 per ton. India 5% rice is indicated at around $365 - $375 per ton, up about $5 per ton from Friday and about $45 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $320 - $330 per ton. 25% Broken Rice
Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter Contents are published with permission of ORYZA.com
Page 7 of 11
Thailand 25% rice is shown at around $340 - $350 per ton, about $30 per ton premium on Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $310- $320 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around $340 - $350 per ton, up about $5 per ton from yesterday and about $45 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $295 - $305 per ton. Parboiled Rice Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $360 - $370 per ton. India parboiled rice is indicated at around $355- $365 per ton, about $60 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice last shown at around $415 - $425 per ton.
100% Broken Rice Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is indicated at around $315 - $325 per ton, about $10 per ton from premium on Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $305 - $315 per ton. India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $295 - $305 per ton, about $15 per ton premium on Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around $280 - $290 per ton.
Thai Supreme Court Rejects Former Premier's Pleas in Rice Pledging Case Aug 31, 2015
Thailand's Supreme Court has rejected the former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra's plea to allow the trial to be taken up by the Administrative Court as the case was not within jurisdiction of the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Political Office Holders , according to local sources. The Court also denied her plea to reject additional documented evidence from 23 witnesses submitted by the prosecutors. The nine judge panel headed by the Supreme Court's Deputy President denied to transfer the case to Administrative court on grounds that the ongoing trial against the former Prime Minister is a criminal case and the Administrative court is not authorized to deal with criminal cases. It also rejected the other pleas saying it has every right to seek truth by summoning and questioning more witnesses. The court adjourned the hearing to October 29. 2015.
Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter Contents are published with permission of ORYZA.com
Page 8 of 11
The former Prime Minister is facing charges of dereliction of duty in preventing multi-billion dollar graft in running the controversial rice pledging scheme introduced by her government in October 2011. The scheme is estimated to have caused losses to the extent of about 500 billion baht (around $14 billion) to the government. If proved guilty in the present case, she may have to face imprisonment for 10 years, according to local sources.
Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Cash Offers Firm as Sellers Wait To See Yield Results Aug 31, 2015
The U.S. cash market was firmer today as many sellers took to the sidelines as the futures market rallied. Analysts not that sellers are taking a wait and see approach as they would like to see how their crop yields before they make any pricing decisions. In the meantime, the USDA estimates that as of August 30th, 97% of the crop had headed which was the same percentage as this time last year and 2% ahead of the previous 5-year average. As
Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter Contents are published with permission of ORYZA.com
Page 9 of 11
of now, the USDA estimates that 99% of the rice crop in Arkansas had headed compared to , 90% in California, 100% in Louisiana, 98% in Mississippi, 90% in Missouri, and 100% in Texas. The USDA estimates that 26% of the crop had harvest which was 10% ahead of this time last year and 1% ahead of the previous 5-year average. As of now, the USDA estimates that 16% of the rice crop in Arkansas had been harvested compared to , 0% in California, 84% in Louisiana, 22% in Mississippi, 0% in Missouri, and 75% in Texas. The USDA estimates that 66% percent of the crop is in good to excellent condition, which was unchanged from last week week and 8% worse than this time last year. As of now, the USDA estimates that 67% of the crop in Arkansas is in good to excellent condition compared to, 70% in California, 61% in Louisiana, 71% in Mississippi, 63% in Missouri, and 52% in Texas.
Nepal's Rice Import Value Surges Sharply in FY 2014-15, Says NRB Aug 31, 2015
Nepal has imported rice worth Rs.24.75 billion (around $231 million) in the fiscal year 2014-15 (August - July), up about 43% from around Rs.17.26 billion (around $161 million) during FY 2013-14, local sources quoted the Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB). The increase in imports is attributed to poor summer harvests. The country's paddy output has declined by about 258,435 tons or about 5.1% to around 4.78 million tons in this fiscal year due to a late monsoon and untimely rainfall, according to the Agriculture Ministry. Most of the imports are from India, according to local sources. Agriculture experts told local sources that the Agriculture Ministry's plan to reduce rice import bill by about two-thirds to about Rs.6 billion (around $56 million) in FY 2014-15 has miserably failed. They said a drop in paddy production has put pressure on imports and is likely to continue in FY 2015-16 as well. “The country is also likely to see significant imports of rice this fiscal as droughts in most of the Tarai districts, the country’s food basket, have affected paddy transplantation,” an agro expert and scientist was quoted. Based on the current paddy transplantation estimates, he noted that that rice import value could cross Rs.40 billion (around $373 million) next fiscal year.
Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter Contents are published with permission of ORYZA.com
Page 10 of 11
The Agriculture Ministry has also estimated that the country would lose paddy worth Rs.25 billion (around $233 million) this year, the expert added. He noted that the government should give more importance to paddy production as it contributes to about Rs.100 billion (around $932 million) to the country's GDP. He suggested that the government come up with a long-term plan to avoid the impact of perennial droughts or floods on the country's paddy production. USDA estimates Nepal to import around 400,000 tons of rice in 2015. It estimates Nepal’s MY 2014-15 (October 2014 – September 2015) paddy rice production to decline to about 4.655 million tons (around 3.1 million tons, basis milled) from an estimated 5 million tons (around 3.36 million tons, basis milled) in MY 2013-14.
Thailand Plans to Sell 732,806 Tons of Stockpiled Rice on September 8, 2015 Aug 31, 2015
Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter Contents are published with permission of ORYZA.com
Page 11 of 11
The government of Thailand is planning to auction about 732,806 tons of stockpiled rice on September 8, 2015, Reuters quoted a statement from the Commerce Ministry.Qualified bidders' names will reportedly be announced on September 7, according to the statement.This is the sixth auction this year and tenth one after the military government took over in May 2014.The government sold around 4.31 million tons of rice raising around 46.3 billion baht (around $1.3 billion) from the first nine auctions. The Thai military government is still holding about 14 million tons of stocks accumulated from the rice pledging scheme introduced by the previous government.
USDA Post Estimates Thailand Milled Rice Production to Decline 7% y/y in MY 2015-16 Due to Drought Aug 31, 2015
USDA Post forecasts Thailand's milled rice production in MY 2015-16 (January - December 2015) at around 18 million tons (around 27.3 million tons, basis paddy), down about 7% from around 19.35 million tons (around 29.35 million tons, basic paddy) in MY 2014-15 due to drought conditions that had impacted planting operations of the country's main season rice crop.Planting for the 2015-16 main rice crop planting is complete in major growing areas. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's Disaster Center report, around one million rai (around 160,000 hectares) of main rice crop had been affected by drought, particularly in the lower northern region and central plains. The Post reports that reservoir levels in major dams (that supply irrigation for main-crop rice in the northern and central plain regions) in August 2015 are lower than the previous year due to lack of rain. The Thai Meteorological Department (TMD) reported that cumulative rainfall was about 15% below normal as of August 19. The TMD expects slightly below normal rainfall between August and October. This is likely to result in lower reservoirs for next dry-season crop in 2016.In its July report, the Post estimated Thailand's 2015 rice exports at around 10 million tons against the earlier estimated 11 million tons due to a competition from Vietnam especially for 5% broken white rice.
Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter Contents are published with permission of ORYZA.com