April 15, 2015
Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com
Volume 5, Issue I Daily Exclusive
ORYZA Rice Newsletter
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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com
Global Rice Quotes April 15th, 2015 Long grain white rice - high quality Thailand 100% B grade 395-405 Vietnam 5% broken 360-370 India 5% broken 370-380 Pakistan 5% broken 375-385 Myanmar 5% broken 410-420 Cambodia 5% broken 435-445 U.S. 4% broken 480-490 ↔ Uruguay 5% broken 575-585 Argentina 5% broken 565-575 Long grain white rice - low quality Thailand 25% broken 355-365 Vietnam 25% broken 335-345 Pakistan 25% broken 330-340 Cambodia 25% broken 410-420 India 25% broken 345-355 U.S. 15% broken 470-480
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↔ ↓ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔
Long grain parboiled rice Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 385-395 ↔ Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 380-390 India parboiled 5% broken stxd 365-375 ↔ U.S. parboiled 4% broken 555-565 ↔ Brazil parboiled 5% broken 570-580 ↔ Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔ Long grain fragrant rice Thailand Hommali 92% 890-900 Vietnam Jasmine 475-485 India basmati 2% broken NQ Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ Cambodia Phka Mails 810-820 Brokens
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↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔
Thailand A1 Super 320-330 ↔ Vietnam 100% broken 310-320 ↔ Pakistan 100% broken stxd 285-295 Cambodia A1 Super 345-355 ↔ India 100% broken stxd 275-285 ↔ Egypt medium grain brokens NQ ↔
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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com U.S. pet food 370-380 ↔ Brazil half grain NQ ↔ All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com
Brazil Rice Stocks Decline Slightly in March 2015 Apr 14, 2015
Brazil rice stocks declined to around 134,255 tons in March 2015, slightly down from around 135,717 tons in February 2015 and down about 76% from around 558,690 tons in March 2014, according to the country's national grain supplying agency Conab.According to Conab, rice stocks with the Selling Option Contract of Agricultural Products (OPCAO) have declined to around 81,570 tons in March 2015, slightly down from around 81,671 tons in February 2015 and down about 76% from around 346,028 tons in March 2014. Rice stocks with Federal Government Acquisition (AGF) declined to around 52,213 tons down about 2% from around 53,193 tons in February 2015 and down about 75% from around 218,470 tons in March 2014. 3
Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com Rice stocks with farmers (Agricultural Familiar) stood at around 472 tons in March 2015, down 45% from around 853 tons in February 2015 and about 78% from around 2,192 tons in March 2014. CONAB has forecasted the country's 2014-15 paddy rice production at around 12.152 million tons (around 8.26 million tons, basis milled), slightly up from around 12.122 million tons (around 8.24 million tons, basis milled) in 2013-14. USDA estimates Brazil MY 2014-15 (April – March) paddy rice production at around 12.206 million tons (around 8.3 million tons, basis milled), unchanged from MY 2013-14.
USDA Forecasts 2015 Global Rice Trade at 42.3 Million Tons, Down 1.4% from 2014 Apr 14, 2015
In its April Rice Outlook report, USDA has forecasted 2015 global rice trade at around 42.3 million tons, down about 1.6% from an estimated 43 million tons last year, and slightly down from the previous month's forecast of around 42.5 million tons. USDA says the slight decline in global trade in 2015 is mainly due to smaller exportable supplies in India, which are fully not offset by expanded sales from Pakistan, Vietnam and the U.S.
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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com On the exports side, USDA lowered its estimates for Egypt and Japan but increased its projections for the U.S. On the imports side, USDA lowered its estimates for Indonesia, Mali, Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia and Yemen. It however, raised its estimates for the EU and U.S.For 2014, USDA lowered export forecasts for Japan and Pakistan. USDA has lowered import estimations for Brazil and Yemen.
Japan May Propose to Increase Tariff-Free Rice Imports from U.S. to Conclude TPP Talks Apr 14, 2015
The government of Japan is likely to propose to the U.S. about increasing tariff-free rice imports from the U.S. as part of efforts to push forward the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations that have been stalled due to a impasse between the U.S. and Japan over access to its farm markets, including rice, wheat, barley, beef, pork, dairy products, sugar and starch, according to the Bureau of National Affairs (BNA). While the exact quantum of increase in the U.S. imports is not known, an Agricultural and Resource Economics Professor at the University of Tokyo told BNA that Japan may propose to increase tariff-free purchases from the U.S. by about 100,000 tons annually.Japan has been keen on excluding rice from the TPP negotiations in order to protect local rice from foreign 5
Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com competition. The Japanese government has been struggling to keep Japanese rice competitive due to high production costs and declining consumption the country. Due to these reasons, Japan has been reluctant to heed to the U.S.' requests to include rice in the TPP. The U.S. has been urging Japan to include rice in TPP talks as Japan's stance to exclude rice from TPP would lower demand for U.S. rice in the Japanese market. However, in April 2014, the U.S. had agreed for Japan to keep rice out of TPP negotiations but had sought increased tariff-free rice imports from the U.S. Japan seems to have agreed to the U.S. requests to take forward the TPP talks. The Japanese Premier is likely to visit the U.S. shortly as part of efforts to conclude the TPP talks.Currently, Japan imports about 770,000 tons of rice under the annual minimum market access (MMA) quota as per the World Trade Organization (WTO) obligations. The rice imports above the MMA quota carry a prohibitive import tariff of around 778%.USDA estimates Japan to produce around 7.7 million tons of rice and import around 700,000 tons of rice in MY 2014-15 (November - October) to meet annual consumption needs of around 8.2 million tons.
USDA Post Estimates Venezuela to Import 500,000 Tons of Rice in MY 2015-16, Unchanged from Last Year Apr 14, 2015
USDA Post estimates Venezuela rice imports in MY 2015-16 (April - March) at around 500,000 tons, unchanged from MY 2014-15. The Post reports that due to Venezuelan price controls and exchange rate disparities, unofficial cross border trade with Colombia has been increasing. According to the Post, Venezuela exported around 200,000 tons of rice to Colombia in MY 2013 unofficially. The Post also expects Venezuela's rice imports from the U.S. to decline due to new and renewed agreements with Guyana and Suriname.The Post reports that the Venezuelan rice industry often faces higher production costs and low profits due to shortages of agrochemicals fertilizers and planting seeds. The Post estimates Venezuelan milled rice production to decline to around 375,000 tons in MY 2015-16, slightly down from around 380,000 tons in MY 2014-15 due to expected dry weather conditions. The Post expects paddy rice acreage during the MY 2015-16 to remain at last year's level of around 140,000 hectares due to government support in the form of increased subsidies
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and higher farm-gate prices.USDA Post estimates Venezuela rice consumption to increase to around 690,000 tons in MY 2015-16, slightly up from around 685,000 tons in MY 2014-15. Consumption has been increasing for the last couple of years due to an increase in population and sporadic shortages of other products.
Vietnam, India, Pakistan Rice Seller Increase Some of Their Quotes Today; Thailand Rice Quotes Unchanged Apr 14, 2015
Vietnam rice sellers increased their quotes for Jasmine rice by about $5 per ton to around $475 $485 per ton today. India rice sellers increased their quotes for parboiled rice by about $5 per ton to around $365 - $375 per ton. Pakistan rice sellers increased their quotes for 5% broken rice by about $15 per ton to around $375 - $385 per ton. Thailand rice sellers are out today due to national holiday.
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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com 5% Broken Rice Thailand 5% rice was last indicated at around $385 - $395 per ton, about a $25 per ton premium on Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $360 - $370 per ton. India 5% rice is indicated at around $370 - $380 per ton, about a $5 per ton discount to Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $375 $385 per ton, up about $5 per ton from yesterday. 25% Broken Rice Thailand 25% rice was last shown at around $355 - $365 per ton, about a $15 per ton premium on Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $340- $350 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around $345 - $355, about a $15 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $330 - $340 per ton. Parboiled Rice Thailand parboiled rice was last indicated at around $385 - $395 per ton. India parboiled rice is indicated at around $365 - $375 per ton, up about $5 per ton from yesterday and about a $15 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice shown at around $380 - $390 per ton. 100% Broken Rice Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, was last indicated at around $320 - $330 per ton, about a $10 per ton premium on Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $310 - $320 per ton. India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $275 - $285 per ton, about a $10 per ton discount to Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around $285 - $295 per ton.
Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Unchanged, Market Looks for Signs of Life Following Recent Decline Apr 14, 2015
Chicago rough rice futures for May delivery are currently noted 1.5 unchanged at $10.105 per cwt (about $223 per ton) ahead of floor trading in Chicago. The other grains are seen trading mostly higher overnight: soybeans are currently seen about 0.8% higher, wheat is listed about 0.2% lower and corn is currently noted about 0.1% lower.U.S. stock index futures indicated a flat
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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com to slightly lower open on Tuesday, as traders eyed major bank earnings and retail sale data. Futures initially edged lower after moderate data. Retail sales showed an increase of 0.9%, slightly below expectations of a 1.1% month-on-month increase in overall spending. However, the figure was the first gain since late last year. The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed an increase of 0.2% in March, in line with expectations and breaking four consecutive months of declines. While overall S&P 500 earnings are expected to be down by 2.9%, the profits of financial companies are expected to be 10.8% higher, according to Thomson Reuters. New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley will speak at 8:40 a.m. and Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota will speak at 8 p.m. Meanwhile in Europe, shares were lower in morning trade Tuesday, amid investor caution over a European Central Bank (ECB) meeting this week and the official start of the first-quarter earnings season. Gold is currently trading about 0.3% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 1.5% higher, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.8% lower at 9:00am Chicago time.
Azolla as ‘Green’ Nitrogen Can Enhance Rice Output Apr 14, 2015
Azolla, a freshwater floating fern, that carries a nitrogen-fixing cynobacterium (BGA) Anabeana Azollae, can be used in rice fields to increase the release of nitrogen into the soil more effectively and thereby increase rice production by over 50%.For growing rice paddies, around 5% of the nitrogen isolated by Azolla is readily available. The rest 95% stays in the Azolla biomass till the plant death. During the plant decomposition, the organic nitrogen is quickly mineralized and turns as ammonia, in turn, contributes as a biofertilizer for the growing rice paddies.Azolla is capable of growing profusely in shallow water system and produces large amount of biomass allowing for quicker growth. Within 3-4 days it doubles its biomass and fixes 40 to 60 nitrogen kg/hectare and contributes in a range of rice cultivation processes on the field such as nitrogen release into water, nitrogen incorporation into soil, as an intercrop, among others. The weeds are suppressed by the Azolla sheets in rice fields. Due to its floating nature, it does not compete with rice for space or light. Compared with chemical nitrogen fertilizers, it has positive implications on soil fertility through enhancing nitrogen, organic carbon, phosphorus, 9
Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com potassium, organic matter and other nutrients.Not all rice farmers are aware of the potential of this freshwater fern can do in a rice field for soil fertility and nitrogen supply. If extension and agricultural officials in various countries can provide field-level demonstrations, education and support activities, Azolla can play an important role in rice production without damaging the environment and with least costs. A mother nursery is maintained close to the paddy field for continuous supply during the cropping season.
Iraq Seeks to Purchase 30,000 Tons of Rice in International Tenders Apr 14, 2015
Iraq has invited international tenders to purchase about 30,000 tons of rice from Uruguay, Argentina, Brazil, Vietnam, Cambodia, Pakistan, India, Thailand and the U.S., Bloomberg quoted a statement from the Iraq's Trade Ministry.Last date for submitting bids is April 26, 2015 and offers remain valid till April 30, 2015.
Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap – Prices Steady as Little Trades; Iraq Issues New Tender Apr 14, 2015
The U.S. cash market was seen steady today as most sellers hold out for higher prices while most buyers remain hand to mouth expecting prices to continue to fall amid tepid demand.Meanwhile, the Iraqi Grain Board issued a tender for at least 30,000 tons of long grain white rice of either U.S., Uruguayan, Argentine, Brazilian, Vietnamese, Cambodian, Pakistani, Indian, or Thai origin. Offers need to be submitted no later than April 26th and must remain valid through April 30th.
Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Bounce Higher as Market Tests
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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com
Support at $10.000; Corn and Beans Find Support in Firmer Crude and Weaker Dollar
Apr 14, 2015
Chicago rough rice futures for May delivery settled 10.5 cents per cwt (about $2 per ton) higher at $10.210 per cwt (about $225 per ton). The other grains finished the day mostly higher; Soybeans closed about 1.2% higher at $9.6025 per bushel; wheat finished about 1.1% lower at $4.9700 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 0.8% higher at $3.7350 per bushel.U.S. stocks traded in a range on Tuesday as investors digested the first of the major earnings reports and moderate economic data. The Dow Jones industrial average and S&P 500 recovered from morning losses to hold higher as oil gains helped energy stocks.
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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com Crude oil gained 3 percent after a forecasted decline in U.S. shale output and continued tensions in Yemen. The energy sector rose more than 2% to lead gains in the S&P 500. Futures edged lower after morning economic reports. Retail sales showed an increase of 0.9%, slightly below expectations of a 1.1% month-on-month increase in overall spending. However, the figure was the first gain since late last year. The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed an increase of 0.2% in March, in line with expectations and breaking four consecutive months of declines. Business inventories came slightly above estimates, up 0.3% in February. While overall S&P 500 earnings are expected to be down by 2.9%, the profits of financial companies are expected to be 10.8% higher, according to Thomson Reuters. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 83 points, or 0.46%, at 18,059. The S&P 500 traded up 4 points, or 0.19%, at 2,096, with energy leading eight sectors higher and information technology and industrials the only laggards. The Nasdaq traded down 13 points, or 0.28%, at 4,974. Gold is trading about 0.5% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 3.1% higher, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.8% lower at about 1:15pm Chicago time.Monday, there were 1,736 contracts traded, down from 2,362 contracts traded on Friday. Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Monday increased by 91 contracts to 11,516.
Philippines Rice Stocks Continue to Decline for Third Consecutive Month Apr 14, 2015
The Philippines rice stocks have continued to decline for the third consecutive month in March 2015, according to the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS). The Philippines rice stocks have been declining since January 2015.Total rice stocks in the Philippines as of March 1, 2015 reached around 2.27 million tons, down about 3.4% from around 2.35 million tons recorded in February 2015, and up about 27.5% from around 1.78 million tons recorded during the same period last year. According to the BAS, household stocks (which account for about 42.8% of total rice stocks in the country) have reached around 970,000 tons as of March 1, 2015, up about 2% from year-ago levels of around 950,000 tons. Commercial warehouse rice stocks (which account for about 32.9% of total stocks) have reached around 740,000 tons as of March 1, 2015, up about 95% from their year-ago levels of around 380,000 tons. The rice stocks with the National Food Authority (NFA) (which account for 24.3% of total stocks) stood at around 550,000 tons, up about 20% from around 460,000 tons recorded in February 2014. Month-on-month, household rice stocks are down about 8%, commercial warehouse rice stocks are down about 4% and NFA rice stocks - in which about 96.2% are imported rice - are up about 4%, according to the BAS.The BAS says that the Philippines' rice stocks as of February 1, 2015 12
Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com are enough to last for 67 days (household stocks are enough for 29 days, commercial warehouses stocks are enough for 22days and stocks with NFA are enough for 16 days).In its latest paddy production estimates, the Philippines Statistics Authority (PSA) is estimating the Philippines to produce around 8.55 million tons of paddy rice in the first half-part (January - June) of 2015, up about 2.02% from around 8.38 million tons produced during the same period in 2014. The NFA has decided to import 500,000 tons of rice (200,000 tons from Thailand and 300,000 tons from Vietnam) under government-to-government deals in 2015 to ensure adequate stocks in the lean season (June – September). It imported more than 1.8 million tons of rice (including 1.5 million tons of 2014 imports and 300,000 tons of 2013 residual imports) in 2014 to replenish rice stocks and control price hikes.USDA estimates Philippines MY 2014-15 (July - June) paddy rice production at around 19.365 million tons (around 12.2 million tons, basis milled), up about 3% from around 18.822 million tons (around 11.86 million tons, basis milled) produced in the previous year.
USDA Forecasts 2014-15 Global Milled Rice Production at 474.6 Million Tons, Slightly Down from Previous Year Apr 14, 2015
In its April Rice Outlook report, USDA has forecasted 2014-15 global milled rice production at around 474.6 million tons, slightly down from an estimated 476.9 million tons in 2013-14, and slightly down from its last month's estimates of around 474.9 million tons. Most of this year's decline is due to expected decline in South Asia rice production, according to the U.S. agency. USDA estimates East Asia to harvest record rice crop in 2014-15, while it forecasts a little change in production levels of South America and Sub-Saharan Africa. In the latest report, USDA lowered its forecasts for Vietnam 2014-15 production to around 20.05 million tons due to lower expected output from the winter and spring crop. It also lowered its forecasts for Indonesia's 2014-15 production to around 36.3 million tons due to delay in planting of the first crop, which is expected to cause further delay in planting for second and third crops. USDA lowered its 2014-15 production forecasts for Colombia, Ecuador and Peru in South America. In Africa, the U.S. agency lowered its forecasts for Guinea, Liberia, Ivory Coast and Ghana. However, USDA says these downward revisions were partially offset by expected production increases in Pakistan, Egypt and Mali.
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USDA forecasts 2014-15 global rice acreage at around 159.6 million hectares, slightly down from last year's 161.2 million hectares, and unchanged from its previous months' forecasts due to an expected y/y decline in Indonesia, Vietnam and Sun-Saharan Africa rice acreage. It has forecasted the average global yield at 4.44 tons per hectare (on rough rice basis), up slightly from last year as well as last month's projections. USDA lowered its estimates 2014-15 global rice consumption and residual use to around 483 million tons, up about 2.9 million tons from last year, and down about 600,000 tons from an estimated 483.6 million tons last month. Major declines in consumption and residual use are expected in Indonesia and the U.S. The U.S. agency estimates 2014-15 global rice ending stocks at around 98.6 million tons, down about 8% from an estimated 106.4 million tons last year and down about 900,000 tons from last 14
Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com month's projection of about 99.5 million tons. USDA estimates lower ending stocks in India, Indonesia and Thailand but higher stocks in the Philippines and the U.S. It estimates 2014-15 global stocks-to-use ratio at 22.2%, up from last year's 22.1%.
Conab Estimates Brazil 2014-15 Paddy Rice Production at 12.397 Million Tons, Up 2% from Last Year Apr 14, 2015
Brazil’s National Grains Supply Company (Conab) has forecasted the country's 2014-15 paddy rice production at around 12.397 million tons (around 8.43 million tons, basis milled), up about 2% from around 12.121 million tons (around 8.24 million tons, basis milled) in 201314, and up 2% from its March forecast of around 12.151 million tons. Conab has estimated Brazil's 2014-15 paddy rice acreage at around 2.344 million hectares, down about 1.2% from around 2.373 million hectares in 2013-14. Paddy rice acreage in the key rice growing Centro-Sul (Center-South) region is projected at 1.553 million hectares in 2014-15, slightly down from around 1.565 million hectares in 2013-14. Rice acreage in the North/Northeast regions is estimated at around 790,700 hectares, down 2% from around 808,400 hectares in 2013-14. Average rice yield in Brazil in 2014-15 is projected at around 5.289 tons per hectare, up about 3.5% from around 5.108 tons per hectare recorded in the previous year.USDA estimates Brazil MY 2014-15 (April – March) paddy rice production at around 12.206 million tons (around 8.3 million tons, basis milled), unchanged from MY 2013-14. It estimates Brazil’s 2014-15 paddy rice acreage also to remain at last year's level of around 2.4 million hectares. USDA estimates Brazil to export around one million tons of rice and import around 790,000 tons of rice in 2015.
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