The Three Laws of Space Exploration A changing landscape
The assertion that the emergence of a profusion of unconventional space actors on the landscape is changing the way in which we manage space activities, is everything except new or debatable. Nor is it surprising to witness the change of paradigm in the way agencies and industries now manage launch and satellite procurement. In that sense, the USA has applied the same principle used in the past by their and several other governments: heavy investments by the public sector, followed by transitioning the knowhow and other assets to the private sector, with the aim of reaping the economic benefits from these early investments and generating new business models. In an overwhelmingly capitalistic environment, this model makes for the creation of new markets and generation of wealth. Only in regions of the globe where the mechanisms for facilitating the creation of new companies and their access to venture capital are insufficiently developed or hampered is this new model inexistent or, at best, embryonic. The colossal fortunes behind the two main US actors of the so-called “Space 2.0” sector, as well as the accumulated experience of many other companies in terms of the diversity of management approaches, are such that it is hard to imagine how the tremendous lagging behind of other countries can still be reduced in any significant manner, except perhaps where there is national will to do so. Indeed, India and China have started to support similar schemes, varying in structure and scope according to their regional specificities. In Europe, the industrial ecosystem that would become able to generate such alternative models is, at best, limited. As has been advocated and commented upon by many different stakeholders (scientists, lawyers, public, media), future sustainability of this new business model is however still far from being assured. It is not clear that, beyond the immediate use of Low-Earth Orbit for communication and internet, the business model of returning to the Moon, asteroids and Mars to establish bases, “live off the land” by exploiting local resources or even use these resources for Earth-based uses, has any demonstrated basis. However, whether these more distant business cases are simply pipe dreams borne out of the need to create motivating communication strategies, or whether they represent realistic plans for the exploitation of the solar system, it remains that the established presence of companies like SpaceX, OneWeb or Blue Origin have started to change the immediate environment of the Earth.