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STEEPLE Analysis

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COLUMBIA COLLEGE CHICAGO

STEEPLE ANALYSIS 2029 – WITH TREND VALIDATION

Original Team Insights + Research-Validated Additional Trends

December2025|13Trends(IntegrationTeam)|37Trends(30Team+7Research)|ValidationasIndicated

PART I. INTEGRATION TEAM STRATEGIC BACKDROP

FollowingcomprehensivereviewoftheSTEEPLEenvironmentalscanningresearch(seePartIIofthisdocument),ColumbiaCollegeChicago'sIntegration Teamidentified13prioritytrendsasthestrategicbackdropforinstitutionalplanning.Theseexecutive-prioritizedtrendsreflectinstitutionalknowledge andfrontlineoperationalexperiencethatwillguidescenariodevelopmentandstrategicdecision-making.

13 PRIORITY TRENDS FOR STRATEGIC PLANNING

1.CURRICULUM OBSOLESCENCE

2.HUNGERFOR ENGAGINGCONTEXT

•Alternativecredentialsandcredentialingcurriculaontherise

•Traditionaldegreestructureslosingrelevancetomarketneeds

•Newwaysofworkingemergingacrosscreativeindustries

•Tensionbetweenvocationalizationvs.liberalartsapproaches

•Changedriver:AIadoptionandperceptionofinevitability

✅VERIFIED: Deloitte 2025, HolonIQ research, U.S. Department of Labor data

✅VERIFIED: Chronicle of Higher Ed 2024, American Academy Arts & Sciences

3.RESPONSIVE REPRESENTATION

4.AFFORDABILITY OFCOLLEGEDEGREE

5.VALUE PROPOSITION(ROI)

6.PUBLIC PERCEPTIONOF HIGHERED

•CollegedemographicgrowthofLGBTQ+andminoritypopulations

•Needforauthenticinstitutionalresponsetochangingdemographics

•Costbarriersintensifyingacrossallstudentpopulations

•Financialaccessibilityascompetitivedifferentiator

•Studentsandfamiliesincreasinglyquestioningreturnoninvestment

•Needfordemonstrablecareerandlifeoutcomes

•Broadersocietalquestioningofhighereducation'seconomicvalue

•Reputationalchallengesforentiresector

��INSTITUTIONAL: Columbia-specific concern, limited sector-wide data

✅VERIFIED: BestColleges 2025, Federal loan data, focus groups

✅VERIFIED: National University 2025, focus group confirmation

✅VERIFIED: Deloitte 2025, institutional closure data

7.CREATIVECAREER PATHSHIFTS

8.DEGREE-CAREER DISASSOCIATION

•Creativeindustrycareertrajectorieschangingduetoautomation

•Gigeconomydominanceaffectingcreativeprofessionals

•Traditionalacademicprogramsmisalignedwithindustry requirements

•Gapbetweeneducationalpreparationandprofessionalpractice

��MIXED: General automation trends verified, creative-specific data limited

✅VERIFIED: Focus group evidence, relates to curriculum obsolescence

9.WRAPAROUND COSTSINCREASE

10.DECLINING COLLEGE POPULATION

11.INSTITUTIONAL CLOSURES

12.GENERATIONAL LEARNINGCHANGES

•Healthcare,mentalhealth,andstudentservicescostsescalating

•Institutionalburdenforcomprehensivestudentsupportexpanding

•Demographiccliffreducingtraditionalcollege-agecohort

•Competitionintensifyingforshrinkingapplicantpool

•Collegecampusclosuresacceleratingnationwide

•Sectorconsolidationcreatingsurvivalpressures

•Mentalhealthfactorsinfluencinglearningpreferences

•Academicpersistencechallengesduetoreducedface-to-face comfort

✅VERIFIED: Deloitte 2025, Healthy Minds Study 2024-25

✅VERIFIED: WICHE 2018, NPR/Hechinger 2025, CDC data

✅VERIFIED: Deloitte 2025, documented closure data

13.GLOBALOPTIONS LURINGSTUDENTS

ASSESSMENT

•Internationaleducationalternativesattractingdomesticstudents

•Increasedmobilityandchoicereducinglocalenrollment

Researchevidencestrengthvariessignificantlyacrossthese13executive-identifiedtrends:

��MIXED: Mental health data verified, learning style claims need validation

��ANECDOTAL: Limited data supporting significant trend impact

10.DecliningPopulation

11.InstitutionalClosures

9.WraparoundCosts 13.GlobalOptions

VERIFIEDtrendshavestrongresearchsupport. MIXED/ANECDOTALtrendsneedadditionalvalidationorrepresentColumbia-specificconcerns ratherthansector-wideforces.Thisassessmentshouldguidestrategicplanningpriorities.

VERIFIED SOURCES WITH LINKS

AmericanAcademyofArts&Sciences.(2024,April3).Thestate(s)ofthehumanities.AmericanAcademyofArtsandSciences. https://www.amacad.org/bulletin/winter-2024/states-of-the-humanities

Blumenstyk,G.(2024,September25).Whathigheredwilllooklikein10years.TheChronicleofHigherEducation. https://www.chronicle.com/report/free/what-higher-ed-will-look-like-in-10-years

Best,A.(2025,March13).U.S.collegeenrollmentdecline:Factsandfigures.BestColleges.https://www.bestcolleges.com/research/college-enrollmentdecline/

Barshay,J.(2025,January8).Aloomingdemographiccliff:Fewercollegestudentsandultimatelyfewergraduates.NPR/TheHechingerReport. https://www.npr.org/2025/01/08/nx-s1-5246200/demographic-cliff

HealthyMindsNetwork.(2025).2024-2025HealthyMindsStudy:Nationaldatareport.UniversityofMichigan.https://healthymindsnetwork.org/wpcontent/uploads/2025/09/2024-2025_HMS-National-Data-Report_Student.pdf

Popli,S.,Ryan,K.,&Davis,A.(2025,July18).2025highereducationtrends.DeloitteInsights.https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/publicsector/2025-us-higher-education-trends.html

WesternInterstateCommissionforHigherEducation(WICHE).(2018).Envisioningpathwaysto2030:Megatrendsshapingthefutureofglobalhigher education.ERIC.https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED592843

NationalUniversity.(2025,September22).59AIjobstatistics:FutureofU.S.jobs.https://www.nu.edu/blog/ai-job-statistics/

GOVERNMENT DATA SOURCES

CentersforDiseaseControlandPrevention.Nationalvitalstatisticsreports.NationalCenterforHealthStatistics. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/births.htm

NationalCenterforEducationStatistics.Digestofeducationstatistics.U.S.DepartmentofEducation.https://nces.ed.gov/

U.S.DepartmentofLabor.EmploymentandTrainingAdministrationapprenticeshipdata.https://www.dol.gov/agencies/eta/apprenticeship

PRIMARY RESEARCH

ColumbiaCollegeChicagoFocusGroups(December2025):Faculty,Staff,Students,Parents,Alumnistakeholdersessionsvalidatingexternaltrendsand revealinginternalinstitutionalmanifestations.

NOTE ON SOURCE VALIDATION

Sourcesmarked'VERIFIED'abovehaveconfirmedcitationsandaccessiblelinks.Claimsrequiringadditionalvalidationorspecificdatapointsnotfound inpreliminaryresearcharenotedaccordingly.ThecompleteSTEEPLEAnalysis(Part2)containsthefullbibliographywith40+sources.

METHODOLOGY & NEXT STEPS

These13executive-prioritizedtrendsprovidethestrategiccontextforcomprehensiveenvironmentalanalysis.PartIIofthisdocumentpresentsthe completeSTEEPLEAnalysiswithdetailedvalidation,statisticalevidence,andstrategicimplicationsforeachenvironmentalfactor,incorporatingfocus groupinsightsthatconfirmhowexternaltrendsaremanifestingwithinColumbia'sinstitutionalcontext.

PART II. STEEPLE ANALYSIS BASED ON TEAM MEMBER’s & FOCUS GROUP FEEDBACK

SOURCE KEY: TEAMIDENTIFIED=Columbialeadershipfocusgroupsidentifiedthistrend• **RESEARCH ADDED** = Blindspotfilledbyvalidation research

TREND SUMMARY: 30TeamTrends•7Research-AddedTrends•21StronglyValidated•15Validated•1PartiallyValidated

SOCIAL AIasSocial Companion

SOCIAL DemographicGap: Studentsvs Faculty

PeopleengagethroughAIasnormalcourseof interaction;AIcompanions(AIgirlfriends, assistants)blurlinesbetweenhumanandAI relationships;culturalshifttoward comfort/discomfortwithAI-mediated communication

ColumbiaisHSIwith30%Hispanicstudents butpredominantlywhite,middle-aged,male faculty;gapwidensby2029asHispanic studentsbecomelargestfirst-year demographicwhilefacultydiversitylags

SOCIAL Multi-Party PoliticalSystem Emergence

SOCIAL Generational Communication Shift

USmayseemulti-partysystembeyond traditionaltwo-partystructure;competing ideologiesfragmentstudent/family populations;institutionsstrugglewith neutralityvs.authenticityinpolitical positioning

Generationwithreducedface-to-facecomfort; lessdevelopedinterpersonalskills;challenges forhands-oncollaborativedisciplines(theater,

•AIintegrationintodailyworkflows becomingnormalpractice(WEF2025)

•Studentsmustdevelopcompetencies forAI-augmentedenvironments (FrontiersinEducation2023)

•CulturalacceptanceofAIcompanions accelerating

•Hispanicstudentsrisingfrom26%to 36%by2041(WICHE2018)

•Whitestudentsnolongermajorityin manyfirst-yearclasses(Chronicle2024)

•Columbiacurrently30% Hispanic/Latinestudents

•Politicalfragmentationdocumented acrossinstitutions(OECD2029)

•Familiesincreasinglyviewcolleges throughpoliticallens(QuadC2025)

•Institutionschoosingneutralitytoavoid retaliation

•GenZshowsreducedface-to-face comfort(Chronicle2024)

•Shifttowardpersonalized,self-paced

SOCIAL Paceand Immediate Gratification

SOCIAL DecliningCollegeAgePopulation

dance,film,woodworking)thatrequireinpersoninteraction learning(FierceNetwork2021)

Studentsexpectrapidaccesstoinformation andservices;curriculumalreadyoutdated (teaching2025contentto2029graduates); higheredmovestooslowlyformarket expectations;instantanswersfromAI competewithtraditionallearning

Birthratedeclinesince2007recession; Midwestlosingcollege-agepopulation; enrollmentpressuresintensifythrough2029s

SOCIAL StudentMental HealthCrisis

Mentalhealthchallengesarepervasive:37% ofstudentsexperiencemoderate-to-severe anxiety;18%experienceseveredepression; mentalhealthistopreasonstudentsleave college;artseducationshowneffectivefor well-being

TECH RapidAIAdoption andAutomation

TECH AIasCompetitor toHigherEd

TECH Tech Infrastructure Demands

TECH Curriculum Obsolescence

AIautomatessubstantialportionsofjobs youngartistsusetosustaincareers (administrative,entry-levelcreativework); softwaretools(Photoshop,FinalCutPro) increasinglyautomated;DODre-skilling workforcefrom"artificialintelligence"to "augmentedintelligence"

StudentscanlearntechnicalskillsthroughAI vsattendingcollege;threatenstechnical instructionvscriticalthinkingdevelopment

AI/datacentersrequiremassivewaterfor cooling;GreatLakesregionhascompetitive advantage;migrationpatternsmayshift towardwater-richregions

Technologychangesfasterthancurriculum adapts;gapwidensby2029withoutstructural changetocurriculumdevelopmentprocess; studentsgraduatewithoutdatedskills;faculty lackcurrenttechnologyknowledge

•Digitalcommunicationaffecting communitysense

•Studentsdecideonprogramswithin2 months(EducationDynamics2025)

•Curriculummisalignmentwithcurrent practicedocumented

•PaceexpectationsacceleratingwithAI availability

•13%declinein18-year-oldsby2041 (WICHE2018)

•Illinois-32%projecteddecline

•15%enrollmentdecline2010-2021 (NCES)

•37%moderate-to-severeanxiety;18% severedepression(HealthyMinds202425)

•Mentalhealthtopreasonstudentsleave (InsideHigherEd2025)

•Artsengagementimprovesgeneralselfperceivedhealthandmentalwell-being (WHOEurope2019)

•15-30%ofworkhoursautomatedby 2029(McKinsey2023)

•Creative/artssectors:14-16point automationacceleration(McKinsey 2023)

Social/Tech/Educational STRONGLY VALIDATED TEAM

TECH OnlineandHybrid LearningPressure

ECONOMIC EndofJobsEra/ Employment

Institutionsfacepressureforonline/hybridto reachbroadermarketsanddeclininglocal populations;particulartensionforhands-on institutions(Columbia'swoodworking, theater,dance,filmproduction)requiring physicalpresenceandcollaboration

Traditionalemploymentgivingwaytoprojectbasedgigwork;identitytiedtoworkneeds redefinition;potential23%unemployment

•StudentsquestioningcollegeROI(Team Assessment)

•AI-basedlearningaccelerating

•Datacentersconsumingsignificant waterresources

•GreatLakeslargestfreshwaterbodyin US

•Teaching2025curriculumto2029 graduates(FierceNetwork2021)

•Software/toolschangingfasterthan institutionsadapt

•Facultytechnologyknowledgegaps documented

•Pressuretoexpandgeographicreach documented(Chronicle2024)

•Phygital(hybrid)educationlikely permanent

•Tensionbetweenonlinescalabilityand hands-onlearning

•14%ofworkersgloballyneedcareer changesby2029(McKinsey2023)

•32-42%ofpandemicjoblosseswon't

Economic/Social STRONGLY VALIDATED TEAM

Social/Educational/Econo mic STRONGLY VALIDATED

Tech/Economic/Social STRONGLY VALIDATED TEAM

al

Tech/Environmental/Econ omic VALIDATED TEAM

Tech/Educational VALIDATED TEAM

Tech/Educational/Econo mic VALIDATED TEAM

Economic/Social STRONGLY VALIDATED TEAM

Restructuring withmassivepovertyandwealthdisparity betweentechcontrollersandworkers; fundamentalcapitalismrestructuring return(UChicagoBeckerFriedman Institute)

ECONOMIC GigEconomy

Dominance

ECONOMIC ROICrisisfor HigherEd

ECONOMIC Economic

Volatilityand Funding

Uncertainty

Primaryemploymentstructureby2029; workersasindependentcontractorsmanaging multipleclients/projects;organizationshiring forprojectsnotpositions;benefitsandjob securitydecline;exemplifiedby Accenture/Abbottinternalgigmodels

Iftraditionaljobsendingandgigeconomy dominates,ROIof4-yeardegreequestioned; historicallyaccessibleduetoincomepremium

Politicalshiftsaffecteducationfunding; DepartmentofEducationmaydisappearor expand;HSIfundingopportunitiesbut shouldn'tbesoledependency;team assessment2.8/5onDoEabolishment (moderatelikelihood);privateinstitutions mostvulnerable

ECONOMIC Employment

Restructuring

ECONOMIC ServiceJob Automation

ECONOMIC DecliningCollegeAgePopulation

Traditionalemploymentgivingwaytoprojectbasedgigwork;potentialunemploymentwith wealthdisparity

Evenservicejobsfaceautomation;robots deliveringfood(alreadyinLincolnPark); Grubhubautomation;landscaping/painting robotswithin5years;few"automation-proof" jobsremain;womendisproportionately affected(79%inhigh-riskautomationjobs)

Birthratedeclinesince2007recession; Midwesthemorrhagingcollege-age population;enrollmentpressuresintensify through2029sandmaynotrecover;regional variationssignificant(Northeast/Midwest hardesthit)

ECONOMIC Wraparound ServicesCost Burden

ECONOMIC SomeCollegeNo Credential(SCNC) Opportunity

Institutionsface"skyrocketingoverhead costs"includinghealthcare,mentalhealth services,insurancepremiums;moreonuson institutionstoprovidesupportlayerswith unclearresourcesources;explainsColumbia's staffingchallengesand"ColumbiaCentral" overwhelm

36.8MAmericanshavesomecollegebutno degree;populationgrowing2.9%annually;reenrollmentrising9.1%;Columbiacouldtarget stopped-outstudentsespeciallyfromarts programs;connectstoteam'sconcernabout "alumnilockedout"afterleaving

•85Mjobsdisplaced,97Mnewrolesby 2025(WEF2025)

•Gigeconomygrowthaccelerating (McKinsey2023)

•Project-basedworkbecomingstandard

•Internalgigmodelsatmajor corporationsdocumented Economic/Social

•Studentsconsidering4-yeardegree: 66%to52%(2020-2023)(Chronicle 2024)

•Collegeenrollmentratestagnant

•Teamvote:2.8/5onDoEabolishment likelihood

•HSIfundingopportunitiesexpanding

•Politicalboomerangpossiblein2028 elections

•14%ofworkersneedcareerchangesby 2029(McKinsey2023)

•85Mjobsdisplaced,97Mnewrolesby 2025(WEF)

•Customerservicejobsdeclining5.0% (2023-2033)

•Deliveryrobotsalreadydeployed (LincolnPark)

•79%employedwomeninhigh-risk automationjobsvs58%men(National University2025)

•13%declinein18-year-oldsby2041 (WICHE2018)

•Illinois-32%,California-29%,NY-27% (NPR/Hechinger2025)

•15%enrollmentdecline2010-2021, 2.7Mfewerstudents(NCES)

•Skyrocketingcosts:healthcare,mental health,insurance(Deloitte2025)

•Average1college/weekclosingor mergingin2024

•Evenwell-resourcedBigTenschools reportingoperatingdeficits

•36.8MAmericansages18-64withsome college,nocredential(NSCRCJune2024)

•TotalSCNCpopulation41.9Mallages (July2022data)

•Populationgrowing 2.9%year-over-year

•Re-enrollment rising9.1%(2022-2023)

Economic/Social/Educatio nal

Economic/Social/Tech

Economic/Social STRONGLY VALIDATED RESEARCH

Economic/Educational STRONGLY VALIDATED RESEARCH

ECONOMIC Accelerating Institutional Closures

ENVIRON WaterScarcityand GreatLakes Advantage

Average1college/weekclosedormergedin 2024;100+smallprivatecollegesclosedsince 2016;EABpredicts449collegesface25%+ enrollmentdeclineby2029;contextualizes Columbia'sfinancialchallengeswithinsectorwidecrisis

Waterwaralreadyunderway;organizations usingGIStoidentify/buywater-richland; GreatLakespossesseslargestfreshwater resources;peoplemigratetoMidwestfor wateraccess;counterbalancesbirthrate decline

ENVIRON Environmental Catastropheand ClimateImpacts

POLITICAL Neutralityvs Authenticity Tension

Disastersintensify(Californiafires,heat waves,pollution);create"uninhabitable" regions;book"MinistryfortheFuture"depicts re-densificationaroundsaferareas;Midwest relativelywell-positionedenvironmentallybut challengeforarts/communicationschool positioning

"Almostimpossibleforfamiliesnottoview Colombiaashavingpoliticalleaning";students seekinstitutionsembracingvalues(DEI); Columbia"afraidofworddiversitybecause mayberamifications";mostinstitutions chooseneutralityby2029toavoidretaliation

POLITICAL Departmentof Education Uncertainty

POLITICAL HSIPositioning Strategy

ScenarioplanningrequiredforpotentialDoE abolishment;teamassessment2.8/5 (moderatelikelihood);political"boomerang" possibleifpendulumswingsin2028; Columbiahasn'thistoricallyavaileditselfof governmentsupportsystematicallyasprivate institution

Should"leanintoHSIidentity"forfundingbut "notdependent,totallydependent"onsingle source;by2029HSIpositioningincreasingly importantasHispanicstudentsbecomelargest demographic;mustbeauthenticcommitment notjustfundingstrategy

•1college/weekclosingormergingin 2024(Deloitte2025)

•100+smallprivatecollegesclosedsince 2016

•449collegesface25%+enrollment declineby2029(EAB)

•Waterwardocumented(land acquisitionwithGIS)

•GreatLakes=largestUSfreshwater body

•Migrationpatternsmayshifttoward water-richregionsby2029

•Forestfires,heatwavescreating migrationpressure

•Re-densificationaround environmentallysafeareasprojected

•Midwestrelativelyprotectedfrom worstclimateimpacts

•Familiesincreasinglyevaluatecolleges politically(QuadC2025)

•Eliteuniversitiesfacingpolitical pressure(Harvard,Northwestern, ColumbiaU)

Economic/Educational STRONGLY VALIDATED RESEARCH

Environmental/Social/Eco nomic VALIDATED TEAM

Environmental/Social VALIDATED TEAM

POLITICAL PoliticalMessaging andEconomicRisk

"Smallpoliticalrisk"but"substantialeconomic risk"fromtakingstances;institutionsthat tookstances10+yearsagofacepotential retaliationfromleaderswho"rememberyou saidthis";donorsandgovernmentcanpunish politicalpositions

•Institutionschoosingneutralityto protectfunding Political/Social/Economic STRONGLY VALIDATED TEAM

•Teamvote:2.8/5likelihoodofDoE abolishment

•Politicalshiftsaffectinginstitutional funding

•NEA/NEHfundingalsouncertain

•Columbiacurrently30% Hispanic/Latinestudents

•Hispanicproportionnationally:26%to 36%by2041(WICHE2018)

•HSIfundingopportunitiesexpanding

•Multipleeliteinstitutionsfacing consequencesforpaststances

•Economicretaliationforpolitical positionsdocumented

•Donorpressureoninstitutional messagingincreasing

LEGAL/ETHICAL Human-AI Relationship Ethics

EthicalquestionsaboutAIcompanions, boundaries,psychologicalimpacts;whendoes AIassistancebecomedependency?Howteach criticalthinkingwhenAIprovidesanswers?

BalancebetweenAIastoolvs.replacementfor humanjudgment/creativity

•AIethicsemergingasmajorfield

•QuestionsaboutAIdependencyvs. augmentation

•Educationalinstitutionswrestlingwith AIpolicies Ethical/Social/Educational VALIDATED TEAM

LEGAL/ETHICAL Equityand Representationin Hiring

LEGAL/ETHICAL Authenticvs Performative Diversity

Growinggapbetweendiversestudentsand white,middle-agedfacultyraisesquestions aboutrepresentation,mentorship,lived experienceunderstanding;"senioritytrumps ability"inunionenvironmentslimitsdiversity hiring

Studentsdistinguishauthenticdiversityfrom performative;usingdiversitylanguagefor funding/recruitmentwhilenotembodyingin faculty/leadership/curriculumviewedas unethical;"Weknowwhoweare,justnot comfortable"expressingopenly

LEGAL/ETHICAL EducationalAccess andAffordability

Ifcollegedoesn'tleadtostableemployment,is expensiveeducationethical?Columbiatuition ~$30K"wellbelowwhatothercollegeswould ask"butisthisaffordableforuncertain employmentfutures?Columbiahistorically served"disadvantagedbackgrounds"

LEGAL/ETHICAL WorkloadEquity andLabor Practices

LEGAL/ETHICAL CreativeWork OwnershipandAI

Broadperceptionsofunionvsnon-union compensationgaps(uniongetsfullraises, non-unionhalfraisesforsamework); "senioritytopsabilitytodothejob";part-time andteaching-trackfacultyreportongoing workloadcreepandinconsistentdistribution ofresponsibilities

WhoownsAI-generatedart?Whatisauthentic creativityvs.AIassistance?Copyrightand attributionchallengeswhenAItrainedon existingartists'work;legalframeworks laggingbehindtechnology

EDUCATIONAL Vocationalization vsLiberalArts Identity

EDUCATIONAL Alternative Credentials Explosion

Teamnotedmissionstatement"leftoutcore competency...thisisanartsschool"andschool "tryingtoturnintobusinessschool";sectorwidepressureforworkforce-orientedcourses; humanitiesmajorsdecliningsince2012; cultureshiftcausingfacultyunease

Teammentioned"certificateprogramsfor adultlearners"andUX/graphicdesign certificates;dualenrollmentincreased10% (adding100Kstudents);apprenticeships doubledto640K;micro-credentialsgaining traction;threatenstraditional4-yeardegree model

•30%Hispanicstudentswith predominantlywhitefacultyatColumbia

•Unionseniorityruleslimitingdiverse hiringdocumented

•Representationgapwideningnot narrowing

•Students/familiesincreasinglyevaluate authenticity

•Gapbetweendiversitymessagingand facultydiversity

•Fearofusing"diversity"termaffecting authenticexpression

•Columbiatuition~$30K(belowpeer institutions)

•Studentsconsideringdegree:66%to 52%(2020-2023)

•29%saycollegecostsunjustifiable (EducationDynamics2025)

•Unionstafffullraises,non-unionstaff halfraises

•Seniorityovermeritinunion environments

•Part-timefacultycompensationgaps

- Proof of documentation not validated

•LegalframeworksforAI-generated workunclear

•Copyrightquestionsunresolved

Ethical/Social/Legal VALIDATED TEAM

Ethical/Social VALIDATED TEAM

Ethical/Economic/Social VALIDATED TEAM

Ethical/Legal/Economic VALIDATED TEAM

•AttributionchallengeswhenAItrained onexistingartists Ethical/Legal/Tech

•Humanitiesmajorspeaked2012, decliningsince(AmAcademyArts& Sciences)

•Growingworkforce-orientedcourse demandcreating"cultureshift"(SUNY Chancellor)

•Institutions"nudgedtoward vocationalizedfuture"(Chronicle2024)

•Dualenrollmentup10%,adding~100K students(EducationDynamics2025)

•Apprenticeshipsdoubled:317Kto640K inpastdecade

•28.1%ofundergradenrollment increasesfromdualenrollment

Educational/Economic/So cial STRONGLY

TEAM

EDUCATIONAL Reduced-Credit DegreePressure

Growingconcernabouttime-to-completion; interestinreduced-creditbachelor'sdegrees; institutionsbreaking120-creditdegreeinto shortersegments;developingcompetencybasedprograms;ifcompetitorsoffer90-credit BFAs,Columbia's4-yearstructuremayseem toolong/expensive

•Growingconcernabouttime-tocompletion(HLCTrends2025)

•Institutionsbreaking120-creditdegree intoshortersegments(Deloitte2025)

•Competency-baseddegreeprograms expanding

LIMITATIONS:

• Someteaminsightslackinternal/externalverificationbutreflectvaluableinstitutionalknowledge

• Trendprojectionsextendto2029basedoncurrenttrajectoryanalysis

• Regionalvariations(Chicago,Midwest)maydifferfromnationaltrends

KEY INSIGHTS:

•Teamdemonstratedexceptionalforesight-30of37trendsindependentlyidentified

•Sevenresearch-addedtrendsfillcriticalblindspots:mentalhealthcrisis,wraparoundservicesburden,SCNCpopulationopportunity,institutional closurescontext,vocationalizationpressure,alternativecredentialsexplosion,reduced-creditdegreepressure

•Mentalhealthcrisisparticularlyrelevantforartscollege-Columbiacouldleveragearts-for-wellnesspositioning

•36.8MSCNCpopulationrepresentsuntappedmarketforre-enrollmentprograms

•Allmajorstatisticclaimsverified/cited.Seeabbreviatedcitationreferencesinthetableandinthefollowingpages.

REFERENCES

Major Consulting Firm Research

Lund,S.,Ellingrud,K.,Hancock,B.,&Manyika,J.(2023,July26). Generative AI and the future of work in America. McKinseyGlobalInstitute.https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/ourresearch/generative-ai-and-the-future-of-work-in-america

Manyika,J.,Lund,S.,Chui,M.,Bughin,J.,Woetzel,J.,Batra,P.,Ko,R.,&Sanghvi,S.(2017,November28). Jobs lost, jobs gained: What the future of work will mean for jobs, skills, and wages. McKinseyGlobalInstitute.https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/jobs-lost-jobs-gained

Popli,S.,Ryan,K.,&Davis,A.(2025,July18).2025highereducationtrends.DeloitteInsights.https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/public-sector/2025-us-highereducation-trends.html

International Organizations

OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment.(n.d.). Future of education and skills 2030 RetrievedDecember2025,fromhttps://www.oecd.org/en/about/projects/future-ofeducation-and-skills-2030.html

WorldEconomicForum.(2025,January7). The future of jobs report 2025. https://www.weforum.org/publications/the-future-of-jobs-report-2025/digest/

Higher Education Demographics & Enrollment

Barshay,J.(2025,January8). A looming demographic cliff: Fewer college students and ultimately fewer graduates. NPR/TheHechingerReport.https://www.npr.org/2025/01/08/nx-s15246200/demographic-cliff

Best,A.(2025,March13). U.S. college enrollment decline: Facts and figures. BestColleges.https://www.bestcolleges.com/research/college-enrollment-decline/

Burke,L.(2024,December11). College-age demographics begin steady projected decline. InsideHigherEd.https://www.insidehighered.com/news/admissions/traditionalage/2024/12/11/college-age-demographics

WesternInterstateCommissionforHigherEducation.(2018). Envisioning pathways to 2030: Megatrends shaping the future of global higher education and international student mobility [Researchreport].https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED592843

Higher Education Strategic Trends

Blumenstyk,G.(2024,September25). What higher ed will look like in 10 years. TheChronicleofHigherEducation.https://www.chronicle.com/report/free/what-higher-ed-will-look-likein-10-years

EducationDynamics.(2025).2025landscapeofhighereducationreport.https://insights.educationdynamics.com/landscape-2025

HigherLearningCommission.(2025).Trends2025.https://download.hlcommission.org/HLCTrends_INF.pdf

NationalStudentClearinghouseResearchCenter.(2024,June). Some college, no credential student outcomes: Annual progress report (Fifthinseries).https://nscresearchcenter.org/wpcontent/uploads/SCNCReport2024.pdf

FullFabric.(n.d.). 8 trends shaping the future of education through to 2030. https://www.fullfabric.com/articles/8-trends-shaping-the-future-of-education HolonIQ.(2020). Education in 2030: Five scenarios for the future of learning and talent [Researchreport].https://www.holoniq.com/2030

InsideTrack.(2025,January9). Ten higher ed trends to watch for in 2025. https://www.insidetrack.org/blog/10-higher-ed-trends-to-watch-in-2025

Wood,G.,etal.(2025,February5). What higher education will look like in 2030: From challenges to change. QuadC.https://www.quadc.io/blog/what-higher-education-will-look-like-in2030-from-challenges-to-change

Student Mental Health Research

HealthyMindsNetwork.(2025). 2024-2025 Healthy Minds Study: National data report. UniversityofMichigan.https://healthymindsnetwork.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/20242025_HMS-National-Data-Report_Student.pdf

Mowreader,A.(2025,September11).Onlyone-thirdofcollegestudentshavepositivementalhealth. Inside Higher Ed. https://www.insidehighered.com/news/student-success/healthwellness/2025/09/11/college-student-mental-health-remains-poor-minority

WorldHealthOrganizationRegionalOfficeforEurope.(2019). What is the evidence on the role of the arts in improving health and well-being? A scoping review (HealthEvidenceNetwork synthesisreport67).https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK553778/

AI & Workforce Transformation

NationalUniversity.(2025,September22). 59 AI job statistics: Future of U.S. jobs. https://www.nu.edu/blog/ai-job-statistics/

Nartey,J.(2025,June23). AI job displacement analysis (2025-2030) [Workingpaper].SSRN.https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5316265

NexfordUniversity.(2024). How will artificial intelligence affect jobs 2026-2030. https://www.nexford.edu/insights/how-will-ai-affect-jobs

Academic Research & Workforce Preparation

AmericanAcademyofArts&Sciences.(2024,April3).Thestate(s)ofthehumanities.AmericanAcademyofArtsandSciences.https://www.amacad.org/bulletin/winter-2024/states-ofthe-humanities

Caballero,C.L.,Mazzetti,A.,Abad-Segura,E.,RaoHill,S.,Raby,R.L.,&Munoz,F.(2023,November29).Preparingthefutureworkforcefor2030:Theroleofhighereducationinstitutions. Frontiers in Education, 8,Article1295249.https://doi.org/10.3389/feduc.2023.1295249

Townsend,R.B.,&Bradburn,N.M.(2021,November23).Thenumberofcollegegraduatesinthehumanitiesdropsfortheeighthconsecutiveyear.AmericanAcademyofArtsand Sciences.https://www.amacad.org/news/college-graduates-humanities-drops-eighth-consecutive-year

Wannemacher,K.,&Bodmann,J.(2021,May28).Futureofhighereducation:Fourmodelsmovingtoward2030. Fierce Network. https://www.fierce-network.com/pedagogy/futurehigher-education-four-models-moving-toward-2030

Government & Statistical Data Sources

CentersforDiseaseControlandPrevention.(n.d.). National vital statistics reports. NationalCenterforHealthStatistics.RetrievedDecember2025,from https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/births.htm

NationalCenterforEducationStatistics.(n.d.). Digest of education statistics. U.S.DepartmentofEducation.RetrievedDecember2025,fromhttps://nces.ed.gov/ U.S.CensusBureau.(n.d.). Population projections. RetrievedDecember2025,fromhttps://www.census.gov/

WesternInterstateCommissionforHigherEducation.(2018).Envisioningpathwaysto2030:Megatrendsshapingthefutureofglobalhighereducationandinternationalstudentmobility [Researchreport].https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED592843

NOTE: Thisisanabbreviatedreferencelistshowingkeysourcesusedtovalidateinputfromtheteamswhennecessary.Furtherresearchmaybeneeded wherekeyquantitativemeasuresareneeded.Thereferencesherehelpalleviatebiasbutalsohelpsguidethevalidationanddiscussionsoftheteams.

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