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Market Muddle Investors continue to navigate volatility amid recession talk and conflicting economic forecasts. Experts say they should be fine if they avoid greed and fear.
As the world emerges from a oncein-a-lifetime pandemic and grapples with the ongoing war in Ukraine, investors are dealing with the fallout of a roller-coaster few years in financial markets. Inflation has been a hot topic for months, while talk of an upcoming recession has been a theme since the height of the pandemic. After cratering markets in 2020 and a bounce-back in 2021, 2022 saw yet another dip. It’s not easy to pin down exactly where markets are headed, how inflation will look a year from now or whether we’re in for a recession. In December, Fortune predicted that the U.S. will avoid a recession, while Deutsche Bank forecasted the opposite.
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So what do investors see coming? How are they navigating volatility under these uncertain conditions? Even for Joseph Chornyak Sr., a financial planning consultant at Chornyak & Associates with more than 40 years of experience under his belt, it’s hard to be sure. “I talk to portfolio managers and economists on a regular basis, and with rare exception, the consensus is that this market today is ahead of itself,” he says. “It’s a bit pricey today, and it’s priced for perfection. We all realize that perfection isn’t necessarily reality. So there are a lot of things that are a bit uncertain.” Mark Beaver, senior financial ad-
viser and partner at Dublin’s Keeler & Nadler Family Wealth, says much of the uncertainty comes from a volatile two years. After a comeback year in 2021, he saw too much optimism and excessively lofty expectations. Following a down 2022, expectations were so low that he had to try to lift clients’ hopes. But that’s improved in early 2023, though people have remained generally pessimistic. And trends aren’t equal across all areas, either. For instance, although there are fears over inflation and other factors, Beaver says we “haven’t seen bonds look as good as they do right now in more than a decade.” Meanwhile, “nobody” wants to invest internationally
ILLUSTRATION: GETTY IMAGES/YELLOW MAN
By Andrew King
COLUMBUS MONTHLY AUGUST 2023
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