Investing in Rail for Resilience June 2015
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Auckland in 2041 Auckland is pivotal to the social, economic and cultural development of New Zealand
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• • • •
2,500,000
More than 700,000 new residents
Click to edit Master title style 2,000,000
An extra 400,000 dwellings
Twice as many city centre and city fringe residents and employees City Centre student numbers up by 30%
City centre producing 25% of Auckland’s GDP currently 17%
1,500,000
Growth to 2041
1,000,000
500,000 729,000
0 Auckland
Christchurch Wellington
Waikato
Bay of Plenty
Otago
Growth in Auckland to 2041
Growth The Auckland region is projected to account for threefifths of New Zealand's population growth between 2013 and 2043 In 2028, Auckland will be home to 37 % of New Zealand's population, compared with 34% in 2013 Auckland's population is projected to reach 2 million around 2033 By 2043, Auckland will account for 40% of New Zealand's population
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Auckland's growth in perspective
We are adding Wellington and Christchurch to Auckland in the next 30 years
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Regional freight network- road/rail Sidings requiring daily shunts • • • • • •
Otahuhu Southdown Wiri Westfield Port of Auckland Sylvia Park
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Future Freight Trends for Auckland
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Forecast freight volumes/millions of tonnes Mode
2012
2042
% Increase
Road
55
95
72%
Rail
5
8
69%
Ship
4
6
76%
Auckland total
63
109
72%
NZ total
236
373
58%
Auckland %
27%
29%
Freight in Auckland
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55 MT was moved by road - 26% of NZ total freight 38 MT within Auckland - 69% of Auckland total 87 % of all freight in Auckland is moved by road Rail carried about 5 MT tonnes of freight in 2012 (28% of NZ)
Frequent Transit Network (FTN)
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Rapid Transit Network (RTN)
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Mode split Auckland 2013 and Australian cities 2011
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Auckland Mode Shares •
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Car is the dominant mode in Auckland but PT is becoming more important at peaks and for accessing the city centre Auckland Mode Share - AM Peak
Auckland Mode Share - CBD AM Peak
100%
100%
90%
90%
80%
80% 51%
70%
46%
42%
70%
60% 89%
87%
86%
60% AM Peak Car
50%
AM Peak PT
40%
CBD AM Peak Car
50%
CBD AM Peak PT
40% 30% 30% 20%
49%
54%
58%
2031
2041
20% 10% 11%
13%
14%
2021
2031
2041
0%
10% 0% 2021
PT Mode Share and Growth •
Overall PT increasing by 10% annually
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Rail accounts for 17% of PT trips
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Rail patronage increasing by 22% annually
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Rail takes people off the road – freeing roads for those without choice e.g. freight.
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Trains free up road space •
1 train - 120 x 6m containers - about 60 truck and trailer rigs
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12 train round trips each day – equivalent to 720 trucks each way each day
Nationally, about 25% of all freight movements (by weight) start or finish in Auckland region -(2/5ths external to the region) 80% of Auckland origin freight tonne-km go external to Auckland region Key destinations in order of tonne-km • Canterbury – 21% • Wellington – 15% • Manawatu – 13% • Bay of Plenty – 12%
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Predicted Freight Growth Implications Freight study predicts average of 44% increase in rail freight traffic Considering Auckland region separately: • 50% to 75% increase in rail freight in and out of Auckland • Equivalent non-rail solution would mean an extra o 360 to 540 long distance trucks each way each day (going beyond Pukekohe) o 75 to 110 trucks in and out of Auckland port each day
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Aspirations Daily round trips
Long distance freight
Freight extent of passenger Passenger trains port 10 minute frequency round trip south moves service of Westfield
Now
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5
2016 2042 prediction
6 hrs
10 18 - 21
15 - 18
132 144
12 hrs
186
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With a 6 trains/hour frequency peak passenger network there is capacity for only two non-passenger paths each way an hour (including freight, resilience and empty moves)
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PT and freight growth aspirations competing for same spare capacity
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Southern Line Example •
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Between Westfield and Wiri two track railway with capacity ~ 20 paths each way. A freight train takes the equivalent of three passenger paths Current interpeak
2016 interpeak
Service
Freq tph
Capacity used
Freq tph
Capacity used
Freq tph
Capacity used
Freq tph
Capacity used
Papakura
3
3
4
4
6
6
9
9
Manukau
3
3
4
4
6
6
6
6
Freight
3
9
3
9
4
12
2
6
Utilisation
75%
85%
Future interpeak
120%
Post CRL peak
105%
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Extra Tracks Extra two track railway • Extra 20 passenger paths, equivalent to six freight paths per hour each way
Extra bi-directional track • With transit time and margin between trains, perhaps twothree paths per hour each way Future interpeak
Post CRL peak
Service
Freq tph
Capacity used
Freq tph
Capacity used
Papakura
6
6
9
9
Manukau
6
6
6
6
Freight
4
12
2
6
Utilisation
120%
105%
3rd main
100%
88%
Two extra mains
60%
53%
City Rail Link
The case for the CRL has multiple dimensions
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• Transport for Auckland’s growth • Economic
• Integrated land-use • Environmental imperatives
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/Light rail
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Rail for Capacity and Resilience •
Current rail capacity is 15,000 passengers/hr into City Centre
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Six motorway lanes (2,400 vp/h) into the city centre
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With CRL capacity up to 36,000 passengers/hr into city centre
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Equivalent of nine further motorway lanes into the city centre.
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Rail provides heavy lifting capacity into parts of the city where roads cannot meet demand
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CRL role in resilience
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Pre CRL
Post CRL
Auckland passenger rail is a one-way dead end system
CRL knocks out the dead end and creates a two way system
Train numbers constrained to 20/hr at peak
Throughout at Britomart can more than double to 48 trains/hr at peak
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Britomart Station as the only city centre Two new city centre stations will share station will be at capacity in 2018 with no the load with Aotea which is likely to resilience for delay and won’t be able to become the busiest city centre station meet demand or safety standards
Special housing areas
Special housing areas and proximity to rail
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Resilience for Auckland’s juggernaut
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The end of the line
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Transport - Conclusions There is an established way of approach transport appraisal based on straight line growth forecasts and values of time with fixed population and employment patterns, but it is not clear that it reflects what actually happens
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In reality transport drives land use patterns just as much as land use drives transport demand
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New network
CCFAS
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Strategic Context
CCFAS
AT’s strategic themes • •
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Prioritise rapid high frequency public transport Transform and elevate customer focus and experience Build network optimisation and resilience Ensure a sustainable funding model Develop creative, adaptive, innovative implementation
Draft proposed Unitary Plan
City Centre Master Plan • • • • • • • •
An exemplar of urban living Integrated regional transport Walkable and accessible Meets the needs of residents Culturally rich and creative Exceptional natural environment International destination A global centre for business 28
CCFAS2 Objectives
CCFAS2
• Significantly contribute to lifting and shaping Auckland's economic growth • Improve the efficiency and resilience of the transport network of inner Auckland and the city centre • Improve transport access into and around the city centre to address current problems and for a rapidly growing Auckland • Provide a sustainable transport solution that minimises environmental impacts • Contribute positively to a liveable, vibrant and safe city • Optimise the potential to implement a feasible solution 29
Commuter and light rail Commuter rail – CRL – links what exists •
A regional solution to optimise rail for an efficient transport network
Light rail- a new solution • Optimises road within the transport network
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