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Click to edit Master title Investing in Auckland’s style Development September 2014
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Overview
Click to edit Master title • Auckland’s Transport Challenge •style The City Rail Link • Shaping Auckland
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Auckland in 2041 Auckland is pivotal to the social, economic and cultural development of New Zealand 2,500,000
•
• • • •
More than 700,000 new residents
Click to edit Master title style 2,000,000
An extra 400,000 dwellings
Twice as many city centre and city fringe residents and employees City Centre student numbers up by 30%
City centre producing 25% of Auckland’s GDP currently 17%
1,500,000
Growth to 2041
2011 Population
1,000,000
500,000
729,000
0 Auckland
Christchurch
Wellington
Waikato
Bay of Plenty
Otago
Growth in Auckland to 2041
Auckland’s economy •
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Auckland employment composition Advanced business services, finance and insurance 12% 24%
Government, health and education Wholesaling and retailing
23%
Other 23% 18%
• • • •
Manufacturing
Auckland accounts for 34% of jobs in NZ and most are in the urban areas Auckland generates 37% of NZ’s GDP
Wellington, Hamilton and Tauranga combined, account for 13% of jobs Transport is critical to shape urban form and lead economic development in cities
City centre – economic contribution • About one in six workers in Auckland work in the city centre • Average city centre earnings 27% higher than the rest of Auckland • City centre accounts for 17% of Auckland GDP, 25% by 2041 • Agglomeration benefits drive higher productivity and wages • Improved access is key to Auckland’s economic growth • CRL biggest contributor to improved city centre access
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The challenge Using medium growth forecasts and assuming all major transport projects other than City Rail Link in place By 2021: • Most bus networks are at capacity, some are over; can’t physically be provided for within existing road corridor • Private vehicle speeds in city centre halve in the morning peak to 7 km/h • Britomart has reached capacity
By 2041: • Bus network significantly over capacity • Private vehicle journey times to city centre from west and south will increase by 30-50% • Private vehicle speeds in morning peak drop to 5km/h (average walking speed)
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Strategic option assessment Criteria
Effect on city centre access
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Surface Bus
Underground Bus
Underground Rail (CRL)
Integrated CRL and SB
Worst
Poor
Better
Best
Impact on wider regional movement Improving economic performance & potential Reducing impacts on environment & amenity Implementation costs and difficulty Reduction in exposure to harm
• CRL has the strongest strategic fit when assessed against recognised transport criteria. Greater improvement will be achieved with bus optimisation
City shaping and placemaking
• Leading growth with transport infrastructure is vital to city shaping
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Britomart- from seedy to sought after
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10 years old- 40 million passengers- 24,000 a day • Britomart Precinct has the lowest vacancy rates and some of the highest lease rates in the city centre
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Relocations attracted from the city centre, city fringe and outside Commercial Vacancy Rates All City Centre
Britomart Precinct
Core
Western Corridor
1995
14.6%
13.5%
17.5%
13.5%
2003
12.7%
14.9%
16.7%
8.6%
2011
11.3%
1.3%
14.3%
8.8%
Annual Average Employment Growth
Source: Colliers International 2012
10.0%
Employee annual growth
8.0% 6.0% 4.0%
2.0% 0.0%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
-2.0% Britomart images thanks to Cooper and Co
-4.0% Britomart precinct
Auckland except City Centre
City Centre
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Complexity
Clyde Dam $2.5b
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Comparative projects
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Motunui $4b Clyde Dam $2.5b
Glenbrook $4b Waterview $1.4b
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Timeline
Council
AT
2011
2012
2013
2014
Endorsed City Rail Link as top transport project and directed AT to seek a designation.
Strategy and Finance Committee moved that AT progress the land acquisition and technical requirements.
Agreed to enter negotiations with Precinct Properties in relation to the Downtown Shopping Centre.
Independent commissioners support Notices of Requirement.
Notices of Requirement notified. Public consultation and hearing. Principal Technical Advisor appointed. Property purchases start.
Notices of Requirement recommendation, decision and appeals. Design progresses.
Early concept design finalised. Project team Iwi and landowner established. engagement. Designation work City Centre Future starts. Access Study released.
CRL alignment
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Vertical alignment
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Mt Eden concept
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Mt Eden redevelopment- considerations Customer experience
• Improves reliability with grade separated junction • Allows Mt Eden passengers to connect to CRL • Saves time for 3000 passengers a day - 95 a day have longer journeys • Deep lifts replaced by open to air platforms • Provides better modal transfer
• Leverages development of construction site Development • Better fit with wider development potential
• Reduces construction disruption on Symonds St by 12-18 months Construction • Reduces construction effects on some properties impacts • Six fewer surface properties required • About a dozen fewer sub-surface properties required Cost
• Reduces capital cost by $154 million • Reduces operational expenditure
Timing and construction implications Co-ordination critical to ensure transport networks function • Albert St dug up progressively over two years • Aotea station under construction for up to five years • Major east/west intersections closed for months at a time
While this can be well managed, timing is critical. Forecast and potential city development and events: • • • • •
International Convention Centre Elliot Tower Downtown Shopping Centre 2015 Cricket World Cup 2017 World Masters Games
CRL timing affects delivery of other important city centre projects: • • • •
Bus corridors/interchanges Ferry basin redevelopment Quay St upgrade Victoria St Linear Park
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Aotea station entrance concept
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Downtown redevelopment
Enabling Works – reference design
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LTP - Optimised CRL with EMUs deferred 22
LTP 2012/22
Optimised (Mt Eden and network) 2021 completion
Optimised without EMUs 2021 completion
2,386
2,232
2,232
Network
140
126
126
EMUs (Post LTP)
336
336
0 - Post LTP
2,862
2,694
2,358
CRL Property and Construction
Total
Next steps 2014 NoR decision and any appeals Continuing community and iwi engagement Property purchase continues More detailed design
2015+ Design ready for tender Regional consents and enabling works Tender/construction
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Transport - Conclusions There is an established way of approach transport appraisal based on straight line growth forecasts and values of time with fixed population and employment patterns, but it is not clear that it reflects what actually happens
Click to edit Master title style
In reality transport drives land use patterns just as much as land use drives transport demand
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Government position - 28 June 2013 Patronage Target 25,000,000 .
• Broadly agrees with the December 2012 CCFAS findings • Government has indicated that it is committed to: a joint business case with Auckland Council in 2017, or earlier if patronage and employment conditions are met providing its share of funding for a construction start in 2020
20,000,000
10,000,000
Govt Target
5,000,000
Linear (Patronage)
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Employment Target 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000
Not if but when
Patronage
15,000,000
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CBD Employment Govt Target Linear (CBD Employment)