LONDON’S BUSINESS NEWSPAPER HOW TECH BON APPETIT A MICHELIN STAR OPINION SOLVE OUR SUPPER IN MEGEVE? YOU’LL HAVE COULD HOUSEBUILDING PROBLEM P15 TO FORAGE FOR IT THOUGH P16 MONDAY 31 JULY 2023
ISSUE 4,021
CITYAM.COM
BANK LOOKS SET TO SEND RATES HIGHER
FREE
STUMPED Broad send-off could be dampened by potential series loss
BOE EXPECTED TO HIKE INTEREST RATES TO 5.25 PER CENT JACK BARNETT THE BANK of England is tipped to hike interest rates for the 14th time in a row this week as it extends its fight against roaring inflation. Members of the nine-strong monetary policy committee (MPC) are on Thursday expected to back a 25 basis point increase to the UK’s official interest rate, which would send it to 5.25 per cent – its steepest level since March 2008. Such a move would mark a slowdown from June’s larger 50 basis point jump, a decision taken by the MPC in response to higher than expected core and wage inflation. There is likely to be some dissent within the group, with one external member, Swati Dhingra, possibly calling for borrowing costs to remain unchanged. Just a couple of weeks ago, money markets thought Bank governor An-
drew Bailey (pictured) and the rest of the MPC would repeat last month’s chunkier rate increase. However, a sharper than forecast reduction in headline and core inflation rolled back bets on a larger move. CPI inflation fell to 7.9 per cent in June, bang on the Bank’s forecast and down from 8.7 per cent in the previous month. Deutsche Bank analysts said a strengthening pound and rapidly falling energy prices means the Bank can afford to ease off the brake a bit. The Bank is almost certain to revise down its inflation projections in a new set of forecasts this week, indicating Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will meet his goal of halving the cost of living to around five per cent
by the end of the year. Growth may receive a downgrade. There is a chance the MPC will go harder to make sure inflation is finally killed off. “A hike is almost guaranteed. But the magnitude of the hike remains highly uncertain, given the Bank’s June surprise 50 basis point hike,” Deutsche Bank said. Core and services inflation – which the Bank monitors closely – are still very high at around seven per cent. Wages are also rising at their joint fastest pace on record. Although the Bank has already tightened borrowing costs at its fastest pace since the 1980s, launching its first rise in December 2021, markets think yet more pain is to come for families and businesses, which has reignited recession concerns. Traders reckon two more rate rises are in the pipeline and that they will peak at 5.75 per cent. Cuts aren’t expected until the second half of next year at the earliest.
MATT HARDY ENGLAND’s hopes of rescuing an Ashes draw are in the hands of Mother Nature after rain at the Oval yesterday left England needing 10 wickets today to level the series. Australia have retained the Ashes but are looking for their first series win in England since 2001.
Like at Old Trafford rain has stopped play and though today's forecast looks more appealing – highs of 22 degrees – it has left England with the possibility of Stuart Broad’s cricketing swansong becoming a damp squib after the pacer confirmed he’d retire at stumps today. £ FULL REPORT ON PAGE 20
Tortilla boss ‘quietly confident’ despite investment and Brexit challenges LAURA MCGUIRE DESPITE battling soaring costs, the boss of fast-food chain Tortilla Mexican Grill, Richard Morris, said he remained “quietly confident” about the firm’s future and its mission to expand into Europe. Morris said rising costs and a
tumultuous two years for restaurants had seen the sector hit “quite badly” by a lack of investment. Since Tortilla floated in 2021 on London’s junior AIM market, Morris said it has been “challenging” to get people to invest in Britain’s fastcasual dining sector. “The truth is that the restaurant
sector has been hit quite badly from an investment perspective,” he told City A.M. “It has had more headwinds [than] probably most other businesses,” he added, citing rising energy bills, staff and food costs. This year, the hospitality group has opened five new restaurants in London, which he said “has been
incredibly resilient during all these challenging times”. Morris said he was keen to further expand Tortilla’s presence in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, recently opening its first store in Belfast. But Morris said that Brexit had made this harder.
“There are still quite a lot of logistical challenges and a lot more sign-offs on getting products into Northern Ireland,” he said. Like many businesses, Morris said he is “hanging his hat” on the Windsor Framework, which will hopefully restore the smooth flow of trade.
INSIDE ARGOS BACKS ITSELF AGAINST AMAZON P4 MARLBORO BOSS’S PUNT ON HEALTH P7 ANALYSIS: BRITISH GAS’S PROFIT BONANZA P11 MARKETS P13 OPINION P14-P15