Policy Brief No. 203 — April 2025
Geneva, We Have a Problem: Space Diplomacy Goes Nuclear Jessica West
Key Points → Renewed fears of nuclear threats in space are closely tied to escalating military competition and an arms race driven by decades of diplomatic failures. → Good defence requires good governance: the only long-term path to stability is through a common security regime that includes more robust arms control and conflict prevention measures.
Introduction Prompted by leaked US intelligence suggesting Russia may be developing nuclear weapons for use in orbit, outer space security became a key topic at the UN Security Council for the first time in April and May 2024. This focus marks a turning point in the governance of space peace and security, regardless of whether the fears are justified.
→ Concerns about compliance undermine existing arms restrictions and obstruct the creation of new ones. Upcoming governance discussions on both legal prohibitions and norms of responsible behaviour must be coordinated to build confidence in implementing agreements, regardless of whether formal verification methods are in place.
Diplomatic efforts toward prevention of an arms race in space (PAROS) have stalled in the UN General Assembly First Committee on International Disarmament and Security, and its negotiating body, the Conference on Disarmament, for more than 40 years. The deadlock stems from a divide between advocates of a legal ban on space weapons and those favouring a focus on strengthening existing law through transparency measures and agreed norms of behaviour
→ To build confidence, priorities should include implementing measures for communication and observability; establishing norms of behaviour to enhance space situational awareness (SSA) and support safe rendezvous and proximity operations (RPOs), which are crucial for national technical verification; and developing new institutional mechanisms to implement commitments and address future compliance issues.
As diplomacy falters, threats are rising. An assessment from the Secure World Foundation shows that more countries are developing technologies to harm or disrupt space systems (Weeden and Samson 2024). The status quo on PAROS is untenable. Nuclear concerns could escalate the arms race and undermine the framework of the Outer Space Treaty (OST). The Security Council’s recent focus on space security highlights the inadequacies of current governance. The international community must reaffirm the consensus