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SU M M IT
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SUMMIT COLORADO FOURTH QUARTER 2021 MARKET REPORT Report Written By: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D. Source: Matrix Multiple Listing Service
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Nationally
By: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.
While 21Q3 GDP growth of 2.3% was a bit of a disappointment, preliminary estimates for 21Q4 growth look to be in the range of 5-6% despite the arrival of the Omicron variant of Covid-19 late in the quarter. Regrettably, Omicron is likely to do some meaningful damage to 22Q1, and instead of having growth somewhere in the ballpark of 5%, it is more likely to be in the range of 2-2.5%. It is important to note that these waves of Covid seem to generally push demand forward rather than reducing it permanently, and as such, I expect overall GDP growth in 2022 to be somewhere in the vicinity of 4%, which while down from what will likely wind up to be 5.5% for 2021, is still a great number. Looking even further into the future, 2023 should be a bit slower and end up somewhere around 2.5%, which is back to ‘normal’ as we slowly revert to trend growth.
“The Federal Reserve adjusted their approach to monetary policy in November as inflation concerns heightened, and they reduced their monthly purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed-securities such that they will no longer be making any purchases by the end of March 2022.” While a bit volatile, overall job growth was quite good in 2021 and should continue to do well into 2022, such that by the end of 2022 we will have recovered the remaining 3.4 million jobs that were lost during the pandemic and will be back to pre-Covid levels of employment. That would translate into roughly 285,000 new jobs per month in 2022, nearly double the pre-Covid number. Still, that leaves the United States millions of jobs shy of where we would have been in the absence of Covid. In other words, by the end of 2022, we will still be short 3-3.5 million jobs that we would have seen created in an economy without Covid. As for inflation, it is largely being driven by a combination of supply chain problems, an inability of suppliers to produce goods (due to input shortages and lack of available labor) and, simultaneously, unusually strong consumer demand, which is driven at least in part by forced savings and government payments. These inflationary effects are likely to peak in 22Q1 and should generally decline throughout the year, with inflation ending 2022 at 4%. The Federal Reserve adjusted their approach to monetary policy in November as inflation concerns heightened, and they reduced their monthly purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed-securities such that they will no longer be making any purchases by the end of March 2022. Initially, they had signaled that they would take a slightly longer time to taper. This leaves them free to further address inflation by raising interest rates as early as March of 2022. I expect them to raise rates at least twice, probably three times, and possibly as many as four times in 2022, with increases of a quarter-point each time, such that by the end of 2022, longterm rates and the 30-year mortgage rate in particular will increase by 0.5% to around 3.7%. As far as fiscal policy is concerned, it became contractionary in the second half of 2021 and is likely to remain quite contractionary through 2022, despite the passage of the infrastructure bill. In terms of the fate of the Biden administration’s “Build Back Better” or social infrastructure bill, prospects look increasingly weak, but it’s too early to write its obituary. It may be that in the end, parts of the bill make it through the legislative process, but unless that happens by mid-year, I see little likelihood that we will see much movement on it. In terms of the national housing market, it continues to go from strength to strength. While there were some hopes that available inventories would rise, that has so far not materialized, and year-over-year levels continue to decline. As we enter 2022 with inventories at record seasonal lows, elevated household formation, and good job growth, all expectations are that 2022 will be yet another strong seller’s market, despite the probability of higher interest rates. Regarding prices, it appears that at the national level price appreciation peaked several months ago and going forward we should see price gains weaken from the upper teens to the lower teens or upper single digits. Importantly, there are no indications that we are seeing anything like what we saw in 2005/2006 in the buildup to the housing bust of 2007/2008. Dodd-Frank has done much to guarantee that home buyers are truly qualified, what was then a housing glut is now a housing shortage, and interest rates, even as they rise somewhat in 2022, will remain at historical lows. This remains a very strong housing market.
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Colorado
Unemployment in Colorado is at 4.8% as of 12/2021, after hitting a peak of 12.1% in April 2020. For comparison, the pre-pandemic rate was 2.8%. Additionally, the most recent data released by the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment shows that the state has recovered nearly nine out of every ten jobs lost during the pandemic. Statewide continuing claims for unemployment hit a high of 265,499 for the week ended 5/16/20 (compared to a pre-pandemic level of 21,956) and are now at 20,040 for the week ended 01/08/22. In Pitkin County, the December unemployment rate is 4.1% and continues to steadily decline when seasonality is factored in. Still, despite elevated unemployment rates, many employers continue to have difficulty filling vacant positions, part of the ongoing impact of the “Great Resignation.”
“Active listings of inventory statewide hit an all-time low of 6,408 at the end of December, down 47.6% compared to December 2020 and represent just 0.6 month’s supply of inventory, well below the national average of 2.1 months.” Statewide, the December 2021 median price of a single-family home of $529,995 was 18% higher than December 2020, while the average price of $697,762 was 18.6% more. In the condo/townhome market, the median price compared to last year rose 10.6% to $385,000, while the average price rose 11.7% to $539,776. Through December 2021, closed sales across the state are down 8.8% while new listings are down 12.5% compared to 2020. Active listings of inventory statewide hit an all-time low of 6,408 at the end of December, down 47.6% compared to December 2020 and represent just 0.6 month’s supply of inventory, well below the national average of 2.1 months. Across the state, the percentage of list price received at sale is 100.8% and days-on-market is just 33 days, down from 43 at the end of December 2020.
BRECKENRIDGE
535 Delaware Drive, Breckenridge 6 BEDROOMS | 5.5 BATHROOMS | 4,683 SF
Single Family Homes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
30%
$1,683,750
2020 vs
$1,681,230
2020 vs
2021
Avg Sold Price per SF
$648
2020 vs
86
37%
$445,000
2021
$752,282,490
2020 vs
2021
Number of Properties Sold
56%
2020 vs
2021 Lowest Price Sale
$497
$546,399,743
$2,186,868
Avg Days on Market
30%
38%
38
325
2021
6%
2020 vs Highest Price Sale
25%
$1,350,000
Total Dollar Volume
143%
$17,000,000
344
2021
302 South Harris Street Unit# A, Breckenridge 3 BEDROOMS | 4.5 BATHROOMS | 1,996 SF
Condo/Townhomes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
$690,000
2020 vs
$806,000
$831,007
2020 vs
2021
Avg Sold Price per SF
28%
2020 vs
$859
59
2021
4%
$239,188
$376,446,260
$1,002,662
2021
Avg Days on Market
$454,205,685
2020 vs
2021
Number of Properties Sold
54%
2020 vs Lowest Price Sale
$672
21%
21%
453
27
2021
4%
2020 vs Highest Price Sale
17%
Total Dollar Volume
30%
$4,150,000
435
2021
KEYSTONE
Single Family Homes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
$1,565,000
17%
$1,810,000
2020 vs
$1,674,667
2021
2020 vs
Avg Sold Price per SF
$538
2020 vs
67
19% $500,000
2020 vs
2021
$62,651,001
2021
Number of Properties Sold
36%
2020 vs
2021 Lowest Price Sale
$429
$65,312,000
$1,957,844
Avg Days on Market
25%
4%
39
43
2021
18%
2020 vs Highest Price Sale
16%
Total Dollar Volume
21% $4,025,000
32
2021
Condo/Townhomes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
21%
$645,000
2020 vs
$586,379
2021
2020 vs
Avg Sold Price per SF
$678
2020 vs
68
2021
11% $250,000
2020 vs
2021
$187,771,084
2021
Number of Properties Sold
44%
2020 vs Lowest Price Sale
$548
$155,976,924
$708,570
Avg Days on Market
24%
20%
38
266
2021
0%
2020 vs Highest Price Sale
18%
$545,000
Total Dollar Volume
87% $2,810,000
265
2021
COPPER MOUNTAIN
Single Family Homes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
27%
25%
$3,850,000
2020 vs
$3,092,000
2021
2020 vs
Avg Sold Price per SF
2020 vs
129
2021
$3,850,000
$12,368,000
2021
2020 vs
2020 vs
$3,850,000
2021
Number of Properties Sold
97%
$605
43%
$3,850,000
Avg Days on Market
Lowest Price Sale
$583
4%
69%
4
4
2021
75%
2020 vs Highest Price Sale
$3,034,000
Total Dollar Volume
7% $3,850,000
1
2021
800 Copper Road Unit #104, Copper Mountain 2 BEDROOMS | 3 BATHROOMS | 1,358 SF
Condo/Townhomes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
13%
$730,000
2020 vs
$646,147
2021
2020 vs
Avg Sold Price per SF
2020 vs
$730
64
2021
70% $167,000
$68,491,570
2021
$76,669,522
2020 vs
2021
Number of Properties Sold
78%
2020 vs Lowest Price Sale
$611
$730,186
Avg Days on Market
19%
12%
14
106
2021
1%
2020 vs Highest Price Sale
30%
$562,500
Total Dollar Volume
9% $2,095,000
105
2021
SILVERTHORNE/DILLON
160 Hamilton Creek Trail, Silverthorne 6 BEDROOMS | 6.5 BATHROOMS | 7,445 SF
Single Family Homes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
40%
30%
$1,002,159
$1,250,000
2020 vs
2021
2020 vs
Avg Sold Price per SF
$492
2020 vs
43
2021
21% $620,000
$49,105,800
2021
2020 vs
$77,899,791
2021
Number of Properties Sold
56%
2020 vs Lowest Price Sale
$373
$1,298,330
Avg Days on Market
32%
59%
19
49
2021
22%
2020 vs Highest Price Sale
$890,000
Total Dollar Volume
78% $3,500,000
60
2021
Condo/Townhomes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
31%
$478,131
$590,000
2020 vs
2021
2020 vs
Avg Sold Price per SF
70
$585
2020 vs
2021
4% $191,608
2020 vs
2021
$103,575,974
2021
Number of Properties Sold
86%
2020 vs Lowest Price Sale
$463
$76,979,117
$627,733
Avg Days on Market
26%
35%
161
10
2%
2020 vs
2021 Highest Price Sale
35%
$438,000
Total Dollar Volume
6% $1,605,000
165
2021
FRISCO
Single Family Homes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
26%
$1,404,839
$1,760,000
2020 vs
2021
2020 vs
Avg Sold Price per SF
37%
$674
2020 vs
67
2021
44% $357,450
$51,979,045
$1,858,784
2020 vs
2021
Avg Days on Market
$66,916,213
2021
Number of Properties Sold
84%
2020 vs Lowest Price Sale
$492
29%
32%
11
37
2021
3%
2020 vs Highest Price Sale
$1,400,000
Total Dollar Volume
61% $3,300,000
36
2021
95 Riverside Place Unit #A, Frisco 3 BEDROOMS | 3.5 BATHROOMS | 2,438 SF
Condo/Townhomes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
$622,250
2020 vs
23%
$789,000
$706,524
2021
2020 vs
Avg Sold Price per SF
2020 vs
$691
31
2021
25% $261,178
$120,109,003
2021
2020 vs
$142,394,271
2021
Number of Properties Sold
68%
2020 vs Lowest Price Sale
$548
$868,258
Avg Days on Market
26%
19%
10
170
2021
4%
2020 vs Highest Price Sale
27%
Total Dollar Volume
23% $2,085,000
164
2021
PARK COUNTY
31 Forest Way, Fairplay
4 BEDROOMS | 3 BATHROOMS | 1,848 SF
Single Family Homes Average Sold Price
34%
$395,000
$414,358
$531,000
2020 vs
Avg Sold Price per SF
34%
$334
2020 vs
73
98% $144,900
$134,666,348
2020 vs
2021
$191,548,939
2021
Number of Properties Sold
53%
2020 vs
2021
42%
$560,085
Avg Days on Market
Lowest Price Sale
$250
35%
2020 vs
2021
Total Dollar Volume
34
325
2021
5%
2020 vs Highest Price Sale
Median Sold Price
3% $1,390,000
342
2021
Condo/Townhomes Average Sold Price
56%
$350,000
$319,333
$547,000
2020 vs
Avg Sold Price per SF
25%
$234
2020 vs
24
43% $369,000
$958,000
$3,648,000
2020 vs
2021
2021
Number of Properties Sold
325%
2020 vs
2021
281%
$608,000
Avg Days on Market
Lowest Price Sale
$187
90%
2020 vs
2021
Total Dollar Volume
102
3
2021
100%
2020 vs Highest Price Sale
Median Sold Price
214% $1,100,000
6
2021
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