IN-DEPTH BRIEFING // #56 // JULY 23
STRATEGIC EMPATHY
UNDERSTANDING CHINA’S PERCEPTION OF TAIWAN TO UNDERSTAND THE THREAT
AUTHOR Captain Ben Cutter is a Chief of the General Staff Fellow studying a Masters degree in Conflict, Security and Development at the University of Exeter
The Centre for Historical Analysis and Conflict Research is the British Army’s think tank and tasked with enhancing the conceptual component of its fighting power. The views expressed in this In Depth Briefing are those of the author, and not of the CHACR, Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, Ministry of Defence or the British Army. The aim of the briefing is to provide a neutral platform for external researchers and experts to offer their views on critical issues. This document cannot be reproduced or used in part or whole without the permission of the CHACR. www.chacr.org.uk
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ESCRIBED as the most dangerous place on Earth,1 the risk posed to international security and global economic stability by a conflict in the Taiwan Strait has been at the forefront of contemporary foreign and security policy debates. With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine heralding the return of military force as a tool for great powers to pursue territorial revisionism, concerns over the
1 The Economist. The Most Dangerous Place on Earth: America and China Must Work Harder to Avoid War Over the Future of Taiwan. May 21.
Kerry Brown and Kalley Wu Tzu-Hui. The Trouble with Taiwan: History, the United States and a Rising China. Zed Books. 2019. P54
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Brown and Wu. The Trouble with Taiwan. P32
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threat posed to Taiwan by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have grown. However, to fully understand the risk of conflict in the Strait, it is necessary to look beyond the media headlines and political posturing and to examine the underlying dynamics that shape the PRC’s perception of Taiwan and the threat it poses to it. WHY UNDERSTANDING CHINA’S PERSPECTIVE MATTERS The PRC’s political and security considerations fundamentally define the cross-strait environment. As the actor whose long-term objectives pose the greatest threat to the status quo, the PRC and its strategy for achieving its goals in the Taiwan Strait, will play a pivotal role in driving the evolution of cross-strait
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relations and their impact on the wider international environment. Consequently, understanding these considerations and their impact on the PRC’s interpretation of key issues and events is an essential pre-requisite for understanding the long-term trajectory of PRCTaiwan relations. WHY TAIWAN MATTERS TO THE PRC Any attempt to understand the PRC’s perception of Taiwan must consider why Taiwan occupies a position of such political significance for it and the implications this has for its framing of the Taiwan dispute. For the PRC, Taiwan’s significance as a physical space is limited,2 a factor that has influenced Taiwan’s marginalisation by the mainland’s rulers for much of its history.3 Instead, it is Taiwan’s symbolic