IN-DEPTH BRIEFING // #65 // SEPTEMBER 23
BALLOT BOX BOUNTY
AUTHOR
Sebastian Raj Pender Research Fellow at Rutgers University and CHACR
The Centre for Historical Analysis and Conflict Research is the British Army’s think tank and tasked with enhancing the conceptual component of its fighting power. The views expressed in this In Depth Briefing are those of the author, and not of the CHACR, Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, Ministry of Defence or the British Army. The aim of the briefing is to provide a neutral platform for external researchers and experts to offer their views on critical issues. This document cannot be reproduced or used in part or whole without the permission of the CHACR. www.chacr.org.uk
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OME to half a million people and measuring just 115 square miles of land distributed over nearly 1,200 inhabited and uninhabited islands, the Maldives is Asia’s smallest country by both population and landmass. However, given its location a few hundred miles south-southwest of India – from where it overlooks some of the world’s busiest sea lanes, which link resource and energy hungry Asian markets with the Middle East – the tiny island nation is of far greater geostrategic significance than its diminutive size might suggest. Accordingly, the history of these islands has been shaped to a great extent by powerful empires that have recognised their significance and sought to exploit their strategic value. With China now actively attempting to secure greater control of the Indian Ocean region as part of the Belt and Road Initiative, India and
Picture: Ekmeds Photos/unsplash
WHY THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE IN THE MALDIVES MATTERS TO POWER COMPETITION IN SOUTH ASIA
China are finding themselves jostling for influence in Malé, the country’s densely populated capital, as part of the broader Sino-Indian competition for dominance in South Asia which is increasingly coming to structure the region politically. While India has enjoyed a period of considerable influence since the Maldivian Democratic Party’s Ibrahim Mohamed Solih replaced Abdulla Yameen’s pro-China Progressive Party of Maldives, it now looks likely that the country is swinging away from its neighbour and back into China’s orbit. Though Yameen was unable to stand for election due to his recent conviction on corruption charges, Mohamed Muizzu, Malé’s popular Mayor, ran as the party’s candidate and secured 46 per cent of the vote compared to Solih’s 39 per cent. Although the Maldivian constitution requires a candidate to win an absolute majority to secure office, and otherwise mandates a runoff between the top
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two candidates which, in this case, has been set for 30th September, Solih will likely struggle to close such a significant gap. Victory for Muizzu would therefore represent a significant opportunity for China to increase its influence and potentially its presence in India’s backyard with security implications for New Delhi and therefore potential ramifications for Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy. MALDIVES: THE TOLL GATE OF THE INDIAN OCEAN The Indian Ocean has historically been criss-crossed by trade networks with commodities including spice, textiles, and gold being transported to markets across the region for several millennia. Today the ocean continues to be a congested body of water with around half of the world’s container ships and over two-thirds of the world’s crude oil shipments traversing its length and breadth annually. With countries across the region