IN-DEPTH BRIEFING // #84 // DECEMBER 24
AUTHOR
Dr Sebastian Raj Pender CHACR Research Fellow
A MISSED OPPORTUNITY BUT NOT AN OPPORTUNITY LOST
T The Centre for Historical Analysis and Conflict Research is the British Army’s think tank and tasked with enhancing the conceptual component of its fighting power. The views expressed in this In Depth Briefing are those of the author, and not of the CHACR, Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, Ministry of Defence, British Army or US Army. The aim of the briefing is to provide a neutral platform for external researchers and experts to offer their views on critical issues. This document cannot be reproduced or used in part or whole without the permission of the CHACR. www.chacr.org.uk
HE 16th BRICS Summit, held in late October 2024, marked the conclusion of a four-year stint of heightened tensions between India and China. Triggered by the Galwan Valley crisis in 2020, this period was characterised by mutual military build-ups, aggressive posturing, heated political discourse and an escalation of nationalist rhetoric. Given the heightened threat of conflict between these two nucleararmed powers, the warm handshakes and conciliatory gestures exchanged between President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit were rightly celebrated by the international community for helping to restore stability to the region.1 Though the Galwan crisis
resulted in a regrettable escalation of tensions along the contested border, it also opened a critical window of opportunity for Western governments. Confronted with its vulnerabilities in the face of an emboldened China, India became increasingly proactive in seeking external support to counterbalance Beijing’s growing assertiveness. This created a unique chance for the US, UK and their allies to not only strengthen defence partnerships with New Delhi but also align their strategic interests in countering China’s influence across the Indo-Pacific. Seen from this perspective, the Galwan moment was marked by both substantial achievements and squandered potential. While significant strides were made in areas like joint initiatives and technology sharing, missteps in diplomatic messaging and
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an overemphasis on shared democratic values undermined the momentum. Though the West may have missed the full opportunity presented by the Galwan moment, however, this does not mean future chances to strengthen ties with India are lost. While the current thaw in Sino-Indian dynamics offers a sunny short-term forecast for their bilateral relationship, structural tensions – rooted in territorial disputes, competing ambitions and regional dynamics – ensure that the two Asian powers remain locked in a longterm geopolitical struggle. Over the next decade, these tensions are only likely to intensify,
Krishn Kaushik and Ethan Wang, ‘BRICS Summit: China and India should manage differences, Xi tells Modi’, Reuters, 23 October 2024.
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