IN-DEPTH BRIEFING // #78 // AUGUST 24
MITIGATING THE MILITARY CHALLENGES OF
AUTHOR
Major Thomas Kinson Student ICSC(L) Course, Land Command and Staff College
The Centre for Historical Analysis and Conflict Research is the British Army’s think tank and tasked with enhancing the conceptual component of its fighting power. The views expressed in this In Depth Briefing are those of the author, and not of the CHACR, Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, Ministry of Defence, British Army or US Army. The aim of the briefing is to provide a neutral platform for external researchers and experts to offer their views on critical issues. This document cannot be reproduced or used in part or whole without the permission of the CHACR. www.chacr.org.uk
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MEGACITIES
C
ITIES develop because the ground they occupy has some form of economic, geographic or cultural significance. Because of this, they have long had a strategic importance in warfare. One of the earliest recorded battles in 15th century BCE was fought over the control of the city of Megiddo due to its strategic location monitoring trade routes through the Levent.1 Ever since cities have been vital ground in conflict; from Carthage to Stalingrad, battles over cities have been turning points in war. However, the importance of cities in war is increasing, and most importantly how they have been fought over has changed. Historically battles for cities would be conducted in the form of a siege or – due to their relatively small size – they could often be isolated and bypassed. However, with growing scale, urbanisation and connectivity this has become increasingly difficult, forcing militaries to fight in cities – something that presents a set of unique challenges to contemporary commanders at all levels. This In-Depth Briefing will argue that the world has seen a
significant change in the urban environment. The growth of megacities has created increasingly large and densely populated urban environments, with cities becoming more connected and significant drivers for economic growth. This has in turn increased their military significance. This development in the urban environment has also led to new and unique challenges for contemporary commanders in the form of command and control, the information environment and logistics. These challenges can, however, see a degree of mitigation by improved mission command, training and the employment of developing technologies and intelligence. Whilst many of the challenges and mitigation will be focused on the operational and tactical level of command2 they will also touch on command at the strategic and even political level – because as will be demonstrated, urban warfare has the effect of significantly shrinking the gaps between the various levels of command. FROM CITY TO MEGACITY In 1950 only 30 per cent of the world’s population lived in urban areas, however, by 2018 55 per cent of the global population was urbanised; this is predicted to rise to 66 per cent by 2050.3
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This has coincided with the rise in the size of cities; in 1990 there were 10 megacities,4 by 2018 this had risen to 33, with a prediction there will be 43 by 2030.5 The size of cities has not been the only transformation – urbanisation has been driven by the increasing economic importance of cities. As noted by Grübler and Fisk, 80 per cent of the world’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is now generated in cities.6 Since 1978 and the period of ‘reform and opening’ the percentage of GDP generated in China from agriculture, forestry and fishing – predominantly rural economic sectors – has dropped André Geraque Kiffer, Battle of Megiddo, April 1479 BC (Clube de Autores, 2019), p.10.
1
Divisional command and below.
2
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, “World Urbanization Prospects: The 2018 Revision,” Population and Development Review, 2019, 1–103, doi.org/10.2307/2808041, p.9.
3
Defined by the United Nations as a city of 10 million or more.
4
United Nations, “World Urbanization”, p.58.
5
Arnulf Grubler and David Fisk, Energizing Sustainable Cities, Routledge EBooks (Informa, 2012), doi. org/10.4324/9780203110126.
6