IN-DEPTH BRIEFING // #76 // JUNE 24
THE GROWING REACH OF REGIONAL UNREST: KOREA, THE UK AND THE EMERGING EURASIA THEATRE
AUTHOR
Major Rocco P. Santurri III US Army Civil Affairs and Psychological Operations Command
The Centre for Historical Analysis and Conflict Research is the British Army’s think tank and tasked with enhancing the conceptual component of its fighting power. The views expressed in this In Depth Briefing are those of the author, and not of the CHACR, Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, Ministry of Defence, British Army or US Army. The aim of the briefing is to provide a neutral platform for external researchers and experts to offer their views on critical issues. This document cannot be reproduced or used in part or whole without the permission of the CHACR. www.chacr.org.uk
I
T is not embellishment to say that these are troubled times in our world – the relative ‘order’ during the Cold War and the peace dividend after it has long expired. Israel’s military adventure into Gaza continues, escalation with Hezbollah is a distinct possibility, the Houthis continue to target global shipping, and tensions have surged in Mali. Additionally, conflicts persist in Ethiopia, Colombia, Bangladesh and Georgia. While significant, they pale compared to broader conflicts, actualised or anticipated, that represent a global threat. War in Ukraine continues to menace the European continent. A Russian victory, warns Polish President Duda, puts Russia on Poland’s border and might encourage Putin to re-enact previous Soviet incursions against its long-time adversary and propel Europe into even greater turmoil. Putin’s recent remarks regarding the use of nuclear weapons and NATO being “defenceless” certainly have not assuaged fears throughout Alliance capitals. However, lurking amongst these scenarios
is perhaps an even more significant threat: the risk of war on the Korean Peninsula and the implications it could present to the UK and the West.
“We will have no hesitation in annihilating [South Korea] by mobilising all means and forces in our hands.” – North Korea Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un The prospects of war between North Korea and South Korea, officially the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) and the Republic of Korea (ROK), respectively, are frightening for reasons both obvious and less apparent. Technically still at war, the two sides maintain an uneasy armistice that vacillates between shared dreams of unification and vitriolic threats of destruction. China, officially the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Russia and the United States have also played significant roles in events in the region while adding to the threat of a nuclear war between great powers. Currently, tensions are running hot. Kim Jong Un, the DPRK’s ‘Supreme Leader’ and ‘Great Comrade’, has all but abandoned any hope of reunification, recently amending
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his nation’s constitution to establish the ROK as his country’s “principal enemy”. The UK also has a card to play in the region through organisations and treaties; it remains a core member of the United Nations Command, tasked with enforcing the armistice and repelling another DPRK invasion. Additionally, with AUKUS steadily asserting itself, developments in the South China Sea could entangle the UK in unexpected conflict. The recent harrying of a Norwegian ship by a Chinese jet is but a hint of the increasingly contested space in the region. Within the context of that sobering realisation, an analysis of inter-Korean relations is undoubtedly warranted; it would be in the UK’s interest to pay greater attention to the current environment in Northeast Asia, assess the probability of escalation and, ultimately, determine the effects it could have on its interests in the region. While an urgent but seemingly regional inquiry, an even more significant Korea-related threat looms for the UK in an area much closer to home: continental Europe. Currently, developments