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VIEWS FROM THE NORTH

AUTHOR

Professor Andrew Stewart Head of Conflict Research, CHACR

The Centre for Historical Analysis and Conflict Research is the British Army’s think tank and tasked with enhancing the conceptual component of its fighting power. The views expressed in this In Depth Briefing are those of the author, and not of the CHACR, Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, Ministry of Defence, British Army or US Army. The aim of the briefing is to provide a neutral platform for external researchers and experts to offer their views on critical issues. This document cannot be reproduced or used in part or whole without the permission of the CHACR. www.chacr.org.uk

(AND ON THE NORTH)

HE current year has witnessed an unprecedented level of interest in a Northern Hemisphere region where the first challenge is definitions and agreeing names. There is some confusion between Scandinavia (a geographic core of Norway, Sweden and Denmark) and Nordic (in which Finland, Iceland and the autonomous areas of the Faroe Islands, Greenland and Åland are added) and it seems commonly accepted that they can be interchangeable.1 How ever they are termed, these northern European states have confirmed themselves through recent collective diplomatic and defence activities as representing a key obstacle to any possible future Russian military adventuring. With a 1,340 kilometre land border and littorals that border the

Baltic, Norway and Barents Seas into the waters of ‘High North’ (a geographic link between North America and Europe and “a strategic nexus” for one leading Icelandic politician), they provide NATO with a newly expanded and much strengthened north-eastern flank and offer an active first line of defence containing any further aspirations in Moscow for redrawing maps. While there has been some scrutiny of the ‘Total Defence’ concept, practised with greater and lesser effectiveness across the region, and its focus on civil-military co-operation and resilience, this is a region also offering more overt indicators of military preparation. Following on from the 2023 Integrated Review Refresh – which made specific reference to the importance to Britain

1 // IN-DEPTH BRIEFING // CHACR

of northern Europe – and with long historical links and continuing close relationships at the political and military levels, this is a region which is of the utmost importance and will need prominent reference in discussions connected with any future defence review. It was a lengthy joining process but Sweden’s confirmation as the 32nd Member State in March, following Finland’s entry in April 2023, completed the latest stage in the Alliance’s evolution and represented not just another expansion but a geostrategic reorientation. With the 75th anniversary of its establishment only weeks away, this is a momentous period for NATO and a potential inflection point The UN offers little help, they sit in the ‘Western European and Other States’, a regional grouping of 29 countries which also includes New Zealand and the United States as an observer.

IN-DEPTH BRIEFING // #74 // MAY 24