CHACRDIGEST
MAY 30th, 2025
The views expressed in this Digest are not those of the British Army or UK Government. This document cannot be reproduced or used in part or whole without the permission of the CHACR. chacr.org.uk
STORM CLOUDS SHROUD RETURN TO ‘GREAT-POWER’ PEACE An English folk rhyme foretells that ‘March winds and April showers, bring forth May flowers’. After the geopolitical storms in March and April, renewed conflict between India and Pakistan, an Israeli offensive in Gaza, Russian sponsored sabotage across Europe, and indications of increased Chinese military preparedness suggest, sadly, there appears very little prospect of ‘flowers’ any time soon. Meanwhile the 80th anniversary of VE Day enabled many to reflect on the value of history, the fragmentation of the international order established after the end of the Second World War and the realities of global conflict. Antony Beevor’s article in Foreign Affairs highlights that clashing world-views remain a source of tension and instability in global politics whilst the increasing loss of a direct connection to the Second World War means losing the shared resolve that for 80 years has produced an unbroken, if highly imperfect, great-power peace. Beevor concludes: “The end of World War II paved the way for a new international order based on respect for national sovereignty and borders. But now, a steep bill for American ambivalence, European complacency, and Russian revanchism may finally be coming due.”
INDO-PACIFIC REGION On 7 May, India launched Operation Sindoor, the targeting of “terrorist infrastructure” in Pakistan and Kashmir following attacks in India on 22 April. Commentators rushed to make sense of renewed open conflict between two nuclear powers, hampered by significant mis- and disinformation that continue to cloud what actually happened. Three articles are particularly worth exploring. The Royal United Services Institute points out that a lack of public engagement by India enabled a PR win for Pakistan and Chinese arms manufacturers following reports that Chinese-built J-10s shot down up to five Indian aircraft, including French-made Rafaels. Interestingly, analysis now suggests Pakistani vulnerability to Indian air attack. However, the article highlights that, more importantly, India accepted heightened operational risk as a consequence of limited rules of engagement. The article concludes India sought to degrade a specific terrorist ecosystem and was able to avoid a conflict with the Pakistani state through clear strategic messaging. For specific analysis of tactical actions – including the first use of cruise missiles by India and conventionally armed short-range ballistic missiles by Pakistan – read Professor Chris Clary’s Working Paper for The Stimson Center. The Financial Times traces the May conflict back to the stripping of Jammu and Kashmir of its special autonomous status by Prime Minister Modi in 2019. This brought it under New Delhi’s direct rule and led to downgraded diplomatic and economic ties with Pakistan.
CHINA The Lowy Institute points out that over the past year President Xi Jinping has ‘purged’ former Defence Ministers Generals Wei Fenghe and Li Shangfu for violating “political discipline” and Admiral Miao Hua, Defence Minister Dong Jun and CMC Vice Chairman
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