CHACRDIGEST
FEBRUARY 28th, 2025
#41
24 February 2025 marked the third anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine and the day the USA twice voted with Russia (and against European partners) at the UN. In such confusing times, commentators are trying to work out if they should take President Trump literally, or not, and whether the ‘madman theory’ is merely a tactic or a character trait. However, what is clear, as set out eloquently by Sir Alex Younger, the former Chief of MI6, is that “we are in a new era, where international relations aren’t going to be determined by rules and multilateral institutions, they are going to be determined by strong men and deals”.
THE INTERNATIONAL RULES BASED ORDER Commenting on the challenging relationship between Presidents Zelensky and Trump on Newsnight, Sir Alex Younger said that the USA had lost the means, will and ability to impose rules on the world and highlighted the distinction between Trump’s view of the Ukraine conflict being about territory and President Putin’s view that it is about the existence of Ukraine as a country. This was reflected in wider commentary about the impact of the changing transatlantic relationship, established since the end of the Second World War. Wolfgang Munchau, a former associate editor of the Financial Times, opined in an UnHerd article that Europe and America were parting ways as a result of divergence on Ukraine, free speech and trade. What is apparent to all the commentators, and expressed clearly in The Economist and by Bronwen Maddox for Chatham House, is that whilst Europe’s leaders and people have not yet come to terms with the “electroshock” expressed by President Macron, America can no longer be counted on to come to Europe’s aid and “Europe needs to re-learn how to wield hard power in a lawless era, or fall victim to the new world disorder”. Edward Lucas, writing for the Center for European Policy Analysis, stressed that “while Western countries still pretend a quiet life is possible, seen from Russia, the war has already started”. RUSI’s Dr Jack Watling emphasised that the position of the new US administration represented “more consistency than change” and that change was required by European treasuries to demonstrate action rather than rhetoric.
RUSSIA AND UKRAINE There has been significant commentary from RUSI, coinciding with the third anniversary of the full-scale invasion, on lessons from Ukraine and recommendations for NATO, tactical military developments and advice for Ukraine. The Institute for Strategic Studies’ Military Balance blog noted that Russia’s defence spending in 2024 ($462 billion) exceeded the collective total for Europe ($457 billion). It forecast a further 13.7 per cent increase in 2025, leading to circa 7.5 per cent of GDP and 40 per cent of total federal spending. Such figures led the Danish National Intelligence to warn of a major war in Europe within five years “[with Russia] against one or more European NATO countries if it perceives NATO as militarily weakened or politically divided”. In addition, it concluded that within six months Russia could conduct a local war with a bordering country, and a regional war in the Baltic Sea region within two years. It was also noted by S&P Global that a sharp decline in Russia’s wheat exports is likely to create a significant supply gap, affect global wheat prices and generate potential flashpoints around the world in the coming months. There were also interesting articles about the efforts of Ukraine and European nations to restrict Russia’s freedom of action. Ranging from the more lethal, with exploding Russian FPV drone pilot goggles, to Finnish, Estonian, Lithuanian and EU actions to seize Russia’s shadow fleet (and Russian objections) as part of an increased recognition that Russian ‘hybrid attacks’ should simply be referred to as ‘attacks’. The views expressed in this Digest are not those of the British Army or UK Government. This document cannot be reproduced or used in part or whole without the permission of the CHACR. chacr.org.uk
1 // WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND UKRAINE // CHACR DIGEST