CHACRDIGEST
DECEMBER 19th, 2024
#39
The views expressed in this Digest are not those of the British Army or UK Government. This document cannot be reproduced or used in part or whole without the permission of the CHACR. chacr.org.uk
2024 continues to cause analysts and citizens of the world to look on aghast at events. In December, in the shadow of a NATO foreign ministers meeting, South Korea’s President unsuccessfully imposed martial law and an Islamist group forced Bashar Al-Assad to flee Damascus. With 2025 rapidly approaching, many commentators are predicting what the new year will bring. The Economist’s The World Ahead 2025 is well worth a read. It warns of threats to Myanmar’s junta, the global fallout of Sudan’s civil war and the potential impact of protests in Georgia on the strategic balance in the Black Sea. Equally, the ongoing evolution in post-coup South Korea and an Israeli strike on Iran are potential flashpoints. More pithily it highlights that three forces will shape 2025 – Donald Trump, technology and radical uncertainty – whilst warning that if Europe wants peace, it must plan for war.
EU / NATO The recently appointed NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte opened the North Atlantic Council on the 4th December with a declaration that “North America and Europe have always been stronger and safer together in NATO and a strong Transatlantic bond is essential… in an age of global uncertainty” but also warned European countries to dramatically increase defence spending. The message seems to have worked. On the 15th December, Greece almost doubled Defence spending from €3.6 Billion to €6.1 billion. Meanwhile, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock did not rule out sending German troops to Ukraine as part of a wider European deployment to enforce a peace settlement alongside a renewed 700-strong NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine programme based in Wiesbaden. And the German Marshall Fund published an interesting article outlining Poland’s strong defence and security focus for its presidency of the European Union in 2025, a presidency that, for the first time, will work with an EU Commissioner for Defence as outlined by the newly appointed Andrius Kubilius in Politico. However, in the days running up to NATO’s foreign ministers meeting in Brussels on the 10th December, President (elect) Donald Trump’s interview with NBC alarmed leaders across Europe. In response to questions, Trump noted that he would consider reducing military aid to Ukraine, withdrawing from NATO and then demanded on his social media platform, Truth Social, “an immediate ceasefire and negotiations”. Nevertheless, the threat to Europe remains very real. The Czech Foreign Minister declared publicly that up to 100 hybrid attacks including cyber-attacks, arson and sabotage have been conducted by Russia across Europe in 2024. An Institute for the Study of War paper published this month includes declassified Romanian intelligence on Russian interference in the recent Romanian election. In the UK, the National Cyber Security Centre’s Annual Review 2024 reported a three-fold increase in serious cyber-attacks over the past year and warned of underestimating the severity of “real and enduring threats” from China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. All of which has prompted NATO to urgently increase intelligence sharing and mutual protection of critical infrastructure, especially after damage to a data cable between Sweden and Finland in early December.
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