CHACRDIGEST
DECEMBER 2nd, 2024
Picture: Liam Enea/CC BY-SA 2.0
#38
The views expressed in this Digest are not those of the British Army or UK Government. This document cannot be reproduced or used in part or whole without the permission of the CHACR. chacr.org.uk
November 2024 witnessed the re-election of Donald J Trump as President of the United States – a result that could have consequential ramifications for specific countries and regions around the world, as extensively covered by Chatham House. The month also saw – amongst other events – a G20 summit, UN climate talks in Azerbaijan, a tentative Israel/Hizbollah ceasefire, an escalation in US permissions to Ukraine and a Russia-North Korea defence treaty that, according to one commentator, marks the beginning of “a global war, the goal of which is to destroy the existing international system”.
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Chatham House highlighted unpredictability and inconsistency as hallmarks of Trump’s first presidency, a term initially considered an aberration. The US’s allies now fear he might sacrifice Western values and accelerate a new (but equally unpredictable) transactional world order in his second presidency. The approach of European leaders is split: some are seeking to develop strategic autonomy by ‘Trump-proofing’ whilst others are seeking the best bilateral they can, a factor that may impact European defence industrial cooperation. Nevertheless, say the commentators, considering Trump an aberration won’t work anymore, countries need to adapt to the new international order. Bronwen Maddox at Chatham House highlighted the most likely immediate global impact to be tariffs on Chinese goods with a potential economic blow to European growth, especially if China dump overproduction in Europe, causing Europe to compete with an influx of cheaper Chinese goods. In foreign policy terms, negotiations over Ukraine, normalisation of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia (including Israeli commitment to a Palestinian state) and withdrawal from global climate talks are likely to dominate. Trump’s ‘America First’ foreign policy will likely result in varying degrees of withdrawal from international organisations; creating a vacuum that China, who’s sovereignty based alternative to Western-led universal human rights is gaining traction, will exploit. Equally, China’s influence in the UN and on international climate cooperation will allow them to increasingly shape emerging global norms. In sum, world events will be less affected by US-China relations than on each country’s increasing (or decreasing) relationship with the rest of the world. RUSI’s article on Türkiye balancing relations in order to develop their own place in a global technology/ artificial intelligence race builds on this concept. As does the Chatham House article on Egypt’s purchase of a Chinese fighter jet, which emphasises the employment of Cold War-esque tactics of diversification and counterbalancing. In ‘special relationship’ terms, Maddox is clear significant current and historic barriers will prevent a close personal relationship between Trump and the Starmer Government.
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