CHACRDIGEST
OCTOBER 28th, 2024
#37
Following a month to challenge any analyst, October has barely left chance to draw breath as world events escalate and expand at staggering speed. What follows is a short digest of what to read and where to read it for those wishing to start to understand some of those events, drawing on the very best from academia, think tanks and the media.
The views expressed in this Digest are not those of the British Army or UK Government. This document cannot be reproduced or used in part or whole without the permission of the CHACR. chacr.org.uk
ISRAEL / GAZA / LEBANON It has been yet another traumatic month in Israel, Gaza, Lebanon and the wider region. Starting with Israeli troops crossing into southern Lebanon for “limited, localised and targeted raids” on the 30th September, Israel has continued to strike Hizbullah while Iran launched between 180 and 200 ballistic missiles at Israel on the 1st October. The growing tension and escalation have led Israel’s relationship with America to be the subject of intense debate and discussion. US national security adviser Jake Sullivan declared that US intelligence had helped Israel find and kill Yahya Sinwar. In addition, the US announced the deployment of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) battery to Israel although, indicative of the current character of conflict, bloggers revealed its location using open source information. Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at RUSI, wrote that Iran’s missile attack is a challenge Israel can’t ignore and so it proved with Israel targeting missile factories near Tehran on the 26th October and reportedly killing two Iranian soldiers. However, Israel has not enjoyed universal US support. The announcement of the THAAD battery deployment was timed to coincide with an ultimatum stressing the urgency of greater humanitarian assistance to Gaza; specifically enabling a minimum of 350 trucks to enter Gaza per day – “failure to demonstrate a sustained commitment to implementing and maintaining these measures may have implications for U.S. policy ... and relevant U.S. law”. In response, Israel let 50 aid trucks into northern Gaza. However, a number of commentators have written on the strategic imperative to resolve the conflict between Israel and Iran, noting that negotiation with the Palestinian Authority, Palestinian Liberation Organization or a Hizbullah ceasefire will not provide a lasting solution. Writing for Chatham House, Sir John Jenkins recommends degrading Iran’s ability to disrupt regional order by dismantling its influence in the region. Drawing on separate research for Policy Exchange, the article recommends reintroducing sanctions, targeting the funding of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and building better alliances among regional countries. The article is clear only the US can lead this collective effort. Equally, it identifies the importance of the bulk of Israeli society endorsing Palestinian self-determination, despite the emotional impact of the 7th October attacks.
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