CHACRDIGEST
SEPTEMBER 30th, 2024
#36
The views expressed in this Digest are not those of the British Army or UK Government. This document cannot be reproduced or used in part or whole without the permission of the CHACR. chacr.org.uk
A week, according to Harold Wilson, is a long time in [geo] politics so the prospect of compiling a monthly digest signposting the most insightful articles from across the world is always going to be a difficult task. Whilst the word ‘unprecedented’ is regularly misused and often reflects a poor grasp of history (‘unfamiliar’ is perhaps more fitting), a week has been a very long time in the global events of September 2024.
ISRAEL / GAZA On the 18th September Israel, according to Hezbollah’s late leader Nasrallah, crossed red lines and made a declaration of war. Israel’s audacious series of attacks on pagers and walkie talkies, seemingly 15 years in the planning, killed at least 37 people and injured thousands of Hezbollah members. The escalation was widely covered. Bronwen Maddox at Chatham House stressed that whilst Israel’s intelligence agencies may have sought to repair their reputation after the failure of the Hamas attack on the 7th October and deter Hezbollah, in reality their actions will not enable Binyamin Netanyahu to “return the residents of the north safely to their homes”. Ultimately, she concluded, Israel risks regional escalation without a strategy for peace. It is also notable that Israel seems to have ignored the concerns of US and regional neighbours, evidenced perhaps by the timing of the attacks only a day after the US diplomatic envy, Amos Hochstein, visited Israel to discourage escalation. In addition to American powerlessness, commentators – including Urban Coningham for RUSI – have emphasised that Israel has demonstrated Iran’s weakness in protecting their proxy Hezbollah. In effect “Hezbollah’s military arsenal is virtually paralysed” according to Lina Khatib (Chatham House) whilst Emile Hokayem at IISS noted ‘Hizbullah’ has been outgunned and outwitted and now faces its greatest test to date. Notably RUSI identified wider implications around increased global scrutiny on supply-chain sabotage and, at the time of writing, the most intense strikes on southern Lebanon in over a year suggest an impending ground offensive to inflict on Hezbollah “an increasing price”.
RUSSIA / UKRAINE President Putin, speaking to the Russian Security Council on the 25th September, revised Russian nuclear doctrine and warned Western countries of “war” if they allowed Ukraine to strike targets in Russia using NATO provided weapons. This follows what the IISS called the US and UK’s clumsy indecision on lifting restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Western precision missiles. President Biden and Prime Minister Starmer expressed “deep concern” about Iran and North Korea supplying weapons to Russia and POLITICO quoted US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s statement that Russia had received Iranian ballistic missiles and will likely use them in Ukraine within weeks to “threaten wider European security”. Of even greater escalatory concern is a Reuters article, citing a European intelligence agency, that reports a long range attack UAV weapons programme has been established in China for use by Russia. Meanwhile, the US have increased security assistance to Ukraine (more armoured fighting vehicles, anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles and ammunition for the HIMARS rocket systems) and US industrial capacity (from 14,000 155mm shells a month in February 2022 to 40,000 now and a projection of 100,000 a month by the end of 2025). Nevertheless, Keir Giles, writing in The National Interest, argues the Ukrainian Kursk offensive has demonstrated Moscow’s unwillingness to escalate the conflict vertically (or horizontally towards NATO) following the crossing of multiple red lines. However, rather than emboldening NATO, this leads Giles to conclude the US and Germany have decided it is not in their broader strategic interest for Russia to be defeated and Ukraine will need to continue to pursue bold moves to delay a “surrender to Putin”. This view
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