CHACRDIGEST
JULY 1st, 2024
#33
The views expressed in this Digest are not those of the British Army or UK Government. This document cannot be reproduced or used in part or whole without the permission of the CHACR. chacr.org.uk
THE NEW GOVERNMENT’S FOREIGN POLICY PRIORITIES Since Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called an early UK general election in May, the debate has largely focused on domestic and economic issues. However, a series of high-profile international meetings in July – the NATO summit in Washington starts on 9 July, five days after the country goes to the polls – means defence and foreign policy issues are likely to dominate the first few weeks of the new government. James Landale, the BBC’s diplomatic correspondent, sets out the various international challenges facing a new government, including the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Joe Devanny, a lecturer at King’s College London, argues that the incoming government will need to reform Whitehall’s national security decision-making processes drawing on more outside voices from non-governmental organisations, think tanks, universities and the private sector. Finally, in an article for Prospect, Malcolm Chalmers, deputy director-general of the Royal United Services Institute, urges the incoming government to focus its attention on Europe. In the face of Russian aggression in Ukraine, he argues that “the need for a strong UK commitment to the continent’s defence is greater than it has been in four decades”.
CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS IN ISRAEL Relations between Israel’s national security community and the current Netanyahu-led government have been under strain since early 2023; large numbers of Israel Defence Forces (IDF) reservists refused to report for duty last year in response to the government’s plans to overhaul Israel’s judiciary. Writing for the Institute for National Security Studies in September 2023, one month before Hamas’ assault, Asa Kasher, Meir Elran and Idit Shafran Gittleman warned of the growing distrust between Israel’s government and the IDF’s military leadership. In a recent analysis for the Middle East Institute, Guy Ziv, an associate professor at the American University, argues that the fissures between the politicians and the national security community have widened even further since 7 October 2023. Israeli military leaders and intelligence chiefs claim that the government’s lack of a ‘day after’ plan for Gaza threatens to undermine the tactical successes achieved by the IDF against Hamas. Benny Gantz, a former IDF chief of staff, recently resigned from the Israeli war cabinet citing similar concerns. As tensions mount along Israel’s northern border, growing rifts between Israel’s government and national security community threaten to undermine the policymaking process.
PUTIN’S RED LINES In May Politico reported that the Biden Administration had given Kyiv permission to use long-range munitions supplied by the US to strike targets inside Russia; the decision was taken after Russian forces launched an offensive near Kharkiv. In a speech to the foreign press following the US decision, Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened to provide long-range weapons to states hostile to the West as part of an “asymmetric” response to Ukrainian strikes inside Russia. However, in a blog post for Comment is Freed, Lawrence Freedman argues that Putin’s red lines are losing credibility and suggests that Western risk appetite in Ukraine is growing as a result. For instance, French President Emmanuel Macron has become increasingly vocal in calling for Western troops to be deployed to Ukraine to train Ukrainian forces. To avoid facing a credibility deficit, Freedman urges Western policymakers to focus on bolstering defence capabilities rather than relying on ambiguous threats.
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