CHACRDIGEST
MAY 30th, 2024
#32
The views expressed in this Digest are not those of the British Army or UK Government. This document cannot be reproduced or used in part or whole without the permission of the CHACR. chacr.org.uk
“...an increased preoccupation with cyber threats to the State of Israel and defense drew resources from other threats.” ISRAEL’S INTELLIGENCE FAILURES In April Major General Aharon Haliva, the Israel Defence Forces’ (IDF) military intelligence chief, announced his resignation, accepting full responsibility for his organisation’s failure to provide advance warning of Hamas’ assault on 7 October 2023. Shay Shabtai, a senior researcher at the Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies, attributes the Israeli intelligence failure to “seven sins”: politicisation, certainty, preoccupation with cyber, targeting, professionalism, understanding, and risk management. Shabtai criticises IDF intelligence for narrowly focusing on operational imperatives such as target development; he argues that this focus impacted on the IDF’s “ability to analyse [Hamas] as a strategic and operational entity”. Beth Sanner and Adam Siegel suggest that an alternative analytical framework may have helped Israel avoid strategic surprise on 7 October. The report outlines how “crowd-sourced strategic forecasting” can force analysts to challenge their assumptions and biases. They also suggest that the events of 7 October provide lessons for intelligence services globally, including the importance of creating an organisational culture where officials feel comfortable challenging conventional wisdom and long-held assumptions.
IN THE ABSENCE OF STRATEGY: SPLITS BETWEEN THE GENERALS AND THE POLITICIANS As the war in Gaza reaches its eighth month, splits between Prime Minister Netanyahu and his cabinet partners are increasingly evident. On 15 May Defence Minister Yoav Gallant (pictured far right) openly defied his Prime Minister, noting his failure to prepare plans for the day after the Rafah operation, despite being presented with a range of options by the IDF. Benny Gantz (pictured right) has likewise threatened to resign if his plans are not adopted by the government before June 8, accusing the government of “choosing the path of the fanatics”. This piece by Natan Sachs outlines the strategic options for Israel, highlighting the damage that no political strategy has created for Israel’s international standing. This analysis by The Times’ Anshel Pfeffer considers whether Mr Gantz could emerge as Israel’s man for the future; Gantz’s supporters note that many reservists are willing and ready to support him. Internal polls in Israel seem to show that he is the most favoured politician, and could lead a future government, but it may not be in Gantz’s character to bring down the government during a time of war.
1 // WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND UKRAINE // CHACR DIGEST
Pictures (L-R): Reda Raouchaia, CC BY-SA 4.0 / U.S. Secretary of Defense, CC BY 2.0