CHACRDIGEST
MAY 3rd, 2024
#31
The views expressed in this Digest are not those of the British Army or UK Government. This document cannot be reproduced or used in part or whole without the permission of the CHACR. chacr.org.uk
IRAN STRIKES ISRAEL Fears of a wider regional war have grown after Israel and Iran’s 30-year “shadow war” entered a new stage. After Israeli airstrikes killed a leading Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander in Damascus, Iran launched more than 300 Shahed drones, mediumrange ballistic missiles and land-attack cruise missiles in retaliation. Tom Karako, the director of the Missile Defence Project at the Centre for International and Strategic Studies, explains how Israel and its partners – including the US, UK, France and Jordan – achieved a 99 per cent interception rate. Despite this success, Karako and Peter Mitchell question whether other militaries are able to replicate Israel’s layered air defence network. They both argue that geography, access to advanced technology and support from the US provides Israel with significant advantages over other states.
ISRAEL STRIKES BACK Almost a week after Iran’s attack on Israel, the Israel Defence Forces conducted a limited, stand-off strike near the Iranian city of Isfahan. Experts from the Atlantic Council broadly agreed that further escalation was unlikely as Iranian officials sought to downplay the incident. By striking the well-defended Iranian air base – satellite imagery shows the base was protected by the Soviet-built S-300 air defence system – Charles Lister, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, argued that Israel aimed to signal its military superiority over Iran.
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND THE WAR IN GAZA The conflict in Gaza has focused attention on the use of AI-based tools by the Israel Defence Forces (IDF). The IDF’s motivation for developing powerful AI software to support targeting is based on its experience of previous rounds of fighting in Gaza when the air force quickly exhausted its list of pre-identified targets. Tal Mimran, Magda Pacholska, Gal Dahan and Lena Trabucco describe the various AI-powered decision support systems used by the IDF to identify and classify targets. They argue that the controversy surrounding the IDF’s use of AI misrepresents “what AI-powered tools realistically can and cannot do”. That said, the authors urge military commanders to avoid “automation bias” by not over-relying on AI tools. Rob Solly and Daniel Tarshish also warn of the limitations of AI systems, particularly when faced with “edge cases” (unexpected incidents or data). The discussion around AI is part of a wider debate within Israel, where the IDF has been heavily criticised for being over-reliant on technology.
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