CHACRDIGEST
MARCH 27th, 2024
#30
The views expressed in this Digest are not those of the British Army or UK Government. This document cannot be reproduced or used in part or whole without the permission of the CHACR. chacr.org.uk
ISRAEL AFTER BIBI? In early March, Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer caused a stir when he called for Israel to have new elections, lest the continued reign of Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu further alienate the international community and turn Israel into a pariah. Netanyahu has dominated Israel’s political scene for the past 20-30 years. Once the war is over, his time in office will almost certainly come to an end. Having presented himself as ‘Mr Security’, the atrocities of 7th October have ruined his reputation. Writing for Chatham House, Nomi Bar-Yaacov, a veteran of the Middle East Peace Process, argues that the UK and its partners across Europe and beyond should start to put plans in place for how to revive prospects for peace once Netanyahu is gone.
IS WAR WITH HEZBOLLAH INEVITABLE? There are growing concerns that a conflict on Israel’s northern border is almost certain to break out. Since the Hamas attack of 7th October 2023, Hezbollah and Israel have exchanged fire on 4,400 separate occasions, creating an ongoing low intensity conflict. Arable and economically valuable land either side of the border largely lies abandoned as residents have fled, creating pressures to bring some sort of finality to the tension. This superbly thorough briefing from CSIS utilises graphics and maps to outline the major flashpoints along the border and the likely military escalation patterns that could occur in the event of war. It also dissects the military objectives of each side and how they will seek to achieve those objectives. Lastly, the brief makes a stark warning that only a concerted US effort to de-escalate increasingly violent exchanges will be enough to prevent war.
THE WAR THROUGH ISRAELI EYES Much of the international media coverage of the Israel-Hamas war has understandably focused on what is happening in Gaza, including the widespread destruction and high civilian death toll. The Israeli Institute for National Security Studies is keeping an often-updated tracker of what the war looks like from the perspective of Israeli society. Organised as an interactive online resource, readers can click through surveys of how Israelis see their government (trust is very low and declining) and armed forces (trust has remained consistently high); various indicators highlighting the strain the war is putting on the Israeli economy; and data on evacuations of civilian populations from areas near the borders with Gaza and Lebanon.
THE REGIONAL IMPACT OF THE WAR In the immediate aftermath of Hamas’ 7th October attack on Israel, the risk of a wider regional conflagration seemed acute. Half a year later, a full escalation into regional war has not materialised. That said, regional instability – and extremely high levels of violence – have nevertheless spread dramatically. The geopolitical landscape of the region is in flux, old and new battle-lines are shifting, often on a week-to-week basis. Julien Barnes-Dacey, Cinzia Bianco and Hugh Lovatt from the European Council on Foreign Relations have produced a highly useful report mapping the complex conflict dynamics across the Middle East. Their report also includes some interactive features allowing readers to click through the various hotspots in the region.
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