CHACRDIGEST
FEBRUARY 29th, 2024
#29
The views expressed in this Digest are not those of the British Army or UK Government. This document cannot be reproduced or used in part or whole without the permission of the CHACR. chacr.org.uk
HEZBOLLAH’S MILITARY CAPACITY Worries about security on Israel’s northern border have escalated in recent weeks. Although neither Hezbollah nor the Israelis appear to want to let things slide out of control, there are signs that both are prepared to use increasingly sophisticated tactics to disrupt each other and gain an advantage. This piece from the Israeli think tank INSS is a short insightful analysis of Hezbollah’s use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for offensive and reconnaissance missions. Mostly of Iranian or Chinese origin, Hezbollah has an arsenal of UAVs ranging from long-range attack platforms able to carry 150kg of munitions to shorter range suicide drones. Additionally for those interested in a deeper understanding of Hezbollah’s missile and rocket capabilities, this article from CSIS in 2021 still holds up well, albeit with the caveat that Hezbollah improves its arsenal with every passing year.
ISRAEL’S USE OF AI IN TARGETING Since 8th October, Israel has conducted an unprecedented number of airstrikes in the Gaza Strip, resulting in the well-publicised high civilian death toll that has dominated the headlines for months. The high frequency of strikes has also drawn attention to how Israel selects targets. In 2019, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) established a targeting directorate meant to ensure that the Air Force would not run out of targets within days of the outbreak of a future conflict. Two years later, Israel announced that it had used an artificial intelligence system to support the identification and selection of targets in 2021’s brief Gaza war. In an interesting piece for the Royal United Services Institute, Noah Sylvia outlines what is known about the so-called Habsora AI system, but also argues that it is unlikely that the IDF is really relying on an autonomous targeting system at this stage of the conflict.
TWO YEARS IN: A BATTLEFIELD UPDATE As the weather begins to turn to spring and the frontlines thaw, it’s important to understand what is at stake for Ukraine as the third year of conflict begins. Although Western allies have bucked recent trends to demonstrate a renewed commitment to Ukraine’s exhausted military, there is little doubt that the upcoming warmer months are perhaps the most crucial of the entire war for Ukraine. The current state of play is important to understand, and for those who don’t follow the machinations of day-to-day conflict this conversation held at the Center for Strategic and International Studies is an excellent overview of where the two sides currently stand on the battlefield. It is worth reading the full transcript and there is also a 50 minute video for those wanting to listen in.
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