CHACRDIGEST
OCTOBER 6th, 2023
#24
The views expressed in this Digest are not those of the British Army or UK Government. This document cannot be reproduced or used in part or whole without the permission of the CHACR. www.chacr.org.uk
WINTER IS COMING Those following the Ukraine war closely will have noted how the weather has a marked effect on how both the Ukrainians and Russians fight. As the conflict heads toward its third winter, in this detailed piece, CNN assesses the Ukrainian army’s agility and adaptability to fight during the long cold winter months. The key? Fighting smaller – the Ukrainian army utilises groups of 10-15 operating in what are known as assault squads to cover ground more quickly, eschewing larger mechanised forces that move slowly through cold, wet muddy terrain and make an easy target for the Russians. This use of smaller forces combined with long range artillery and rocket barrages forms what Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the Chief of the Defence Staff, has termed “starve, stretch and strike”. However, whether these tactics combined with new and improved range attack weapons can break through the Russian lines before political will begins to erode is unclear. For both Russia and Ukraine, another long hard winter is coming.
IS WESTERN SOLIDARITY ON UKRAINE BEGINNING TO CRACK? As Ukraine’s forces struggle to take back territory from a deeply entrenched Russian army, the first signs of fatigue among Ukraine’s allies has begun to show. Previously stalwart ally Slovakia looks set to elect anti-Ukraine populist Robert Fico as Prime Minister, meanwhile Ukraine’s rift with Poland appears to be growing, with several Law and Justice Party officials openly criticising Volodymyr Zelensky for being ungrateful. Unsurprisingly a number of articles have now appeared questioning support for Ukraine, with this piece for The Atlantic arguing that the days of Eastern European solidarity for Kyiv are numbered. While in The Guardian Gaby Hinsliff argues that domestic pressures in Western Europe and the US (particularly the cost of living, and the rise of far right pro-Putin politicians), may prove too great to sustain further support for the Ukrainians.
THE GROWING POWER OF RUSSIA’S ANSWER TO FACEBOOK Russia’s alternative to Facebook (and other Western social media apps) is called VKontakte – or VK for short. In a new paper for the German Council on Foreign Relations, Philipp Dietrich outlines how VK is increasingly becoming the dominant actor in Russia’s cyberspace. Supported by the government, it is blending social media, propaganda dissemination, state surveillance and service delivery. He argues that Western policymakers must try to understand VK and its growing reach, not least in order to counter the app’s potential to reach Western audiences too.
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