CHACRDIGEST
JUNE 29th, 2023
#20
The views expressed in this Digest are not those of the British Army or UK Government. This document cannot be reproduced or used in part or whole without the permission of the CHACR. www.chacr.org.uk
MAKING SENSE OF A CRAZY WEEKEND On Saturday 24th June, the Wagner mercenary group led by Yevgeny Prigozhin took over the Russian town of Rostov Don and made a rapid push toward Moscow in apparent defiance of President Putin. The pace of events seemed so rapid and out of control that understanding the impact of the Wagner “putsch” is difficult to fully comprehend. No sooner had it started than it stopped, Prigozhin is now in Belarus, while Wagner forces have returned to barracks. There has been much speculation (perhaps too much) as to what this means for Russia’s President, the internal power structures of the country, and the wider impacts on the Ukraine conflict. In this piece, Michael Weiss interviews Estonian analyst “Karl” about the implications of the mutiny, particularly for President Putin and Russia’s armed forces. If you read one piece about weekend of 24th June, it should be this one.
THE DESTRUCTION OF THE KAKHOVKA DAM On 6th June, a significant portion of Ukraine’s Kakhovka Dam collapsed, causing massive flooding downstream and raising concerns about potential implications for safety at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which draws its cooling water from the Kakhovka reservoir. The precise cause of the collapse – and the potential culprit – remain undefined. However, as Joanna Hosa at the European Council on Foreign Relations writes, the dam collapse could provide momentum for a more significant discussion about ecocide as an international crime. If and when the war in Ukraine comes to an end, the country will not just face an enormous reconstruction challenge, but will also be confronted with vast environmental destruction – which will also raise questions about accountability.
HOW DANGEROUS IS THE ZAPORIZHZHIA NUCLEAR PLANT? The problem of nuclear safety in Ukraine is not new. The country experienced the world’s worst ever nuclear accident in 1986 following the explosion of reactor 4 at the Chernobyl power plant. It is therefore understandable that there are serious concerns about the safety of other plants across the country, particularly Zaporizhzhia which is close to the front line. The plant has experienced several attacks over the past two years, and faced disruption to its power and cooling infrastructure. This article by Chatham House is a must-read, it explains clearly why Zaporizhzhia’s reactors are far safer than Chernobyl’s, but also explains that there are still risks – particularly to any spent fuel sitting in cooling ponds. If such cooling facilities are disrupted there is a high risk of overheating and spreading of radiation. While we are not looking at a repeat of 1986, it could be highly damaging to the surrounding environment.
RUSSIA’S UNDERSEA CAPABILITIES As a result of the war in Ukraine there has been a tendency to focus heavily on Russia’s land component. This is understandable but has led to a lack of discussion about Russian wider military power, particularly in the maritime space. In this excellent long-read, Mark Galeotti discusses Russia’s maritime capacity, which will be especially important in the future if Russia wishes to project any power beyond its borders. Galeotti discusses Russian capabilities which are well short of the US and China, but still substantial, and importantly the strategic doctrines which govern Russian submarine warfare. Of particular concern is Russia’s threat to undersea communications systems, in which there have been substantial upgrades to its capabilities over the past decade.
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