CHACRDIGEST
MARCH 30th, 2023
The views expressed in this Digest are not those of the British Army or UK Government. This document cannot be reproduced or used in part or whole without the permission of the CHACR. www.chacr.org.uk
Picture: kremlin.ru, CC BY 4.0
#17
RUSSIA AND CHINA – HOW DEEP DO RELATIONS GO? On 20 March, China’s President Xi Jinping arrived in Moscow for talks with Vladimir Putin. As with their meeting in Beijing in February last year, during which the two presidents declared their ‘no limits friendship’, the atmospherics were warm and friendly. The West worries that China could eventually provide more support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and perhaps quietly hopes that Beijing could do something to convince Moscow to find a way out of the war. Bobo Lo provides a useful analysis of the state of the Sino-Russian Partnership for the French Institute for International Relations. He argues that for both sides, the relationship is too important to fail, but that it is also clear that the balance of power favours China. Lo urges Western governments not to fall into the trap of believing that policies designed to confront or compete with one can simply be applied to the other. Although China and Russia are likely to work together for the foreseeable future, they ultimately pose different challenges for the US, UK, Europe and their allies.
THE UKRAINE WAR IN NUMBERS More than one year after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Atlantic Council has collated eight figures to highlight the profound impact of the war over the past 12 months – on Ukraine and Russia, but also on the rest of the world. The team at the Washingtonbased think tank finds that some 52 per cent of Russia’s tank arsenal has been destroyed in Ukraine, and notes that Russia is forecast to reach a 60.2 per cent budget deficit by January next year. More than eight million Ukrainians have been driven from their homes and country, with three million finding refuge in Poland, Germany and the Czech Republic alone. The US and the EU have mobilised enormous resources to support Ukraine (the EU alone has sent some €50 billion worth of assistance), but at least 35 countries appear to have adopted a non-aligned position towards Russia and the war.
Days after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (right) declared that the war marked a Zeitenwende – a turning point – for European and global security, and for German foreign and defence policy, in particular. One year on, various German observers have reflected on what has – and what has not – changed since Scholz’s speech in Parliament. The consensus seems to be that it is too early to declare the Zeitenwende a failure. Susan Stewart explains the gap between rhetoric and action and argues that while metrics like defence expenditure have often received the most attention, Zeitenwende should instead be understood as a fundamental shift of political and strategic culture in Germany – which understandably takes time. Aylin Matle, meanwhile, takes a closer look at the Bundeswehr and outlines the work now ahead for recently appointed Defence Minister Boris Pistorius. Finally, Jannik Hartman and several others write in Internationale Politik Quarterly about the international dimensions of the Zeitenwende, reviewing how the US and countries across Europe have reacted to the war.
1 // WAR IN UKRAINE // CHACR DIGEST
Picture: President.gov.ua, CC BY 4.0
ZEITENWENDE ONE YEAR ON