CFI.co Autumn 2025

AUSTIN BUTLER WEARS

GranTurismo Trofeo fuel consumption in l/100 km: combined 10.1 – 10.0; CO2 emissions in g/km: combined 229 – 226; CO2 class: G

WATCHMAKING ONCE AGAIN FINDS BRITISH SHORES

The Limited Edition Bremont Longitude is a groundbreaking timepiece that not only looks back at our country’s legacy but also forward to an exciting future of British watchmaking. The watch’s case back incorporates brass from the original “Flamsteed Line,” in Greenwich, the very spot where the first Astronomer Royal made his celestial observations in pursuit of an aid to navigation.

It has long been the goal of Bremont to bring watch manufacturing back to Britain. The Longitude represents a milestone in that journey, a homecoming of sorts, and proof that, to get where you’re going, you need to know where you came from.

First Thoughts

The World Trade Organization (WTO) suggests that artificial intelligence (AI) could boost global trade by a significant 37 percent by 2040. The projection is genuinely exciting and points to a more interconnected, efficient global economy. Yet the WTO’s accompanying warning—that these advances could exacerbate global inequality—deserves immediate, thoughtful attention. The potential for a new era of prosperity is undeniable, but it carries a serious risk of deepening the divide between the world’s haves and have-nots.

AI’s promise lies in its ability to automate complex tasks, optimise supply chains with unprecedented precision, and sharply reduce the costs of international transactions. Such gains can unlock new markets and opportunities, particularly in services. However, benefits are unlikely to be distributed evenly. Wealthier nations, with robust digital infrastructure, access to vast datasets and established technology industries, are best placed to invest in and deploy advanced systems. Their corporations will gain a substantial competitive edge in efficiency, innovation and market reach.

By contrast, developing countries—and smaller businesses in emerging economies—may struggle to keep pace. Many lack the financial capital, technical expertise and foundational digital infrastructure required to adopt and integrate sophisticated technologies. As a result, the very tools that promise a more connected world could, ironically, widen the economic gap. There is a genuine risk that AI centralises economic power rather than democratises it, leaving many nations and communities on the margins of the new global trade landscape. Higher trade volumes are not inherently positive if the gains accrue to a narrow cohort while others fall further behind.

To ensure the benefits of AI-driven trade are more broadly shared—and to mitigate the risk of widening inequality—policy must prioritise equitable access and skills development at global scale. That requires

coordinated action by governments, international organisations and the private sector.

Promote open-source AI and data sharing. High costs and proprietary software remain binding constraints for developing nations. Governments and multilateral bodies should advocate for—and fund— the development of open-source models and platforms to widen access and reduce dependence on a few dominant firms. Shared data repositories and rulesbased, international data-sharing agreements can help level the field, ensuring that valuable data—the fuel of AI—is not hoarded by a handful of entities.

Invest in digital infrastructure. Many developing nations lack the basic building blocks—reliable internet, modern data centres and secure power grids—needed to leverage AI. International development finance and public–private partnerships should be strategically directed to these foundations. Without them, AI adoption remains theoretical for large parts of the world. Such investment is about more than technology; it creates the essential pathways for economic participation.

Support AI education and training. An AI-enabled economy will demand new skills. Global programmes to build AI literacy and technical training in developing markets are critical. Priorities include investment in vocational pathways, partnerships between universities in developed and developing countries, and accessible online learning. The focus should be on upskilling and reskilling workers to move from automatable roles into higher-value tasks that involve creating, managing and leveraging AI—empowering individuals and nations to participate actively rather than remain passive bystanders.

By taking these steps, stakeholders can work towards a future in which AI supports inclusive growth and shared prosperity, rather than entrenching existing inequalities. The WTO’s warning is not a cause for despair but a clear call to action—one that demands thoughtful, collaborative and forward-looking policy.

Correspondence

“ “

I am writing in response to the recent actions taken by the administration regarding the H-1B visa programme and the simultaneous announcement of the "Trump Gold Card" visa. This latest development represents a concerning and contradictory shift in U.S. immigration policy.

The core issue is one of fairness and national priority. On one hand, the administration proposes to drastically hike the H-1B fee to $100,000 for new applicants, effectively placing a punitive tax on companies seeking to hire highly skilled workers. This move will disproportionately hurt smaller businesses, start-ups, and non-profits, while forcing the entire programme away from being an essential tool for filling genuine skill gaps and into an unaffordable burden.

On the other hand, we see the creation of the Gold Card program, which grants an expedited path to residency for individuals willing to make a $1 million financial contribution.

This dual approach sends a clear and troubling message: the door is being slammed shut on skilled professionals who seek to come to the U.S. to work and create value through their expertise, while simultaneously being opened wide to those who can simply buy their way in.

The U.S. immigration system should be based on merit, skill, and the needs of the economy, not on auctioning off residency to the highest bidder. If the goal is to protect American workers and raise wages, the focus should be on reforming the H-1B to prioritise salary levels and genuine shortages, not replacing a flawed system with one that exchanges skill for cash.

This policy direction prioritises the collection of revenue over attracting the globally competitive talent and innovation necessary for our long-term economic prosperity.

GLEN RIVERS (Portland, Oregon, US)

The recent State Visit by President Trump was, quite simply, a masterclass in international diplomacy and tradition, showcasing the unrivalled pomp and ceremony for which Great Britain is justly famous. It was a truly breathtaking spectacle that served as a powerful reminder of the enduring, majestic quality of the British Monarchy.

No other nation can execute such high-stakes pageantry with the seamless precision and historic depth demonstrated last week. The sight of the President and First Lady being escorted by the Household Cavalry in gilded carriages to Windsor Castle—a fortress of a thousand years of history—was utterly captivating. The sheer scale of the ceremonial welcome, involving over 1,300 troops and 120 horses, set a new benchmark for diplomatic grandeur.

The attention to detail, from the 41-gun Royal Salute to the special exhibition of items from the Royal Collection connecting U.S. and British history, transcended mere formality; it was a profound gesture of respect for the Anglo-American alliance. The evening State Banquet, with its white-tie formality and speeches in St George’s Hall, served not merely as a dinner but as a potent theatrical display of soft power.

In a world increasingly dominated by digital communication and casual politics, Britain's commitment to such historic rituals provides a vital grounding point. This glorious spectacle reminds global leaders—and the public— of the stability, continuity, and solemn gravity underlying the relationship between our two great nations. It is a diplomatic tool that no amount of economic or military might can replicate. The pomp endures, and long may it continue to do so.

GRAHAM MILES (Adelaide, Australia)

I am writing to you regarding the inclusion of yet another piece—this time focused on "Meghan's Brand Narrative"—in your recent summer issue.

“With the greatest respect to your publication's thoughtful coverage of wider business and cultural topics, I must confess that I have reached a point of profound media fatigue with the constant analysis, dissection, and promotion of every step taken by the Duchess of Sussex, whether it be a new product line or a subtle shift in public persona.

Frankly, I am simply not interested.

I suspect I am not alone among your readership in feeling that this continuous coverage has become a tiresome echo chamber. While I appreciate that the Sussexes generate clicks and sell copies, there is a substantial audience in the UK that is exhausted by the incessant focus and would prefer our national conversations—and indeed, your magazine’s editorial space—to be devoted to more substantive, pressing matters.

The concept of her "brand narrative" feels increasingly tenuous and irrelevant to the concerns of everyday British readers. I sincerely hope that in future issues, your publication will cease to give this matter any further air and redirect your considerable journalistic talents toward subjects that truly warrant our attention.

CLAIR GREGORY (Portsmouth, UK)

I read your recent First Thoughts editorial on the future of remote working with great interest and appreciation for its thoughtful and well-reasoned perspective. The piece rightly highlighted the complexities and benefits of flexible working models, and the significant shift in employee expectations.

“However, I must respectfully disagree with the prevailing notion that employees should be the primary arbiters of where work is performed. While flexibility is a valuable benefit, ultimately, the decision to mandate a return to the office, a hybrid approach, or full remote work must remain with the employer.

A company's location strategy is intrinsically linked to its operational requirements, culture, team synergy, security needs, and ultimately, its commercial success. These are factors best understood and managed by the leadership responsible for the organisation's overall performance.

Offering remote work is a business decision, not an inherent employee right. When a business decides on its working model—be it a full return to the office or a different arrangement—it is setting the conditions of employment. The onus is then on the employee to decide whether those conditions are acceptable. They are, of course, entirely free to seek employment elsewhere if they are not.

By placing the final say with the employer, we ensure that the working model aligns with the organisation's strategic goals, while still respecting the fundamental principle of choice for the individual: stay and accept the terms or seek a new opportunity.

BERNARD JONES (Devon, UK)

IBM Thought Leadership Transparency Makes the Invisible Hand Visible Again,

And Inclusive

Paolo Sironi

Editorial Team

Sarah Worthington

George Kingsley

Tony Lennox

Brendan Filipovski

John Marinus

Ellen Langford

Helen Lynn Stone

Naomi Snelling

Columnists

Otaviano Canuto

Lord Waverley

Production Director

Jackie Chapman

Distribution Manager

William Adam

Subscriptions

Maggie Arts

Commercial Director

John Mann

Director, Operations

Marten Mark

Publisher Anthony Michael

COVER STORIES

Paolo is the global research leader in Banking and Financial Markets at IBM, Institute of Business Value. IBV is the thought leadership centre of IBM. by

Sironi

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Otaviano Canuto The Global Economy

Paolo

Berenberg

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Sironi

Paolo is the global research leader in Banking and Financial Markets at IBM, Institute of Business Value. IBV is the thought leadership centre of IBM. by Paolo

> Paolo Sironi: What Derailed Banking Modernisation

— And a Way Forward

Cloud-native modernisation of core banking remains a priority investment as institutions try to escape the limits of legacy architectures, embrace realtime processing, and open up to the API economy. Yet, while most banks expect higher cloud adoption and are re-platforming core operations, the last decade is littered with false starts. IBM Institute for Business Value (IBM IBV) research, based on a survey of 500 Chief Information Officers globally, shows initiatives have frequently gone off the rails for the same three reasons: escalated costs, delayed timelines, and underwhelming outcomes.

ESCALATED COSTS

More than half of CIOs report that modernisation has cost far more than planned. The drivers are familiar. Unforeseen security issues were cited by 56 percent; the complexity of untangling critical dependencies and legacy systems by 53 percent; and shortages of cloud skills by 52 percent. Programme budgets are further strained when economic models for technical consumption collide with traditional subscription practices. Vendors’ transaction-based pricing can misalign with business reality: a shift from batch to realtime payments lifts transaction counts while lowering average values, creating new peak periods. Margins per transaction shrink, but platform costs do not fall proportionately.

BREAKING THE MODERNISATION BOTTLENECK

Fintech’s pace of innovation pressures banks to accelerate core modernisation for operational efficiency, but delays steadily erode competitiveness. In multi-year programmes, budgets overrun as platform ownership and upgrade costs rise—reported by 51 percent of CIOs. Thirty-eight percent point to system complexity that forces continual task and timeline re-planning, while 37 percent highlight rigid operating models that resist new workflows. Extended timelines create a dangerous illusion of safety: leaders believe they have time, but delivery slippage outpaces decision-making and value capture.

BURNING THROUGH BILLIONS — FOR MIXED RESULTS

Despite heavy investment, more than half of CIOs say outcomes have been underwhelming, and some report degraded operational capability. There is, however, a clear bright spot: nearly half of banks that pursued aggressive “front-toback” modernisation, coupled with calibrated “back-to-front” transformation, report tangible

Figure 1: Key causes of delay in multiyear projects of core banking modernisation

gains. Forty-nine percent cite improved client experience via real-time capability; 46 percent report more frequent updates through agile deployment; and 46 percent say cloud-native analytics have accelerated data access.

Set against those gains are persistent headwinds. Seventy-three percent say system update costs have risen due to vendor lock-in and limited process portability. Sixty-nine percent report greater riskmanagement complexity in cloud environments.

Sixty-three percent have seen platform resilience dented by unstable data centres. Success is achievable—but the gradient is steep.

CRITICAL LESSONS TO ACCELERATE SUCCESS

The glass is, nonetheless, half full. The IBM IBV findings surface three practical shifts that can reset programmes and shorten the path to value.

First, design hybrid cloud intentionally. Choose platforms proven for high-frequency transaction

"Years of uncoordinated application evolution leave banks with opaque interdependencies. AI-assisted discovery can identify and optimise these linkages, decoupling services from the core."

loads, and build governance in from the start so resilience, scalability, and cost visibility are engineered—rather than discovered late as “surprises”.

Second, lean on industry standards to de-risk migration. A thorough mapping of legacy estates against standard process and data models clarifies hidden complexity, avoids bespoke traps, and reduces cut-over risk.

Third, use AI for dependency management. Years of uncoordinated application evolution leave banks with opaque interdependencies. AI-assisted discovery can identify and optimise these linkages, decoupling services from the core. This is no longer speculative: in 2025, 51 percent of CIOs already use AI to accelerate IT development, and 92 percent expect to do so by 2028.

BUILD AN ASYMMETRIC ADVANTAGE WITH AI

AI can be the difference between yet another rewrite and a genuine step-change. Core platforms often conceal decades of business logic in dense, monolithic code with poor traceability. As experts retire, tacit knowledge disappears and technical debt compounds. Agentic AI— embedding orchestration logic above the core— can convert implicit know-how into explicit artefacts, speeding code translation and creation while preserving system intent. Done well, this becomes an asymmetrical advantage: faster modernisation with lower regression risk.

The risks are real. Without architectural clarity and senior engineering oversight, generative tools can amplify complexity, mask security flaws, and weaken resilience. Automated code without robust review is how banks drift toward an “event horizon” where complexity devours

value. Strategic adoption—pairing AI speed with reference architectures, testing discipline, and clear quality gates—is essential. Think of it as training for a diving competition: AI can raise the platform, but you still need to know how to swim.

THE NEW REMIT: FROM RISK MANAGER TO AI RISK MANAGER

In the AI era, every banker—and especially every CIO—must evolve from traditional risk manager to AI risk manager. That means governing model bias, data provenance, drift, and explainability alongside cybersecurity and operational resilience. It means treating responsible AI as an enterprise control system, not a compliance afterthought.

Banks that internalise these lessons have a credible route out of the modernisation maze: architect hybrid cloud deliberately; standardise to simplify; apply AI where it clarifies, not where it obscures; and govern the whole with the same rigour used for capital and liquidity. Do that, and cloud-native core modernisation can finally deliver its promise: real-time capability, faster change, lower run-costs, and a platform that compounds value rather than cost. i

Readthefullreport:ibm.biz/core-banking

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Paolo Sironi is the global research leader in banking at IBM, the Institute for Business Value, and he is author of business literature. His latest Banks and Fintech on Platform Economies has been Amazon bestseller in banking books worldwide.

De-risking Urban Water Infrastructure: Freetown’s Blue Peace Financing Model

In the hills and crowded valleys of Freetown, Sierra Leone’s bustling capital city, access to safe and reliable water remains one of the city’s most persistent challenges.

Following the civil war, rapid urbanisation, an overstretched public utility system and climate-related pressures have left thousands of Freetonians (mostly women and youth) vulnerable to the daily struggles of finding clean water.

Access to clean water in Freetown remains a major challenge. According to a 2015 report by the African Development Bank, only 11 percent of Sierra Leoneans have water on their premises, while 58 percent rely on unsafe sources. The Blue Peace Financing Initiative seeks to change this by investing in solarpowered water kiosks and public toilets across the city. This initiative not only enhances water access but also reduces carbon emissions by reducing reliance on fossil-fuel-based power or grid electricity. Early evaluation of kiosk usage in Freetown shows measurable benefits: a 0.6 percent improvement in microbial water quality and an 8.2 percent uplift in household water security metrics.

Amid these challenges, a quiet revolution is underway. The Freetown Blue Peace Financing Initiative, a pioneering collaboration between the United Nations Capital Development Fund (UNCDF) and the Freetown City Council (FCC) funded by the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) and further supported by United Nations Peacebuilding Fund, is changing how the city approaches water access and infrastructure financing.

By combining concessional financing tied to sustainability outcomes with communitydriven service models, the initiative integrates solar-powered water kiosks to reduce carbon emissions while expanding access to water to local communities.

These design choices were built into the project’s financing framework, making

environmental sustainability a core condition of capital deployment. Revenue projections from affordable water sales demonstrate the initiative's potential to generate returns and support FCC’s long-term investment case, showcasing how UNCDF’s early-stage investments can de-risk public infrastructure and catalyse financially viable, socially inclusive solutions.

INVESTING IN CLIMATE-SMART INFRASTRUCTURES

UNCDF provided a $1.1 million reimbursable grant to the Freetown City Council, marking the first time the Council was able to access this form of catalytic financing to build its credit profile and demonstrate financial readiness for future investments. Building on this momentum, UNCDF, through the Peacebuilding

Secretariat, successfully mobilised an additional $1.49 million grant from the United Nations Peacebuilding Fund, crowding in new capital to deepen the initiative’s impact.

The Blue Peace Financing Initiative, which commenced in 2020, seeks to change this by investing in solar-powered water kiosks and public toilets across the city. This initiative not only enhances water access but also reduces carbon emissions by reducing reliance on fossil-fuel-based power or grid electricity. Early evaluation of kiosk usage in Freetown already shows measurable benefits: a 0.6 percent improvement in microbial water quality and an 8.2 percent uplift in household water security metrics.

"Mexico is modernising to sustain manufacturing leadership and capture near-shoring under USMCA. The Maya Train integrates

WOMEN-LED OPERATIONS

The project places communities at the centre of decision-making. Local councillors and 746 residents from 24 neighbourhoods actively participated in selecting kiosk locations, ensuring that the infrastructure serves the greatest number of people. Public agreements were signed in community meetings, fostering trust and collaboration. As Aminata Bangura, a community leader from Crab Town, Lumley, notes, "We feel heard and valued, which motivates us to support the initiative fully."

For the first time in Freetown’s history, women are not just water collectors but operators of the water kiosks, a shift that directly challenges the traditionally male-dominated water value chain. In the past, women and girls, despite being the primary users of water, were relegated to the role of carriers, facing significant vulnerabilities, including sexual exploitation and abuse as they had to trade their bodies for access to scarce water resources.

The Blue Peace Financing Initiative is turning this dynamic on its head by placing women at the forefront of water access and management. With 20 water kiosks already handed over to women-led operations, these kiosks empower women with both economic independence and decision-making power. As Hawa Kamara, a kiosk operator in Calaba Town, states, "We are decision-makers now, not at the mercy of an unreliable system."

“A GAME CHANGER”

Currently, about 65,000 to 70,000 residents of the targeted communities are accessing clean and affordable water thanks to these kiosks. The integration of women into the operational side of these kiosks not only ensures a more sustainable water distribution system but also provides a platform for women to thrive in leadership roles as highlighted by Alhassan Kalokoh, FCC Councillor "Women now have a voice in decisions about water access. It’s a game-changer for equity in our city."

"Freetown is setting an example for other cities in the region. This project shows that local governments, with the right financial tools and community support, can solve even the most entrenched challenges."

A SCALABLE FINANCING MODEL FOR OTHER AFRICAN CITIES

The innovative financing model behind the Blue Peace initiative ensures long-term sustainability. Through affordable water sales, kiosks generate income which will sit in an escrow account creating a self-sustaining cycle of investment and maintenance. This aligns with UNCDF’s broader vision of blended finance solutions, enabling FCC to scale up to address financing needs for other infrastructure across the city. The model could also be replicated in other cities across Sierra Leone and the continent.

As UNCDF’s Alfred Akibo-Betts notes, "Freetown is setting an example for other cities in the region. This project shows that local governments, with

the right financial tools and community support, can solve even the most entrenched challenges."

The Blue Peace initiative is more than just a water project. It is a scalable model for inclusive, bottom-up sustainable urban development and an innovative financial model to recycle capital and extend its impact on communities in frontier markets.

Meanwhile, in Freetown, every drop of water is a symbol of empowerment, innovation, and hope—a bold step toward a brighter, more resilient future. i

ABOUT UNCDF

United Nations Capital Development Fund (UNCDF) mobilises and catalyses an increase in capital flows for impactful investments in high-risk markets, especially in Least Developed Countries, Small Island Developing States and countries in special situations. By crowding in capital through the deployment of risk-absorbing financial instruments, mechanisms and structuring advisory, UNCDF contributes to job creation and sustained economic growth in more than 70 countries.

In partnership with UN entities and development partners, UNCDF operates with speed and agility to deliver scalable, blended finance solutions to drive systemic change and pave the way for commercial finance and scale up by development finance institutions and multilateral development banks.

Learn more atuncdf.org or follow @UNCDF

Otaviano Canuto: The Global Economy on a Two-Way Track

This

Global economic growth has proved more resilient than anticipated, with artificial intelli-gence-led investment offsetting much of the drag from escalating trade conflicts. Yet overstretched asset valuations and slowing job creation suggest that balancing these two opposing forces may soon become more difficult.

UNEXPECTED RESILIENCE IN GLOBAL GROWTH

The OECD’s Economic Outlook Interim Report (September 2025) notes that global growth has surpassed expectations. Compared with June projections, the OECD raised its 2025 global growth forecast from 2.9 percent to 3.2 percent, while keeping the 2026 forecast at 2.9 percent. Growth expectations for the United States increased to 1.8 percent for 2025 (up 0.2 points), and remained at 1.5 percent for 2026. The euro area was upgraded to 1.2 percent in 2025 before moderating to 1 percent in 2026. Brazil, India and China also saw modest upward revisions, with China now forecast to grow 4.9 percent this year and 4.4 percent next.

The OECD attributes this resilience to three main factors: the front-loading of industrial ac-tivity ahead of tariff increases; robust AIrelated investment in US data infrastructure; and China’s expansionary fiscal policy, which has cushioned the property sector downturn and trade headwinds.

Global merchandise trade also rose sharply in early 2025, led by shipments to the United States. However, by mid-year, US and Canadian import volumes began to fall, and Latin American exports weakened. Meanwhile, labour markets across advanced economies are softening, with unemployment rising modestly in the US, Canada, Germany and France but falling to historic lows in the euro area. Inflationary pressures, while muted, have proved stubborn, with goods prices re-accelerating and services inflation remaining sticky.

THE US: DUAL RESILIENCE AND EMERGING STRAIN

The US economy remains the central engine of global momentum. Revised Bureau of Economic Analysis data show annualised GDP growth at 3.8 percent in the second quarter, up from 3.3 percent. Yet underlying growth across the first half of 2025 averaged a more mod-est 1.65 percent—well below historical norms.

Tariff measures have further complicated the picture. The average effective tariff rate reached 19.5 percent in August—the highest since 1933. While the OECD expected a resulting drag on output, most effects have yet to

"Global merchandise trade also rose sharply in early 2025, led by shipments to the United States. However, by mid-year, US and Canadian import volumes began to fall, and Latin American exports weakened."

materialise. Firms initially absorbed much of the cost through compressed margins. However, real wages are now under pressure as unemployment edges higher and job openings decline.

Inflation remains sticky. The August Personal Consumption Expenditures Index rose 0.3 percent month-on-month and 2.7 percent year-on-year, with Core PCE inflation reaching 2.9 percent—above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target. The Fed’s September decision to cut rates by 25 basis points reflected concern over slowing job creation, which has aver-aged just 29,000 monthly net new jobs over the past quarter.

THE TARIFF SHOCK AND SHIFTING TRADE FLOWS

The impact of tariff escalation is most visible in US-China trade. Economist Robin Brooks estimates the effective tariff rate on Chinese goods at 44 percent—up from 17 percent in December 2024—while tariffs on other countries rose to 15 percent from 4 percent. As a result, nominal US imports from China fell 48 percent year-on-year by June, with the bilat-eral trade deficit shrinking by 61 percent to a twodecade low of $9.5bn.

Total US goods imports dropped $184.5bn in the second quarter, reducing the current ac-count deficit by a record 42.9 percent to $251.3bn, or 3.3 percent of GDP. Imports have shifted toward emerging Asian markets and Mexico, reflecting re-routing and substitution effects. These changes, combined with new trade pacts with Japan, Vietnam, Indonesia and the EU, have significantly redrawn the global trading map.

FINANCIAL MARKETS AND THE AI BOOM

In contrast to trade turbulence, financial markets have remained buoyant. The Bank for In-ternational Settlements’ September report highlights improved liquidity, narrow credit spreads and strong equity valuations across advanced and emerging markets. US equities have led the rally, with large-cap technology stocks—the so-called “Magnificent Seven”— propelling indices to record highs.

Emerging market equities, after years of underperformance, have joined the rally.

Analysts attribute this to three factors: a weaker US dollar, prudent fiscal management across emerging economies, and investor diversification away from the US amid fiscal uncertainty in advanced markets.

However, the extraordinary AI investment surge is the defining feature of the US economy. Capital spending on information processing equipment and software—now roughly 4 per-cent of GDP— accounted for an astonishing 92 percent of US GDP growth in the first half of 2025. These energy-intensive data-centre investments have more than offset the drag from tariffs and policy uncertainty, but also raised electricity demand by 7 percent year-on-year.

THE TWO-WAY TRACK

The US economy—and by extension, the global economy—appears to be running on two tracks: an AI-fuelled investment boom and a simultaneous slowdown in employment and consumption. The first drives innovation, capital formation and asset appreciation; the second risks undermining household demand and social stability.

Both the OECD and BIS warn that asset valuations now look stretched. If anticipated AI-driven productivity gains fail to materialise, today’s exuberance could resemble the early2000s dot-com bubble. Meanwhile, data-centre saturation could slow capital spending just as job growth falters. Fiscal vulnerabilities in the US and other advanced economies add to the uncertainty.

The coming year will test whether AI can deliver sustained productivity growth without trig-gering asset bubbles or inequality shocks. For now, the global economy remains resilient—but precariously balanced on a two-way track. i

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Otaviano Canuto, based in Washington, D.C., is a senior fellow at the Policy Center for the New South, a non-resident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a lecturer at George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs, and a former vice-president and executive director at the World Bank, IMF and Inter-American Development Bank.

Nouriel Roubini & Brunello Rosa:

Money Will Not Be Revolutionised

hat does the future hold for money and payment systems? While it will surely feature unprecedented technologies, foreseeing the full picture requires historical context.

Traditionally, money and payment systems have run on a combination of base money (issued by a central bank) and private-sector money, typically issued by commercial banks through demand deposits, credit cards, and so forth. Since newer fintech payment systems such as

Alipay, WeChat, Venmo, or PayPal are still linked to bank deposits and credit cards, they represent evolution, not revolution.

As for Bitcoin and other decentralised crypto assets, none has become a currency because none is a unit of account, scalable means of payment, stable store of value, or numeraire (a benchmark for other similar assets). El Salvador went so far as to declare Bitcoin legal tender, but, at best, some 5 percent of transactions for goods and services are settled with it.

True, with the Trump administration creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, and with more institutional investors adding it to their portfolios, some commentators believe that Bitcoin will become a store of value over time. But this has yet to be tested.

What other possibilities do distributed-ledger technologies (DLTs) create? Leaving aside crypto assets, which will remain volatile tokens for speculative activities, three other options have emerged: central bank digital

currencies (CBDCs), stablecoins, and tokenised deposits.

Fears that CBDCs would disintermediate banks or facilitate bank runs in times of financial panic have diminished now that limits are likely to be imposed on CBDC balances. In most cases, central banks will aim only to provide a public safe asset for people’s digital wallets, rather than an alternative to private-sector payment systems; and most CBDCs will not be “programmable” or interest yielding.

That means private-sector solutions will continue to dominate payments. Fintech can offer cheap, safe, and efficient options that are not necessarily based on DLT; and now governments are offering real-time payment rails for banks and corporate firms that facilitate cheap and immediate settlement. And even in the DLT domain, the tokenisation of money-market funds or interest-bearing “flatcoins” (pegged to a basket of assets) may drive adoption of new forms of quasi or broad money that can be seamlessly converted into digital moneys that provide payment services.

But preferences differ markedly across jurisdictions. In the United States, the Trump administration’s ideological opposition to CBDCs has led it to favor stablecoins (prompting warnings from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) of a return to the shambolic free banking of the nineteenth century, only in a digital format). In Europe, by contrast, worries about stablecoin risks – such as a new doom loop between the treasury and stablecoin issuers, and poor anti-money laundering and “know your customer” practices – imply a preference for CBDCs and tokenised deposits. And in China, an aversion to potentially decentralised stablecoins has led the government to favor a CBDC, plus fintech payment solutions.

Ideally, each of these solutions would co-exist and play a different role within a well-organised system of digital currencies. A CBDC would be the public safe asset in people’s digital wallets, providing a foundation of trust for the entire system. Stablecoins would then be used for domestic peer-to-peer or international payments, and tokenised deposits would be used for interbank transactions.

So far, one of the only jurisdictions that seems to have recognised the importance of implementing this “pyramid” of digital currencies is the United Arab Emirates, which is creating the most welcoming environment for digital assets at the global level. In this context, it bears mentioning that while new digital forms of money are based on some form of DLT, most run on centralised rather than decentralised ledgers, and they tend to be permissioned by authorised and trusted validators, rather than through permissionless and trustless transactions. Or put another way, they are closer to traditional centralised ledgers than to a true DLT.

Still, many of those tokenising real-world assets do seem to be opting for DLT as the preferred “unifying platform,” with digital assets being denominated in native-digital currencies. Thus, rather than focusing on the race for dominance over domestic or cross-border payment systems, we suggest watching the geopolitics of digital currencies, given their potential to serve as global reserve assets.

Seeking a greater global role for the renminbi, in part to mitigate the risk of future US financial sanctions, China is pushing for its CBDC, the e-CNY, to be used in cross-border transactions among countries involved in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (and its sister project, the Digital Silk Road). With m-Bridge, a technology originally designed with the BIS, the e-CNY could be used to bypass dollar channels and the SWIFT system for cross-border transactions; in fact, China already has its own alternative to SWIFT: CIPS (Cross-border Interbank Payment System).

These moves suggest that the eurozone could be squeezed between a still-dominant dollar (whose role would be boosted by the widespread adoption of dollar-pegged stablecoins) and a rising e-CNY. Europe is therefore moving fast to introduce a digital euro, which could help maintain the single currency’s global reserve role and grant some “strategic autonomy” to the European Union.

Finally, the Trump administration is pushing stablecoins (through the recent GENIUS Act) to preserve the dollar’s dominant role in global payments and as a reserve currency. With dollar-based stablecoins now re-dollarising the global economy, both China and the eurozone are re-considering their earlier skepticism and contemplating issuing their own stablecoins.

The future of money and payment systems will be characterised by evolution, not some radical crypto revolution. Network effects give current systems an incumbency advantage. Over a decade and a half after Bitcoin’s launch, the main advance in crypto is the stablecoin, which is just a digital version of fiat currency; and even the adoption of stablecoins will be gradual. Money is too much a public good and too much a nationalsecurity concern to be left to private, anonymous, decentralised actors. One way or another, it will remain within the state’s purview. i

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Nouriel Roubini, Professor Emeritus of Economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business, is Chief Economist at Atlas Capital Team, CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, CoFounder of TheBoomBust.com, and author of the forthcoming MegaThreats:TenDangerousTrends ThatImperilOurFuture, and How to Survive Them (Little, Brown and Company, October 2022). He is a former senior economist for international affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration and has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank. His website is NourielRoubini.com, and he is the host of NourielToday.com.

BRUNELLO ROSA

Brunello Rosa is CEO of Rosa & Roubini and the co-author (with Casey Larsen) of Smart Money: HowDigitalCurrenciesWillShapetheNewWorld Order (Bloomsbury Publishing, 2024).

Jorge Arbache & Otaviano Canuto: The Myth of American Deindustrialisation

onventional wisdom holds that the United States has undergone a massive deindustrialisation in recent decades, with the country’s manufacturing sector supposedly withering as it lost ground to China. This narrative has fueled debates about industrial policy, economic nationalism, and the reshoring of manufacturing production. But what if it is only partly true? What if, instead of disappearing, American industry simply changed its address?

A closer look at the data suggests that what the US lost in domestic manufacturing, it may have gained in global productive presence. Rather than collapsing, American industry internationalised.

True, manufacturing as a share of US GDP has declined. In 1970, the sector accounted for about 24% of the American economy; by 2023, it represented less than 11%. Industrial employment also fell sharply – by nearly seven million jobs since the peak in the 1970s.

These figures have supported the idea that the US “abandoned” its industry. But two additional points should be noted. First, as technology has evolved, manufacturing employment per unit of output shrunk in many countries. For example, Germany’s continued success in manufacturing was nevertheless accompanied by declining employment.

Second, US real (inflation-adjusted) manufacturing value added (the difference between input costs and the value of the net output) has been rising over the past four decades, even as factory jobs declined. The sector’s composition has been characterised by a rising share of higher-value goods, like advanced technologies and aerospace products, manufactured with fewer workers and higher levels of automation.

During this period, China became a manufacturing powerhouse. In 2023, it was the world’s largest industrial producer, with estimated value added reaching $4.6 trillion – almost double America’s $2.8 trillion. But to conclude that this signals the decline of American industrial leadership overlooks a crucial fact: The data used here – such as

industrial value added – are calculated on the basis of national territory, which means that they measure only what is physically produced within a country’s borders. This is akin to the distinction between GDP and GNP but applied to manufacturing.

The problem with this method is that it misses a major feature of the twenty-first-century economy: the internationalisation of production chains. Large American companies maintain extensive production networks abroad, whether through subsidiaries, joint ventures, or contracts with local suppliers. This production is often shaped, overseen, and controlled by engineers, designers, and executives in the US, even as it physically occurs in other parts of the world.

Servicification of US Manufacturing

So, American manufacturing did not disappear, it relocated. American factories operating in Europe, Asia, Latin America, and elsewhere are supplying local and global markets and integrating global value chains.

Data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) indicate that, by 2024, the stock of US direct investment in manufacturing abroad was about $1.1 trillion, while the corresponding figure for China was estimated to be around $200 billion. These overseas industrial operations don’t appear in national accounts. By measuring only what is produced domestically, we underestimate the true scale of US-controlled manufacturing. In fact, BEA statistics suggest that if we include overseas production controlled by US companies, the “global manufacturing value” of the US could reach $3.9 trillion – much closer to China’s total. The high relevance of US manufacturing abroad is supported by different data sources and may help explain why US stock markets suffered less than US-based workers.

Moreover, not all of China’s exports are entirely “Made in China.” According to OECD data, part of the value of Chinese exports corresponds to inputs imported from third countries, which could mean that less than 65% of the value of Chinese manufactured exports is generated within China. In the case of the US, this share is around 80%, indicating that the US captures more value added in the stages under its control.

Some of the confusion about US “deindustrialisation” also arises from how we measure sectoral GDP. A significant share of the value added in industrial production – especially high-value activities – is classified as “services.” Logistics, research and development, engineering, software, patents, branding, distribution, design, and supply-chain management (among others) are fully integrated into manufacturing, but are counted under a different economic category.

So, when a company like Boeing coordinates production using global suppliers, most of the value added in the US is not recorded as manufacturing, even though it is deeply tied to it. Aggregating manufacturing capabilities with service functions directly tied to the sector implies a US industrial footprint that appears to surpass China’s.

The real question, then, is not just how much is produced and where (US President Donald Trump’s obsession). It is about who controls and captures value from industrial supply chains. From this perspective, the US remains highly industrialised, albeit through a sophisticated and globalised business model.

This reality has important implications for debates about reindustrialisation, trade, tariffs, and industrial policy. The issue is not just “bringing factories back,” but understanding who is in control, where value is generated, and how production networks can be organised in more resilient, efficient, and sustainable ways.

However politically convenient the deindustrialisation narrative may be, the reality is more complex and less gloomy than many assume. The US may have lost factories, but it did not lose industrial capacity. Its capacity simply became transnational.

At a time of geopolitical realignment, trade tensions, and the energy transition, understanding this nuance is essential. The future of manufacturing is not only about factory floors, which are increasingly populated by robots. More importantly, it is about where, how, and with whom to produce, and about who captures the resulting profits and influence.

Efforts to reshore labor-intensive parts of the supply chain through reshoring policies and tariffs have had minor impacts in US manufacturing. The sector’s renaissance would come at the expense of higher-value activities, because US businesses will need to reallocate limited labor resources. Low-income households that currently benefit from low-cost imported goods will face higher prices, with or without the establishment of domestic supply chains. Trying to recreate the manufacturing sector of old will not only fail; it will make Americans poorer. i

ABOUT JORGE ARBACHE

Jorge Arbache, Professor of Economics at the University of Brasília, is a former deputy minister and chief economist at Brazil’s Ministry of Planning, vice president for the private sector at the Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean, board member at BNDES, and senior economist at the World Bank.

HOW SANAE TAKAICHI, A DRUMMER FROM NARA, ROSE TO BECOME JAPAN’S FIRST FEMALE PRIME MINISTER BREAKING THE BAMBOO CEILING:

The election of Sanae Takaichi as the President of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in October 2025, and her subsequent appointment as Prime Minister, marks a watershed moment in Japanese political history. At 64, she shattered the decades-old "bamboo ceiling," not only becoming Japan’s first female Prime Minister but also one of the very few post-war Japanese leaders who ascended to the top without the advantage of a political dynasty—a striking contrast to the customary Tokyo political elites. Her remarkable journey from a heavy metal drummer in Nara to the nation's highest office is a testament to her tenacity, political skill, and strong connection with the LDP’s conservative grassroots base, forging a new, distinctly non-establishment path to power.

A LIFE OUTSIDE THE INNER CIRCLE

Japan’s political landscape has long been dominated by a relatively small group of powerful families and hereditary politicians, particularly within the LDP. Former Prime Ministers like Shinzō Abe, Tarō Asō, and others benefited from multigenerational political networks and inherited seats. Takaichi, however, arrived in the Diet as an outsider, making her ascent all the more notable.

Born in 1961 in Yamatokōriyama, Nara Prefecture, a region steeped in ancient history and far removed from the immediate political hub of Tokyo, Takaichi’s background was solidly middle-class and professional. Her father worked for an automotive firm, and her mother served in the Nara Prefectural Police. This grounding in the realities of a working family, rather than the rarefied air of Tokyo's political kaki (cliques), has often been cited as a source of her perceived authenticity and popular appeal.

Her early life was unconventional for a future conservative leader. A graduate of Kobe University, she pursued interests far from the traditional political track. An accomplished musician, Takaichi played the drums and piano, famously performing in a heavy metal band during her university years. This unusual resume—heavy metal drummer and a motorcycle enthusiast—stands in stark opposition to the staid, conformist image often associated with Japanese political elites.

THE PATH TO THE DIET: INDEPENDENT AND SELF-MADE

Takaichi's formal training for public life came from the Matsushita Institute of Government and Management, an academy founded by Panasonic's Konosuke Matsushita to train future leaders outside the traditional bureaucratic track. Her time there included a stint in Washington D.C., working as a legislative aide for a Democratic Congresswoman, providing her with invaluable exposure to Western politics and governance.

Even after completing her fellowship and working as a newscaster and political analyst for TV Asahi, she did not immediately align herself with the LDP machine. When she first ran for the House of Representatives in the 1993 general election, she was elected as an independent candidate for the Nara at-large district. This initial victory, achieved without the backing of a major party, underscored her ability to connect with local voters based on her own merits and platform.

She later joined the LDP in 1996, eventually aligning herself with the Seiwakai (later the Mori and then the Abe Faction), the party’s largest and most conservative faction. This pragmatic political choice provided the necessary institutional backing, but Takaichi’s foundational political identity remained rooted in her grassroots origins and her unwavering, hard-line conservative principles, which resonated with the core of the LDP’s national membership.

THE ABE CONNECTION AND A RISING STAR

Takaichi's career trajectory gained significant momentum through her close alignment with former Prime Minister Shinzō Abe, a fellow conservative and one of her longest-serving political mentors. They were both first elected in 1993, sharing similar ideological beliefs, particularly a desire for constitutional revision and a more assertive national defence posture. Abe championed her career, appointing her to various influential posts, including Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications and, more recently, Minister of State for Economic Security.

Her repeated appointments to these highprofile roles—often as the first woman to hold them (e.g., first female head of the LDP's Policy Research Council)—established her as a competent administrator and a formidable conservative voice. However, unlike many of her predecessors, Takaichi did not benefit from a powerful political dairi (surrogate) to push her

through. She leveraged her political competence and her authentic connection to the conservative grassroots, who viewed her as a figure of strength and clear ideology, a refreshing change from the often-compromised centrists who emerge from behind-the-scenes factional bargaining.

THE 2025 VICTORY: GRASSROOTS OVER GEOPOLITICS

Takaichi’s path to the LDP presidency was a classic upset, largely powered by the party's rank-and-file members outside the Diet. In the 2025 LDP leadership election, she defeated the younger, more establishment-friendly Shinjirō Koizumi in a runoff. At 64, she was not the youngest candidate, but she successfully channeled the political mood among LDP members and conservative voters disillusioned with the LDP’s handling of recent crises and scandals under her predecessors.

Her victory demonstrated that the LDP's membership base was willing to look beyond

hereditary privilege and establishment consensus, opting instead for a leader with unflinching conservative convictions and a compelling, selfmade narrative. Playing up her background—a "woman of Nara" who grew up outside the Tokyo bubble—she effectively contrasted her life with that of the blue-blooded Koizumi, whose name alone symbolised political heritage.

This triumph—the first woman to lead the LDP and, by extension, become the Prime Minister—is a powerful narrative of a political outsider breaking the most stubborn of ceilings. It is a win for the self-made politician over the scions of the Diet, signalling a possible, albeit cautious, shift in the LDP’s internal power dynamics, demanding a leader with conviction whose story resonates far beyond the polished halls of Kasumigaseki. Takaichi, the heavy metal drummer from Nara, now wields the baton of power, a profound symbol of change in a nation famously resistant to it. i

The Iron Lady of Japan Decoding Sanae Takaichi’s Unyielding Conservatism

Sanae Takaichi's rise to become Japan’s first female Prime Minister has inevitably earned her a sobriquet that evokes both admiration and trepidation: "The Iron Lady of Japan." This comparison to former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher is no accident; it is one Takaichi openly encourages, viewing the iconic British leader as a revered role model. The label reflects not just her gender in a male-dominated political sphere but, more crucially, her uncompromising, hardline conservative ideology and her reputation for resolute, unyielding political resolve.

THE POLITICAL AND PERSONAL PARALLELS TO THATCHER

The comparison between the two "Iron Ladies" rests on several distinct pillars of philosophy and personal style:

• Unflinching Ideology: Just as Thatcher was a champion of small government and monetarism in Britain, Takaichi is the standard-bearer for the right-wing nationalist wing of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Her political stances are clearly defined and rarely waver. She is a hawk on security, a proponent of muscular fiscal policy, and a staunch defender of traditional Japanese social values.

• Political Outsider Status: While Thatcher came from a modest background as a grocer's daughter, Takaichi, too, lacks the typical aristocratic or dynastic connections of many of her LDP colleagues. Both women achieved the highest office through sheer personal drive and an appeal that cut across established political elites, relying instead on the party's conservative grassroots base.

• Decisive and Uncompromising Leadership: Takaichi is known for a tenacious work ethic and a take-no-prisoners approach to policy debates. After her LDP presidential victory, she famously declared her intent to "scrap my work-life balance and work and work and work and work and work," echoing the image of a leader entirely devoted to the national cause, a trait that defined the Thatcher era.

This admiration is not merely rhetorical; Takaichi has been observed to emulate the Iron Lady’s style, sometimes wearing clothing and accessories that invoke the former British premier.

THE PILLAR OF HARD-LINE CONSERVATISM

Takaichi's policies and political philosophy

"This comparison to former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher is no accident; it is one Takaichi openly encourages, viewing the iconic British leader as a revered role model."

firmly place her at the right end of Japan's political spectrum, making her an ideological successor to her mentor, the late Shinzō Abe. Her conservatism is multifaceted, encompassing national security, economic strategy, and social tradition.

SECURITY HAWK AND NATIONALIST

On security and foreign policy, Takaichi’s views are perhaps her most hard-line:

• Constitutional Revision: She has long advocated for the revision of Article 9 of Japan's pacifist Constitution to explicitly codify and strengthen the status of the Self-Defense Forces (SDF), pushing for a more assertive military role for Japan in the region.

• Defence Spending: Takaichi fully supports the goal of increasing Japan's defence spending to 2 percent of GDP, aligning it with NATO standards—a clear response to the perceived security threats posed by China and North Korea.

• Historical Issues: Her regular visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, which honours Japan’s war dead, including convicted Class A war criminals, have drawn consistent, sharp condemnation from Beijing and Seoul. This stance is seen as a rejection of Japan's post-war apology diplomacy and a firm embrace of historical revisionism, further cementing her nationalist credentials.

ECONOMIC INTERVENTIONIST (SANAENOMICS)

While Thatcher championed fiscal austerity and privatisation, Takaichi's economic conservatism, often dubbed "Sanaenomics" or "New Abenomics," is a more interventionist version suited to Japan's unique challenges. She advocates for:

• Fiscal Expansion: Proactive, massive government spending, particularly "crisis management investment" in strategic sectors like semiconductors, AI, biotechnology, and defence, often proposing to fund this through bond issuance, raising concerns among fiscal moderates.

• Economic Security: She is a fervent champion of economic sovereignty, proposing tighter restrictions on foreign investment and stricter rules to protect Japanese technology from being siphoned off by foreign powers.

SOCIAL TRADITIONALIST

Takaichi's social conservatism contrasts sharply with the "progressive" optics of her gender breakthrough. She has consistently opposed:

• Same-Sex Marriage: Viewing it as a deviation from traditional Japanese family structures.

• Separate Surnames: She opposes reviewing the law that requires married couples to share one surname, supporting the preservation of traditional marriage norms.

• Female Imperial Succession: Takaichi maintains that imperial succession should be strictly limited to the male line.

A PARADOX OF PROGRESS

The "Iron Lady of Japan" thus presents a fascinating political paradox. Her historic victory as the first female Prime Minister breaks the country's highest "bamboo ceiling," yet she is no feminist champion in the liberal sense. Instead, her rise is a reflection of the LDP’s shift to embrace a powerful, clear-cut conservative agenda to energise its base, often by co-opting the energy of rising right-wing populist movements.

Her uncompromising style, while appealing to the party faithful, is simultaneously a source of political turbulence, having already been cited as a major factor in the collapse of the LDP's long-standing coalition with the dovish Komeito party. Like her British inspiration, Sanae Takaichi is poised to be a deeply polarising figure whose resolute conviction will define—and likely divide—Japan’s future. i

'Sanaenomics':

The Abenomics 2.0 Shift from Deflation to Security >

The economic platform of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, quickly dubbed 'Sanaenomics', is not a radical break but a clear continuation and evolution of the policies pioneered by her mentor, Shinzō Abe. Where Abenomics was primarily an aggressive strategy to combat decades of deflation, Sanaenomics is positioned as an expansionary, pro-growth agenda tailored to a new era of cost-push inflation and heightened geopolitical insecurity.

THE CONTINUITY OF THE 'THREE ARROWS' Takaichi's plan maintains the conceptual structure of Abenomics, often framed around 'three arrows', but with a significant shift in emphasis:

• Monetary Easing: Like her predecessor, Takaichi favours continued loose monetary policy by the Bank of Japan (BOJ). She believes the current inflation, driven largely by import costs and a weak yen, is "cost-push" rather than the "demand-pull" inflation necessary for confirming Japan has permanently escaped its deflationary trap. Her cautious stance is seen as pushing back against an immediate, aggressive interest rate hike by the BOJ, although she has stated the central bank retains autonomy in choosing policy tools.

• Expansionary Fiscal Policy: This is the most pronounced aspect of Sanaenomics, mirroring the first arrow of Abenomics but with an even greater push for government spending. Takaichi advocates for a "responsible proactive fiscal policy" and has indicated a willingness to issue deficit bonds to fund crucial measures.

• Structural Reform and Investment: While Abe struggled with the "third arrow," Takaichi is reframing it entirely. Her focus is less on deregulation and more on state-backed "crisis management investment" in strategic areas vital for national and economic security.

THE NEW ECONOMIC CORE: SECURITY-FIRST SPENDING

The defining feature of Sanaenomics is the merging of economic policy with national security. This goes beyond mere defence budgets and aims for self-sufficiency and technological sovereignty in an increasingly volatile world.

Priority Area Sanaenomics Goal

"Her cautious

stance is

seen

as

pushing back

against an immediate, aggressive interest rate hike by the BOJ, although she has stated the central bank retains autonomy in choosing policy tools."

This heavy reliance on state-directed spending, especially in technology and defence, caused the Nikkei 225 to surge and the Yen to weaken immediately following her election, as markets factored in higher inflation expectations and prolonged monetary easing.

FISCAL

POLICY: POPULIST RELIEF VS. FISCAL DISCIPLINE

Takaichi's economic plan is designed to directly address the cost-of-living crisis—the key domestic issue that has undermined the LDP's support. She plans to put money back into households' hands through:

• Refundable Tax Credits: A mechanism that acts as a form of "negative income tax," providing cash payments to low-income households that don't earn enough to benefit from standard tax cuts.

• Tax Relief: Abolishing the provisional gasoline

Defence Increase spending to 2 percent of GDP or more

tax rate and increasing the basic income tax deduction.

• Wage Policy: She prefers a 'high-pressure economy' (maintaining tight macro supplydemand conditions) to naturally push up wages, rather than the more direct governmentmandated minimum wage increases favoured by her predecessors. Her philosophy is focused on rewarding the working middle class.

However, this push for expansive fiscal policy runs a high risk of stoking inflation and further ballooning Japan's already immense national debt, creating tension with the Ministry of Finance's (MoF) drive for fiscal discipline.

RELATIONSHIP WITH THE BANK OF JAPAN (BOJ)

Perhaps the most controversial aspect of Sanaenomics is Takaichi’s assertive stance toward the central bank. She has explicitly stated that the government bears responsibility for both fiscal and monetary policy, sparking concern over the BOJ's independence.

While she acknowledges the BOJ's autonomy in selecting tools, her assertion that the direction of policy should be coordinated with the government is seen by critics as a direct attempt to lean on the central bank to delay any further rate hikes. This is crucial as the BOJ is currently navigating the tricky path of normalising rates after years of ultra-loose policy—a path Takaichi's expansionary fiscal impulse makes significantly more challenging. In effect, Takaichi is demanding BOJ compliance to keep the nominal interest rate below the nominal growth rate, a key condition for managing Japan's debt pile. i

Economic Impact

Massive procurement and R&D spending, boosting Japan's (aligning with NATO standards). defence industry and related technology sectors.

Technology Targeted investment in fields like AI, semiconductors, Fostering high-value domestic industries, reducing reliance on China quantum computing, and nuclear fusion. and other foreign suppliers, and promoting next-generation growth.

Resilience Strengthening economic security laws to guard against Increased state control over strategic supply chains, potentially foreign tech acquisition and ensure stable supplies of leading to domestic production subsidies. food, energy, and pharmaceuticals.

An Unflinching Trajectory: Assessing the Likely Transformation of Japan under Takaichi

Sanae Takaichi’s premiership, if she can navigate the immediate challenge of forging a working parliamentary coalition, is unlikely to usher in a new era of reformist politics. Instead, it is poised to accelerate a major ideological shift already underway, moving Japan towards a more nationalist, security-driven state that is prepared to take bolder, more divisive steps on the global stage. Her tenure will be a test of whether hardline conservatism can address the deep-seated economic and demographic vulnerabilities of modern Japan.

FOREIGN POLICY: THE RISE OF AN ASSERTIVE JAPAN

Takaichi's impact will be most keenly felt in foreign and security policy, where she promises a departure from the measured pragmatism of recent predecessors:

• Constitutional Revision (Article 9): Takaichi will use the full weight of the Prime Minister’s office to push for the formal revision of the pacifist Article 9 of the Constitution. While Shinzō Abe laid the groundwork, Takaichi’s unwavering commitment to the issue makes it a central pillar of her mandate. If successful, this would be a watershed moment, fundamentally redefining Japan’s self-defence capabilities and its role in global security.

• Security-First Diplomacy: The commitment to increase defence spending to 2 percent of GDP or more is non-negotiable. This will translate into large-scale investment in counter-strike capabilities and advanced military hardware, significantly enhancing Japan's deterrent posture.

• Regional Tensions: As a renowned China hawk and a strong supporter of Taiwan, Takaichi's diplomacy is likely to be assertive and confrontational. Her historical revisionism, particularly her stance on the Yasukuni Shrine, risks undoing the recent,

fragile thawing of relations with South Korea and will undoubtedly draw ire from Beijing, leading to a potential spike in regional tensions and military 'testing the waters' by adversaries.

• US Alliance as a Cornerstone: Despite the potential volatility of the Trump administration, Takaichi's focus on burden-sharing and her own hardline stance make her an ideologically compatible partner for Washington. She will strengthen the US-Japan alliance and push for deeper multilateral cooperation through blocs like the Quad.

DOMESTIC ECONOMY: THE SOVEREIGNTY-GROWTH TRADE-OFF

On the domestic front, the transformation under 'Sanaenomics' will be an experiment in boosting growth through targeted state intervention, with two key long-term implications:

• Securitised Economy: As former Minister for Economic Security, Takaichi will permanently embed security concerns into economic policy. Expect massive state-backed investments in strategic technologies (semiconductors, AI, nuclear power) aimed at achieving national self-sufficiency and protecting supply chains. This represents a partial retreat from free-market globalisation towards a more state-capitalist, national-interest model.

• Fiscal Risk and Inflation: Her expansionary fiscal policy, coupled with her pressure on the Bank of Japan to delay rate hikes, poses a significant risk to Japan’s already precarious financial situation. While it may provide short-term relief to households and a boost to the stock market, the long-term danger is that it locks Japan into a permanent cycle of debt-fuelled spending and a persistently weak yen, exacerbating imported inflation and undermining the fragile push for fiscal discipline by the Ministry of Finance.

Takaichi's election as the first female Prime Minister is a historic symbol, yet her conservative social agenda suggests she will not be a torchbearer for broad liberal social transformation:

• Limited Gender Reform: While she has pledged to appoint more women to her cabinet, her opposition to gender equality reforms such as legalising separate surnames for married couples and female imperial succession means that the underlying patriarchal norms of Japanese society and the LDP will remain largely unchallenged. Her premiership embodies the paradox of descriptive representation without substantive reform.

• Immigration Hardening: A crucial area where Takaichi promises a definite shift is immigration. Capitalising on populist sentiment, she has called for tighter restrictions and stricter enforcement against overstayers and illegal migrants. This stance risks further complicating Japan’s chronic labour shortage, a demographic time-bomb that requires increasing, not restricting, foreign workers. Instead of facilitating long-term integration, her policies may intensify the divide between an aging Japanese core and the foreign workforce it desperately needs.

In essence, Sanae Takaichi’s likely transformation of Japan is one of hardening resolve—nationally, economically, and ideologically. She is poised to be a pivotal figure who consolidates the nationalist, conservative legacy of Shinzō Abe, seeking to forge a more assertive and resilient Japan, even if it means sacrificing internal consensus and international stability with key neighbours in the process. The question for Japan is whether her Iron Lady conviction can overcome the structural headwinds and political instability of a fractured Diet. i

Autumn 2025 Special The Power of the Maverick: How Thinking Differently Drives Business Success

Inaworldthatprizesconformityandconventionalwisdom,enduringsuccessoftenbelongstothosewho refusetofollowthecrowd.Thisseriesexploresthelivesofsixbusinessleaders—fromRichardBransontoTemple Grandin—whonotonlysucceededbythinkingdifferentlybutturnedtheirdistinctiveperspectivesintoaforcefor innovation,growthandchange.

In business, as in life, there is a powerful gravitational pull towards the familiar. We are taught to follow best practice, learn from case studies and adhere to established industry norms. On the surface, this makes sense: it minimises risk, reduces friction and offers a well-trodden path. But in a rapidly changing world, that path can lead to a dead end.

The modern challenge is not to be the best at what everyone else is doing; it is to create something genuinely new. That demands the courage to break from the herd, challenge assumptions and spot opportunities invisible to others. This is the domain of the maverick— the iconoclast who thinks differently.

This series is dedicated to such individuals. They are not defined by their backgrounds or formal education, but by how they see the world. They looked at stale industries and found better ways to serve customers. Some embraced their neurodiversity as a source of strength. They refused to accept the status quo and chose to write their own rules.

BEYOND THE BOX: A DIFFERENT KIND OF MINDSET

Thinking differently is not merely about creativity; it reflects a distinct cognitive style—often intuitive, lateral or visual—less constrained by linear, rule-bound approaches. It connects seemingly unrelated ideas and discovers novel solutions to old problems.

Consider Richard Branson. A leader who struggled with the written word, he built an empire on judgement, simplicity and human connection. Dyslexia, which made traditional learning a challenge, became an advantage:

it pushed him to distil complexity and focus on the big picture. He did not build a better airline by poring over a rival’s balance sheet; he built one by creating an emotional bond with customers.

Likewise, Barbara Corcoran turned dyslexia and ADHD into assets in New York’s cutthroat real-estate market. She relied less on spreadsheets and more on visualising potential and crafting compelling narratives. She viewed real estate not as a set of properties, but as a portfolio of dreams—spotting prospects others missed.

The value of this mindset is evident in the “first principles” approach popularised by Elon Musk, which helped reshape automotive and aerospace. Operating on the autism spectrum, his method deconstructs complex systems and rebuilds them from fundamentals, free of legacy assumptions. He did not refine the petrol engine; he reimagined the car.

THE NEURODIVERGENT ADVANTAGE

These leaders challenge conventional definitions of success. They demonstrate that a different mind is not a flaw but a formidable asset. In an increasingly complex world, the ability to view problems from alternative angles creates disproportionate value.

Temple Grandin transformed the livestock industry by “thinking in pictures”. By understanding the sensory experience of animals, she designed humane handling systems that were ethically sound and operationally efficient—achieved not through traditional engineering templates, but through deep empathy and observation.

David Neeleman leveraged ADHD to become a serial airline entrepreneur. His restless, idea-rich mind—ill-suited to rigid corporate environments—thrived in the dynamism of start-ups. He saw puzzles rather than problems, connecting disparate insights to build airlines that were more efficient, more customercentric and more profitable.

Luke Manton showed how businesses can not only accommodate neurodiversity, but thrive because of it. After a brain injury led to Tourette’s syndrome, he built a successful virtual-assistant agency tailored to the way he works best. His journey underlines how authenticity and resilience can power commercial success—and how perceived weakness can become profound strength.

A SERIES FOR A NEW ERA

As artificial intelligence automates routine tasks, human advantage shifts to creativity, empathy and the capacity to think beyond the obvious. The leaders profiled here are more than business icons; they are pioneers of a different way of thinking. Their stories suggest that the greatest competitive edge is not simply a better product or a lower price, but a distinctive perspective.

The purpose of this series is to inspire—to show entrepreneurs, leaders and teams that it is not only acceptable to be different; it is often decisive. Change rarely comes from those who only follow the rules. It comes from those prepared to question them. The future belongs to mavericks and visionaries—people unafraid to be themselves. This series is an ode to that courage, and a celebration of the power of a different kind of mind. i

>

BARBARA CORCORAN

The School of Hard Knocks: Turning Dyslexia into a Business Superpower

Barbara Corcoran, the real-estate mogul and “Shark Tank” investor, has built a multi-million-pound empire on grit, charisma and an unrelenting drive to succeed. The secret to her unconventional edge? Dyslexia and ADHD—traits she credits with giving her the creative vision and distinctive perspective needed to thrive in a cut-throat industry.

THE UNDERDOG’S JOURNEY

Corcoran’s story is not one of inherited wealth or Ivy League credentials. It is a classic underdog tale, forged in a large, working-class family in Edgewater, New Jersey. The second of ten children, she learned resourcefulness and resilience early. School was a struggle: dyslexia meant she could not read as quickly or comprehend as easily as her peers. Labelled “the dumb kid”, she spent much of her academic life feeling insecure. Yet outside the classroom she was a natural leader with an instinctive ability to connect— a duality that would define her career.

Her early working life was a whirlwind of odd jobs—diner waitress, high-school dropout, receptionist—a self-taught curriculum in human behaviour and sales. The turning point came with a receptionist role at a real-estate office, where she saw the chance to combine people skills with a sharp, visual mind. Borrowing a thousand pounds from her then boyfriend, she founded The Corcoran Group in 1973. The first office was a tiny Manhattan space; capital was minimal, vision was not.

THE CREATIVE ADVANTAGE

Conventional wisdom in New York real estate held that success depended on networks, connections and encyclopedic market knowledge. Corcoran leaned on different strengths. Dyslexia, she believes, gave her a unique creative lens. Unable to process information in a strictly linear way, she learned to see patterns and opportunities others missed—thinking in pictures, visualising potential and uncovering the story behind each home.

That visual thinking proved a powerful asset. While others led with facts and figures, Corcoran led with marketing and emotion. She pioneered storytelling to sell properties, crafting narratives that made homes feel distinctive and desirable. She understood that a house is not merely a set of rooms; it is a future for a family, a canvas for dreams. This empathy, paired with boundless energy—an attribute she links to ADHD—enabled her to out-hustle and out-think competitors.

She also excelled at unconventional marketing. When listings lacked attention, she launched The Corcoran Report, a newsletter offering a clear

snapshot of Manhattan’s market. More than a promotional tool, it translated complex data into simple, visually engaging insights. The report became an industry reference point, conferring authority on the firm. It was a canny move born of her need—and her clients’—for information presented clearly and memorably.

BUILDING A CULTURE OF CONNECTION

The Corcoran Group’s rise was not only about its founder; it was about the culture she built. Eschewing heavy formalism, she hired for attitude and ambition, not just experience. She fostered camaraderie and fun, convinced that happy agents work harder and deliver more.

Her own learning style shaped her management. Because she had to simplify information for herself, she communicated with clarity and economy. There were no needlessly long instructions or bureaucratic processes—just the big picture and the trust to execute. Tireless and celebratory, she led from the front, creating a workplace that felt more like a family than a corporation.

A SECOND ACT AS A SHARK

After selling her firm for a substantial sum,

Corcoran could have retired. Instead, her entrepreneurial energy found a new stage on “Shark Tank”. She became known for a nononsense style, sharp instincts and a talent for spotting both a promising idea and the entrepreneur behind it. Her blend of creativity and plain-spoken wisdom made her a trusted figure to viewers and founders alike.

Her success on the show reflects her neurodivergent strengths. Rather than fixating on elaborate plans and projections, she focuses on people. She reads founders and situations quickly, trusting an intuitive grasp of human nature to see potential others might overlook. She knows great businesses are built on passion as much as on profit-and-loss statements.

Barbara Corcoran’s journey—from struggling student to real-estate titan and investor— underscores that a different mind is not a flaw but a formidable asset. Traits often labelled as weaknesses—a difficulty with reading, relentless energy, a disregard for convention—can, in the right environment, become the very engines of success. For anyone who has felt like an outsider, her story is a reminder that the greatest advantage in business can be the courage to be yourself.

> TEMPLE GRANDIN

The Woman Who Thinks in Pictures

Temple Grandin, professor and animal-welfare advocate, has transformed the livestock industry through a distinctive way of seeing the world. Diagnosed with autism at a time when the condition was poorly understood, she turned a perceived disability into an advantage— showing how a different mode of thinking can deliver groundbreaking innovation and a deeper understanding of animal behaviour.

A WORLD OF SENSORY DETAIL

Growing up in the 1950s, Grandin encountered a landscape of misunderstanding around autism. Unable to speak until the age of four, she was initially labelled as having “brain damage”, and institutionalisation was recommended. Her mother refused to accept that verdict, securing speech therapy and a school prepared to meet her needs.

From an early age, it was clear that Grandin’s mind worked differently. While others processed information through language and social cues, she processed it through images—a stream of vivid, moving pictures. This cognitive style, which she calls “thinking in pictures”, brought challenges in social settings but conferred an exceptional ability to observe the world in minute, sensory detail.

That visual acuity found purpose during early work on a family ranch. She watched how cattle reacted to shadows, reflections in puddles and the flapping of a flag. For her, these were not abstractions but concrete stimuli that could trigger fear. If she could see the world as the animals saw it, she realised, she could design calmer, more humane environments. The insight became the basis of her career in animal behaviour and facility design.

THE “SQUEEZE

MACHINE”

AND A LEAP OF EMPATHY Grandin’s path into animal welfare began with a personal solution. As a teenager, she built a “squeeze machine”, inspired by hydraulic chutes used to hold cattle during vaccinations. The deep, even pressure soothed her hypersensitive nervous system. That experience provided a direct window into the sensory lives of animals— overload, anxiety and the calming effect of gentle, consistent pressure.

Drawing on this empathy, she redesigned handling systems to minimise stress: replacing sharp turns with curves, eliminating problematic shadows and glare, and using gentle slopes with solid-sided chutes to create a sense of safety. “I think in pictures, and that’s how I figured out what the cattle were afraid of. It’s the little things that scare them,” she has said.

Her method was grounded in observation rather than theory. She would kneel in chutes to view

the world from an animal’s perspective, noticing a loose chain, a reflective surface or a sudden change in light—details a neurotypical observer might overlook. Fixing such “small” issues produced systems that were both more humane and more efficient.

A QUIET REVOLUTION

Grandin’s ideas initially met scepticism in an industry dominated by blueprints and models rather than discussions of “animal emotions”. Yet her designs worked: they reduced animal stress, improved meat quality and enhanced worker safety. Adoption followed, and her approach has since become standard in facilities across North America.

Beyond design, she has been a tireless advocate for autism awareness and neurodiversity.

Through books, lectures and interviews, she has demystified her way of thinking and championed the value of different cognitive styles—visual, pattern and verbal. Her message is clear: societies and industries innovate best when they recognise and nurture varied kinds of minds.

Grandin’s legacy is a testament to the power of one distinctive intellect. She did not rely on a traditional business plan; her business was her mind, and her product a new way of seeing. She has shown that a different brain is not a broken one but a different operating system—capable of solving problems others might never frame. In a world that too often prizes conformity, her life represents a quiet, enduring revolution—one that deepens our understanding of animals and, ultimately, of ourselves.

ELON MUSK

The Asperger’s Advantage: How a Different Mind Is Reshaping Humanity

Elon Musk is not a conventional leader. His public persona can appear erratic, his communication blunt, and his business bets audacious. Beneath that relentlessness lies a mind that operates differently from the norm. His Asperger’s syndrome, a condition on the autism spectrum, is not a limitation but a defining feature of his problemsolving—central to his ability to tackle complex, systemic challenges.

THE OUTSIDER’S PERSPECTIVE

From an early age, Musk was an outsider. Growing up in Pretoria, he was a quiet, bookish child, often ostracised and bullied. He found refuge in science fiction, the logic of computers and the grand narratives of space exploration. Hours alone became hours of focused inquiry—a hallmark of his neurodivergence.

Where peers learned social cues and unspoken rules, Musk learned to code. He has spoken candidly about taking things literally and finding implicit norms difficult. What can read as awkwardness in public settings has, in business, become an advantage. He does not see “the way things are done”; he sees systems reducible to fundamentals that can be reassembled from first principles.

That approach—first-principles thinking—sits at the heart of his success: deconstructing problems to their basic elements and reasoning upward without reliance on industry habit or analogy. Confronted with the high cost of rocket components, he interrogated raw-material inputs and manufacturing assumptions, exposing scope for radical cost reduction—thinking that underpins SpaceX’s founding premise.

BUILDING A MULTI-PLANETARY FUTURE

SpaceX embodies this mindset. The company pursues a singular vision: enabling humanity to become a multi-planetary species. What to many seems impossibly distant is, for Musk, a necessary and solvable engineering problem. He holds a long-term objective in view while obsessing over executional detail.

His hands-on style—sleeping at factories, scrutinising designs, debating tolerances— reflects hyper-focus. It is not management for its own sake; it is puzzle-solving. He engages directly with the hardest technical issues, often alongside engineers for days on end. That intensity has shaped a culture of rigorous engineering and relentless iteration.

THE ELECTRIC REVOLUTION

Tesla also reflects this cognitive style. When Musk joined, electric vehicles were widely dismissed as impractical. He did not see a flawed niche product so much as a flawed system. The

solution required rethinking batteries, factories, charging networks and the business model. Vertical integration—once unfashionable in autos—became strategic necessity.

The focus was not short-term profit but the long-term objective of a sustainable energy ecosystem. Willing to endure years of scepticism and financial strain, he pushed towards scale with “gigafactories”: vast, vertically integrated hubs built for throughput and cost discipline. It is the expression of a mind that not only imagines a future, but insists on constructing every critical piece of it.

A NEW KIND OF LEADERSHIP

Musk’s leadership style attracts criticism: a demanding work ethic, impatience with bureaucracy and an asocial communication

style. These traits are closely tied to his neurodivergence. He avoids small talk and office politics, moves directly to substance and treats inefficiency as a correctable flaw in a system. While teams are often stretched, many are motivated by the mission-led clarity and the conviction that they are addressing consequential problems.

In a world that frequently rewards conformity, Musk illustrates the power of thinking differently. Asperger’s is not a deficiency to be overcome but a source of perspective, focus and ambition. His career suggests that a different kind of mind can build a different kind of future. For a rising generation of neurodivergent thinkers, the message is clear: a unique way of seeing the world is not a weakness, but a tool with which to change it.

LUKE MANTON

The Tourette’s Trailblazer: How Embracing His Tics Fueled Success

Luke Manton’s path to entrepreneurship is a study in resilience and radical self-acceptance. After a life-altering brain injury led to Tourette’s syndrome, he might have let the condition define him. Instead, he built a business that not only accommodates his tics but thrives because of them—demonstrating how a different mind can power meaningful change.

FROM ATHLETE TO ADVOCATE

Manton’s life shifted after a devastating rugby injury, when an opponent fell on him and caused severe brain trauma. In the months that followed, involuntary movements and vocal tics emerged. Diagnosed with Tourette’s at 21—a neurological condition characterised by involuntary tics—he faced more than a medical label; he confronted a profound personal and professional reckoning. Traditional office work became daunting, and a return to his previous trajectory seemed impossible. Doctors and career advisers warned his options would be limited.

He chose a different course. Rather than accept a narrow prognosis, Manton reframed Tourette’s as a design challenge. The conventional workplace—quiet, rigid, and socially exacting— was ill-suited to his neurodiversity. The stress of suppressing tics was exhausting; the stigma surrounding them turned routine meetings into trials. That friction catalysed his entrepreneurial impulse. He founded Manton Executives, a virtual-assistant (VA) agency structured around his needs and strengths.

A BUSINESS BUILT ON FLEXIBILITY AND TRUST

Flexibility sits at the heart of Manton Executives. Operating as a VA agency enables Manton to work from home—an environment where he can let tics run their course without judgement. Free from the performative demands of an open-plan office, he can concentrate on output rather than suppression.

The agency’s growth rests on his ability to recruit and empower a highly capable team. Lived experience with disability has honed his empathy and sharpened his eye for potential. He builds on trust and mutual respect, preferring autonomy over hierarchy and process for its own sake. The result is a culture that prioritises reliability, quality and strong client relationships.

Tourette’s has also proved a commercial asset. The condition has reinforced habits of candour, stamina and directness. Manton addresses adversity head-on, communicates plainly and does not shy away from vulnerability. That authenticity—paired with an unwavering commitment to deliver—has made him a compelling leader. Clients respond to his nononsense approach and the integrity with which

he operates. Professionalism, he shows, is less about perfect composure than consistent results.

AN ADVOCATE FOR INCLUSIVITY

Manton has become a vocal advocate for neurodiversity and inclusive work design. He shares his story publicly to challenge stereotypes about Tourette’s and other neurological conditions, arguing that businesses overlook a substantial talent pool when they fail to be flexible and accommodating. His example makes the case that people are defined by their abilities and resilience, not by a diagnosis.

His journey offers a counter-narrative to the familiar business myth. Success here is not

fuelled by swagger or zero-sum competition; it comes from building a model that fits the person, turning a perceived weakness into a source of strength and using lived experience to create value. Manton has built a business that is profitable—and purposeful.

From a career-ending injury to entrepreneurial success, his story is a beacon for anyone who has been told they cannot. It demonstrates the human capacity for reinvention and the creative power of a different mind. Luke Manton shows that thriving begins with embracing who you are—tics and all. In a world that often prizes conformity, he stands as a persuasive voice for authenticity and inclusion.

SIR RICHARD BRANSON

The Dyslexic Maverick Who Built an Empire

Sir Richard Branson’s unconventional approach to business has made him one of the world’s most recognisable entrepreneurs. From a student magazine to a global brand spanning music, airlines, telecoms and space, his secret weapon has been dyslexia—championed as a creative superpower rather than a constraint.

THE REBEL WITH A CAUSE

In the boardroom of Virgin Group’s headquarters hangs a photograph not of a corporate titan but of a young man with a rebellious mop of hair and a mischievous grin. It captures Branson’s defining trait: a lifelong refusal to conform. He has never been a man of spreadsheets and quarterly minutiae. The Virgin empire was not built on business-school orthodoxy but on a distinctive, often chaotic, brand of maverick thinking—with dyslexia at its core.

School was a struggle. Branson, labelled lazy or unintelligent, left at 16 without formal qualifications. For many, that would have been a setback; for him, it proved liberating. Free of an education system that did not suit his thinking style, he pursued ideas with instinct and urgency. His first venture, Student magazine—launched from a London church crypt—prioritised big ideas and emotional connection over immaculate syntax. The lesson was clear: vision and voice trumped pedantry.

Dyslexia sharpened his ability to simplify complexity, communicate directly and spot opportunities others missed. While peers studied

the fine print, Branson honed a visceral grasp of people, brands and service—learning that a great idea, passionately executed, beats tidy theory.

FROM STUDENTTO SOUND

Student became the springboard for Virgin Records. In the early 1970s, the industry was rigid and dominated by incumbents. Branson sensed a chance to serve music fans differently. He opened a quirky Oxford Street record shop with beanbags, free coffee and a welcoming atmosphere—a destination as much as a store. Customer experience and informality soon became Virgin hallmarks.

That ethos carried into artist selection. Branson backed unconventional talent—Mike Oldfield and the Sex Pistols among them—often rejected by major labels. He trusted gut and brand fit as much as spreadsheets. Signing the Sex Pistols was risky but defining, cementing Virgin’s antiestablishment identity and forging a community that identified with the label’s attitude as much as its catalogue.

TAKING TO THE SKIES

The launch of Virgin Atlantic in 1984 was Branson’s most audacious move. Aviation was an oligopoly dominated by state-backed carriers; conventional wisdom said a newcomer could not compete. Branson chose not to fight on price alone but to reimagine the experience. While rivals treated passengers like cargo, Virgin foregrounded fun, style and personal service— complete with a founder who gamely donned

wedding gowns or flight-attendant uniforms to promote the brand.

Success owed much to neurodivergent strengths. Big-picture thinking kept the entire journey— from booking to arrival—in view. An aversion to bureaucratic detail encouraged empowerment and responsiveness. Branson managed by proximity to staff and customers, not solely by models and metrics, creating a culture where innovation was expected and failure treated as learning.

THE BRAND AS A FORCE FOR GOOD

Branson’s perspective has also shaped philanthropy and advocacy. He helped found The Elders, championed environmental protection and used plain language to communicate complex issues. Dyslexia, far from limiting him, has sharpened empathy and connection—qualities that reinforce Virgin’s people-centred ethos.

Today, Virgin is a sprawling conglomerate and a testament to refusing definition by limitation. Branson shows that difference can be a source of strength: a creative, intuitive mind can build enterprises more enduring than those engineered solely by conventional logic.

In a business world obsessed with metrics, he stands as a reminder that the rarest asset is a unique way of seeing. For the student struggling at school or the founder told an idea is too wild, his story offers permission—and proof—that a different mind is not a flaw but a superpower waiting to be unleashed.

DAVID NEELEMAN

The High-Flyer with ADHD: How a Restless Mind Revolutionised Air Travel

David Neeleman is not a typical airline executive. Founder of five carriers, he pairs relentless entrepreneurial drive with a knack for spotting opportunity where others see only constraint. He credits his success to ADHD—an atypical focus that fuels idea generation, multitasking and a willingness to challenge orthodoxy—turning a perceived weakness into competitive advantage.

THE BORN ENTREPRENEUR

Neeleman’s journey illustrates the power of a restless, unconventional mind. As a child he struggled with concentration and boundless energy that made school difficult. Later diagnosed with ADHD, he came to view it as the engine of his creativity. By his own account, ADHD makes him a poor employee but an excellent entrepreneur— able to juggle multiple concepts at once and detect connections others miss.

His first major foray into aviation was Morris Air, the charter carrier he co-founded in 1984. From the outset he innovated through technology, pioneering electronic ticketing that simplified bookings and eliminated paper tickets—an early example of using customer-centric design to reset industry norms. After selling Morris Air to Southwest, he briefly joined the acquirer, but the bureaucracy of a large organisation proved ill-suited to his speed and style. The lesson was decisive: to innovate, he needed to be in charge.

THE JETBLUE REVOLUTION

In 1998 he launched JetBlue with a clear ambition: make flying pleasurable again. At the time, US airlines were synonymous with hidden fees, cramped cabins and indifferent service. Neeleman’s ADHD-driven systems thinking— deconstructing the end-to-end journey and rebuilding it—produced a different model.

He fixated on details that mattered to passengers: live TV at every seat, generous legroom, free snacks and consistently friendly crews. What looked like small perks required complex execution, but delivered outsized loyalty. His hyper-focus enabled him to scrutinise every touchpoint—from booking to baggage claim— and to iterate quickly.

He also found inventive solutions to structural constraints. Concerned about pilot costs, he recruited retirees on flexible schedules. He pushed online ticket sales to bypass intermediaries and reduce distribution expense. These moves reflected a mind unbound by “how it’s always been done”.

A GLOBAL ENTREPRENEUR

JetBlue was the beginning, not the endpoint. Neeleman went on to found Azul in Brazil, targeting underserved cities and stimulating regional connectivity and growth. More recently,

Breeze Airways has focused on point-to-point routes linking smaller markets, bypassing congested hubs to make travel more convenient and affordable.

Restlessness remains a feature, not a bug. He describes a mind that is always racing—generating ideas, scanning for gaps and assembling new combinations. In entrepreneurship, that energy becomes an asset: seeing around corners, anticipating demand and carving niches in crowded markets.

THE POWER OF NEURODIVERSITY

Neeleman’s career underscores how neurodiversity can be a source of strength in business. ADHD has encouraged calculated risk-taking, lateral thinking and solutions that serve customers as well as the bottom line. He has built enduring companies not in spite of his condition but, in many respects, because of it.

In a world increasingly alive to the value of different minds, his example is instructive. Lack of conventional focus can translate into creative brilliance; restless energy can be channelled into disciplined execution. For the next generation of founders, the lesson is clear: the most valuable asset may be less a perfect plan than a perspective brave enough to see—and build— the world anew.

Navigating the Continent’s Most Business-Friendly Nations

In the shifting currents of global commerce, Europe continues to project innovation, stability and opportunity. For companies seeking to expand, innovate or establish a foothold, identifying the most fertile ground is paramount. This year, as economic tides ebb and flow, a select group of nations stands out through forward-looking policy, robust infrastructure and a clear commitment to fostering entrepreneurial success. From competitive tax regimes to highly skilled workforces and vibrant innovation ecosystems, these countries offer more than a place to operate; they confer strategic advantage.

"B

usiness-friendly” is multifaceted. It spans the ease of starting and operating a company, the predictability of legal and regulatory frameworks, access to talent and finance, the burden of taxation, and the quality of hard and digital infrastructure. It also includes an intangible but vital ingredient: a culture that embraces enterprise, encourages innovation and streamlines process. A close look reveals a continent in evolution, where traditional powerhouses maintain their appeal while agile newcomers carve distinct niches.

IRELAND: THE CELTIC TIGER’S ENDURING ROAR

Ireland’s journey from crisis to global business hub reflects strategic consistency and adaptability. A corporate tax rate of 12.5 percent on trading income—among the lowest in the OECD—has long anchored its appeal, drawing multinational leaders in technology, pharmaceuticals and financial services and cementing Dublin’s role as a European headquarters location. The proposition extends beyond tax. A young, English-speaking, highly educated workforce, strong intellectual property protections and active state support—via R&D credits and innovation grants through Enterprise Ireland—have cultivated a deep base of highvalue activity. While global reforms such as the OECD’s Pillar Two prompt adjustments, Ireland’s pro-business stance and position bridging the EU and US continue to underpin its prominence.

THE NETHERLANDS: GATEWAY TO EUROPE, ENGINE OF INNOVATION

The Netherlands consistently ranks near the top for business, supported by strategic geography, world-class logistics—Rotterdam and Schiphol—and an international, Englishproficient workforce. Corporate tax of 19 percent up to ō200,000 and 25.8 percent above that provides a clear framework, but policies that reward innovation are the real differentiator. A collaborative “triple helix” linking government, academia and industry powers strengths in high-tech systems, agri-food, life sciences and clean technologies. Incentives such as the WBSO R&D credit and innovation-box treatment complement a progressive social compact and streamlined immigration pathways for skilled talent. A sustained push on digitalisation and the circular economy positions the Netherlands for the next wave of sustainable, tech-led growth.

LUXEMBOURG: THE GRAND DUCHY’S FINANCIAL PROWESS

Luxembourg punches far above its size as a centre for finance, private equity and funds, combining political stability with sophisticated regulation and a broad treaty network. For 2025, the corporate income tax is set at 16 percent, bringing the consolidated burden in Luxembourg City—after municipal business tax and the employment fund surcharge—to roughly 23.87 percent. Ongoing modernisation, including adjustments to net wealth tax,

"The combination of sound policy, global opportunity, and a skilled workforce has propelled the nation from the margins of Europe’s economy to the centre."

clarifications on share-class redemptions and extended subscription-tax exemptions for actively managed ETFs, reinforces competitiveness. Beyond finance, investment in data centres, cybersecurity and space technologies signals thoughtful diversification. A multilingual talent pool and predictable governance continue to attract long-term capital.

ESTONIA: EUROPE’S DIGITAL PIONEER

Estonia offers a frictionless digital state and a standout proposition for founders. E-residency enables entrepreneurs to register and run a company online from anywhere, and a distinctive tax model—zero corporate income tax on retained and reinvested earnings, with tax due only on distributions—rewards scale and reinvestment. A transparent system and minimal administrative friction complement a deep bench of IT talent, a rising tally of unicorns and targeted initiatives such as Startup and Nomad Visas. Tallinn’s ascent in global rankings reflects strengths in transportation tech, cybersecurity and publicsector digital infrastructure, making Estonia a compelling base for digital-native businesses.

SWITZERLAND: STABILITY, INNOVATION AND HIGH VALUE

Switzerland consistently ranks among the world’s most competitive economies, known for political stability, a strong currency, impeccable IP protection and high quality of life. While outside the EU, extensive bilateral accords sustain seamless commerce. Corporate tax varies by canton, with a combined national average near 19.7 percent. The country’s edge lies in exceptional human capital, worldleading research institutions and depth in high-value sectors spanning pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, finance, precision manufacturing and luxury goods. Despite higher living costs and a strong franc, the predictability of regulation, the efficiency of public administration and targeted innovation incentives create a premium address for long-horizon investment.

GERMANY: EUROPE’S INDUSTRIAL POWERHOUSE

Germany pairs Europe’s largest domestic market with engineering excellence, central geography and superb infrastructure. A combined corporate tax rate around 29.9 percent is offset by extensive grants and incentives for R&D, innovation and job creation in strategic sectors. The dual

education system reliably produces highly skilled workers across automotive, advanced manufacturing and information technology. Germany’s legal certainty, IP protections and scale of private-sector R&D support make it a natural base for firms seeking both stability and technical depth, even as investment patterns evolve and competition for FDI intensifies.

THE NORDICS: INNOVATION WITH SOCIAL SOLIDITY

Denmark, Sweden, Finland and Norway offer a distinctive blend of innovation capacity, transparent governance and social cohesion. Competitive corporate tax—roughly 22 percent in Denmark and Norway, 20.6 percent in Sweden and 20 percent in Finland—sits alongside generous R&D incentives and efficient digital administration. Dynamic startup scenes, particularly in fintech, gaming, clean energy and health tech, benefit from highly educated workforces and strong publicprivate collaboration. Although costs can be high, especially in Norway and Sweden, the combination of trust, talent and reliable institutions delivers productivity and resilience.

REFORM MOMENTUM IN SPAIN AND ITALY

Southern Europe is moving to improve competitiveness. Spain has surged in announced FDI projects, supported by a 25 percent corporate tax rate, comparatively lower energy and labour costs, ample land supply and significant NextGenerationEU funding. Strong tourism and a growing technology base underpin activity, with heightened focus on digital security, automation and sustainability. Italy is advancing legal reforms to enhance its appeal, with the 2025 Budget Law introducing hiring incentives, targeted reliefs and a reduced corporate income tax—cutting IRES from 24 percent to 20 percent—for companies that reinvest at least 80 percent of profits and expand headcount, including allocations for Industry 4.0 and 5.0 assets and support for SME listings. Regional tax credits aimed at the South complement the drive to catalyse investment.

NAVIGATING THE NUANCES

Choosing the “most business-friendly” jurisdiction is never a one-size-fits-all exercise. Beyond headline tax, decisions hinge on market size, talent access, regulatory predictability, infrastructure quality, innovation ecosystems and cultural fit. Europe’s landscape is dynamic, with countries continuously refining policy to attract and retain capital. From Estonia’s digital ease and Luxembourg’s financial sophistication to Germany’s industrial depth, the Netherlands’ gateway advantages, the Nordics’ innovative stability and the reforming zeal of Spain and Italy, opportunities abound. For enterprises charting a course across the continent, rigorous due diligence and a nuanced grasp of national strengths will be the most reliable compass to long-term success.mitment to ensuring that prosperity reaches every corner of society. i

> Berenberg Investment Consulting: Innovation at the Heart of Institutional Advisory

With centuries of banking tradition, Berenberg continues to evolve, combining deep expertise with technological innovation. Under the leadership of Michael Kreibich, the bank’s Investment Consulting platform is redefining asset allocation and liability management for institutional and ultra-high-net-worth clients.

Berenberg, one of Europe’s oldest banks, offers a full spectrum of financial services spanning wealth management, asset management, corporate banking, and investment banking. Collaboration is central to its approach. “We are connected and work as one team,” notes Klaus Naeve, Head of Wealth and Asset Management and Member of the Extended Management Board. “Not only with our colleagues but also with our clients.”

LEADERSHIP SPOTLIGHT: MICHAEL KREIBICH

Among Berenberg’s leadership is Michael Kreibich, who joined the firm in 2009. For a decade he worked as a portfolio manager and product specialist, overseeing bespoke mandates and mutual funds. In 2019, he founded and became Head of Investment Consulting, building a team focused on strategic asset allocation and asset liability management services.

In June 2025, Kreibich was appointed Head of Institutional Clients, uniting Berenberg’s Institutional Sales and Investment Consulting functions on a centralised advisory platform.

Kreibich’s academic foundation includes a diploma in business administration from the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management, where he also qualified as a Chartered Financial Analyst and a Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst. Today, he lectures at his alma mater on portfolio management and strategic asset allocation, underscoring his commitment to knowledge-sharing and industry development.

BERENBERG INVESTMENT

CONSULTING

Since its launch in 2019, the Berenberg Investment Consulting team has been designing and implementing customised strategic asset allocation (SAA) and asset liability management (ALM) studies across the bank’s investment platform, which oversees approximately €40 billion in assets. Its clients include institutional investors, corporate pension funds, singlefamily offices, endowments, and ultra-high-networth individuals.

"Berenberg’s

The consulting team has continuously refined its in-house infrastructure to provide precise, datadriven strategic advice. Its platform allows for the rapid preparation of tailored studies that are highly valued by sophisticated investors.

DRIVEN BY INNOVATION

At the centre of this proposition lies the SAA & ALM Innovation Hub. This interactive dashboard enhances investor engagement by enabling realtime collaboration with senior consultants to test different investment strategies. Its back-end engine simulates asset and liability trajectories over a 40-year horizon, generating detailed projections of performance, risk, and balancesheet outcomes.

The platform is now supplemented by “flight path management,” a dynamic monitoring system that tracks investments and liabilities daily. This capability enables near-real-time ALM, adjusting portfolios in line with client-defined targets such as funding ratios. The system provides investors with the agility to respond swiftly to market shifts, helping mitigate risks and secure long-term goals.

MAXIMISING VALUE FOR INVESTORS

Berenberg Investment Consulting supports investors in defining optimal asset allocations aligned to their specific objectives. The team

considers expected returns, future cash flows, regulatory frameworks, and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) requirements while minimising risk exposure and ensuring long-term planning security.

Combining extensive financial expertise with advanced technological tools, Berenberg provides clients with the confidence to navigate complex financial landscapes and maximise the added value of their strategies.

A recent milestone was Berenberg’s appointment, together with Lurse Deutsche Pensions Treuhand GmbH, as full Outsourced Chief Investment Office (OCIO) for a German corporate with pension plan assets amounting to several hundred million euros within a German trust (CTA). The mandate reflects the confidence of institutional investors in Berenberg’s ability to deliver sophisticated, highimpact solutions.

TRADITION MEETS TRANSFORMATION

Berenberg’s heritage is rooted in banking tradition, but its trajectory is firmly future-focused. Through its innovation hub, flight path management, and expanding institutional advisory platform, the bank demonstrates how a centuries-old institution can adapt and thrive in today’s evolving financial landscape. i

heritage is rooted in banking tradition, but its trajectory is firmly future-focused."

> Blended Finance’s Second Act: The OECD Renews Guidance to Effectively Align Development Goals and Investment Returns

A

decade after blended finance entered the global lexicon, the challenges it was meant to address have multiplied – and so has its relevance. Public budgets are tightening, debt levels are climbing, and political priorities are shifting inward. In this context, several donors have announced cuts in the budgets allocated to official development assistance (ODA), including France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States. After reaching a peak of USD 223 billion in 2023, the OECD projects a 9 to 17 percent drop in ODA in 2025. This comes on top of a 9 percent drop in 2024. The outlook beyond 2025 remains highly uncertain but the political context does not bode well.

Yet, financing needs across the developing world are greater than ever. From climate adaptation to energy access, from health system improvement to biodiversity protection, the financing gap to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is now estimated at more than USD 4 trillion annually. Moreover, governments in developing countries, grappling with mounting fiscal pressure and soaring debt service costs, are facing painful trade-offs –often at the expense of essential development spending.

In that context, blended finance can play a crucial, catalytic role, helping traditional cooperation deliver more for the SDGs. The main idea is to use development finance to lower the risk-return profile of investments in developing countries to facilitate the flow of commercial capital towards currently less investable sectors and regions. By expanding the investable universe, blended finance allows investors to pursue financial returns in high-impact projects in emerging markets that would otherwise remain out of reach.

In practice, blended finance can take many forms: concessional loans or guarantees that mitigate risk for private investors, first-loss tranches in structured collective investment vehicles (CIVs) that enhance the risk-return profile for private investors or technical assistance that makes projects bankable. The goal is not to subsidise private investors but to optimise the allocation of risk and return so that commercially viable investments can advance in sectors or markets that would otherwise remain underfinanced.

Large asset managers already recognise blended finance as an opportunity to gain exposure

By Paul Horrocks & Noémie Benfella

to high-impact, high-growth markets while managing risk: BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has co-designed – and invested in – several blended finance CIVs. JP Morgan, Allianz or Mirova are also leading private actors in this space. Moreover, the investment opportunity presented by developing countries from investors, particularly institutional, is at a high.

However, while volumes of private finance mobilised by development finance interventions have grown steadily, the current pace of mobilisation still falls well short of the scale needed to close the financing gap. Most private finance is mobilised by multilateral development banks (MDBs), highlighting how much room there is for bilateral actors to scale up their use of blended finance and deliver on their respective development commitments.

GLOBAL MOMENTUM, AGAINST THE ODDS

Paradoxically, as traditional aid models are put under pressure, recent global discussions and events show a strengthened commitment to deliver on a renewed development finance architecture.

Earlier this year, close to 60 Heads of State and Government gathered in Sevilla for the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development (FFD4) – happening once every ten years, the last edition of the event had produced the Addis Ababa Action Agenda. Although it took place on a challenging backdrop for development, the Conference gathered more than 15,000 attendees and succeeded in turning concern into revived determination to reshape the development finance architecture – including through effective private finance mobilisation and more focused blending efforts. The international conversation seems to

have entered a new phase: one centred less on whether blended finance should be used, and more on how to use it well.

This sense of renewal is expected to carry through to COP30 in Belém, where the Bakuto-Belém Roadmap will be presented. The roadmap calls on “all actors to work together to enable the scaling up of financing to developing country Parties for climate action from all public and private sources to at least USD 1.3tn per year by 2035." Effective private finance mobilisation by development finance providers – bilateral providers especially – is essential if leaders want to maintain credibility in their climate diplomacy. It should not only be about setting goals but also about engineering the financial mechanisms needed to reach them.

INSTITUTIONAL INVESTING SDGS

A Joint Discussion Paper from MSCI

Meggin Thwing Eastman, Paul Horrocks,

December 2018

THE OECD’S PUSH TO MOVE FROM RENEWED AMBITION TO CONCRETE ACTION

Through its Development Assistance Committee (DAC) and Community of Practice on Private Finance for Sustainable Development (CoPPF4SD), the OECD sets standards and provides practical guidance on how to measure mobilisation, structure blended finance transactions and assess their development impact.

On 22 September, OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann launched the OECD DAC Blended Finance Guidance 2025, an update of the initial Guidance published five years ago. The document offers both strategic advice and practical insights for policymakers and practitioners seeking to use blended finance more effectively. It takes stock of the evolution of the blended finance ecosystem, draws on lessons learned and numerous stakeholders’ feedback. As Mary-Beth Goodman, OECD

Deputy Secretary-General, put it, “the OECD DAC Blended Finance Principles have become a go-to reference internationally and have contributed to ensuring high quality in blended finance. Updating the Guidance ensures that it remains fit for purpose both for policy makers and for practitioners in blended finance.”

To mobilise private finance at scale, the Guidance puts forward several instruments and approaches that we now know emphasise the efficiency, simplicity, speed, cost and volume that institutional investors such as pension funds and insurance companies require:

• Securitisation, which can scale mobilisation by transforming a diversified pool of assets into securities with credit ratings that meet a range of investors’ risk-return preferences.

• Guarantees (particularly unfunded), which have proven an effective instrument to mobilise private finance at scale by sharing risks with limited use of development finance.

• Structured funds (2- and 3-tier), which have been identified as an effective instrument that can be standardised and replicated to scale mobilisation.

• Green, social, sustainable and sustainabilitylinked (GSSS) bonds, which have proven to be a powerful tool to drive financing at scale towards green or social projects, or to incentivise sustainability outcomes.

The 2025 Guidance includes case studies on the instruments listed above but also on other thematic areas such as local currency finance, enabling environments, and transparency. Those are explicitly designed so that policymakers can replicate effective designs rather than reinvent from scratch.

Making blended finance work at scale is not only a technical challenge – it is a political one. Delivering on global commitments for climate and development will require donor governments to back their words with strategic risk-taking, institutional alignment and measurable

accountability. The OECD’s renewed guidance provides the tools, it is now up to political leaders to use them – turning fiscal constraint into financial innovation, and ambition into lasting impact. i

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Paul Horrocks is Head of the Private Finance for Sustainable Development Unit at the OECD Development Co-operation Directorate. Paul is leading work on policies aiming at encouraging greater private sector investment into developing countries, in particular mobilisation approaches, such as blended finance, that governments can adopt in order to reach scale and development impact.

Paul has extensive senior experience in leadership positions having been a Senior Executive at the Australian Federal Treasury, working on the domestic infrastructure market as well as providing policy advice during Australia’s G20 presidency on international policy challenges. Senior experience in the European Institutions in Brussels, having worked on such key initiatives such as the deepening of European capital markets in response to the 2008 financial crisis.

Paul has degrees from the University of Swansea and of Liverpool as well as an Executive MBA from Vlerick Business School in Belgium. He also provides executive teaching at the Oxford University and the Maastricht School of Management.

Noémie Benfella is a Junior Policy Analyst within the Private Finance for Sustainable Development Unit at the OECD Development Co-operation Directorate. Noémie contributes to development finance research aiming to bridge the gap between policy and action – including through the promotion of effective blended finance mechanisms.

Prior to joining the OECD, Noémie worked for France’s public sector within the French Ministry for the Ecological Transition and France’s public financial institution Caisse des Dépôts. She also has experience working for the United Nations on the Sustainable Development Goals and the 2030 Agenda.

Noémie has a master’s degree in international development from Sciences Po Paris’ School of International Affairs.

> Technology with a Human Touch: SegurCaixa Adeslas Reinforces Its Market Leadership through Innovation

SegurCaixa Adeslas strengthens its market dominance in Spain through a forward-looking strategy centred on digitalisation, artificial intelligence, and customer-focused prevention.

In an era of rapid digital transformation, companies that successfully adapt their services to the shifting needs of society are those that deepen client trust and remain relevant. SegurCaixa Adeslas, a leading Spanish health insurer, has positioned itself at the forefront of this evolution by placing innovation, technology, and preventive care at the core of its service model.

For SegurCaixa Adeslas, digital transformation is more than a technological shift — it is a strategic commitment to improving quality, responsiveness, and access. The company is determined to anticipate client needs and offer insurance products and services that are fast, intuitive, and tailored. In doing so, it strengthens customer loyalty while enhancing everyday usability across its healthcare ecosystem.

These advances are not confined to the customerfacing side of the business. Internally, SegurCaixa Adeslas has empowered its employees with new tools and platforms that foster collaboration, streamline operations, and drive productivity. The result is a more agile, efficient, and responsive organisational culture.

Artificial intelligence plays a key role in this transformation. The company has introduced generative AI tools that assist customer service advisors in resolving complex queries in seconds. Previously, retrieving information on detailed coverage or procedures could take up to half a minute. Now, with the support of AI, advisors access structured answers almost instantly, improving both speed and accuracy.

This same data-driven approach informs product development. By expanding its analytics capabilities, SegurCaixa Adeslas can automate routine processes while designing smarter, more personalised insurance coverage. These data models anticipate future scenarios and allow policies to adapt to each client's evolving needs.

Digitalisation remains a cornerstone of the insurer’s strategic roadmap. The company’s user-centric digital services platform now serves more than 1.8 million registered users, offering a single point of access to an array of healthcare tools. Clients can search for nearby specialists, store preferred contacts, schedule appointments,

and consult medical professionals via video or telephone — all from one seamless interface.

Prevention has also been redefined through digital innovation. Clients are now offered personalised health programmes tailored to their physical and lifestyle needs. These include on-demand video tutorials for postural health, muscle toning, cardiovascular training, Pilates, yoga, and more. From beginners to seasoned fitness enthusiasts, the platform delivers accessible and engaging content that supports long-term wellbeing.

For those with chronic conditions, SegurCaixa Adeslas has developed an integrated care model that provides personalised support. This approach was recently extended with the launch of a dedicated programme for individuals living with osteoarthritis — demonstrating the insurer’s commitment to providing targeted, meaningful care solutions.

Health promotion is further supported by a strong editorial and public engagement platform.

The company publishes a medically accredited blog and sponsors Sin Cita Previa, a podcast focused on family and women’s health that has already reached over 650,000 listens — further reinforcing the insurer’s visibility and impact in the public sphere.

These efforts continue to translate into clear market leadership. With more than 30 percent market share in Spain’s health insurance sector, SegurCaixa Adeslas outpaces its two nearest rivals combined. Its growth is not driven by price or scale alone, but by a consistent focus on quality, accessibility, and technological relevance.

In combining artificial intelligence, advanced analytics, and prevention strategies with a deeply human approach to service, SegurCaixa Adeslas is setting new standards in the industry. As client expectations evolve, the insurer remains committed to offering not just digital solutions, but trustworthy, efficient care — at scale, and on demand. i

Are the Cut-Price Carriers the Right Route to Industry Rrofitability?

The no-frills revolution unlocked mass demand and forced efficiencies across aviation. But as the model matures, a sharper question emerges: is ultra-lean the definitive blueprint for stable, long-term profitability—or does it depress fares and compress margins for everyone?

Since their emergence in deregulated markets in the United States and Europe, low-cost carriers (LCCs)—and their even leaner cousins, ultra-lowcost carriers (ULCCs)—have been the most disruptive force in modern aviation. The formula is familiar: stripped-back service, high aircraft utilisation, single-type fleets, pointto-point networks and ruthless cost control. This approach challenged the hub-and-spoke dominance of full-service carriers (FSCs) and, for a long stretch, looked like the unambiguous path to superior returns.

For years, aggregated studies suggested LCCs delivered higher returns on invested capital than legacy rivals. Their discipline on cost, paired with a sophisticated ancillary revenue engine—bags, seat selection, priority boarding and more— unlocked profit from consumers previously priced out of flying. By stimulating latent demand with low base fares and monetising optional extras, LCCs grew the market and filled seats at efficiencies network carriers struggled to match. The underpinnings are compelling: single-type fleets shrink maintenance and training costs; secondary airports cut charges and congestion; direct online sales sidestep global distribution fees. In Europe, Ryanair and easyJet proved the model at scale.

Yet the notion that the LCC template represents the only route to sustainable, industry-wide profitability is less convincing today. Aviation is not a monolith, and the success of the low-fare model has forced a competitive response that narrows its advantage while reshaping returns across the system.

THE FULL-SERVICE COUNTER-MOVE

Confronted by LCC encroachment, network airlines executed a strategic pivot. They absorbed key low-cost tactics—basic-economy fare classes, tighter fare families, aggressive ancillary pricing—while doubling down on differentiated strengths: long-haul connectivity, alliance breadth and premium cabins. The result is a more segmented market. Legacy carriers can now meet price-sensitive leisure demand with

"Aviation is not a monolith, and the success of the lowfare model has forced a competitive response that narrows its advantage while reshaping returns across the system."

pared-back products, yet protect yield where their networks and schedules matter most to corporates and premium leisure.

This adaptation has paid dividends, particularly in mature markets such as North America. Having stripped out some “legacy” costs, mined ancillary revenue and invested in reliability, Wi-Fi and cabin upgrades, several network airlines have posted ROIC that rivals—or at times surpasses—parts of the low-cost sector. The premise is straightforward: consumers like cheap fares, but many will pay modestly more for punctuality, connectivity and comfort when the price gap narrows.

WHERE THE LOW-COST EDGE IS ERODING

Some of the very advantages that powered the LCC ascent are now pressure points, especially for ULCCs. Labour markets are tighter, with unions exerting greater leverage and pilot/engineer shortages lifting wage floors. Infrastructure is scarcer: growth increasingly requires access to slot-constrained primary airports, raising fees and reducing operational freedom. Fuel volatility remains unforgiving; while many LCCs fly efficient narrowbodies, ultra-lean margins are inherently exposed to swings in jet fuel. And customer expectations are shifting. Ancillary revenue is vital, but perceived “drip pricing” can corrode trust; overreach risks brand damage and churn to the next cheapest offer.

Revenue Science, Retailing and the Loyalty Gap

As cost gaps narrow, profitability hinges on retail sophistication. LCCs pioneered direct distribution; the next frontier is personalisation at

scale—dynamic bundles that balance willingness to pay with clarity, rather than static menus that trigger fee fatigue. Network carriers are closing the digital gap through modern retailing standards and richer product displays, bringing parity in how fares and attributes are surfaced.

Loyalty remains a differential. FSC programmes monetise beyond the seat through co-brand cards and corporate contracts, cushioning cycles and subsidising premium cabins. LCCs are experimenting with lighter schemes and subscriptions—fast-track, seat-selection bundles, or limited “all-you-can-fly” passes— but the economics are thinner without a mature credit ecosystem. The winners in both camps will treat the aircraft as a retail platform— onboard payments, pre-order F&B, destination partnerships—rather than a pure seat factory.

CAPITAL, CYCLES AND SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS

Aviation’s capital intensity and cyclicality impose hard limits. Delivery delays, engine shop bottlenecks and tight leasing markets now shape growth more than marketing plans. For LCCs, delayed aircraft dent unit costs and slow new-market entry; for FSCs, wide-body scarcity supports long-haul pricing power. Higher interest rates raise break-even load factors and extend payback periods on fleet renewals; saleand-leaseback remains useful for LCCs, but rising lease yields can inject earnings volatility. Balance-sheet discipline—capacity growth in line with cash generation, hedging that protects but doesn’t speculate, and liquidity buffers— separates durable models from fair-weather performers.

THE SUSTAINABILITY EQUATION

Environmental policy has migrated from reputation to regulation. Emissions trading, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) mandates and noise/slot constraints are tightening. On a perseat-kilometre basis, LCCs often look good—high load factors, young single-aisle fleets—but SAF premia will lift unit costs industry-wide. Network

carriers may secure supply on better terms via corporate demand and premium pricing; lowfare operators must preserve their price promise while absorbing compliance costs. Operational measures—continuous-descent approaches, weight reduction, single-engine taxi—are now table stakes; true advantage will accrue to carriers that combine efficient fleets with credible, auditable decarbonisation pathways.

GEOGRAPHY MATTERS

Structure varies by region. Europe’s dense short-haul demand and liberal skies favour LCC economics; secondary airports and short stage lengths align with point-to-point efficiency. In North America, retooled networks and powerful loyalty ecosystems raise the bar for ULCCs, which face slot constraints and less pricing power. Asia presents mixed results for low-cost longhaul: narrowbody range extensions (A321XLR, 737-10) create new leisure pairings, but fuel sensitivity and utilisation risk remain acute on longer sectors. Latin America offers upside where liberalisation advances, though macro volatility and infrastructure gaps test even the leanest operators.

Consolidation, Competition and Consumer Trust

The competitive map will keep shifting. Consolidation can stabilise yields and reduce duplication, but regulators remain wary of concentration—especially at slot-constrained airports. For consumers, transparency is ascendant: clear total-trip pricing and honest ancillaries are becoming as important as headline fares. Airlines that communicate value—reliability, convenience, sustainability credentials—will earn pricing latitude; those that obfuscate will invite regulatory and reputational pushback.

A NEW EQUILIBRIUM

The sector is converging on balance rather than a single winning archetype. The low-cost model remains a formidable profit engine on short-haul, leisure-heavy, point-to-point routes—provided

operators preserve a structural cost gap and operational excellence. The network model, retooled and disciplined, captures premium and long-haul demand that values connectivity, loyalty ecosystems and schedule depth. Both can prosper—when executed with clarity of proposition and rigorous cost management.

Crucially, LCCs have catalysed a more efficient industry, compressing real-terms fares and forcing legacy peers to modernise. They have been instrumental in aviation’s return to profit cycles after past crises. But durable, aggregate profitability will not come from homogenising the industry into a single template. It will be delivered

by intelligent segmentation: airlines leaning into what they do best, managing their unique cost bases aggressively and offering products that are transparently priced and clearly differentiated.

For investors, the filters are consistent: cost per available seat kilometre relative to peers; discipline in capacity growth; resilience to fuel and labour shocks; retail sophistication; and credible sustainability roadmaps. For policymakers, the lesson is to preserve competitive intensity—slots, infrastructure, consumer transparency—while pushing decarbonisation in ways that reward genuine efficiency rather than entrench incumbency. i

The Gold Standard of No-Frills: How Ryanair Mastered the Cost Game

Ryanair’s journey from regional operator to Europe’s dominant budget airline is a case study in unflinching cost leadership. Founded in 1984, the carrier found its stride in the early 1990s by adopting the Southwest playbook with uncommon ferocity—and then pushing it further.

The strategy is singular: be the lowest-cost producer of short-haul air travel in Europe. Everything else is subordinate to that goal. Fleet standardisation around the Boeing 737 simplifies maintenance, slashes spares inventories and streamlines pilot training, lifting productivity across operations. On the ground, rapid turnarounds—targeted at roughly 25 minutes—keep aircraft flying more hours per day, spreading fixed ownership costs over more revenue sectors.

Airport choice is strategic leverage. Favouring smaller, less congested secondary bases lowers landing charges and reduces delay risk, while giving the airline bargaining power to negotiate incentives that incumbents cannot match.

Inside the cabin, high-density seating and the elimination of non-essential frills translate into more sellable seats and lower unit cost, while selfservice processes—from check-in to boarding— strip labour out of routine touchpoints.

Revenue architecture completes the picture. Low headline fares stimulate demand and fill the aircraft; profitability flows from disciplined ancillary monetisation: bags, seating, priority boarding, on-board sales and a widening portfolio of optional services. The economics are deliberate: base fares are the acquisition tool; ancillaries are the margin engine.

This coherence—strategy, operations and revenue aligned around cost—has enabled Ryanair to outlast fare wars, scale through downturns and exploit recoveries faster than rivals. It redefined European short-haul economics and proved that a high-volume, low-margin model can deliver superior returns when cost discipline is culturally non-negotiable and operational execution is relentless.

> A Handbag’s World: How Hermès Handbags Became Blue-Chip Assets

Anew kind of currency has emerged in high finance—soft to the touch, exquisitely crafted and wrapped in mystique. The iconic Hermès handbags, notably the fabled Birkin and Kelly, have transcended mere accessory status to become an asset class in their own right. Powered by deliberate scarcity, peerless craftsmanship and a booming secondary market, these pieces have, for decades, rivalled—or outpaced—traditional benchmarks from the S&P 500 to gold. This is not simply fashion; it is a study in value creation.

THE FOUNDATION OF VALUE: CRAFTSMANSHIP AND SCARCITY

Hermès’s journey from a Parisian harness workshop in 1837 to a global luxury powerhouse rests on an unyielding commitment to quality. The house’s philosophy is disarmingly simple: never compromise on craft. Each Birkin and Kelly is hand-made by a single artisan, a process that can take 18 to more than 40 hours. New makers spend years in training before they are entrusted with a bag. This human-centred production model imposes natural limits on output and is integral to the product’s aura—and its price.

Scarcity is not incidental; it is strategy. Unlike rivals that scale to meet demand, Hermès does the opposite. The most coveted bags are never casually available. They are offered to clients with a demonstrated relationship and meaningful purchase history, stewarded by sales associates who act as gatekeepers to the brand’s rarest pieces. The informal “quota” system—limiting most clients to two quota bags per year— perpetually tilts demand over supply, preserving mystique and, crucially, price integrity.

THE RISE OF THE RESALE MARKET

Tight primary-market controls have seeded a sophisticated secondary market. For buyers with capital but not patience, resale offers immediacy—at a premium. What was once the preserve of discreet dealers is now a data-driven global ecosystem of online platforms, specialist auction houses and informed collectors.

Digital marketplaces such as Vestiaire Collective and The RealReal, alongside niche operators and the salerooms, have widened access while professionalising authentication and pricing. Transparency has accelerated growth: a classic Birkin 25 in Noir or Étoupe can command premia well above retail, with market values

"Scarcity is not incidental; it is strategy. Unlike rivals that scale to meet demand, Hermès does the opposite. The most coveted bags are never casually available."

tracked and shared in real time. Over the past decade, aggregated indices and auction records suggest annualised returns for select Hermès models in the low-to-mid teens—outperforming many conventional asset classes. The driver is not trend but permanence: the designs are canonical, the quality enduring.

WHAT MAKES A BAG A BLUE-CHIP ASSET?

Not every Birkin or Kelly is equal in the eyes of the market. A handful of variables determine whether a piece is merely valuable—or truly investment grade.

Rarity and Exclusivity. Scarce materials heighten appeal. Exotic leathers—Porosus or Niloticus crocodile, ostrich and alligator—are challenging to source and work, limiting production. At the apex sits the Himalaya Birkin, its painstaking gradient evoking alpine snow. With diamond hardware, examples have achieved record prices well north of £300,000 at auction.

Size and Colour. Shifts in lifestyle have favoured compact silhouettes: the Birkin 25 and Kelly 25 are highly sought-after. While seasonal shades have their moments, classic neutrals—Noir, Gold, Étoupe—consistently hold value, pairing effortlessly with wardrobes and outlasting trends.

Condition, Stamp and Provenance. Condition is paramount. “Store-fresh” pieces—unused, with plastics intact—achieve the highest multiples. The blind stamp (year code) can influence pricing, with newer pieces often trading at a premium, though rare vintage can buck the rule. Full provenance—original box, dust bags, rain cover, care booklet and receipt—bolsters value and confidence.

FAMOUS COLLECTORS AND THE MARKET’S DIRECTION

The client base is broadening. While ultra-high-

net-worth collectors dominate the trophy end, a new cohort of younger, globally connected buyers views these bags as both cultural artefacts and balance-sheet assets. High-profile owners— Victoria Beckham is rumoured to hold a threedigit Birkin collection; Singapore’s Jamie Chua and YouTuber Jeffree Star curate vault-like displays—add celebrity wattage that reinforces desirability and, by extension, liquidity.

Looking forward, the market’s infrastructure is maturing. Transparent pricing, richer data sets and third-party authentication standards are reducing information asymmetry. The sustainability lens is also relevant: pre-owned luxury is increasingly favoured as a low-waste, high-quality alternative to fast fashion. For diversified portfolios, the secondary market in Hermès bags offers a distinctive proposition: tangible assets with demonstrable resale demand, underpinned by a house that treats craft as doctrine and scarcity as policy.

RISK, LIQUIDITY AND PRACTICALITIES

No alternative asset is without caveats. Liquidity is episodic: the right piece can sell in hours; a less favoured size or colour can sit for months. Transaction costs matter—seller commissions at marketplaces and salerooms can range from the low teens to 30 percent—so underwriting a spread is essential. Currency swings can amplify or erode returns for cross-border buyers.

Condition risk is real. Storage should be climate-controlled, with bags kept stuffed and

away from light to prevent creasing and colour fade. Insurance (often under valuable articles schedules) adds cost but protects capital. Counterfeits are increasingly sophisticated; buyers should insist on multi-point authentication (stitch count, font, hardware, leather grain, odour profile), preferably with a reputable third-party certificate and a robust return policy.

Regulation adds complexity at the high end. CITES documentation is mandatory for crossborder movement of exotics; incomplete papers can impair resale or invite seizure. Ethical considerations are moving up the agenda: some investors now screen for non-exotic leathers (e.g., Togo, Epsom, Clemence) to widen the buyer pool and sidestep regulatory friction.

BUILDING A COLLECTION STRATEGY

Treat acquisition as portfolio construction. Anchor with core, highly liquid SKUs—Birkin 25/30 and Kelly 25/28 in Noir, Gold or Étoupe with palladium hardware—then layer selective seasonals or rare leathers. Time-inmarket generally beats timing-the-market: hold periods of three to seven years have historically captured step-ups tied to retail price rises, brand momentum and macro liquidity cycles. Diversify exit routes—trusted dealers for speed, auctions for theatre and peaks, peer-to-peer platforms for fee control.

Finally, correlations are attractive but not zero. Luxury resale values can soften in recessions or when global liquidity tightens; conversely,

scarcity-led brands like Hermès have often proved resilient versus logo-heavy peers. The hedge, as ever, is quality: canonical models, impeccable condition, impeccable paperwork.

The conclusion is counter-intuitive only to those who view handbags as ephemera. In a world awash with mass production and copy-paste branding,

Hermès has engineered a textbook case of value creation: timeless design, uncompromising manufacture and disciplined supply. The result is an object that signals taste, stores value and— properly selected—compounds it. Trends come and go. The Birkin and Kelly endure, functioning not only as emblems of luxury but, increasingly, as blue-chip assets in their own right. i

From Air-Sickness Bag to Icon: The Serendipitous Birth of the Birkin

The Birkin’s origin story is a masterclass in chance meeting design. It captures Hermès’s human-centred philosophy: objects of desire shaped by real lives and practical needs.

In 1983, British actress and singer Jane Birkin—celebrated for her effortless, bohemian style—boarded an Air France flight from Paris to London. Struggling to stow her wicker basket in the overhead bin, she watched its contents— papers, a diary and a baby bottle—spill into the aisle and onto the lap of the man beside her. Exasperated, she remarked that it was impossible to find a weekend bag both elegant and genuinely useful for a young mother.

Her neighbour, courteous and curious, was JeanLouis Dumas, then chairman of Hermès. Rather than offer platitudes, he posed a challenge: what would the perfect bag look like? Birkin sketched

her answer on the back of an air-sickness bag—an unpretentious canvas for an enduring idea. She envisioned a supple, capacious tote with a clean, classic line, a protective flap and a discreet lock; larger than the Kelly yet smaller than a travel case, robust enough for daily life and refined enough for the front row.

A year later, in 1984, Dumas presented Birkin with a prototype in black leather and pledged to name the design in her honour. She accepted; an icon was born. That the silhouette has remained virtually unchanged since speaks to the clarity of the original brief: beauty anchored in function, craftsmanship serving real use. From a hurried sketch at 30,000 feet to the most coveted bag in the world, the Birkin endures as proof that great design often begins with a simple, human problem—and a willingness to listen.

A Shelf Life Built to Expire

From smartphones to socks, disposability feels baked into daily life. Is that a flaw in the system—or a foundational feature of modern capitalism?

In an era of frictionless apps and abundant choice, a quiet force dictates how long almost everything lasts. The fridge that grows noisier the week its warranty lapses; the handset that slows after two software updates as the battery fades; the trousers whose knees yield before their time. This is not mere happenstance. It is design principle and business model: planned obsolescence. For close to a century it has shaped buying habits, production decisions and, by extension, the wider economy.

The early history reads like conspiracy. In the 1920s the Phoebus cartel—Osram, Philips, General Electric and others—standardised bulb life around 1,000 hours, down from more than 2,500. Rather than competing to extend durability, manufacturers colluded to sell a cycle of replacement. Innovation was curbed in favour of predictable revenue—an industry privileging its own interests over the consumer’s.

Today the story is more nuanced and pervasive. Planned obsolescence is less a secret pact than a logic embedded in product strategy, marketing and macroeconomics. It typically manifests in three overlapping forms: technological, stylistic and psychological.

Technological obsolescence is the straightforward march from inferior to superior performance. VHS yields to DVD; landlines to mobiles; spinning disks to solid state. Sometimes this is genuine progress. Within it sits a subtler variant: functional obsolescence, where design choices limit repair or upgrade, nudging replacement. Sealed electronics, glued batteries and proprietary screws turn a worn cell into a dead device. Early iPods, whose batteries were notoriously difficult to swap, became emblematic; for many users, “repair” meant “replace”.

Stylistic obsolescence is softer power. Fashion has long traded on cycles; fast fashion compressed them into weeks. Seasonal churn reframes last month as passé. The phenomenon extends far beyond apparel. Annual phone refreshes tout marginal camera bumps, new lens arrangements or fresh colours. The older model still works— what changes is the social signal. Newness itself becomes utility.

Psychological (perceived) obsolescence targets the consumer, not the product. Advertising reframes adequacy as inadequacy, selling not only

"Businesses are discovering that durability can differentiate. Customer lifetime value is not only about higher frequency; it can also be about deeper loyalty."

objects but identities and anxieties. A serviceable laptop feels suddenly “underpowered” in the glow of a campaign; a perfectly fine kitchen looks tired beside an influencer’s remodel. The treadmill is mental as much as material.

Economically, the case for obsolescence has a post-war pedigree. Advocates such as industrial designer Brooks Stevens argued that “planned” or “dynamic” obsolescence sustains demand, supports jobs and keeps capital turning—an antidote to overproduction and stagnation. Regular refresh cycles smooth factory utilisation and embed growth. From a macro lens, the machine hums.

But the bill has arrived. The most immediate cost lands on household balance sheets. Consumers are steered into avoidable replacement, paying for novelty they often do not need. That compounds indebtedness and financial precarity. More serious still is the environmental charge. We live amid waste: phones, laptops and chargers consigned to drawers and dumps; garments worn a handful of times before the bin. E-waste is particularly toxic—heavy metals and brominated compounds leach into soil and water—while the extraction of rare earths, cobalt and lithium carries intense ecological and human harms. Textile waste now fills landfills and incinerators; cotton and polyester production strain water and energy systems. The carbon embedded in manufacturing, warehousing and logistics adds to the atmospheric ledger.

The social toll is hidden in global supply chains. The people who mine, assemble and ultimately process our discards bear outsized risks: artisanal miners in unstable regions; factory workers in precarious conditions; informal recyclers exposed to hazardous materials. Investigative films such as The Lightbulb Conspiracy and critiques like Vance Packard’s The Waste Makers have long documented this underside of abundance.

Is there a way out? Not via a single fix, but through a shift in consumer expectations, corporate incentives and regulatory frameworks.

Consumers are already pushing back. A repair culture—once quaint—has re-emerged as a movement. Community workshops, independent technicians and online tutorials demystify fixes that manufacturers once walled off. Demand is growing for products designed with replaceable parts, standard fasteners and published schematics. Brands that commit to longevity earn trust: Patagonia’s “repair, don’t replace” stance is a business model as much as a manifesto, backed by guarantees and a global repair operation. Secondary markets—from refurbished electronics to premium resale platforms—extend lifespans and normalise “new-to-you”.

Businesses are discovering that durability can differentiate. Customer lifetime value is not only about higher frequency; it can also be about deeper loyalty. Designing for disassembly, modular upgrades and parts availability opens the door to profitable services—maintenance, refurbishment, certified resale. The circular economy reframes value creation: materials loop, waste shrinks, and revenue mixes shift from units sold to utilisation and service. Leasing or “product-as-a-service” models align incentives: when the manufacturer retains ownership, longevity and repairability protect margins. It is not universally applicable, but in appliances, office equipment and mobility it is already gaining traction.

Policy is pivotal. “Right to repair” legislation is advancing in the UK and EU, obliging makers of certain appliances and electronics to keep spares, tools and manuals available for years after sale. France’s repairability index, displayed at point of purchase, arms consumers with a simple metric and pressures brands to improve design scores. Extended Producer Responsibility

schemes, which make manufacturers financially responsible for end-of-life management, can accelerate investment in take-back, recycling and eco-design. Standards on software support— mandating security and performance updates for a defined period—combat digital obsolescence dressed as “progress”.

None of this demands a retreat from innovation. It requires a different ambition: progress that compounds rather than discards, software that extends hardware rather than stranding it, aesthetics that value timelessness alongside trend. Industrial design has always balanced form, function and feeling; incorporating repairability and longevity simply adds another constraint—one increasingly prized by customers and regulators alike.

For executives, the strategic question is blunt. Is your P&L addicted to churn, or can you build a brand on trust? The former may flatter quarterly numbers but corrodes equity and invites regulation. The latter demands patience— investing in design quality, service networks and transparent communications—but yields resilience. In downturns, durable brands suffer less; in upturns, they capture premium pricing and advocacy. There is competitive advantage in being the product people keep.

For investors, the signal is growing clearer. Metrics of durability, reparability and material circularity are becoming decision inputs, not CSR footnotes. As carbon pricing expands and waste compliance tightens, the externalities of disposability land on cash flows. Businesses aligned with a circular transition will face lower regulatory risk, more stable margins and stronger customer attachment.

Ultimately, planned obsolescence is not an immutable law; it is a set of choices disguised as inevitability. We can choose standards that favour repair, tax regimes that reward material efficiency,

and procurement policies that privilege longevity. We can choose to value the quiet satisfaction of a well-maintained tool over the dopamine hit of the unboxing. The most radical act in a consumer society may be continuity: to use, care for and repair something long enough that it becomes part of our lives rather than a placeholder for the next thing.

A system designed for expiry can be redesigned. The linear mantra—take, make, use, dispose— need not be destiny. Reduce, reuse, repair, recycle is not a slogan so much as an operating model. And sometimes the most elegant upgrade is not a new purchase at all, but a screwdriver, a spare part and the decision to keep what already works. i

The Bulb that Refused to Die

In a throwaway world, one lightbulb burns on— its glow illuminating the origins of planned obsolescence.

In a quiet corner of Livermore, California, a single, unassuming bulb has glowed—save for brief interruptions—since 1901. The “Centennial Light”, a carbon-filament lamp made at the dawn of electrification, is now the world’s longest-lasting. Its soft amber halo is more than a curiosity; it is a living artefact from an era when durability was a design goal, not a marketing problem.

How we travelled from bulbs measured in decades to ones that fail after a year or two is among the starkest case studies in engineered impermanence. The culprit was not physics but policy—industry policy. In 1925, the world’s dominant lamp makers, including Osram, Philips and General Electric, formed the Phoebus cartel. Their brief was simple and chillingly modern: standardise the life of an incandescent bulb at roughly 1,000 hours.

Engineers then could already build lamps that ran for several thousand hours. Longevity, however, threatened volumes. By capping life, the cartel converted a mature technology into a recurring-

revenue stream. They did not merely sell light; they monetised the need for replacements. The result was a coordinated retreat from durability, backed by testing laboratories that penalised over-performance as surely as underperformance. Innovation was redirected—from making things last to making them last justlong enough.

Phoebus cast a long shadow. For decades, the 1,000-hour norm shaped consumer expectations and production lines alike, turning a oncedurable household staple into a consumable. In that context, the Centennial Light feels almost subversive: a stubborn, low-watt reminder that longevity is not a fantasy, but a choice.

Its continued glow is a quiet rebuke to a business model that equates progress with churn. It embodies a different commercial ethic—one in which craftsmanship, materials and design are marshalled to extend life rather than to schedule its end. In a century that perfected the art of the upgrade, a humble lamp in a Californian fire station offers a counter-narrative: that value can also be created by building things to endure— and that the brightest ideas sometimes shine longest when we resist the urge to make them fail.

Level Up: How the Gaming Industry Conquered Entertainment

Once a niche pursuit for a handful of enthusiasts, gaming has exploded into a global phenomenon—now eclipsing film and music in both revenue and cultural reach. How did an industry built on pixels and joysticks become a multi-billion-pound powerhouse shaping technology, culture and business? This is the story of gaming’s extraordinary rise.

ORIGINS: OSCILLOSCOPES AND SPACEWAR

In 1958, at a Brookhaven National Laboratory open day, physicist William Higinbotham unveiled Tennis for Two, a simple diversion played on an oscilloscope. A few years later, MIT students created Spacewar!, a more ambitious experiment that introduced interactivity to the digital age. These early curiosities, tethered to university labs, hardly suggested a future rival to Hollywood. Yet the seed was planted: games could be active, not passive—requiring skill, memory and persistence, and delivering that unmistakeable loop of challenge and reward.

ARCADES: COMMERCIAL BREAKTHROUGH

The first commercial inflection arrived in the 1970s. Atari, founded by Nolan Bushnell and Ted Dabney, moved video games from labs to leisure with Pong—an instantly readable, compulsively replayable game. Arcades became social hubs, their bleeps and bloops providing the soundtrack to a new urban ritual. Space Invaders and PacMan followed, creating characters, sounds and score-chasing thrills recognised across the world. Games were no longer curios; they were culture.

LIVING-ROOM REVOLUTION—AND COLLAPSE

The revolution travelled home with consoles such as the Magnavox Odyssey and, decisively, the Atari 2600. Interchangeable cartridges and a new retail model introduced variety—and excess. As low-quality shovelware clogged the shelves, trust evaporated. The nadir was E.T. the ExtraTerrestrial, a notorious misfire symbolising the 1983 crash. The lesson was clear: unregulated growth and weak quality control can fell even a new medium.

NINTENDO’S RESET: QUALITY AS STRATEGY

Nintendo’s 1985 launch of the NES, paired with SuperMarioBros., restored confidence and redefined the industry. Strict licensing, capped release slates and a seal of quality brought discipline to a chaotic market. The NES was more than hardware: it offered coherent worlds, tight mechanics and mass-market charm. Mario

"Expect continued convergence. AI will accelerate content creation—procedural worlds, smarter NPCs, personalised difficulty— while demanding thoughtful guardrails."

and Link achieved true cross-media fame, and family rooms became shared stages for interactive stories.

THE 1990S: CONSOLE WARS AND CINEMATIC

AMBITION

Competition sharpened innovation. Nintendo’s SNES and Sega’s Mega Drive (Genesis) fought a transatlantic duel that produced advances in graphics, sound and game design. Sony’s 1994 PlayStation shifted the paradigm again. The CDROM’s capacity enabled full-motion cut-scenes, orchestral scores and 3D worlds. Final Fantasy VII and Metal Gear Solid presented cinematic, adult-oriented narratives; gaming’s audience broadened from adolescents to a mainstream, multi-generational public.

BROADBAND AND THE SOCIAL GRAPH

The 2000s brought the internet into the core experience. PC titles like Quake and EverQuest pioneered online play; Microsoft’s 2001 Xbox— and, crucially, Xbox Live—normalised plug-andplay online on consoles. Suddenly, play was also presence: voice chat, clans, rankings and global competition stitched social fabric through gameplay loops. Games became places— persistent communities rather than isolated products.

PC RENAISSANCE AND DIGITAL DISTRIBUTION

PC gaming surged on the back of affordable GPUs and a decisive distribution innovation: Valve’s Steam (2003). Digital storefronts solved shelf space and patching, gave developers direct access to global audiences, and turned telemetry into product strategy. Indie development flourished. Minecraft, born from a single developer’s sandbox, became a generational phenomenon—proof that novel mechanics and player-authored creativity could outmuscle marketing budgets.

MOBILITY

AND THE NEW MASS MARKET

The smartphone era placed a capable gaming device in billions of pockets. Touch-first titles such as Angry Birds and Candy Crush Saga reached players far beyond the core, demolishing the stereotype of the gamer as a teenage boy in a darkened room. Free-to-play economics, underpinned by micro-transactions and live events, reframed success around retention, cadence and lifetime value rather than one-off box sales.

GAMES AS A SERVICE: THE PERPETUAL RELEASE

The 2010s entrenched the “live service” model. Fortnite and Grand Theft Auto V became platforms—continually updated worlds that monetise through cosmetics, battle passes and expansions. The commercial logic is elegant: align incentives so that better content,

stronger communities and frequent updates create recurring revenue. The creative payoff is equally clear: developers can respond to player behaviour in near real time, while players coauthor the experience through mods, usergenerated content and social sharing.

A COLOSSUS OF CULTURE AND TECHNOLOGY

Today, gaming dwarfs film and recorded music combined by revenue and equals them in cultural force. It drives advances in graphics processing, streaming, AI pathfinding and networking. Esports fills arenas, attracts bluechip sponsors and commands broadcast rights. Professional players sign seven-figure deals; teams operate as media brands; tournaments draw global audiences across platforms. Meanwhile, transmedia flows both ways: games inspire film and TV (from The Last of Us to Arcane), while writers, actors and composers from Hollywood are enlisted to build richer interactive worlds.

HARDWARE WITHOUT THE HARDWARE

Cloud gaming—via services such as Xbox Cloud Gaming and GeForce NOW—promises high-end experiences on modest devices, decoupling content from local silicon. If latency, catalogue breadth and pricing continue to improve, the addressable market expands again, lowering barriers to premium play. Subscription models are maturing, with libraries spanning indie

darlings to day-one blockbusters; discovery algorithms and curation are becoming as critical as frame rates.

VR, AR AND THE NEXT INTERFACES

Virtual and augmented reality remain in a formative phase, yet their trajectory is set by gaming’s restless demand for immersion. Haptics, eye-tracking, inside-out mapping and mixed-reality toolkits are inching the medium towards natural presence. Even short of full adoption, the R&D spills over: spatial audio, foveated rendering and scene understanding will benefit mainstream games and adjacent industries from design to digital twins.

ECONOMICS, REGULATION AND RESPONSIBILITY

Maturity attracts scrutiny. Loot boxes, data privacy, player safety and labour conditions have moved centre stage. Regulators are probing monetisation practices; studios face expectations on accessibility, inclusion and healthy play. The sector’s answer has been mixed but improving: parental controls by default, regional compliance for under-18s, clearer disclosures, and workplace reforms including remote pipelines and crediting standards. With scale comes stewardship.

THE METAVERSE—BY

ANOTHER NAME

Whether or not the term endures, games already deliver the metaverse’s working parts:

persistent identity, synchronous presence, user economies and interoperable tools. The most durable universes prioritise creation over consumption—platforms where players make, trade and perform. The implication for business is profound: communities are moats, and the most valuable IP may be the frameworks that let communities build.

WHAT COMES NEXT

Expect continued convergence. AI will accelerate content creation—procedural worlds, smarter NPCs, personalised difficulty—while demanding thoughtful guardrails. Cross-play and cross-progression will be table stakes. Middleware and creator suites will lower production barriers further, widening the funnel for new voices and geographies. And as cloud and mobile stitch the market together, the distinction between “core” and “casual” will matter less than the quality of the loop and the strength of the community.

From an oscilloscope experiment to stadiumfilling esports and cloud-delivered epics, gaming’s ascent is a masterclass in innovation, resilience and understanding human motivation. It reshaped how stories are told, how communities form and how technology evolves. What began as blips and paddles has become the world’s most potent entertainment medium—an industry still levelling up. i

The Golden Century: Why the USA and Sweden Offer the Perfect Model for a Well-Run Economy

Defining the “best” economy is not about headline GDP; it is about resilience, efficiency and—crucially—the ability to translate wealth into sustained, high-quality living for the many. Over the past hundred years, no country has run the table. Two, however, offer complementary masterclasses: America’s innovation-first engine and Sweden’s stabilising, equitable model.

Asingle, definitive winner is tempting— and misleading. If the yardstick were sheer scale and output, the United States would prevail on continuity alone, holding the world’s largest economy for well over a century. Yet a truly “well-run” system must balance dynamism with stability and inclusivity. High GDP is a hollow triumph if gains are narrowly held or repeatedly wiped out by preventable crises.

A fair assessment therefore rests on two intertwined tests. First, macroeconomic performance: sustained growth in real GDP per head; relatively low, stable inflation; institutional resilience in the face of global shocks. Second, societal performance: the conversion of growth into broad-based welfare—low poverty and insecurity, long and healthy lives, high-quality public services, and tolerable levels of inequality. Judged against these twin criteria, the last century yields a compelling dual answer: the United States as the unmatched model of Innovation and Scale; Sweden (and, by extension, the Nordics) as the exemplar of Stability and Equity.

THE UNITED STATES: CREATIVE DESTRUCTION AT GLOBAL SCALE

To dismiss America’s claim is to misread modern capitalism. The United States has combined scientific leadership, entrepreneurial finance and open competition to monetise innovation faster and at greater scale than any peer. The record is a chain of general-purpose breakthroughs— mass production and consumer durables; semiconductors and software; the internet and now AI—each catalysing productivity waves domestically and spillovers globally.

Three structural advantages underpin this performance. Technological hegemony rests on world-class universities, deep research ecosystems and the capacity to commercialise— via start-ups, acquisition and public markets— at pace. The dollar’s reserve-currency status

delivers an enduring funding edge, anchoring global demand for US assets and lowering the cost of capital through cycles. And deep, flexible markets—for labour, venture and corporate control—reallocate resources with ruthless speed, shifting capital and talent from failing incumbents to emergent winners.

America’s record is not pristine: inequality is elevated; financial manias recur. Yet, on average and over long horizons, US citizens have enjoyed exceptionally high living standards, and the institutional spine—property rights, rule of law, academic freedom—has proved remarkably adaptive. The United States did not simply grow; it codified the playbook for how the world grows.

SWEDEN: STABILITY, EQUITY—AND COMPETITIVE

MARKETS

If the US model is a high-tuned racing machine, Sweden’s is the beautifully engineered grand tourer. Its achievement is not a repudiation of markets but their harnessing. Sweden runs a highly open, export-led economy (think Volvo, Ericsson, IKEA), competes on innovation and quality, and pairs that competitiveness with institutions built to spread risk and reward.

Several design choices matter. Export-led industrial strength keeps firms outward-facing and productive. Active labour-market policies prioritise retraining and job-to-job transitions over job protection, easing structural change and keeping long-term unemployment low. Fiscal prudence, hard-won after the early-1990s crisis, embedded rules that stabilised public debt and created room for counter-cyclical policy during the global financial crisis and beyond. And the welfare dividend—universal healthcare and education, parental leave, affordable childcare and robust social insurance—acts as a macro shock-absorber and a micro enabler, raising labour-force participation, supporting family formation and sustaining social trust.

The result is a system that consistently ranks near the top on human-development and quality-oflife metrics while remaining firmly capitalist and globally competitive. For the median Swedish household, the long run has been comparatively secure—and opportunity, comparatively broad.

TWO LENSES, TWO LEADERS

Choosing one “best” economy obscures what each proves possible.

America’s lesson is that an economy optimised for wealth creation and innovation can deliver epoch-defining scale and a durable edge in productivity-enhancing technologies. Its management “succeeds” by generating the raw material of prosperity, again and again.

Sweden’s lesson is that an advanced economy can combine market dynamism with social insurance and still compete at the frontier. Its management “succeeds” by converting prosperity into security and capability across the population—without smothering enterprise.

For a business readership, the policy takeaways are practical rather than ideological. The US

points to the power of institutionalised risktaking: strong IP regimes, contestable markets, patient early-stage capital and bankruptcy codes that recycle failure into future growth. Sweden highlights social infrastructure as growth policy: universal services and active labour programmes that increase effective labour supply and make structural change politically and socially sustainable. Both prize fiscal credibility and independent monetary policy; both invest—albeit via different channels—in human capital; both maintain open trade and competition.

WHERE THE MODELS STRAIN—AND WHAT TO BORROW

No model is costless. America’s strength in risk-taking coexists with structural frictions: high healthcare costs that act as a payroll tax on hiring, periodic financial excesses that spill into the real economy, and a skills gap that leaves too many workers excluded from frontier sectors. Physical infrastructure has lagged needs in key corridors, and housingsupply constraints in superstar cities have muted labour mobility—diluting one of the US economy’s historic advantages.

Sweden’s challenges are different. A small, open economy is exposed to global demand swings; demographics are tightening, raising old-age dependency and long-run fiscal pressures. Integration of migrants into high-productivity work remains uneven, and high taxation on labour—offset by efficient services—can still discourage marginal hours or entrepreneurship at the margin. Housing bottlenecks and planning rigidities have also constrained urban dynamism.

For mid-sized economies seeking a “best run” synthesis, the playbook is pragmatic. Combine US-style innovation capacity—competitive product markets, contestable digital and network sectors, deep venture ecosystems and generous, mission-oriented R&D—with Nordic-style social infrastructure: universal healthcare, high-quality early-years education and childcare to raise participation, portable training accounts and active labour programmes to speed reallocation. Add predictable fiscal rules that preserve space for investment; independent, datadriven regulators to maintain competition; and pro-housing supply reforms to restore internal mobility. On the external front, anchor openness with diversified supply chains and clear industrial-

policy guardrails: time-limited subsidies tied to productivity or decarbonisation milestones, sunset clauses, and robust evaluation.

The synthesis is not ideological but operational: reward risk, insure against ruin, and keep markets open and contestable. Do that—and the next “golden century” remains attainable.

THE EDITORIAL VERDICT

In a league table of economic heft, the United States remains the most powerfully run economy of the modern era—by virtue of its sustained, world-defining output and its unrivalled capacity to industrialise new technologies. But the deeper governance lesson sits with Sweden: a freemarket engine performs best when mounted on a robust, efficient public-sector chassis that spreads downside risk and invests in future productivity.

The “best-run” economy, ultimately, is the one that survives, adapts and delivers for its people through cycles and shocks. On that measure, America’s dynamism and Sweden’s stability are not rivals but complements—two indispensable blueprints for the next hundred years. i

The Caddy’s Gambit: How Reading a Golfing Opponent Can Elevate Your Business Game >

On the manicured fairways and pristine greens of a golf course, the subtle cues of an opponent can reveal more than their next shot. These same skills of observation and strategic deduction, honed in the heat of a round, are the secret weapon of the sharpest business minds. Forget the clichés; this is about using the art of the golf match to gain a crucial edge in the boardroom.

The sun dips low over the 18th. The air is dense with expectation. A rival chief executive stands over a make-or-break putt: the hands, the posture, the slight tremor at address. The perspiration on his brow is not merely meteorological; it is the arithmetic of pressure. Throughout the round the tells have accumulated—irritation after a hooked drive, shoulders set square after a crisply struck iron, the exhale that follows a fortunate bounce. Golf, in that moment, becomes a reading exercise. The text is human behaviour.

In commerce, strategy is too often caricatured as spreadsheets and market maps. The most underused instrument is the capacity to read the other party. Golf’s cadence—its pauses, routines and repeated tests under varying pressure— offers a live laboratory for developing precisely that competence.

RISK ON THE TEE: CLUB SELECTION AS CORPORATE SIGNATURE

A club choice is rarely mechanical. Distances and wind matter, but psychology rules. A conservative lay-up before water signals a manager who prizes downside protection; the bold five-iron that chases the green in two suggests appetite for variance and an instinct for optionality. In negotiation, the lay-up mind favours low-margin certainty and incrementalism; the go-for-it temperament backs emergent technologies and asymmetric pay-offs. Read the bag, and you are halfway to reading the board strategy.

TEMPO AND PROCESS: PACE OF PLAY AS OPERATING PHILOSOPHY

Impatience on the tee box—the player who rushes pre-shot routines, hurries between shots and forces the rhythm—often maps to a dealmaker who seeks closure over completeness. Errors creep in at the margins, details are skimmed, diligence compressed. By contrast, the golfer who walks the line, reads from multiple angles and repeats a precise routine is signalling process discipline. In the office, that discipline presents as thorough briefs, datadriven decisions and an intolerance for hand-

"A slumped shoulder after a missed threefooter, the clenched jaw after a plugged lie— these micro-reactions reveal stress tolerance."

waving. He or she will not be hustled; arguments must be evidenced.

WEATHERING THE BAD BOUNCE: EMOTIONAL RESILIENCE UNDER SCRUTINY

Body language is the round’s running commentary. A slumped shoulder after a missed three-footer, the clenched jaw after a plugged lie—these micro-reactions reveal stress tolerance. Some players allow one poor swing to metastasise into a ruined front nine; in business they are susceptible to narrative collapse after a bad quarter. Others compartmentalise: a double bogey followed by a fairway-splitter and a stiffed approach. That bounce-back capacity—resetting quickly, re-anchoring to process—marks the competitor who absorbs shocks and returns composed to the next decision.

THE CONVERSATION GAME: EXTROVERTS, ANALYSTS AND ADAPTIVE RAPPORT

Dialogue, or its absence, is instructive. The talkative partner, constantly narrating, is often an extroverted networker—strong in relationship-led sales, adept at soft power, less enamoured with solitary analysis. The quiet player, economical with words and keen with observation, may thrive in strategy and product but resist performative selling. On course, adjust accordingly: anecdotes and warmth for the former; crisp facts, clear asks and structured proposals for the latter. The lesson is not to mimic but to translate—meet preferred channels without surrendering your message.

GAMESMANSHIP AND SIGNAL NOISE: THE SUBTLE PSYCHOLOGY OF PRESSURE

Golf’s etiquette coexists with soft-edged gamesmanship: walking ahead to compress an opponent’s clock; a casual aside about a gust on the left; lingering near a putting line. None cross into cheating, but each tests focus. Business has its equivalents: rumour as positioning, selective leaks to shape sentiment, loaded “helpful” feedback seeded in a room. Recognising these moves on the fairway trains

the executive to separate signal from theatre, to return to reference points—facts, frameworks, first principles—when others introduce noise.

ETHICS AS EDGE: WHY INTEGRITY COMPOUNDS

Golf is a self-policed sport. Players assess their own penalties, call infractions on themselves, and protect the field when no one is watching. Small cheats on the course are not trivialities; they are disclosures. The player who improves a lie or “forgets” a stroke is advertising a willingness to cut corners in other arenas— expense claims massaged, data presented selectively, commitments reinterpreted after the event. Conversely, the competitor who takes a stroke without fuss when a ball oscillates is signalling stewardship. In business, reputational equity is the compounding asset; integrity is its interest rate.

PATTERN RECOGNITION: TURNING OBSERVATION INTO STRATEGY

Observation is only valuable if it informs action. Translate course behaviours into practical, commercial choices. With the fast-tempo dealmaker, pre-package decision paths and define non-negotiables early; use one-page dashboards to anchor meetings before speed becomes sloppiness. With the methodical counterpart, supply models, sensitivity analyses and benchmarks in advance; invite scrutiny to reduce friction later. Against the high-variance “go-for-it” rival, plan contingencies and stage-gate capital; against the chronic lay-up operator, exploit windows where speed and conviction create first-mover advantages.

PRESSURE REHEARSAL: THE PUTT AS PILOT TEST

The putt under gallery pressure is a microcosm

of earnings day. Routine, breath, visualisation and commitment to the line mirror investor calls and crisis briefings. Executives who practise a repeatable under-pressure cadence—short checklist, clear objective, controlled tempo—perform more consistently when scrutiny intensifies. Golf offers dozens of such repetitions in a single round; treat each as a rehearsal for the boardroom’s spotlight.

READING THE FIELD: BEYOND THE OPPONENT

A final refinement: situational awareness. Wind shifts, pin placement, firmness of greens—context can make a bold line sensible or reckless. In business, macro conditions, regulatory tone and capital-market sentiment perform the same role. Evaluate whether your counterpart’s aggression is native or contextdriven; likewise, do not misread caution born

of weather as a permanent trait. The superior reader distinguishes person from pattern and pattern from circumstance.

The fairway is not merely leisure; it is due diligence in slow motion. Golf compresses psychology, process, ethics and decisionmaking into observable sequences. The executive who learns to decode those sequences acquires more than a feel for someone’s swing: he or she gains a working model of how that person will behave under budget constraint, competitive threat or reputational heat. The lowest score is immaterial. The definitive victory belongs to the player who leaves the 18th green with a clearer map of the human terrain—armed, on Monday morning, to negotiate harder, partner smarter and lead with sharper intent. i

ANNOUNCING AWARDS 2025

AUTUMN HIGHLIGHTS

Once again CFI.co brings you reports of individuals and organisations that our readers and the judging panel consider worthy of special recognition. We hope you find our short profiles interesting and informative.

All the winners announced below were nominated by CFI.co audiences and

then shortlisted for further consideration by the panel. Our research team gathered additional information to help reach a final decision. In many cases, senior members of nominee management teams provided the judges with a personal view of what sets their companies and institutions apart from the competition.

As world economies converge we are coming across many inspirational individuals and organisations from developing as well as developed markets - and everyone can learn something from them. If you have been particularly impressed by an individual or organisation’s performance please visit our award pages at cfi.co and nominate.

IBM: SUPERIOR SHAREHOLDER ENGAGEMENT UNITED STATES 2025

IBM has built a long-standing reputation for its strong governance framework and transparent communication with investors, setting a global benchmark for shareholder engagement. The company’s approach prioritises clarity, accountability, and long-term value creation, ensuring that every stakeholder is informed and involved in shaping its strategic direction. IBM’s investor relations programme integrates comprehensive reporting, open dialogue, and proactive outreach, enabling meaningful engagement with institutional and individual shareholders alike. Through consistent updates on financial performance, sustainability progress, and technological innovation, IBM fosters

trust and reinforces confidence in its corporate vision. The company’s leadership maintains an active commitment to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) principles, aligning business objectives with sustainable growth and ethical responsibility. IBM’s annual meetings and continuous digital engagement platforms exemplify its dedication to transparency and inclusivity, allowing shareholders to provide valuable insights into governance and strategic decisions. Its efforts to strengthen communication channels have enhanced investor understanding of IBM’s transformation initiatives, particularly in areas such as artificial intelligence, hybrid cloud solutions, and

quantum computing. This open and collaborative approach underscores IBM’s recognition that engaged shareholders are essential to long-term corporate resilience and sustainable success. By cultivating mutual respect, trust, and accountability, the company continues to uphold its reputation as a leader in responsible business practice, sustainable innovation, and enduring stakeholder value creation across global industries and rapidly expanding international technology markets worldwide today. The Capital Finance International (CFI.co) Judging Panel proudly congratulates IBM on winning the 2025 Superior Shareholder Engagement Award (United States).

BARROW HANLEY: BEST GLOBAL VALUE INVESTMENT PARTNER UNITED STATES 2025

Barrow Hanley is a traditional, research-driven value investment firm with a stable culture and a disciplined process spanning US large and mid cap, global all cap, non-US developed markets and emerging markets. It seeks high-quality companies at reasonable valuations with identifiable catalysts, robust free cash flow and prudent balance sheets, emphasising operating leverage and downside protection. The firm has demonstrated resilience through shifting cycles, maintaining valuation discipline while finding pragmatic ways to participate in structural themes such as data-centre

infrastructure and defence. Portfolio construction is rigorous, with position sizing, profit-taking and risk controls designed to preserve alpha and temper volatility. Client alignment is central: Barrow Hanley offers customised solutions to accommodate benchmark sensitivities, capacity needs and ESG requirements, exemplified by a dedicated ESG mandate for a leading Nordic institution that has scaled to 1.3bn in roughly eighteen months. The firm’s global insights are informed by sector coverage and engagement with management teams, focusing on clear strategic plans, capital allocation discipline

and multiple avenues for value realisation. Recent product development includes a UK UCITS mid-cap strategy attracting early interest, reflecting demand for active value expertise. In a regime of normalised inflation and interest rates, Barrow Hanley argues that valuation is a decisive driver of returns, and its five-year records across US and ex-US strategies are competitive against global market indices. The Capital Finance International (CFI.co) Judging Panel congratulates Barrow Hanley on winning the 2025 Best Global Value Investment Partner (United States).

AccountAbility is a global sustainability advisory, research, and standards firm that integrates thought leadership, frameworks, and board-level counsel to help organisations embed ESG principles and practices into corporate strategy, governance, performance, and impact for over 30 years.

Operating out of offices in London, New York, Riyadh, and Dubai as a Public Benefit Corporation, AccountAbility advances responsible business practices through its Advisory Services, Industry-based Research, and the AA1000 Series of Standards. Guided by a culture of decency, professionalism, and excellence, AccountAbility accentuates client service and delivers practical solutions across the broad range of existing and emergent sustainability challenges facing businesses.

Recognised by the World Economic

Forum as an ESG Framework Developer and by Forbes and the Financial Times for its global consulting excellence, the firm combines rigour and pragmatism. Under Chief Executive Officer Mr Sunil (Sunny) A Misser, AccountAbility has reinforced its leadership bandwidth with an experienced Chief Operating Officer and other senior hires, enabling scalable delivery, strategic partnerships, and disciplined execution. The firm advises CEOs, Chairs, and Boards on the shift of sustainability “from sideline to bottom line”, aligning sustainability with the DNA of the business, and regularly convenes dialogues with global leaders on geopolitical business challenges, macro-economic trends and issues of corporate governance.

Recent client work includes a twelveyear programme supporting the International Monetary Fund on environmental data, reporting,

and sustainable procurement, and the launch of the AccountAbility “S” Lab partnership with the Colin Powell School for Civic and Global Leadership (City College of New York) to cultivate innovation and sustainability talent through accredited course-work, capstone projects, mentorship and professional fellowship experiences.

The firm is in the process of refreshing its AA1000 Stakeholder Engagement Standard (v3), in addition to recent updates to the Assurance Standard (AA1000 AS - v3) and AccountAbility Principles (AA1000 AP), to reflect current and future engagement needs, challenges, regulations and metrics.

The Capital Finance International (CFI. co) Judging Panel congratulates AccountAbility on winning the 2025 Best ESG Strategy Development Partner Award (Global).

SLAUGHTER & MAY: BEST CORPORATE & COMMERCIAL

LEGAL TEAM UK 2025

Slaughter & May stands as one of the United Kingdom’s most respected and influential law firms, renowned for its expertise in corporate and commercial law and its distinctive clientfocused approach. The firm’s advisory strength spans mergers and acquisitions, corporate governance, competition law, financing, and regulatory matters, consistently supporting leading organisations in achieving strategic objectives. Slaughter & May’s hallmark lies in its integrated partnership model, which fosters seamless collaboration across practice areas, enabling the delivery of innovative, precise, and

commercially astute legal solutions. Its clients include many of the world’s largest corporations and financial institutions, which rely on the firm’s deep industry insight and exceptional attention to detail. The firm’s commitment to legal excellence is underpinned by a strong culture of integrity, intellectual rigour, and continuous professional development. Slaughter & May actively embraces technology to enhance efficiency, streamline workflows, and improve client communication, all while maintaining the discretion and quality for which it is globally recognised. The firm also demonstrates a clear

SEGURCAIXA ADESLAS: BEST INSURER SPAIN 2025

dedication to sustainability, diversity, and pro bono work, reflecting its belief in responsible business and social value. Its thought leadership and engagement with regulatory developments reinforce its position as a trusted adviser in an ever-evolving legal landscape. By combining tradition with innovation, Slaughter & May continues to set benchmarks for professional excellence and client service. The Capital Finance International (CFI.co) Judging Panel congratulates Slaughter & May on winning the 2025 Best Corporate & Commercial Legal Team Award (UK).

SegurCaixa Adeslas has demonstrated exceptional resilience and strategic focus in a year marked by global uncertainty and shifting economic dynamics. As Spain’s leading health insurance company, it reinforced its dominance with revenue from premiums reaching €5.29bn in 2024, a growth of 8.1 percent over the previous year. This robust performance was further bolstered by the integration of the IMQ Group and a solid contribution to the growth of the Mutua Madrileña Group. A key strength lies in the company’s leadership in the health insurance segment, where it commands more than 30

percent market share—greater than its two nearest competitors combined. SegurCaixa Adeslas has continued to innovate its offering with advanced digital tools such as AI-powered chatbots and telehealth platforms, while enhancing customer experience through streamlined claims processes and personalised health plans. Strategic product development under the MyBox brand has fuelled significant growth across multirisks, accident, and car insurance segments, consistently outperforming market trends. The company’s commitment to quality is evidenced by improved service guarantees and extensive access to

healthcare professionals and facilities. Brand strength has also surged, with Adeslas achieving top-of-mind recognition in a competitive advertising environment. Under its 2024–2026 Strategic Plan, SegurCaixa Adeslas is leveraging data-driven insights to enhance core products and client engagement, while deepening its strategic partnership with CaixaBank. Its dedication to sustainable, profitable growth continues to set a benchmark within the Spanish insurance market. CFI.co Judging Panel congratulates SegurCaixa Adeslas on winning the 2025 award for Best Insurer (Spain).

Berenberg, Germany’s oldest privately owned bank, has cultivated a legacy of excellence in strategic investment consulting, leveraging over two decades of experience to support a diverse client base that includes institutional investors, corporate pension schemes, family offices, foundations, and ultra-high-net-worth individuals. Since 2019, its Investment Consulting team has overseen the development and execution of bespoke strategic asset allocation (SAA) and asset liability management (ALM) solutions across a platform with approximately ō40bn in assets

under management. At the core of Berenberg’s approach is a modular, high-performance consulting infrastructure that delivers tailored SAA and ALM studies with unrivalled speed and precision. This system is anchored by the team’s proprietary SAA & ALM Innovation Hub, an interactive, real-time dashboard enabling clients to collaborate with consultants while visualising forward-looking portfolio simulations. Recent enhancements to this hub include a dynamic risk factor analysis module, regulatory tools reflecting frameworks such as Solvency II and CRR III, and

an advanced controlling section that facilitates proactive portfolio management. The team’s continuous dialogue with Berenberg’s central data and innovation unit ensures technological integration, driving efficiency, client retention, and strategic alignment. The result is a sophisticated OCIO offering that remains unmatched in the German-speaking market. CFI. co Judging Panel congratulates Berenberg on winning the 2025 award for Best Strategic Asset Allocation & Asset Liability Management Team (Germany & Austria).

> ARCA FONDI SGR

BEST PRIVATE MARKET FUND ITALY 2025

Arca Fondi SGR has established itself as a prominent force within Italy’s asset management landscape, distinguished by its strategic focus on innovation, performance, and a comprehensive approach to investment solutions. With over 40 years of experience and assets under management exceeding ō36bn, the firm delivers a wide-ranging portfolio that spans equity, bond, balanced, and monetary funds, as well as bespoke mandates for institutional clients. Its increasing commitment to private markets reflects a forward-thinking strategy aligned with long-term value creation, capital preservation, and diversification. Arca

Fondi has strategically integrated private asset classes—including private equity, private debt, and infrastructure—into its offerings, leveraging proprietary research, disciplined selection processes, and a rigorous risk management framework. The firm’s structured investment governance ensures transparency and alignment with investors’ objectives, while its use of ESG criteria reinforces a strong commitment to responsible investing. Arca Fondi’s client-centric ethos is demonstrated through a robust digital platform and dedicated advisory services, facilitating accessibility and operational efficiency. The CFI.co judging

BEST EMERGING MARKETS DEBT MANAGER EUROPE 2025

Arca Fondi SGR has distinguished itself as a leader in asset management through its strategic expertise and robust approach to emerging markets debt. With over four decades of experience in the Italian financial landscape, the company has expanded its reach by offering specialised investment solutions that deliver long-term value while maintaining rigorous risk controls. Arca Fondi SGR manages a broad and diversified portfolio that includes bond and balanced funds, with a notable emphasis on sovereign and corporate debt in emerging markets. Its investment philosophy combines in-depth macroeconomic

analysis with bottom-up credit selection, enabling the firm to capture opportunities across diverse geographies and market cycles. The company adopts a responsible investment framework, integrating environmental, social, and governance (ESG) criteria into its decisionmaking processes, reflecting its commitment to sustainable finance. It also leverages proprietary research and active management to adjust exposure dynamically, ensuring resilience amid volatility and alignment with investors’ evolving expectations. Arca Fondi SGR’s in-house team of analysts and portfolio managers maintains

panel was particularly impressed by the firm's ability to navigate complex environments while delivering consistent, risk-adjusted returns. Arca Fondi's momentum in private market funds not only responds to evolving investor demand but also reflects a broader vision of sustainable economic development and stewardship. The firm exemplifies excellence in integrating alternative investments within mainstream portfolios without compromising on prudence or performance. CFI.co Judging Panel congratulates Arca Fondi SGR on winning the 2025 award for Best Private Market Fund (Italy).

a disciplined yet flexible strategy, responding swiftly to market developments and capital flows in emerging economies. Client transparency, digital engagement, and financial education further define the firm's ethos, fostering trust across institutional and retail client segments. Headquartered in Milan, the firm serves a growing base of Italian and European investors seeking yield and diversification through exposure to dynamic, high-potential markets. CFI.co Judging Panel congratulates Arca Fondi SGR on winning the 2025 award for Best Emerging Markets Debt Manager (Europe).

RAIFFEISEN BANK INTERNATIONAL: BEST STRUCTURED PRODUCTS BANK CEE 2025

Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI) has demonstrated consistent leadership and innovation in the structured products landscape across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) through its dedicated brand, Raiffeisen Certificates. With active distribution in ten CEE countries, including key markets such as Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Croatia and Poland, as well as recent momentum from Romania and the Western Balkans, the bank has successfully expanded its regional footprint. By tailoring structured bonds and certificates to specific customer needs and

market conditions, RBI has positioned itself as a customer-centric and responsive issuer. The volume of structured products sold increased by 12.2 percent from 2023, reflecting strong market demand and growing client trust. As of May 2025, outstanding volumes reached a record high, marking a ten percent rise since the beginning of the year. The bank’s current offering encompasses around 6,000 certificates with diverse payoff profiles in multiple currencies, ranging from capital protection instruments to leverage products. Of particular note is its dominant position in Poland, where

Raiffeisen Certificates has over 2,000 products listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange—making it the largest issuer by number of listings. This breadth and depth across markets illustrate RBI’s strategic focus, operational excellence and capacity to deliver sophisticated investment solutions that meet evolving demands of CEE investors. Strong local partnerships and digital capabilities further enhance distribution effectiveness and customer satisfaction. CFI. co Judging Panel congratulates Raiffeisen Bank International on winning the 2025 award for Best Structured Products Bank (CEE).

HANDELSBANKEN: SUSTAINABLE BANKING CHAMPION SWEDEN 2025

Handelsbanken has established itself as a leading force in sustainable banking, combining financial strength with an enduring commitment to environmental and social responsibility across Sweden and beyond. The bank’s decentralised business model empowers local branches to make decisions that best serve their communities, fostering trust, accountability, and long-term client relationships. Handelsbanken’s sustainability strategy is deeply integrated into its operations, financing, and investment practices, ensuring that environmental considerations and ethical governance underpin every business decision. Its responsible lending policies prioritise clients and projects

BAWAG

that contribute positively to the transition towards a low-carbon economy, supporting renewable energy initiatives, green housing, and sustainable enterprise growth. The bank actively measures and reduces its own environmental footprint, demonstrating leadership in achieving net-zero targets and promoting transparency in climate-related reporting, strengthening global awareness of sustainable economic practices across multiple sectors and local communities. Handelsbanken’s commitment to equality and inclusion further strengthens its role as a model for corporate responsibility, with a strong emphasis on diversity and employee wellbeing. The institution’s focus on digital

GROUP AG: BEST BANKING GROUP GOVERNANCE DACH 2025

innovation enhances operational efficiency while maintaining the human-centred values that define its service approach. Through educational initiatives and community investment, Handelsbanken encourages sustainable financial habits and supports broader societal progress and innovation in responsible finance worldwide. Its consistent performance, prudence, and ethical focus continue to distinguish it as a trusted partner for individuals and businesses seeking responsible financial solutions. The Capital Finance International (CFI.co) Judging Panel congratulates Handelsbanken on winning the 2025 Sustainable Banking Champion Award (Sweden).

BAWAG Group AG has demonstrated a disciplined and effective governance structure that has underpinned its strategic expansion and operational excellence across the DACH region. The company executed two major acquisitions—Knab Bank in the Netherlands, which brought with it a Dutch mortgage portfolio of €12.7bn, and Barclays Consumer Bank Europe in Hamburg, with both deals finalised in November and February respectively. These acquisitions, particularly Knab Bank’s focus on serving self-employed SMEs through digitalfirst solutions, have broadened BAWAG’s

market reach and bolstered its customer base from 2.1 million to over 4 million globally. The bank remains steadfast in its emphasis on seamless integration, reflecting a prudent approach to growth and risk management. Financially, BAWAG reported €760mn in net profit, enabling a dividend increase from €5.00 to €5.50 per share—an indicator of sound capital management and shareholder value creation. Its strong governance framework is further evidenced by a return on tangible common equity that has increased to 26 percent, solidifying its status as one of the most

profitable and resilient banks in the region. The company’s digital focus, robust capital position, and customer-centric acquisition strategy illustrate a comprehensive governance model that balances innovation with accountability and long-term sustainability goals and regulatory standards. These factors collectively affirm BAWAG Group AG’s leadership in banking governance, aligning stakeholder interests while navigating complex regulatory environments. CFI.co Judging Panel congratulates BAWAG Group AG on winning the 2025 award for Best Banking Group Governance (DACH).

> AXA IM SELECT: BEST MULTI-MANAGER INVESTMENT SOLUTIONS GLOBAL 2025

AXA IM Select continues to redefine the multi-manager investment landscape with a robust and diversified offering underpinned by strategic clarity and operational resilience. Now part of the BNP Paribas Group, following the completion of its acquisition in July 2025, AXA IM Select leverages enhanced scale, innovation and global presence to deliver outcomes. With assets under management and advisory totalling ō35bn as of June 2025, the firm provides discretionary portfolio management, fund-of-funds, investment advisory and protected solutions across

Europe and Asia. AXA IM Select maintains an open-architecture model, enabling it to select from the best managers across the investment universe and ensure portfolios are actively managed, diversified and strategically aligned to needs. This freedom, now paired with the strength and stability of BNP Paribas, empowers the firm to access a broader set of opportunities. A strong emphasis on responsible investing is embedded in its approach, with a long-term view that benefits clients and the wider community. Its strategic pillars—growth, performance, excellence,

resilience and responsibility—guide the firm’s direction while reinforcing its position as a client-centric manager. AXA IM Select remains committed to delivering insights with clarity, fostering transparency and building trust with retail investors. Its ability to adapt and thrive in changing conditions, coupled with a clear retail focus and data-driven decision-making, sets it apart in a competitive landscape. The Capital Finance International (CFI.co) Judging Panel congratulates AXA IM Select on winning the 2025 award for Best Multi-Manager Investment Solutions (Global).

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DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION LEADER IN HIGHER EDUCATION MIDDLE EAST 2025

Applied Science Private University (ASU) has distinguished itself as a regional frontrunner in digital transformation, reshaping how higher education is delivered, governed and experienced. The university has adopted a digital-first approach, embedding technology into teaching, research, operations and student engagement. Its curriculum reflects this shift, with new technical and vocational programmes in IT and AI that prepare graduates for emerging industries. Digitally enabled learning environments are underpinned by 154 computer laboratories, multimodal resources and workshops that support hands-on practice. The university

has embraced artificial intelligence not only as a subject of study but also as a tool for content delivery, knowledge management and institutional communication. By adopting schema markup and knowledgegraph friendly structures, ASU ensures that its academic outputs are accessible to both human and machine audiences. Research growth, strengthened through international collaborations, reinforces the credibility of this transformation, while ranking successes — first nationally and highly placed across Arab and regional categories — highlight external recognition of progress. Governance has adapted accordingly, with the quality

office embedding accreditation readiness and digital assurance into core processes. ASU’s leadership also acknowledges the importance of ethical guardrails, ensuring that rapid technological adoption enhances humancentred education rather than replacing it. By combining infrastructure, digital governance and forward-looking pedagogy, ASU provides a blueprint for universities navigating the complex shift to AI-driven futures. The Capital Finance International (CFI.co) Judging Panel congratulates Applied Science Private University on winning the 2025 Digital Transformation Leader in Higher Education Award (Middle East).

OUTSTANDING UNIVERSITY INTERNATIONALISATION STRATEGY MIDDLE EAST 2025

Applied Science Private University (ASU), the largest private institution in Jordan, has placed internationalisation at the centre of its mission, creating strong linkages between education, research and global engagement. Its leadership pursues partnerships with universities, technology firms and professional bodies worldwide, positioning ASU as a conduit for knowledge transfer and cross-border collaboration. The institution has cultivated international networks through faculty exchanges, joint projects and visits to leading innovation hubs, including initiatives in China focused on AI and technology. ASU is focusing recently in introducing distinguished Technical programmes that matches and fulfil

the current and future job market trends. Ranking achievements reinforce this trajectory, with ASU recording first place nationally in both QS and Times Higher Education, 48th across Arab universities and 94th regionally. Students benefit directly from these efforts through expanded mobility opportunities, exposure to international faculty and programmes designed to meet global accreditation standards. The university’s quality office ensures that international benchmarking informs governance and curriculum planning, embedding continuous enhancement into operations. Multilingual resources, state-ofthe-art laboratories and a competitive learning environment create conditions in which students

develop not only technical competence but also cross-cultural agility. The strategy is underscored by ASU’s ambition to serve as a bridge between Jordan and the wider world, preparing graduates who contribute to regional development while remaining competitive on the global stage. By aligning infrastructure, research priorities and academic culture with international best practice, ASU demonstrates a comprehensive model of outward-facing higher education leadership. The Capital Finance International (CFI.co) Judging Panel congratulates Applied Science Private University on winning the 2025 Outstanding University Internationalisation Strategy Award (Middle East).

PIONEERING COMMUNITY IMPACT RESEARCH UNIVERSITY MIDDLE EAST 2025

Applied Science Private University (ASU) integrates academic excellence with social responsibility, prioritising research that responds to pressing community needs across Jordan and the Middle East. The university recently expanded its remit through a technical college offering bachelor and diploma programmes in IT and AI, fields identified as crucial for national workforce development. Beyond skills delivery, ASU drives inquiry into applied solutions for challenges such as employability, digital inclusion and entrepreneurial resilience. Student perspectives are formally captured each academic year through surveys addressing

teaching, course content and services, ensuring that community voices shape institutional strategy. Extensive facilities, including 154 computer laboratories and multiple workshops, provide students and faculty with platforms to explore innovations relevant to local industries. International collaborations enhance this mission by connecting researchers with partners abroad, while maintaining focus on regional problems where academic research can yield tangible benefits. Rankings confirm ASU’s progress, with first place nationally in QS and Times Higher Education and recognition at both Arab and regional levels. The quality office coordinates governance and

accreditation processes to ensure projects meet global standards while serving community stakeholders. Evidence-based policymaking, vocational pathways and socially focused research converge in a model that balances academic rigour with measurable societal contribution. By embedding impact within curriculum and research, ASU demonstrates how private universities can become engines of both intellectual development and social progress. The Capital Finance International (CFI.co) Judging Panel congratulates Applied Science Private University on winning the 2025 Pioneering Community Impact Research University Award (Middle East).

QIC GROUP: BEST INSURANCE LEADERSHIP GCC 2025

QIC Group continues to set the benchmark for insurance excellence, combining visionary leadership with a steadfast commitment to innovation, sustainability, and community engagement across the GCC and international markets. The Group’s impressive 2025 milestones reflect a holistic approach to growth — from sponsoring major cultural and sporting events such as the Katara International Arabian Horse Festival, S’hail 2025, and the Doha Marathon by Ooredoo, to strengthening Qatar’s reputation as a global centre for culture, sport, and innovation. QIC’s introduction of groundbreaking products such as School Fees Protection Insurance and Personal Cyber Insurance, alongside enhancements to its award-winning QIC App, demonstrates a deep understanding of evolving customer needs. Regionally, QIC has expanded its operational footprint through subsidiaries in Oman and Kuwait, celebrating

OQIC’s 20th anniversary and doubling KQIC’s capital, while globally, QIC Asset Management earned distinction as a Top Investment House in Asian G3 Bonds. The Group's strategic investments in insurtech startups, its prominent participation in global events such as the Web Summit, and its role as host of the MENA Fintech and Insurtech Summits reaffirm its vital role as a digital innovator shaping the industry's future. Recognition at the MENA II Awards, the Insurance Asia Awards, and MSCI’s highest AAA ESG rating further underlines its excellence in governance, sustainability, and customer experience. Through continuous advancement in digitalisation, strategic partnerships, and market leadership, QIC Group exemplifies the values of Qatar National Vision 2030. The Capital Finance International (CFI.co) Judging Panel congratulates QIC Group on winning the 2025 Best Insurance Leadership Award (GCC).

DEEM FINANCE: VISIONARY LEADERSHIP IN DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION IN FINANCE UAE 2025

Deem Finance is a UAE non-bank finance company with a purpose to serve underserved and underbanked segments through agile, partnership-led innovation. Founded in 2008–09 and now owned by Gargash Group, the institution has doubled down on inclusive finance by collaborating with fintechs to accelerate transformation without the delay of building everything in-house. It deploys alternative data and closed-loop designs to extend responsible credit to low-income workers and micro and small enterprises while reducing cash frictions and risk. Retail

> KAY INTERNATIONAL AMEA LIMITED:

initiatives include a nano loan proposition and earned-wage access delivered through various fintech partners, providing shortterm liquidity for blue-collar workers earning around $1000 monthly. On the SME side, Deem Finance is digitising FMCG supply payments by embedding a commercial credit capability within a beverages app, offering up to 50-day terms and removing costly cash collection. It is developing merchant lending embedded with payment networks at point of sale, using live transaction feeds to inform risk and repayment. Internally, the firm has driven

cultural change, prioritising small proofs of concept, senior cross-functional sponsorship, and pragmatic use of AI to monitor call quality and escalate issues, improving service while building confidence in new tools. Strategic funding partnerships, including with J.P. Morgan, support scale as Deem Finance targets leadership among UAE non-bank lenders while maintaining a focus on purpose and prudence. The Capital Finance International (CFI.co) Judging Panel congratulates Deem Finance on winning the 2025 Visionary Leadership in Digital Transformation in Finance Award (UAE).

BEST REINSURANCE MANAGING GENERAL AGENT MENA 2025

Kay International AMEA Limited, headquartered in the Dubai International Financial Centre since 2016, has established itself as a trusted Managing General Agent with a reputation for underwriting excellence and operational integrity across complex and emerging markets. The company specialises in facultative and treaty reinsurance, providing tailored solutions that demonstrate depth and adaptability. Over the past decade, Kay has expanded its global footprint with offices in Miami and Singapore, enabling coverage across Latin America, the Caribbean, Southeast Asia, Africa, Central Asia, the Middle East, and South Asia, while its Dubai operation continues to serve as a strategic hub. A defining feature of the firm’s model is its claims reserve fund, supported by reinsurance capacity providers, which allows Kay to settle claims directly and operate as

a virtual reinsurer, ensuring efficiency and satisfaction. Kay has also built a diverse panel of highly rated reinsurers from multiple regions, mitigating concentration risk and fostering resilience in volatile environments. In 2025, it became the first MGA in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa to receive an AM Best Performance Assessment, achieving a PA-3 (Strong) rating, a milestone that underscores its financial strength, governance, and leadership. The company is equally committed to promoting awareness of the MGA model, engaging with regulators, and hosting industry discussions to encourage transparency and innovation in underdeveloped markets. The Capital Finance International (CFI.co) Judging Panel congratulates Kay International AMEA Limited on winning the 2025 award Best Reinsurance Managing General Agent (MENA).

Kenya Reinsurance Corporation Limited has repositioned itself as a regional leader in claims settlement efficiency through a focus on internal reform and technological innovation. Operating across over 30 countries in Africa and Asia, the corporation serves as a reinsurer to insurance providers, offering a robust security buffer. A pivotal transformation commenced three years ago, resulting in a reduction in claims processing times— from 60 days to just 3 days for fully supported claims. This improvement was underpinned by rigorous training across business functions to enable accurate underwriting assessments. Kenya Re’s commitment to innovation was demonstrated through its organisation of a regional hackathon involving 43 universities, leading to the development of AI and robotic process automation solutions that reduced processing

times to as little as 55 seconds. These solutions are being piloted for end-toend claims handling without human intervention for claims under $1,000. The corporation’s profitability has been buoyed by a growing facultative business, delivering higher margins than treaty arrangements and contributing to profits. In 2024, Kenya Re emerged as the most profitable regulated insurance entity in Eastern and Central Africa, with technical profits up by 336 percent. With expansion plans in India, Tanzania, and South America, an asset management subsidiary, and a foundation to manage CSR, Kenya Re continues to advance ESG agenda. The Capital Finance International (CFI.co) Judging Panel congratulates Kenya Reinsurance Corporation Limited on winning the 2025 award for Excellence in Rapid

ZNBS advances financial inclusion and narrows Zambia’s housing gap by mobilising affordable funding and extending services to underserved communities while sustaining performance. The society applies a stakeholder framework and embeds environmental, social and governance principles to balance profitability, prudence and purpose. It supports home ownership by keeping mortgage pricing competitive through economic cycles and by collaborating with developers, local authorities and organisations, including Habitat for Humanity. Serviced land banks in Mansa and Lusaka lower entry costs

CHAMPION OF FINANCIAL INCLUSION & AFFORDABLE

digital transformation programme is underway, featuring investments in a new core banking system, mobile and internet banking, automated loan origination and inclusive credit analytics. Partnerships with fintech channels broaden reach so clients can open accounts, apply for loans and transact conveniently nationwide. The society also promotes financial literacy to strengthen savings discipline and down-payment

IDFC FIRST BANK: BEST DIGITAL BANK INDIA 2025

IDFC FIRST Bank has redefined digital banking in India by blending advanced technologies with a deep-rooted commitment to customer-centricity. The bank’s digital strategy is anchored in accessibility, security, and inclusivity. This ensures that digital solutions are intuitive, empowering, and easy to use. Whether you're managing personal finances or running a business, you can access both accounts in one single mobile app, giving customers an unparalleled convenience. It caters to both high-net-worth individuals (HNIs) and rural customers. With over 250 thoughtfully designed features, the app simplifies banking by

offering services right at customers’ fingertips. From 100% paperless instant savings account opening to personalized financial insights and superfast query resolution, every feature is designed to deliver a secure, seamless, and truly customer-first digital experience. Through strategic ecosystem partnerships and advanced digital infrastructure, IDFC FIRST Bank Mobile App empowers customers with a unified view of their finances, smart transaction filters, and personalized insights and maintain a strong competitive edge in today’s digital-first economy. Innovation at IDFC FIRST Bank goes beyond banking services. IDFC FIRST

readiness. Data-led collaboration with public, private and civil-society partners maps the housing value chain to identify bottlenecks and target solutions that scale delivery. By aligning risk management with social outcomes, ZNBS demonstrates how a national building society can catalyse affordable housing at scale while delivering value to its shareholder and the wider economy. The Capital Finance International (CFI.co) Judging Panel congratulates Zambia National Building Society (ZNBS) on winning the 2025 Champion of Financial Inclusion & Affordable Housing Award (Africa).

Bank has launched the IDFC FIRST Academy, a digital literacy platform offering over 250 learning modules across 35 topics, in multiple vernacular languages. Accessible via mobile app, the curriculum is designed to promote financial literacy and inclusion at scale. Through its forward-thinking approach, IDFC FIRST Bank continues to set new benchmarks in digital banking. It delivers equitable, secure, and transformative financial services to millions across India. The Capital Finance International (CFI.co) Judging Panel congratulates IDFC FIRST Bank on winning the 2025 Best Digital Bank Award (India).

> BIAT (BANQUE INTERNATIONALE ARABE DE TUNISIE)

BEST BANK GOVERNANCE AND OUTSTANDING CONTRIBUTION TO YOUTH DEVELOPMENT TUNISIA 2025

BIAT (Banque Internationale Arabe de Tunisie) stands as the country’s largest privately owned financial institution, with assets exceeding €7.3bn, a workforce of 2,600 employees within the bank and 3,500 across the wider financial group, and more than 200 branches serving individuals, SMEs, corporates, and institutions. Its leadership position is firmly anchored in robust governance frameworks, strong financial performance, and an unwavering commitment to risk management. By September 2024, the bank had achieved clarity on delivering solid net banking income, underpinned by four key pillars: intermediation

margins supported by the lowest cost of resources in both dinar and foreign currencies; balanced commission policies ensuring fairness and quality; diversification across subsidiaries in insurance, SME financing, debt recovery, and financial market intermediation; and rigorous risk management governed by multiple specialised committees. This governance structure ensures results are protected even in a challenging economic environment. Beyond financial stewardship, BIAT has consistently demonstrated its role as a corporate citizen by supporting youth development and entrepreneurship. Its

BEST DIGITALISATION STRATEGY NORTH AFRICA 2025

BIAT (Banque Internationale Arabe de Tunisie), the undisputed leader of Tunisia’s banking sector with more than ō7.3bn in assets and over 200 branches nationwide, is redefining financial services across North Africa through its ambitious digitalisation strategy. The bank has placed innovation at the core of its roadmap, ensuring competitiveness and resilience in a rapidly evolving market. Its forwardlooking projects include the strategic spin-off of the IT division to create a dedicated vehicle for technological advancement and the deployment of robotic process automation to streamline operations while preserving and redeploying

human talent toward higher-value tasks. BIAT also works actively with global consulting partners to explore the integration of artificial intelligence, positioning itself to adopt and benefit from the latest technological advances. These efforts are supported by a focus on human resources, with investment in talent, training, and workplace wellbeing ensuring that digitalisation is people-centric and sustainable. The bank is also aligning its digital agenda with global priorities, developing green and blue finance solutions that will assist clients, particularly exporting SMEs, in meeting urgent carbon and

youth-focused initiatives include access to tailored financing, education programmes, and mentoring activities designed to nurture the next generation of Tunisian talent. This dual commitment to sustainable governance and social responsibility reinforces BIAT’s reputation for integrity, transparency, and closeness to the Tunisian people. The Capital Finance International (CFI.co) Judging Panel congratulates BIAT (Banque Internationale Arabe de Tunisie) on winning the 2025 Best Bank Governance and Outstanding Contribution to Youth Development Award (Tunisia).

renewable energy requirements. With diversified group operations in insurance, SME financing, financial intermediation, and debt recovery, BIAT integrates digital systems across all subsidiaries to ensure cohesive governance and efficiency. By combining technological modernisation with prudent financial management and corporate responsibility, BIAT is setting a benchmark for digital banking transformation across the region. The Capital Finance International (CFI.co) Judging Panel congratulates BIAT (Banque Internationale Arabe de Tunisie) on winning the 2025 Best Digitalisation Strategy Award (North Africa).

BANCO INTERATLÂNTICO: VISIONARY IN REGIONAL ECONOMIC EMPOWERMENT CAPE VERDE 2025

Banco Interatlântico plays a pivotal role in strengthening Cape Verde’s economy by focusing on financial inclusion, sustainable growth, and community empowerment. As the fourth largest bank in the country with around 11 to 12 percent market share in deposits, it has carved out a distinctive niche by concentrating on private individuals and household lending, where it ranks third in the market. The bank supports low-income citizens, women, and young entrepreneurs through tailored microcredit initiatives, including programmes co-developed with the Portuguese and Cape Verdean governments.

These facilities, with maximum disbursements of 500 euros, are designed to encourage self-employment and foster resilience within communities. Banco Interatlântico recognises the lower credit risk presented by women-led ventures and offers preferential pricing to incentivise their pursuits. Beyond domestic operations, the bank supports the Cape Verdean diaspora by facilitating remittances and small-scale investments in housing and businesses, thereby sustaining livelihoods and strengthening ties. Partnerships with the IMF, World Bank, and IFC reinforce its credibility and enhance the impact of poverty-reduction

initiatives. The institution is also advancing digital innovation, being the first in Cape Verde to implement qualified electronic signatures, enabling clients, particularly those abroad, to transact remotely. Sustainability is another strategic pillar, with the bank aligning with Caixa Geral de Depósitos’ objectives, hosting conferences, and pioneering initiatives to encourage corporate adoption of sustainable finance. The Capital Finance International (CFI.co) Judging Panel congratulates Banco Interatlântico on winning the 2025 Visionary in Regional Economic Empowerment Award (Cape Verde).

CENTRAL AMERICAN BANK FOR ECONOMIC INTEGRATION (CABEI): OUTSTANDING CONTRIBUTION TO ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT LATIN AMERICA 2025

Founded 65 years ago by five Central American nations, the Central American Bank for Economic Integration (CABEI) has evolved into a pivotal financial institution with 15 member countries across Latin America, Europe, and Asia. As a leading multilateral development bank, CABEI has demonstrated its relevance by contributing nearly 50 percent of all multilateral financing in the region over the past two decades. The bank’s interventions have enabled essential infrastructure development, including the Central American Electrical Interconnection System (SIEPAC), road networks, healthcare facilities, and sanitation

systems. CABEI leverages its AA credit rating— Latin America's highest—to mobilise resources through the international capital markets and provide favourable financing terms to its member countries. Since 2019, CABEI has issued 33 ESG-labelled bonds totalling more than $8bn, encompassing social, green, blue sustainability and thematic bonds, including the first Sports Bond and the first Mother Health bond. Under its strategic framework, CABEI focuses on transparency, financial rigour, operational excellence, and impact. It maintains a 75 percent project-based lending profile— uncommon among multilateral banks—ensuring

tangible benefits across member states. Its climate adaptation and nature-based initiatives address environmental challenges in vulnerable regions, supported by partnerships with the EU, KfW, AFD, and the Green Climate Fund. CABEI also champions inclusive growth through SME support, public-private partnerships, and gender equity. With record net income in 2024 and an improved outlook, CABEI remains a cornerstone for sustainable development and regional integration. The CFI.co Judging Panel congratulates CABEI on winning the 2025 award for Outstanding Contribution to Economic Development (Latin America).

CENTRAL RESERVE BANK OF EL SALVADOR: BEST CENTRAL RESERVE BANK CENTRAL AMERICA 2025

The Central Reserve Bank of El Salvador demonstrates leadership in innovation and transparency, underscoring its role in safeguarding stability and advancing financial inclusion. The “My Financial Journey” bus delivers financial education nationwide, taking a six-station gamified experience to schools; students open accounts, receive funds via mobile app, and practise payments via QR and transfers, with prizes for saving. The Bank also executed the country’s first digital Population and Housing Census in roughly two months and published results within the same year, a regional first that drew commendations from the United Nations Population Fund, the US Census Bureau, the Caribbean Demographic Centre, and the Inter-American Development Bank, earning an award. Core central-bank functions remain robust, including financial agency duties, Eurobond operations, and debt

issuance. The Bank operates Transfer 365, a free, 24/7 interbank transfer service with 91.37 percent market participation, helping save an estimated $3.325bn in fees and extending access. It hosted the Global Policy Forum on Financial Inclusion, welcoming 74 institutions from 65 countries and 800 participants to exchange learnings and inform future initiatives. Governance standards have been strengthened through preparation for ISO 37001 anti-bribery certification, while workplace excellence has been recognised with top ranking among state institutions. Looking ahead, the Bank is developing account-agnostic digital transfers to further inclusion beyond traditional channels. The Capital Finance International (CFI.co) Judging Panel congratulates Central Reserve Bank of El Salvador on winning the 2025 award Best Central Reserve Bank (Central America).

PERFORMANCE: BEST INVESTMENT SERVICES FOR PENSION FUNDS BRAZIL 2025

PPS Portfolio Performance is recognised as one of the most established and respected investment consultants in Brazil dedicated to the pension fund sector. Founded with traditional values and professional rigour, the company has expanded steadily despite a challenging environment marked by consolidation of smaller pension funds into multi-sponsored structures, some operated by banks. PPS Portfolio Performance has responded to this transformation by strengthening its client base and broadening services, positioning itself as a trusted partner to funds navigating Brazil’s complex financial

landscape. The firm has played an important role in guiding clients through the high-interestrate environment, where the Central Bank’s basic rate stands at 15 percent, creating a temptation to overconcentrate in fixed income. PPS Portfolio Performance has consistently advised against short-term thinking, instead advocating diversification across private equity, infrastructure, Brazilian equities, and international assets. Its work extends beyond asset allocation to participant education, encouraging pension funds to focus on longterm sustainability and reducing pressure for immediate returns. The company also

anticipates structural changes in retirement planning, drawing attention to medical and technological advances that could accelerate life expectancy. PPS Portfolio Performance highlights longer lifespans’ implications for savings and retirement strategies, urging funds to adapt their models accordingly. This forwardlooking perspective underlines the company’s commitment not only to financial results but also to broader demographic challenges. The Capital Finance International (CFI.co) Judging Panel congratulates PPS Portfolio Performance on winning the 2025 Best Investment Services for Pension Funds Award (Brazil).

BMO: CHAMPION OF RETAIL BANKING CANADA 2025

BMO has long been recognised as a cornerstone of Canada’s financial ecosystem, consistently delivering comprehensive retail banking services designed to meet the diverse and evolving needs of individuals and communities nationwide. The bank’s customer-centric approach integrates advanced digital solutions with personalised service, ensuring accessibility, convenience, and trust across its extensive branch and online networks. BMO’s strategic investment in digital transformation has resulted in intuitive platforms that streamline everyday banking, facilitate financial planning, and promote longterm customer wellbeing. Through innovative

products such as savings solutions, mortgage offerings, and tailored lending options, BMO empowers clients to achieve their financial aspirations with confidence. The bank’s commitment to inclusivity is evident in its efforts to support underserved communities, champion financial literacy, and encourage sustainable financial habits across Canada. Strong governance, ethical leadership, and a transparent operational framework underpin its continued stability and resilience in a competitive market. BMO’s emphasis on sustainability further reinforces its role as a forward-thinking institution, integrating environmental and social responsibility into its

operations and lending practices. The bank’s philanthropic initiatives and partnerships contribute meaningfully to Canadian society, strengthening its position as a trusted financial partner nationwide. Its dedication to continuous innovation ensures that every customer interaction delivers value, trust, and clarity. By combining innovation, empathy, and integrity, BMO continues to redefine the retail banking experience while maintaining its heritage of reliability and customer focus. The Capital Finance International (CFI.co) Judging Panel congratulates BMO on winning the 2025 Champion of Retail Banking Award (Canada).

TEKCAPITAL: LEADERSHIP IN HIGH-VALUE INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY STRATEGIES GLOBAL 2025

Tekcapital plc, founded by Dr. Clifford Gross in 2014 following research he conducted during an Oxford MBA programme, was created with the mission of helping to unlockthe vast commercial potential of university-developed intellectual property that often remains unutilised. The company identified that approximately 80 percent of academic discoveries never reach the market, representing a significant loss of valuable global intellectual capital. Tekcapital addressed this challenge by building the world’s most extensive specialised search engine, linked to more than 4,500 universities across 162 countries, enabling the identification of promising innovations. To help assess their viability, Tekcapital established a global science board of over 60 experts and acquired Invention Evaluator, an analytical service that assesses the market potential of new technologies, which it later enhanced with generative AI and spun out as a separate listed company (GENIP plc), which now supports over 250 universities and corporations worldwide

including NASA and Hewlett-Packard. Recognising the opportunity to leverage its own methodologies, Tekcapital created and invested in five innovative portfolio companies founded on compelling intellectual property, four of which are already listed and a fifth which recently filed an S1, preparing it for public markets. From initial net assets of $1.7m in 2014, Tekcapital has grown to $77.4m in the first half of 2025, consistently achieving returns on invested capital of around 25 percent annually in a sector where 90 percent of start-ups fail and only one in 2,000 receive venture funding. Its model combines rigorous technology assessment, strategic intellectual property protection, and comprehensive support for entrepreneurial teams, demonstrating the effectiveness of its approach to bridging the gap between academia and market application. The Capital Finance International (CFI.co) Judging Panel congratulates Tekcapital on winning the 2025 Leadership in High-Value Intellectual Property Strategies Award (Global).

2025

Clarien Bank Limited has distinguished itself as a premier provider of private banking solutions in Bermuda, delivering a blend of bespoke financial services and personalised client care, of the highest calibre and unwavering confidentiality for discerning international clientele globally. The bank’s approach is grounded in discretion, professionalism, and a deep understanding of the unique requirements of high-networth individuals and families. Clarien Bank Limited’s suite of services encompasses wealth management, investment advisory, trust administration, and succession planning, each tailored to meet specific client objectives. Its

strength lies in combining global financial expertise with local insight, ensuring clients benefit from both stability and opportunity within Bermuda’s sophisticated regulatory environment. The institution continues to invest in advanced digital infrastructure that enhances efficiency, strengthens security, and supports a seamless client experience. Clarien Bank Limited’s team of experienced professionals applies rigorous due diligence, prudent risk management, and strategic asset allocation to preserve and grow client wealth sustainably. Its commitment to transparency, ethical practice, and fiduciary responsibility reinforces long-

term relationships built on trust and mutual respect. The bank’s focus on innovation and sustainability also reflects a forward-thinking philosophy that aligns financial performance with responsible stewardship and inclusive progress. By maintaining the highest standards of excellence and service, Clarien Bank Limited continues to enhance Bermuda’s reputation as a leading jurisdiction for private banking and wealth management worldwide. The Capital Finance International (CFI.co) Judging Panel congratulates Clarien Bank Limited on winning the 2025 Outstanding Private Banking Services Award (Bermuda).

EUROPEAN BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT (EBRD): TRAILBLAZERS IN CLIMATE FINANCE INITIATIVES EUROPE 2025

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) plays a transformative role in aligning financial flows with sustainable development objectives across its regions of operation. Originally mandated to bolster private sector growth in post-communist economies, EBRD has evolved into a pivotal force in climate finance, integrating market discipline with sustainability. The Bank pioneered energy efficiency investments to address inefficiencies in energy usage across sectors, improving competitiveness, reducing pollution, and enhancing quality of life. EBRD stands apart by combining financial investment

with policy reform, supporting regulatory frameworks, capacity-building, and enhanced market standards alongside deployment. Its decentralised operational model, with strong incountry presence, enables it to identify needs rapidly. Climate initiatives have expanded into renewable energy development, greening of financial sector, and resilience investments. Paris alignment is a core principle, with criteria ensuring each project supports long-term decarbonisation without creating carbon lock-in. The Bank applies dual assessments—alignment with national policies and carbon lock-in analysis—

particularly when evaluating gas infrastructure in energy transitions. EBRD’s agility in adapting to crises, including the financial downturn, climate emergencies, and geopolitical conflicts like the war in Ukraine, exemplifies its responsiveness and commitment to regional advancement. Under visionary leadership and driven by a strong sense of duty among staff, EBRD continues to support countries in achieving climate and economic resilience. The Capital Finance International (CFI.co) Judging Panel congratulates EBRD on winning the 2025 award for Trailblazers in Climate Finance Initiatives (Europe).

JP Morgan Chase stands at the forefront of the global financial industry, consistently redefining the landscape of investment banking through a robust combination of technological advancement, client-centric solutions, and strategic foresight. With operations spanning over 100 markets, the firm leverages its unparalleled scale and deep sector expertise to deliver bespoke advisory, capital-raising, and risk management services to a diverse global clientele. The bank’s commitment to digital innovation is evidenced by its significant investment in artificial intelligence, blockchain integration, and predictive analytics—

tools that not only streamline internal operations but also offer enhanced value to clients through improved accuracy and responsiveness. Its data-driven approach supports an adaptive strategy that keeps pace with shifting market dynamics and evolving regulatory requirements. Furthermore, JP Morgan Chase has demonstrated leadership in sustainable finance, channelling over $400bn into green and socially responsible initiatives as part of its long-term commitment to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) principles. The firm’s culture of continuous improvement is underpinned by its extensive

research capabilities, elite talent acquisition, and enduring client relationships, which together ensure its position as a trusted adviser to governments, corporations, and institutional investors. In an increasingly competitive and digital-first environment, JP Morgan Chase remains resolute in its pursuit of innovation as a means of shaping the future of investment banking, championing excellence, inclusion, and long-term value creation. CFI.co Judging Panel congratulates JP Morgan Chase on winning the 2025 award for Most Innovative Investment Banking Services (USA).

MODELS US 2025

Bank of America’s Consumer Investments platform has become a leader in hybrid investment advisory services through a scalable model that blends digital innovation with personalised guidance. Its robust platform offers clients the flexibility to invest independently with Merrill Edge Self-Directed, through Merrill Guided Investing, its robo-advisory solution, or in Merrill Guided Investing with Advisor, which offers collaboration with advisors. The integration of Merrill Guided Investing and Merrill Guided Investing with an Advisor allows clients to benefit from a goal-oriented, high-tech, and high-touch approach. This multi-tiered model addresses

a wide spectrum of financial needs, ensuring accessibility for first-time investors while offering tailored solutions for sophisticated clients. As part of the Bank of America ecosystem, clients enjoy seamless integration of their investments with banking services, enhancing the proposition. Features such as real-time transfers, holistic account visibility, and tiered rewards contribute to an elevated experience. Investment in proprietary technologies and the development of incomeoriented portfolios reflect Merrill Edge’s ethos. With 4 million client accounts and over $500bn in assets, the Consumer Investments platform demonstrates scale and adoption. Emphasis on

financial literacy through Better Money Habits and goal tracking via Life Plan reinforces its commitment to inclusion. Clients benefit from commission-free trading and no minimum investment requirements, underscoring the platform’s dedication to democratising access. In addition, the firm’s continuous innovation, supported by internal development and a vast adviser network, positions it as a benchmark in hybrid financial services. The Capital Finance International (CFI.co) Judging Panel congratulates Bank of America’s Merrill Edge on winning the 2025 award for Excellence in Hybrid Investment Advisory Models (US).

Africa’s Industrial Ascent: Forging a New Economic Future

Africa—long defined by vast natural resources and a burgeoning youth population—stands at a pivotal juncture. For decades, development has been intertwined with commodity exports, a path that, while generating revenue, has too often fallen short of delivering broad-based prosperity and durable growth. A profound shift is now underway. Across the continent, nations are pursuing an ambitious programme of industrialisation: transforming raw materials into finished goods, creating millions of jobs, and building resilient, diversified economies. This is more than an economic aspiration; it is a strategic imperative, underpinned by renewed political will and the promise of a unified continental market.

Why Industrialisation Matters

The case for industrialisation rests on its proven role in sustained growth and poverty reduction. It drives structural transformation, moving economies from low-productivity agriculture and informal services towards higher value-added activity. This transition is vital to absorb Africa’s rapidly expanding youth labour force—projected to be the world’s largest working-age population by 2050. Without a robust industrial base, a potential demographic dividend could become a demographic burden as millions struggle to se-cure decent work.

A Difficult Starting Point

For much of the post-independence era, industrialisation faced strong headwinds, cul-minating in what many economists term “premature de-industrialisation”. An initial manufacturing surge in the 1960s—often via state-led import-substitution—gave way to decline in the 1990s across many sub-Saharan economies. Structural adjustment, weak infrastructure, limited finance, fragile institutions and intense competition from rapidly industrialising Asia all played a role. African firms struggled to compete on price and quality; the continent remained at the base of global value chains, exporting unpro-cessed commodities and importing finished goods. In 2023, Africa imported nearly three times the value of manufactured and medium-to-high-tech goods that it exported.

MOMENTUM FOR CHANGE

Despite historical constraints, a new wave of optimism and strategic intent is evident. Governments, regional bodies and development partners increasingly recognise industrialisation as a critical pathway to the Sustainable Development Goals and inclusive growth. Several drivers underpin this shift.

Demographics as demand and supply. A youthful, growing population represents both a substantial labour pool and a vast consumer market. An expanding middle class is fuelling demand for manufactured goods, creating an internal market capable of sustaining industrial growth and reducing exposure to volatile external demand.

Reframing resources as inputs, not just exports. Abundant natural resources are being repositioned as feedstock for value-added production. Countries are moving to process minerals, agricultural produce and other raw materials domestically—capturing a larger share of value chains and building resilience against commodity price shocks. Efforts include local transformation of agricultural products and minerals such as cobalt and copper, essential to the global green transition.

Infrastructure for scale. Significant investment is laying the groundwork for industrial expansion. Industrial parks, special economic zones (SEZs) and logistics hubs—often developed via public–private partnerships—offer incentives, reliable power, improved transport links and streamlined administration. These clusters enable manufacturing to thrive, benefiting from economies of scale and shared services.

A more enabling policy environment. Many countries are pursuing foreign direct investment through targeted incentives and regulatory reform. Contemporary industrial policy is increasingly tailored to national contexts, emphasising agroprocessing, labour-intensive light manufacturing and selected knowledge-intensive niches. The aim is a predictable, supportive business climate that attracts long-term investment and nurtures domestic enterprise.

AfCFTA AS CATALYST

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), launched in 2019, is the world’s largest free-trade area by participating countries, uniting a market of roughly 1.4 billion people and a combined GDP measured in the trillions of US dollars. The agreement is designed to dismantle barriers, boost intra-African trade and cultivate regional value chains. A single, integrated market offers unprecedented opportunities for scale, market access and resource allocation. Projections suggest successful implementation could double the size of Africa’s manufacturing sector, lifting annual output towards $1 trillion by 2025 and creating more than 14 million jobs. Crucially, the framework also champions green industrialisation—encouraging environmentally sustainable manufacturing—signalling a development path that aligns with ecological imperatives.

"Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation and largest economy, is leveraging a vast domestic market and resources to drive industrial growth in cement, consumer goods, food and beverages, and refining."

EARLY LEADERS AND EMERGING HUBS

South Africa remains a pivotal industrial player. Its advanced infrastructure, diversified base and global partnerships underpin strength in automotive, chemicals, steel and food processing—supported by major corporates such as Sasol and ArcelorMittal South Africa. Energy security remains a challenge, but the industrial platform is substantial.

Egypt has positioned itself as a continental manufacturing leader, exporting to Europe and the Middle East with strong capabilities in chemicals, cement, pharmaceuticals and petrochemicals. Reforms and large-scale projects, including the Egyptian Refining Company, demonstrate commitment to value addition and lower emissions.

Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation and largest economy, is leveraging a vast domestic market and resources to drive industrial growth in cement, consumer goods, food and beverages, and refining. The Dangote Refinery exemplifies ambitions to meet local demand and build an export base, while “Made in Nigeria” programmes encourage localisation and investment.

Morocco has emerged as a high-tech hub, attracting significant FDI in automotive and aerospace. Strategic location, incentives and close EU ties have enabled firms such as Renault and PSA Group to establish major operations, turning the country into a platform for sophisticated exports.

Kenya is advancing in consumer goods and agroprocessing, with Nairobi an innovation node for pharmaceuticals and plastics. The government’s “Big Four Agenda” prioritises manufacturing, and Kenya’s industrial base supplies a substantial share of East Africa’s motor-vehicle demand.

Ethiopia has pursued an ambitious industrialpark strategy, leveraging low-cost labour to attract global firms in garments, textiles and leather. Despite recent challenges, strong policy support for export-led manufacturing— exemplified by “Plan 2020”—has expanded textiles and apparel, generating foreign exchange and employment.

Ghana is targeting value-added manufacturing in agriculture and cocoa. The “One District, One Factory” programme fosters SME growth and local processing, reshaping the industrial landscape.

Beyond these leaders, Rwanda has improved ease of doing business and expanded manufacturing’s GDP contribution, with growing activity in electronics and auto assembly. Algeria is strengthening cement, automotive, steel and electronics. Eswatini stands out with manufacturing value added at about 27 percent of GDP, propelled by textiles and sugar processing with preferential market access. Benin, Gabon, Togo, DRC and the Republic of Congo are developing SEZs and industrial platforms to attract investment and build targeted clusters.

OBSTACLES ON THE ROAD

Persistent infrastructure deficits—especially power shortages and logistics bottlenecks— continue to weigh on competitiveness. Access to affordable finance remains limited, particularly for SMEs, constraining technology adoption and expansion. Weak institutions, governance issues and political instability in some markets deter long-term capital and undermine policy continuity. Global competition is intense; African manufacturers must continuously innovate and raise productivity to secure positions in value chains.

OPPORTUNITIES TO SEIZE

The pivot to green industrialisation offers a chance to leapfrog older, more polluting models—embracing clean technologies, renewable energy and sustainable production. Digital transformation and Industry 4.0 tools can boost efficiency and competitiveness. Investment in human capital—through technical and vocational education and training (TVET) aligned with industry needs—is essential to develop the skilled workforce modern manufacturing requires.

Africa’s industrialisation is no distant aspiration; it is a tangible, ongoing process. Historical setbacks are real, but momentum—driven by a young population, resource endowments, strategic infrastructure and the unifying force of the AfCFTA—signals a new era. The continental pioneers show what is possible when political will, strategic investment and value addition converge. The journey will be complex, demanding sustained effort, innovative solutions and robust partnerships. By converting raw materials into finished products and demographic potential into productive capacity, Africa is forging a new economic future—one that promises greater prosperity, resilience and self-determination. i

> Samaila Zubairu: Championing Africa’s Economic Transformation Through Infrastructure Investment

Under the stewardship of Samaila Zubairu, the Africa Finance Corporation has become a driving force for industrialisation, clean energy and pan-African prosperity.

Samaila Zubairu, President and Chief Executive Officer of Africa Finance Corporation (AFC), has established himself as one of the continent’s most effective champions of value creation, industrial development, and strategic infrastructure investment. With more than three decades of experience in finance and development, Zubairu has consistently advanced a bold vision of African-led growth—one centred on long-term infrastructure, job creation, and economic selfsufficiency.

Since taking the helm at AFC in 2018, Zubairu has driven exponential growth in the Corporation’s footprint, financial strength, and impact. Under his leadership, AFC has doubled its sovereign membership base, quadrupled its investments, and more than tripled profits as of year-end 2024. He has overseen the Corporation’s largest acquisition to date: the landmark purchase of renewable energy producer Lekela Power through Infinity Power—Africa's largest pure-play renewable energy provider. This single transaction expanded clean power access to over a million homes and avoided millions of tonnes of CO2 emissions.

Zubairu’s results-driven leadership has not gone unnoticed. In 2024, AFC was named Pan-African Champion at the Africa CEO Forum Awards and Financial Adviser of the Year at the IJ Investor Awards. In the preceding year, AFC received the Local Impact Champion award at the 2023 Africa CEO Forum and was recognised for Equity Deal of the Year by African Banker Awards for the Lekela acquisition. AFC was also awarded DFI of the Year for Europe & Africa at the 2022 Infrastructure Journal Global Awards. Zubairu himself was named African CEO of the Year by AsiaOne Magazine, cementing his reputation as a visionary leader in African finance. He was also conferred Senegal’s highest national honour, the Ordre National du Lion – Commandeur, in recognition of his service to African development.

Beyond accolades, his legacy is firmly grounded in delivery. A trained chartered accountant, Zubairu was the pioneer CFO of Dangote Cement Plc, where he led the creation of Africa’s largestever syndicated project finance facility. He also managed the unbundling of Dangote Industries and played a foundational role in establishing

the Nigerian Infrastructure Investment Fund 1 in partnership with African Infrastructure Investment Managers (AIIM).

He also plays a leading role in shaping continental financial cooperation. Zubairu chairs the Alliance of African Multilateral Financial Institutions (AAMFI), a coalition of Africa's top development finance insitutions working to harmonise regional development efforts and amplify Africa's voice on the global stage. He additionally co-chairs the B20 South Africa Task Force on Finance & Infrastructure, where he contributes to crafting private sector policy recommendations for the G20.

His commitment to sustainability is deeply embedded in his work. As co-chair of the World Economic Forum’s Network to Mobilize Clean Energy Investment in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs), Zubairu is

shaping global standards for climate finance. Through AFC, he has championed groundbreaking clean energy projects—from wind farms in Djibouti to integrated industrial platforms in Gabon— building climate resilience while advancing regional development.

A regular keynote speaker at major global fora including the UN Climate Summits and World Economic Forum, Zubairu continues to position Africa as a serious investment destination with global relevance. He is an Eisenhower Fellow and holds a BSc in Accounting from Ahmadu Bello University. He is also a Fellow of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Nigeria.

Through his strategic vision and tireless execution, Samaila Zubairu is not only redefining infrastructure finance on the continent—he is helping to write a new chapter in Africa’s development story. i

> Africa Finance Corporation: Powering Africa’s Future Through Pragmatic Investment and Infrastructure

The Africa Finance Corporation is redefining development on the continent by championing bankable, climate-resilient, and inclusive infrastructure projects. With US$17bn invested across 36 countries, AFC is a model of how strategic capital and partnerships can catalyse Africa’s sustainable growth.

In an era where long-term investment is displacing traditional aid as the engine of sustainable global development, the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) has become one of the most dynamic institutions. Established in 2007, AFC was designed to fill a glaring gap—funding and executing critical infrastructure that drives industrialisation, regional integration, and economic resilience across Africa.

With more than US$17bn deployed across over 160 transformative projects in 36 countries, AFC combines the development mandate of a multilateral with the operational agility of a pragmatic institution. Its model is grounded in delivering bankable infrastructure that is financially viable, socially inclusive, and environmentally sound. Backed by strong credit ratings — Moody’s (A3, Stable), Japan Credit Rating Agency (A+, Stable), S&P Global (China) (AAA_spc, Stable), and China Chengxin International (AAA, Stable) — AFC has earned global investor trust while remaining deeply rooted in African priorities.

DELIVERING INFRASTRUCTURE THAT TRANSFORMS AFC’s portfolio spans the continent, with flagship projects demonstrating scale, sustainability, and cross-border impact. AFC is a major investor in Infinity Energy, the majority shareholder in Infinity Power Holdings — Africa’s largest independent renewable power producer. With operating wind and solar assets in Egypt, Senegal, and South Africa, Infinity Power Holdings generates over 4,200 GWh annually, enough to power 1.2mn homes and avoid more than 3mn tonnes of CO2 emissions. The Infinity platform is targeting 10 GW of installed capacity by 2030.

In Djibouti, AFC served as the lead developer and project manager for Red Sea Power, a consortiumowned venture that launched the country’s first utility-scale wind farm. The 60 MW Ghoubet facility now supplies clean power to nearly a million people—a milestone that sets Djibouti firmly on the path to becoming the first African nation powered entirely by renewables. This project highlights AFC’s ability to de-risk critical infrastructure and quickly mobilise capital to drive energy access and sustainability.

Elsewhere, ARISE Integrated Industrial Platforms (IIP), a collaboration led by AFC, has become one of Africa’s leading industrial infrastructure platforms, operating across more than 14 countries. To date, it has deployed nearly US$2bn in infrastructure, while enabling over 50,000 jobs through its industrial ecosystem model.

In 2025, ARISE IIP completed a landmark US$700mn capital raise, including both primary and secondary components, making it one of the largest private infrastructure transactions in Africa to date. The transaction welcomed Vision Invest — a leading Saudi infrastructure investment and development company — as a new institutional shareholder, joining AFC, Equitane, and FEDA (the impact investment arm of Afreximbank) in the ownership base. The deal also marked a successful partial exit for AFC, underscoring its ability to crowd in private capital and recycle finance into new transformative projects.

This capital infusion will support ARISE IIP’s continued expansion and the deepening of green, inclusive industrial ecosystems across Africa.

In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, AFC provided a US$350mn senior loan to support

the expansion of the Kamoa-Kakula Copper Complex—one of the world’s greenest copper mines. The project contributed around 4% of the country’s GDP in 2023, and approximately 91% of its workforce is Congolese, offering a strong model for sustainable and inclusive natural resource development.

One of the Corporation’s most ambitious undertakings is the Zambia–Lobito Rail Corridor: an 830km greenfield railway connecting Zambia to Angola’s Lobito Port. This project, once complete, will reduce transit times by half and unlock an estimated US$3.3bn in economic value.

PIONEERING CLIMATE-RESILIENT INFRASTRUCTURE

Recognising the dual challenge of development and climate change, AFC launched AFC Capital Partners and its flagship Infrastructure Climate Resilient Fund (ICRF)—a US$750mn blended finance vehicle to accelerate investment in lowcarbon, climate-proof infrastructure. To date, the ICRF has secured over US$400mn in commitments from international and regional partners.

The Fund aims to support over 760MW of new renewable capacity, bring clean power to 6.5

million people, and mitigate 24 million tonnes of CO2 emissions. In parallel, AFC continues to innovate with green bonds and carbon-linked instruments to help global investors finance Africa’s energy transition.

Climate resilience is increasingly built into every stage of AFC’s project planning. New investment proposals are assessed against physical and transitional climate risk scenarios, and environmental sustainability is systematically embedded into every stage of project design, construction, and operation.

FINANCIAL STRENGTH THAT ATTRACTS CAPITAL AFC’s operational and financial performance remains robust. Following a record 2024 where the Corporation generated over US$1.1bn in revenue and US$400mn comprehensive income, 2025 has pivoted toward capital mobilisation as a defining theme.

This year, AFC achieved a series of landmark fundraising milestones that cement its reputation as Africa’s premier capital mobilisation platform. In January 2025, the Corporation issued its debut US$500mn hybrid bond, setting a benchmark for African issuers, which was significantly oversubscribed and drew strong participation from investors across Europe, Asia, and the Middle

East. The momentum continued in February with the signing of a US$350mn Murabaha facility with leading Middle Eastern banks, advancing AFC’s strategy to diversify funding sources and deepen ties with Islamic finance markets. In June, AFC secured a US€250mn 10-year term loan from Cassa Depositi e Prestiti, guaranteed by SACE, to support renewable energy and infrastructure projects. This was followed in July by a AED 937.5mn (approximately US$255mn) sustainability-linked loan from UAE banks, structured to reward environmental performance. The fundraising drive culminated in September with the closing of a US$1.5bn syndicated loan, the largest in AFC’s history, attracting lenders from across the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and Europe. Together, these transactions illustrate AFC’s growing sophistication in mobilising diverse pools of capital at scale.

Further momentum was built through the Africa Saving for Growth Programme, launched at the 2025 UN General Assembly under the Global Africa Business Initiative, which aims to mobilise US$1.17tn of institutional savings into longterm infrastructure across the continent.

EMPOWERING SOVEREIGNS AND MARKETS

Beyond deploying its own balance sheet, AFC supports sovereign and corporate issuers in

accessing capital markets. In 2024, it served as Joint Lead Manager for Ecobank’s US$400mn Eurobond, the first by a Sub-Saharan bank since 2021. AFC also supported Egypt’s second Samurai bond issuance in November 2023, a private placement offering worth JPY 75bn (approximately US$50mn), acting as reguarantor to SMBC.

These transactions demonstrate AFC’s vital role in helping African issuers tap both global and domestic liquidity through structured, creditenhanced instruments. They also reflect growing global investor appetite for emerging market infrastructure—when paired with the right partners and governance.

AFC is also working with central banks and capital market authorities to deepen regional financial markets, improve liquidity, and build tools such as infrastructure credit guarantee schemes that can derisk long-term investment.

LOOKING AHEAD

With Africa’s population projected to double by 2050, and infrastructure demand intensifying, the case for institutions like AFC has never been stronger. As President & CEO Samaila Zubairu notes: “Africa does not need charity. It needs capital. It has bankable projects. What it needs are trusted partners to execute and scale what it already has.”

By blending commercial discipline with a development mandate, AFC continues to redefine what’s possible in African infrastructure— building not only roads, ports, and power plants, but also economic sovereignty, climate resilience, and inclusive prosperity.

Its journey is far from over. AFC is actively exploring opportunities in digital infrastructure, clean energy storage, and regional connectivity projects that align with Africa’s Agenda 2063. With innovation, partnerships, and patient capital, AFC is poised to remain one of Africa’s most important institutions for decades to come. i

> The Green Gold Rush: How Africa is Forging a New Path in the Climate Crisis

As the world grapples with a transition to a low-carbon future, Africa is emerging not just as a victim of climate change, but as a potential leader. With vast renewable-energy resources and critical minerals, the continent is positioned to redefine its role on the global stage, though significant challenges remain.

For decades, the narrative surrounding Africa and climate change has centred on vulnerability—parched land, devastating floods and communities displaced by ecological shifts. That reality is undeniable: many regions are warming faster than the global average. Yet a different story is taking shape. Africa is not merely a casualty; it is becoming a pivotal actor in the response, home to the renewable resources and minerals the world needs to build a low-carbon economy.

Two forces drive this shift. The first is extraordinary renewable-energy potential across sun-rich deserts, windy coasts and rift-valley geothermal fields. The second is a geological endowment of critical minerals essential to electric vehicles (EVs), power grids and cleanenergy technologies.

POWERING THE TRANSITION

The solar resource of the Sahara and Kalahari, paired with reliable wind in the Horn of Africa and along the Atlantic coast, gives the continent a structural energy advantage. Technical assessments suggest Africa could generate on the order of 1.2 terawatts of solar power— comparable to today’s global electricity demand. Flagship schemes underscore the scope: the Grand Inga project in the Democratic Republic of Congo, if fully realised, would rank as the world’s largest hydropower facility, while geothermal developments along the East African Rift already demonstrate cost-competitive baseload potential.

For policymakers, the opportunity is twofold: electrify economies that still face widespread energy poverty and, over time, export green power and green molecules to regional neighbours and global markets. Cross-border interconnectors, upgraded transmission and deeper regional power pools will be decisive in turning potential into bankable, dispatchable supply.

THE MINERAL ADVANTAGE—AND ITS PARADOX

The clean-energy transition is materialsintensive. Batteries need lithium, nickel, cobalt and graphite; wind and solar expansion demands copper, manganese and rare-earth elements. Africa’s role is central. The Democratic Republic of Congo supplies much of the world’s cobalt;

"The clean-energy transition is materialsintensive. Batteries need lithium, nickel, cobalt and graphite; wind and solar expansion demands copper, manganese and rare-earth elements."

Zimbabwe and Namibia host significant lithium deposits; Zambia and the DRC remain vital for copper; Mozambique and Madagascar mine graphite; South Africa anchors platinum-group metals used in fuel cells and catalytic processes.

This bounty presents a paradox. Properly managed, it can finance infrastructure, education and health, catalysing a new era of prosperity. Mismanaged, it risks repeating familiar pitfalls: environmental harm, conflict and thin local benefit. The task is to ensure the “green gold rush” rewrites the script.

MOVING UP THE VALUE CHAIN

For too long, African economies have exported raw materials while importing expensive finished goods. A growing policy consensus argues for capturing more value at home. That means building processing capacity for battery-grade chemicals; refining copper and aluminium; and manufacturing components such as wiring, transformers, motors and battery packs. It also means developing inputs—sulphate, separator films, casings and control software—that deepen industrial ecosystems and create skilled employment.

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is central to this vision. A unified market of 1.3 billion people can attract investment at scale, while harmonised standards and rules of origin make regional value chains viable. Efficient border posts, upgraded rail and ports, and digital customs systems would allow parts and sub-assemblies to move seamlessly between countries, stitching together a genuinely continental manufacturing base.

FINANCING A JUST PATHWAY

Ambition meets a hard constraint: finance. Despite sizeable pledges for climate action, funding flows to Africa remain slow, costly and often conditional. High debt burdens crowd out public investment, and currency volatility raises the price of imported equipment. Reform of multilateral development banks, expanded use of guarantees and local-currency lending, and clearer pipelines of bankable projects are needed to reduce risk and mobilise private capital.

Climate justice sits alongside finance. The world asks Africa to supply the minerals that enable decarbonisation, yet sometimes expects identical emissions trajectories to those of rich countries with a century of industrial output behind them. A just transition recognises the right to use domestic gas and other resources to tackle energy poverty and to power early-stage industrialisation—responsibly, transparently and on a phased pathway aligned with long-term climate goals. Fair, high-integrity carbon markets and predictable border-adjustment regimes can support this shift without imposing hidden penalties on developing exporters.

AGENCY, INNOVATION AND PARTNERSHIP

Africa’s new stance is about agency. The continent is no longer content to be a passive recipient of aid or a supplier of ore. It seeks genuine partnership in setting standards and fair access to markets. Technology transfer, open licensing for key decarbonisation tools and collaborative R&D can accelerate diffusion. Public–private partnerships that align investor returns with development outcomes will be vital for grid upgrades, green-hydrogen pilots and climate-resilient water systems.

Delivery requires a holistic approach. Climateresilient infrastructure is essential: droughttolerant crops, climate-smart irrigation, expanded cold chains, resilient roads and flood earlywarning systems. Innovation matters: mini-grids and pay-as-you-go solar, efficient cookstoves, precision agriculture and mobile platforms that give farmers and small firms real-time weather, pricing and agronomic advice. Skills are the connective tissue. Technical colleges and universities should align curricula with energy, mining, chemicals and advanced manufacturing,

while visa and qualification reciprocity can speed the movement of specialised talent across borders.

Cities will be decisive. Africa’s urban population is expected to double by mid-century, and today’s planning choices will lock in emissions and resilience for decades. Transit-oriented growth, green building codes, efficient ports and logistics, and nature-based solutions such as mangrove and wetland restoration can reduce climate risk while improving liveability and productivity. Industrial parks co-located with renewable generation and water recycling can cut costs and foster circular-economy clusters.

GOVERNANCE, STANDARDS AND TRUST

Moving up the value chain demands predictable rules. Transparent licensing, communitybenefit agreements and rigorous environmental safeguards can crowd in investment while avoiding extractive patterns of the past. Regional alignment—from battery-grade specifications to recycling protocols—would reduce compliance costs and enable scale. Robust traceability systems are equally important to assure consumers that “green” products are produced

responsibly, with strong labour and safety standards.

Institutional capacity underpins everything. Independent regulators for power and mining, credible dispute-resolution mechanisms and data transparency improve investor confidence and help domestic firms compete. Public procurement can kick-start markets when tied to local-content goals, open competition and clear value-for-money auditing.

CAPITAL INSTRUMENTS THAT WORK

New instruments can bridge gaps. Blendedfinance structures that use concessional funds to de-risk early stages, partial-credit guarantees that lower borrowing costs and local-currency lending that matches domestic revenues to liabilities will all help. High-integrity carbon markets can support restoration and avoideddeforestation projects—provided communities capture a meaningful share of proceeds and standards prevent greenwashing. Sovereignrisk tools, from catastrophe-contingent clauses to debt-for-climate swaps, can free fiscal space after shocks and channel savings into adaptation.

At the project level, fundamentals still matter: pipelines of well-prepared projects, standardised contracts and consistent regulation. Development partners can back feasibility studies and early works, and embed gender and inclusion from the outset so that benefits are widely shared.

A CONTINENTAL PROPOSITION

The world’s climate goals will not be achieved without Africa’s success. The continent offers sunshine, wind and minerals to build the infrastructure of a low-carbon future—and a youthful, entrepreneurial population to operate it. What it needs is partnership on fair terms: patient capital, market access, technology transfer and a seat at the rule-making table.

The emerging story is one of agency, innovation and self-determination. Africa is choosing to forge its own path—seizing the opportunity to help shape a more equitable global order. The world needs Africa’s resources to meet climate goals; Africa needs the world’s partnership to ensure this journey yields shared prosperity rather than renewed extraction. The stakes could not be higher, and the time to act together is now. i

> The Deepest Roots: A Journey to the Cradle of Humanity

From the ancient fossils of the Great Rift Valley to the subtle genetic threads that connect us all, the scientific evidence is clear: humanity began in Africa. This is not just a historical curiosity but a living story, one that continues to inform our understanding of what it means to be human.

The idea of Africa as the “cradle of humanity” has moved from bold hypothesis to cornerstone of modern science. It is a powerful narrative supported by an extensive body of evidence from archaeology, genetics and palaeontology. Crucially, this is not a tale of a single origin point but a continent-spanning epic of evolution, adaptation and dispersal that shaped every person alive today.

The quest for our origins has led scientists to some of the most remote and challenging environments on Earth. The Great Rift Valley—a vast geological trench running through Eastern Africa—has been a treasure trove of fossil discovery. Sites such as Olduvai Gorge in Tanzania and the Turkana Basin in Kenya have yielded remains of our earliest ancestors, including Australopithecus afarensis—most famously represented by the “Lucy” skeleton. These ancient hominins, dating back millions of years, provide vivid insight into the first steps towards bipedalism and the emergence of early tool-making.

More recent discoveries have widened the lens, challenging any notion of a single “Garden of Eden” confined to East Africa. The 2017 identification of Homo sapiens fossils at Jebel Irhoud in Morocco—dated to around 315,000 years—pushed back the timeline for our species and underscored that human evolution was a multi-regional process within Africa. Rather than appearing in one locale, our species likely emerged within a network of interlinked populations across the continent, exchanging genes and ideas over deep time.

Genetics complements and strengthens this archaeological record. Analyses of mitochondrial DNA trace the ancestry of every human on Earth back to a female lineage in Africa—often dubbed

“Mitochondrial Eve”. The data also reveal that the greatest share of human genetic diversity resides within Africa, a clear indicator of long and continuous habitation. As one moves farther from Africa, genetic diversity declines, leaving a discernible trail from ancient migrations—a biological “breadcrumb” path that echoes our journeys.

These journeys, known collectively as the “Out of Africa” dispersals, were not single, simple departures. Research indicates a complex series of movements beginning as early as 120,000 years ago, with a larger, more successful wave around 60,000 years ago. Climate oscillations played a pivotal role. Changes in rainfall and vegetation periodically transformed parts of the Sahara into green corridors—transit routes that enabled populations to move from Africa into the Middle East and beyond. As climates shifted again, groups became isolated, and those separations fostered the genetic and physical adaptations that underpin the diversity seen in human populations today.

Africa’s centrality in our story is also one of innovation. The continent is the birthplace of the Middle Stone Age, a period of remarkable technological and cultural advance. From Blombos Cave in South Africa to Olorgesailie in Kenya, archaeologists have uncovered evidence for complex behaviours long before they appear elsewhere: the use of pigments for art and body decoration; finely made projectile points; heat-treated stone; and the early exploitation of marine resources. Such findings show ancestors who were not merely surviving but thriving—organising socially, encoding meaning symbolically and adapting deftly to varied environments.

This deep history carries profound implications for the present. It reminds us that humanity shares a common origin and that, at our core, we are all African. Recognising a single, interconnected ancestry challenges divisive narratives and encourages a broader ethic of respect. The modern human story is one family’s story—diverse in expression yet united by origin.

In a world still grappling with questions of race, identity and belonging, the scientific fact of common African origin offers a powerful corrective. Every culture, every innovation and every individual is part of a journey that began on the same continent. Ongoing discoveries—from newly dated fossils to whole-genome studies— are not only illuminating our past but also shaping our future by clarifying what we share as a species: ingenuity, adaptability and a capacity for cooperation.

Africa’s role in this narrative is dynamic, not static. As techniques improve—radiometric dating, ancient DNA, isotopic analysis—new chapters continue to emerge from sites across the continent. Each find refines timelines, reveals previously unseen connections and underscores the continent’s diversity of habitats and populations over hundreds of thousands of years. Far from closing the book, science is revealing an ever richer, more nuanced account of how modern humans arose and spread.

To speak of the “cradle of humanity” is, therefore, to acknowledge both origin and continuity. The landscapes that nurtured early hominins—rift valleys, savannahs, coasts— are living laboratories where questions about cognition, culture and resilience are still being explored. The same environments that once offered corridors for dispersal now host research that links past climate shifts to present challenges, reminding us that adaptation is part of our inheritance.

Ultimately, this is a story that belongs to everyone. It invites humility in the face of deep time and complexity, and it invites solidarity in the face of modern division. The deepest roots of our species lie in African ground; the branches now span the globe. Understanding that shared beginning does not diminish cultural difference—it places it within a common frame, fostering a sense of connectedness and responsibility. Our origins in Africa are not merely a matter of historical record; they are a living heritage, shaping how we see ourselves and how we might, together, shape the future. i

> Africa's Digital Revolution: A Blueprint for Leapfrogging Development

Far from being mere consumers of technology, African nations are leveraging innovation to address their most pressing challenges. From transforming finance to revolutionising agriculture and enhancing governance, a new generation of tech-savvy entrepreneurs is building a future of their own design.

Africa’s twenty-first-century story is being written in code as much as in brick and mortar. While mature markets iterate on legacy infrastructure, the continent is using digital tools to leapfrog old constraints and re-architect essential services at speed. A youthful, mobile-first population, rapidly improving connectivity and an increasingly supportive policy environment are converging to produce home-grown solutions at continental scale. The momentum is clearest in three domains—fintech, agri-tech and digital governance—yet the wider ecosystem of talent, capital and infrastructure is just as pivotal. Together, these forces are reshaping how people pay and save, plant and sell, vote and verify— and, crucially, how value is created and retained within African economies.

THE FINTECH FRONTIER: FROM ACCESS TO SCALE Fintech has been the sharp end of Africa’s digital transformation. Confronted with large unbanked and underbanked populations, entrepreneurs identified opportunity where incumbents saw only risk and high distribution costs. The earliest breakthrough—mobile money—reframed banking as a communications service. Platforms such as Kenya’s M-Pesa normalised peer-topeer transfers, bill payment and micro-credit via basic handsets, extending formal financial participation to tens of millions who had never set foot in a branch. What began as inclusion has evolved into an operating system for everyday life and micro-enterprise.

A second wave has broadened the stack. Payment gateways and merchant tools allow small retailers to accept digital payments and reconcile accounts; cross-border remittance platforms compress fees and settlement times; and agent networks bring cash-in/cash-out access to lastmile communities. Digital lenders, armed with alternative data—from airtime use to repayment histories—underwrite thin-file borrowers with smaller tickets and faster decisions. Insurtech firms are unbundling cover into bite-sized, eventbased products that can be embedded at the point of need, from crop failure to hospital cash.

African fintech “unicorns” have emerged from this ferment, signalling investor confidence and the exportability of African design. Their growth

"While mature markets iterate on legacy infrastructure, the continent is using digital tools to leapfrog old constraints and re-architect essential services at speed."

reflects a distinctive advantage: products are built for intermittency (power and data), for lowcost devices and for informal retail realities. The next chapter is about depth and resilience— moving beyond payments into savings, pensions and credit at maturities that support household security and business growth. It is also about interoperability: open-banking standards, instant-payment rails and harmonised KYC can reduce friction, curb fraud and cut costs across borders.

Challenges remain. Rural connectivity gaps and device affordability still limit reach; consumer protection frameworks must keep pace with innovation; and the gender gap in financial inclusion persists, reflecting social norms as much as infrastructure. Even so, the arc is favourable. Public–private partnerships that expand fibre, share towers and modernise ID systems will compound gains; so will prudential regulations that encourage experimentation while safeguarding stability.

AGRI-TECH: SEEDING PRODUCTIVITY AND CLIMATE RESILIENCE

Agriculture anchors livelihoods across the continent yet faces intensifying climate stress, fragmented value chains and information asymmetry. Agri-tech ventures are addressing these frictions with practical, mobile-first tools that lift yields, stabilise incomes and reduce waste. Advisory platforms combine satellite imagery, localised weather and soil data to provide tailored guidance on when to plant, irrigate and apply inputs. Where extension services are thin, voice and vernacular SMS deliver advice at scale, while call-centre agronomists offer human backup.

Market-linkage apps match farmers to buyers, improving price discovery and cutting reliance on multiple intermediaries. Digital marketplaces, coupled with transparent logistics, enable aggregation, quality assurance and on-time delivery—conditions that unlock institutional demand from processors and retailers. Financing, historically the tightest bottleneck,

is being unlocked by alternative scoring models that use agronomic and transaction data to derisk seasonal credit, input financing and asset leasing for tractors, cold rooms and solar pumps. Insurance is evolving too: index-based products trigger payouts when rainfall or temperature crosses critical thresholds, protecting cash flow without costly claims adjustment.

Hardware complements software. Drones and low-cost sensors monitor crop health and optimise water use; solar-powered cold chains extend shelf life and reduce post-harvest losses that can exceed a third of production in some staples. Pilot projects use blockchain to record provenance and handling conditions, rewarding quality and enabling premium pricing in export markets. These interventions do more than raise productivity; they professionalise smallholder agriculture, integrate producers into formal supply chains and build resilience against climate volatility.

Execution, however, is gritty. Last-mile distribution of inputs and devices is expensive; farmer onboarding requires trust and patient fieldwork; and linguistic diversity complicates content delivery. Success often hinges on partnerships—with co-operatives, offtakers, microfinance institutions and local governments—to align incentives and aggregate demand. Policy matters as well: predictable seed and fertiliser rules, open market information, and investment in rural roads and electrification are the scaffolding on which agri-tech can scale.

DIGITAL GOVERNANCE: BUILDING TRUST, SPEED AND INCLUSION

States are digitising to deliver public services with less friction, greater transparency and lower leakage. “GovTech” platforms consolidate thousands of interactions—tax filing, licence renewals, land records, company incorporation— into unified portals. The benefits are immediate: fewer queues, fewer intermediaries and clearer audit trails. For small firms, days saved at a window become days spent serving customers.

Digital identity is the linchpin. Robust, biometric-anchored IDs—linked, with consent, to payments and registries—allow governments to authenticate recipients, rationalise subsidies and target social protection during shocks. Interoperable ID systems also enable private innovation: KYC is standardised, account opening is faster and fraud is easier to detect. The prize is a virtuous circle in which citizens trust digital channels because they are reliable and responsive, and agencies improve because feedback loops are shorter and harder to ignore.

E-procurement and open-data mandates deepen accountability. When tenders, budgets and performance dashboards are published in machine-readable formats, civil society and businesses can scrutinise outcomes and propose improvements. Geospatial tools track infrastructure delivery; civic apps route service requests and publish resolutions. The public sector’s own transformation—digital records, secure cloud, cyber hygiene and skills—is therefore as important as citizen-facing portals.

Risks are real and must be managed. Data protection, consent, redress mechanisms and cybersecurity are not afterthoughts but prerequisites. Inclusive design is essential: services should function on basic devices, in low bandwidth and in local languages; assisteddigital channels and community agents ensure those without smartphones are not left behind. Where these principles are applied, digital governance becomes more than technology—it becomes state capability, upgraded.

THE ENABLERS: TALENT, INFRASTRUCTURE, CAPITAL AND RULES

Africa’s digital economy rests on four mutually reinforcing pillars. First is talent. A young population is entering the workforce as global demand for software, data and product skills accelerates. Coding bootcamps, university partnerships and remote work are expanding opportunities, while diaspora links create mentorship and market access. To sustain momentum, curricula must align with employer needs, and gender inclusion must be an explicit objective.

Second is infrastructure. Progress has been rapid—submarine cables, carrier-neutral data centres, expanding 4G/5G footprints—but

affordability and reliability still vary. Spectrum policy, infrastructure-sharing and incentives for rural coverage can stretch each dollar of capex. Power is the silent partner: mini-grids, rooftop solar and grid upgrades reduce downtime and support data-centre economics.

Third is capital. Venture funding has grown, but remains cyclical and concentrated. Blendedfinance vehicles, outcome-based contracts and local-currency facilities can crowd in private investors and smooth foreign-exchange risk. Domestic institutional investors—pension funds and insurers—represent untapped sources of patient capital if regulatory frameworks evolve to match asset–liability profiles.

Fourth is regulation. Clear, technology-neutral rules encourage innovation while protecting consumers and the integrity of the system. Proportional licensing for digital lenders and payment institutions, sandboxes for new models, competition policies that keep markets contestable and cross-border harmonisation under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) can all accelerate scale. The AfCFTA’s promise—rules of origin, e-commerce protocols and data-governance alignment—is particularly relevant for startups that think regionally from day one.

INCLUSION BY DESIGN: CLOSING THE GAPS

Leapfrogging must be inclusive to be durable. Three gaps require deliberate action. The rural access gap demands investment in lastmile connectivity, off-grid power and device affordability schemes. The usage gap—where coverage exists but adoption lags—calls for digital literacy, vernacular content and trustbuilding through agents. The gender gap, persistent across finance and connectivity,

needs targeted measures: ID enrollment drives for women, safety features in apps, childcare support in training programmes and procurement policies that elevate women-led firms.

Safeguards complete the picture. Clear data rights, consent standards, cyber-incident reporting and independent oversight build confidence. Interoperability reduces lock-in and switches the emphasis from walled gardens to shared rails. When these principles are embedded, digital markets tend to become more competitive, prices fall and quality rises.

A CONTINENTAL PROPOSITION

Africa’s digital revolution is not an imitation of foreign models but a blueprint tuned to local realities: intermittent power, informal retail, cash economies and immense geographic diversity. Solutions that thrive under these constraints often prove robust enough to travel, turning African firms into exporters of know-how and platforms. The economic payoff is multidimensional: higher productivity, formalisation without heavy-handedness, better risk pooling, and new export categories—from payments and identity tech to logistics software and creative content.

The work ahead is exacting—laying fibre and laws, training coders and civil servants, designing products and protections. Yet the direction is set. Fintech is deepening inclusion and capital formation; agri-tech is raising yields and resilience; GovTech is rebuilding trust in public services. With the right mix of investment, standards and partnerships, Africa can continue to leapfrog—translating ingenuity into broadbased development and demonstrating, once again, that the fastest path forward is not always the most trodden one. i

The Hardest Choice: Is the Natural Diamond Industry’s Sparkle Fading Forever?

For a century, natural diamonds have traded on rarity, tradition and the promise of permanence. Lab-grown stones—chemically identical, ethically appealing and markedly cheaper—now threaten to redraw the map of a multi-billion-dollar market, testing whether geology’s romance can withstand technology’s precision.

The diamond business has long dealt in two currencies: carbon and mystique. A natural stone is the product of deep time—formed under crushing pressure billions of years ago, heaved towards the surface by volcanic force, and cut to reveal light that appears, to many, eternal. Marketing elevated this geology into ideology. De Beers’ “A diamond is forever” did more than sell engagement rings; it fused a product with a social ritual, anchoring value in symbolism as much as scarcity.

The industry’s most disruptive rival is not a new kimberlite pipe but a reactor. Lab-grown diamonds (LGDs) are not simulants; they are genuine diamonds, with the same crystal lattice, refractive brilliance and physical properties as mined stones. Two production technologies— high-pressure, high-temperature (HPHT) and chemical vapour deposition (CVD)—can deliver high-clarity, large-carat stones in weeks, not aeons. Crucially, they do so at a fraction of the price.

This is more than a pricing skirmish. It is a challenge to the foundations of value. If rarity underwrites price, what happens when supply can be scaled? Market signals are already loud. In major retail channels, lab-grown stones are now a meaningful share of engagement ring sales; survey work in the United States indicates that, in some cohorts, a majority of rings feature lab-grown centres. The drivers go beyond affordability. A younger, values-led consumer base is attentive to provenance, labour standards and environmental footprint. LGDs, marketed as conflict-free with lower physical impacts, sit neatly within that frame.

The comparison is not unilateral. Natural diamonds carry a heavy history and a mixed present. The Kimberley Process has reduced— but not eliminated—the flow of conflict stones. Large-scale mining has improved on safety and environmental management, yet it remains land, water- and energy-intensive. Communities dependent on mining face cycles of boom and

bust. Lab production, for its part, is energy-hungry; in regions with carbon-heavy grids, emissions can be material. But in the public mind, the absence of open-pit scars and the possibility of renewablepowered reactors are persuasive. The narrative advantage presently belongs to the lab.

Price differentials are stark. A two-carat labgrown stone can retail for a small fraction of a comparable natural gem. That opens the category to new buyers and larger looks—but it also compresses pricing power for small and midsized natural stones, the workhorses of the trade. As production yields improve and lab prices drift lower, commoditisation looms for the mid-market of natural goods. The investment-grade top tier— exceptional colour, clarity and carat—may retain scarcity premia, but the long tail faces margin attrition.

The ideological threat is sharper still. The natural industry’s moat is its story: cosmic time, geological accident, the romance of rarity. Category leaders have doubled down on this, repositioning mined diamonds as “natural wonders”—artifacts of Earth’s history rather than interchangeable products. The pivot aims to shift the frame from product comparison (where LGDs win on price-to-performance) to meaning (where natural stones claim a unique heritage). Museums, provenance certificates, mine-tomarket storytelling and origin-specific branding (Botswana diamonds, Canadian Arctic stones) are all enlisted to reinforce that aura.

The strategy has logic—but also risk. A generation fluent in greenwash and sceptical of legacy narratives may view the romance as construct rather than truth. For many younger buyers, ethics, transparency and personal expression sit above tradition. “Bigger, cleaner, fairly made— and affordable” is a powerful proposition. If the symbolic work of an engagement ring can be performed by an LGD without compromise in beauty, the case for paying a multiple for geology becomes harder to defend beyond the top end or specific cultural contexts.

The macro ripple effects extend far beyond retail counters. Resource-reliant economies— Botswana, Namibia, parts of Canada and Russia— are exposed. Botswana’s development success story is inseparable from diamonds: government revenues, export earnings, infrastructure and public services have all been funded by the sector. A secular squeeze on natural diamond pricing, particularly in smalls and near-gems, pressures mine viability, employment and fiscal stability. Producer countries are racing to add value domestically—establishing cutting and polishing hubs, building jewellery manufacturing capacity, and negotiating tougher sales agreements that secure more local beneficiation. Diversification strategies—tourism, agriculture, financial services—are urgent, but they take time and capital.

Midstream players—the cutters, polishers and wholesalers—face a different squeeze. Their business runs on thin margins and working capital. Volatile rough prices, changing assortments and the need to carry both natural and lab inventories complicate cash cycles. Some are pivoting to services (design, privatelabel jewellery, e-commerce fulfilment) and to origin-verified natural goods, while embracing lab-grown for volume. Retailers, meanwhile, are segmenting: positioning natural as heirloom and investment, lab as fashion and value—or offering both and letting the consumer choose.

Where does equilibrium lie? A plausible future is bifurcation. At the apex, rare natural stones— large carats in D–F colours, high clarities, traceable origins—retain and even enhance status value. These will appeal to collectors, wealth preservers and luxury connoisseurs, supported by certifications, digital passports and secure custody services. Below that, the centre of gravity shifts towards lab-grown, which becomes the default for style, scale and price. In this scenario, the natural market shrinks in volume, elevates in average value, and competes on provenance and meaning rather than mainstream share.

To make that future investable rather than aspirational, the natural industry must modernise on three fronts.

First, transparency. Provenance, labour standards and environmental performance must be demonstrable, not merely asserted. End-to-end traceability—blockchain passports where useful, but more importantly audited chain-of-custody— will be the minimum price of entry for credibility. Independent reporting on water use, land rehabilitation and emissions will differentiate responsible producers and protect access to premium channels.

Second, innovation in product and storytelling. Natural cannot win on equivalence; it must win on distinction. That means elevating origin

stories (a named mine with community benefits), celebrating unique inclusions as “nature’s fingerprint”, and crafting designs that integrate narrative—limited collections tied to specific geologies or histories. Luxury fashion has long converted provenance into value; fine jewellery can do the same, authentically.

Third, alignment with modern values. Partnerships with producer nations that expand local value-add and visible community gains will matter to buyers. So will measurable progress on emissions—electrified pits, renewable power, and nature-based offsets where integrity is high. The goal is not perfection but proof of intent and improvement.

Lab-grown leaders, for their part, will professionalise. Power-source disclosure, third-party life-cycle assessments and quality consistency will separate serious manufacturers from commodity output. Brand building will migrate from “cheaper same” to creative identity—design, colour, fancy cuts, playful scale. Retailers will lean into omni-channel experiences, allowing consumers to configure rings with natural or lab stones, compare looks and prices transparently, and understand the implications of each choice.

For investors, the filters are clear. In natural: low-cost producers with long-life assets, robust

ESG credentials, secure sales agreements and exposure to the top-end mix. In lab: efficient producers with access to low-carbon power, strong retail partnerships and brand equity beyond price. For midstream: balance-sheet discipline, service diversification and technology adoption (automation, AI grading, digital inventory).

The industry’s social licence will also be tested. Regulators and standards bodies are tightening definitions and disclosures to prevent consumer confusion. Clear labelling and honest marketing are in everyone’s interest; obfuscation will invite backlash. Ultimately, trust—earned through clarity and conduct—will decide where value accrues.

Is the natural diamond’s sparkle fading forever? Not necessarily. It is, however, refracting into segments. The stone that symbolised a single story for a century must now coexist with another, equally brilliant narrative born in a lab. For many buyers, conscience, scale and cost will tip the balance towards lab-grown. For others, the romance of deep time, verifiable origin and cultural ritual will sustain natural’s appeal. The hardest choice is no longer solitaire versus halo; it is geology versus technology. The market will make room for both. The task for leaders in each camp is to meet the consumer where values, beauty and price converge—honestly, transparently and with craft worthy of the light they seek to capture. i

Timeless Lessons from Business Giants

Great business books are more than just guides to profit; they are sources of profound insight, offering a window into the minds of history's most successful leaders and innovators.

In a world drowning in data, where algorithms promise to predict every trend and AI-driven platforms offer to automate every task, it might seem oldfashioned to turn to a physical book for business advice. Yet, the enduring power of great business writing lies not in its ability to provide a fleeting hack or a trendy strategy, but in its capacity to inspire, challenge, and fundamentally reshape our thinking. The books that stand the test of time, from Dale Carnegie’s timeless guide to human relations to Jim Collins's rigorous analysis of corporate excellence, do so because they are rooted in universal principles that transcend technology and economic cycles.

The very act of engaging with these texts is an investment in personal and professional growth. A great business book offers a direct line to the wisdom of a master. It is an opportunity to sit at the feet of titans like Stephen R. Covey, Eric Ries, and Daniel Kahneman, absorbing the lessons they distilled from years of painstaking research, hard-won experience, or groundbreaking thought. This isn't about memorising facts; it's about internalising a new way of seeing the world. The best writers provide not just a list of actions but a new mental model. They teach us how to think, not just what to think.

Take, for example, Stephen R. Covey’s The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People. It's a book about personal leadership, but its real power is in the paradigm shift it proposes. It teaches that before we can lead others, we must lead ourselves, moving from dependence to independence. This principle is a wellspring of inspiration, encouraging us to take responsibility for our own lives and define our purpose. Similarly, Eric Ries’s The Lean Startup doesn’t just offer a set of rules for a new business; it redefines the very nature of entrepreneurship as a scientific endeavour. It inspires a generation of founders to embrace failure as a learning tool, transforming a high-risk gamble into a series of manageable experiments.

To maximise the benefits of reading these books, one must approach them not as a

passive consumer of information but as an active participant. Here is some advice on how to get the most out of them:

• Don't just read—study. Treat the book like a course. Highlight key passages, make notes in the margins, and use a journal to reflect on how the principles apply to your own work and life.

• Apply the principles immediately. The ideas in these books are designed to be put into practice. If a book talks about a new way to approach a meeting, try it in your next one. If it suggests a framework for decision-making, use it the next time you face a tough choice.

• Discuss the ideas with others. The concepts in these books are excellent conversation starters. Talk to colleagues, mentors, or friends about what you're learning. Explaining a concept to someone else is one of the best ways to deepen your own understanding.

• Revisit them periodically. A great book is not a one-time read. The lessons will resonate differently as you progress in your career. What you learn from Good to Great as a new manager will be different from what you learn as a CEO.

For those aspiring to write the next great business book, the lessons are equally clear. The field is saturated with books that promise overnight success or provide a collection of rehashed, superficial tips. To stand out, a writer must go deeper. Here is some advice on what to concentrate on and what to avoid:

• Concentrate on a single, powerful idea. The best books are not a collection of loosely connected thoughts. They are built around one central, compelling thesis. Jim Collins’s Good to Great is about the disciplined process of sustained excellence. Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow is about the two systems that govern our minds. A strong, singular idea provides clarity and impact.

• Focus on principles, not tactics. While tactical advice is useful, it quickly becomes obsolete. A book about using a specific social media platform will be irrelevant in a few years. A book about the timeless principles of human behaviour, like Dale Carnegie’s, will be relevant for generations.

• Use research and data to validate your claims. The most credible business books are

built on a foundation of rigorous research. Whether it's a quantitative study like Collins's or a synthesis of a scientific field like Kahneman's, a strong evidence base gives your work authority and distinguishes it from mere opinion.

• Write with clarity and simplicity. Business concepts can be complex, but great writers make them accessible. Use analogies, stories, and clear prose to explain your ideas. Avoid jargon and academic language where simpler words will do.

• Tell a good story. Humans are wired for narratives. A business book that weaves together compelling case studies, personal anecdotes, and historical examples is far more engaging and memorable than one that just presents a list of bullet points.

What to avoid:

• The "guru" persona. Avoid positioning yourself as a magical expert with all the answers. The best business writers, like Collins and Kahneman, present their work as a journey of discovery. They bring the reader along with them, inviting them to participate in the learning process.

• Overly broad or unoriginal advice. Avoid generic platitudes like "work hard" or "be a good leader." These don't provide any new insight. Your contribution should be a unique framework or a fresh perspective that challenges conventional wisdom.

• Promising a silver bullet. There is no onesize-fits-all solution to business success. Any book that promises guaranteed results or a simple shortcut to wealth should be viewed with scepticism. Honesty about the hard work and complexity involved builds trust with your readers.

In conclusion, the best business books are more than instructional manuals; they are sources of enduring inspiration. They challenge us to think more deeply, act more intentionally, and lead more effectively. For readers, they offer a priceless opportunity for self-improvement. For writers, they set a high bar, reminding them that true impact comes not from telling people what to do, but from teaching them how to see the world differently. i

THE ULTIMATE GUIDE TO SELF-MASTERY >

Stephen R. Covey’s timeless principles offer a path to personal and professional excellence, reminding us that true success is built on character, not just charisma.

Stephen R. Covey's The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People is more than just a business book; it’s a profound philosophy for life. Published in 1989, its principles have transcended fads and technological shifts to remain as relevant today as they were over thirty years ago. In an era dominated by quick fixes and productivity hacks, Covey’s work stands out by offering a holistic, inside-out approach to effectiveness. He argues that genuine success, whether in our professional lives or personal relationships, comes not from external appearances but from a fundamental shift in our character.

Covey's central thesis is the distinction between the "Personality Ethic" and the "Character Ethic." He criticises the modern obsession with public relations and superficial charm—the Personality Ethic—in favour of a return to a more principled approach based on integrity, humility, and courage. These values, he argues, are the bedrock of the Character Ethic and the only true source of sustained effectiveness. The book is structured around a progression of seven habits, each building upon the last to create a powerful framework for personal and interpersonal growth.

The first three habits focus on achieving private victory and moving from dependence to independence. Habit 1: Be Proactive is the foundation. It teaches that we are responsible for our own lives and that our behaviour is a product of our decisions, not our conditions. Instead of reacting to circumstances, a proactive person acts on their own values. This simple but powerful idea puts the reader firmly in control of their own destiny. Habit 2: Begin with the End in Mind encourages us to define our values and life goals before we start working on them. Covey famously uses the analogy of a funeral: what do you want people to say about you when you’re gone? This exercise forces a clarity of purpose that guides all subsequent actions. The third habit, Put First Things First, is the practical application of the first two. It’s a call to prioritise our lives according to our core values, focusing on what’s important rather than what’s merely urgent. This section includes a classic time management matrix that remains a key tool for professionals everywhere.

The next three habits are about public victory, moving from independence to interdependence. Habit 4: Think Win/Win is about finding mutually beneficial solutions in all our interactions. It’s a refreshing alternative to the "win/lose" competitive mindset that dominates much of business. Covey explains that for true, lasting success, both parties must feel they've gained something of

value. Habit 5: Seek First to Understand, Then to Be Understood is arguably one of the most powerful interpersonal skills one can develop. It challenges us to listen with the intent to truly comprehend the other person's perspective, rather than simply preparing our own response. This habit is the key to effective communication and building trust. Habit 6: Synergize brings all the previous habits together, teaching us that the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. It's about combining the strengths of different individuals to create something new and better, a process that relies heavily on respect and creative cooperation.

Finally, Habit 7: Sharpen the Saw is the habit of self-renewal. Covey argues that we must continuously improve ourselves in four key dimensions: physical, mental, spiritual, and social/emotional. This habit acts as a regenerative force, ensuring that we don't burn out and that our effectiveness is sustainable over the long term. This focus on personal well-being is a crucial, often overlooked, element of true success.

While some might find Covey's prose a little dry and his ideas to be common sense, the power of this book lies in its structured, interconnected framework. It’s not a book to be read once and shelved; it’s a guide to be studied and integrated into one’s life. The strength of the 7 Habits is that its wisdom is not tied to a specific industry or a particular time. The principles are universal and enduring, making it a valuable resource for anyone from a student to a CEO. It forces you to look inward and consider what your purpose is before you start rushing toward your goals. In a world of constant change, Covey’s work provides an unshakeable foundation.

Publication Details:

• Title: The7HabitsofHighlyEffectivePeople

• Author: Stephen R. Covey

• First published: 1989

• Publisher: Free Press

• ISBN: 978-0743269513

• Pages: 381

• Genre: Non-fiction, Self-help, Business

• Price (current, approx.): £10.99 (Paperback)

• Availability: Widely available from all major booksellers and online retailers.

THE SCIENCE OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP >

Eric Ries’s landmark book offers a revolutionary approach to building a business by replacing traditional planning with continuous experimentation and validated learning.

In a world where most startups fail, Eric Ries’s The Lean Startup provides a crucial blueprint for survival and success. Published in 2011, this book shifted the paradigm of entrepreneurship from a high-stakes gamble to a manageable scientific process. Ries argues that the traditional business plan—a static, rigid document—is a flawed model for a new venture. Instead, he proposes a methodology rooted in agile development and lean manufacturing, concepts originally from the software and manufacturing industries. The core of his philosophy is to stop guessing what customers want and start building a business on a foundation of validated learning.

At the heart of the lean startup methodology is the Build-Measure-Learn feedback loop. This iterative cycle is designed to accelerate a startup's progress by helping it pivot or persevere.

1. Build: The goal here is not to create a perfect product, but a Minimum Viable Product (MVP). The MVP is the version of a new product that allows a team to collect the maximum amount of validated learning with the least effort. It is a tool for testing assumptions, not a finished product to be released to the market. This approach is a radical departure from the old way of spending years developing a product in secrecy only to find out nobody wants it.

2. Measure: Once the MVP is in the hands of early adopters, the focus shifts to measuring its impact. Ries stresses the importance of using actionable metrics rather than vanity metrics. A vanity metric, such as total app downloads, might look good on a report but tells you nothing about customer behaviour. Actionable metrics, on the other hand, provide direct feedback on whether your experiments are moving your business forward. This data-driven approach removes the bias and guesswork from decision-making.

3. Learn: This is the most critical part of the loop. The data collected from the "measure" phase informs the "learn" phase. The goal is to determine if the current strategy is working. Based on this learning, a team must make a critical decision: to pivot or to persevere. A pivot is a structured course correction designed to test a new fundamental hypothesis about the product, strategy, or engine of growth. It is not a sign of failure but a necessary component of the lean startup model. A pivot is what allows a company to adapt to the reality of the market and move towards a sustainable business model.

Ries's emphasis on continuous innovation and small-batch development has had a profound impact far beyond the world of technology startups.

Large corporations have adopted the principles to create internal innovation labs and to manage new product development. The book's strength lies in its practical advice and its clear, logical framework, which can be applied to almost any business endeavour. It demystifies the chaotic world of entrepreneurship and provides a structured, repeatable process for turning ideas into successful ventures. While some critics argue that the methodology can be too focused on metrics and not enough on vision, the fundamental shift from "just do it" to "test it" has made it an indispensable guide for a new generation of entrepreneurs.

Publication Details:

• Title: The Lean Startup: How Today's Entrepreneurs Use Continuous Innovation to CreateRadicallySuccessfulBusinesses

• Author: Eric Ries

• First published: 2011

• Publisher: Crown Business

• ISBN: 978-0307887894

• Pages: 336

• Genre: Non-fiction, Business, Entrepreneurship

• Price (current, approx.): £13.99 (Paperback)

• Availability: Widely available from all major booksellers and online retailers.

THE FLAWS IN OUR THINKING >

Daniel Kahneman’s masterwork reveals the two systems that drive our decision-making, offering a revolutionary guide to understanding our own minds and the biases that govern them.

Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow is a landmark achievement in the fields of psychology, behavioural economics, and business. Published in 2011, it synthesises decades of his groundbreaking research (much of it with his late collaborator, Amos Tversky) to explain how the human mind makes judgments and choices. Kahneman, a Nobel laureate in Economics, argues that our brains operate using two distinct systems. Understanding these systems is crucial for anyone who wants to make better decisions, negotiate more effectively, or understand consumer behaviour.

System 1 is our "fast" thinking. It's the automatic, intuitive, and emotional part of the brain. System 1 operates effortlessly, providing quick answers to questions like "What is 2+2?" or "Is that person angry?" It’s responsible for the snap judgments and gut feelings that guide much of our daily lives. While incredibly efficient, System 1 is also prone to systematic errors, known as cognitive biases. Kahneman meticulously explores these biases, such as the anchoring effect (relying too heavily on an initial piece of information) and the availability heuristic (overestimating the likelihood of events that are easily recalled).

System 2 is our "slow" thinking. It's the deliberate, logical, and effortful part of the brain. System 2 is engaged when we are solving a complex maths problem, planning a strategy, or consciously choosing what to say. It requires concentration and energy, which is why we often default to System 1. The central theme of the book is the interplay between these two systems. System 2 often accepts the suggestions of System 1 without question, and it's this blind trust that leads to many of our cognitive errors. Kahneman provides compelling evidence that our intuitions, while sometimes accurate, are far less reliable than we think.

For business professionals, the implications of Kahneman’s work are profound. Understanding these biases is key to crafting more effective marketing campaigns, designing user-friendly products, and making smarter investment decisions. The book challenges the traditional economic assumption that humans are rational actors, replacing it with a more realistic and nuanced view of how we actually behave. It teaches us to be more aware of our own mental shortcuts and to recognise them in others.

While the book is dense and requires a thoughtful read, its insights are invaluable. It’s not a book of simple tips or tricks; it’s an intellectual journey

that permanently changes how you view yourself and the world. It provides the vocabulary to discuss and analyse the irrational parts of human behaviour and offers a powerful reminder that our minds are both brilliant and deeply flawed.

Publication Details:

• Title: Thinking,FastandSlow

• Author: Daniel Kahneman

• First published: 2011

• Publisher: Farrar, Straus and Giroux

• ISBN: 978-0374533557

• Pages: 499

• Genre: Non-fiction, Psychology, Behavioural Economics

• Price (current, approx.): £11.99 (Paperback)

• Availability: Widely available from all major booksellers and online retailers.

FROM GOOD TO GREAT: THE FRAMEWORK FOR ENDURING EXCELLENCE >

Jim Collins's landmark study of corporate performance provides a rigorous, research-based framework for transforming a good company into one that achieves and sustains greatness.

Jim Collins's Good to Great is a monumental work of business analysis, challenging the notion that breakthrough success is a matter of luck or charismatic leadership. Published in 2001, the book is the result of a five-year study by Collins and his research team, who meticulously analysed companies that made a definitive leap from average to great and sustained that performance for at least 15 years. They then compared these "good-togreat" companies with a carefully selected set of companies that remained "good" or failed to make a lasting transition. The result is a powerful, evidence-based roadmap built on a series of interconnected concepts.

The findings are often counter-intuitive. Collins argues that the good-to-great companies did not begin their transformations with a grand strategy or a technological leap. Instead, the process was a gradual, cumulative one, built on disciplined people, disciplined thought, and disciplined action.

A key discovery was the concept of Level 5 Leadership. The leaders of the good-to-great companies were not the celebrity CEOs with outsized egos. Instead, they were a paradoxical blend of personal humility and fierce professional will. These leaders were ambitious, but their ambition was for the company and its enduring success, not for personal glory. They were modest and quiet, yet they possessed an unwavering resolve to do whatever was necessary to achieve long-term greatness. This finding fundamentally challenges the myth of the "larger-than-life" saviour-leader.

Another core principle is "First Who... Then What". Before a company could determine where it was going, it had to get the right people on the bus and the wrong people off. The goodto-great companies focused on building a team of disciplined people first, then collectively figuring out the strategy. This is a crucial reversal of the common belief that strategy should come before people. Collins found that getting the right people in the right seats and fostering a culture of rigorous debate and disciplined action was the primary driver of success.

The book's most famous metaphor is the Hedgehog Concept. Drawing on an ancient Greek parable, Collins explains that while the fox knows many things, the hedgehog knows one big thing. Great companies are hedgehogs; they have a clear, simple concept that guides all their actions. The Hedgehog Concept is found at the intersection of three circles:

• What you can be the best in the world at. This isn't just about what you're good at, but what you have the potential to be a global leader in.

• What you are deeply passionate about. The work must ignite the passion of the people involved.

• What best drives your economic engine. This is about finding a single metric (e.g., "profit per x") that best captures the company's economic value.

Finally, Collins introduces the Flywheel Effect, a powerful metaphor for the process of building momentum. A transformation from good to great is not a single, dramatic event. It's like pushing a giant, heavy flywheel. It takes immense effort to get it moving at first, but with consistent, persistent pushes in the same direction, it builds momentum until it becomes a force of its own. This contrasts with the "Doom Loop" of comparison companies, which constantly chase new fads and fail to build any lasting momentum.

While some of the companies studied have since faced challenges or decline, this does not diminish the value of the book's core principles. Good to Great is not a promise of eternal success, but rather a profound analysis of the fundamental disciplines that lead to sustained, superior performance. It is a work of intellectual rigour that offers timeless lessons for leaders in any organisation.

Publication Details:

• Title: Good to Great: Why Some Companies MaketheLeap...andOthersDon't

• Author: Jim Collins

• First Published: 2001

• Publisher: Random House Business (UK), HarperCollins (US)

• ISBN: 978-0066620992

• Pages: 320

• Genre: Non-fiction, Business, Management

• Price (current, approx.): £11.99 (Paperback)

• Availability: Widely available from all major booksellers and online retailers.

A TIMELESS GUIDE TO INTERPERSONAL EXCELLENCE >

Dale Carnegie’s classic offers enduring principles for building strong relationships, reminding us that success is often found through genuine connection and empathy, not manipulation.

First published in 1936, Dale Carnegie's How to WinFriendsandInfluencePeopleis a foundational text on social skills and human relations. In an era dominated by hard-nosed business tactics, Carnegie’s book presented a revolutionary idea: that personal and professional success is not built on technical expertise alone, but on the ability to understand and connect with others. The book’s core philosophy is simple yet profound: you can change other people’s behaviour by changing your own. It offers a practical and ethical guide to becoming a more likeable, persuasive, and influential person.

The book is structured into four main parts, each offering a set of principles designed to improve a different aspect of our interactions.

Part 1: Fundamental Techniques in Handling

People This section lays the groundwork for all subsequent principles. Carnegie's first rule is simple: Don't criticise, condemn, or complain. He argues that criticism is futile because it puts people on the defensive and wounds their pride. Instead, he advocates for giving honest and sincere appreciation. He reminds us that the desire to be appreciated is one of the deepest urges in human nature. Finally, he advises readers to arouse in the other person an eager want, suggesting that the only way to influence people is to talk in terms of what they want.

Part 2: Six Ways to Make People Like You This section provides a clear roadmap for building genuine rapport. The principles are simple, yet powerful:

1. Become genuinely interested in other people. 2. Smile.

3. Remember that a person’s name is to that person the sweetest and most important sound in any language.

4. Be a good listener. Encourage others to talk about themselves.

5. Talk in terms of the other person’s interests.

6. Make the other person feel important—and do it sincerely.

These rules are not about being fake or sycophantic; they are about shifting your focus from yourself to others. Carnegie provides numerous anecdotes of historical figures and everyday people who used these principles to achieve extraordinary results.

Part 3: How to Win People to Your Way of Thinking

This part moves beyond making friends to the art of persuasion. Carnegie advises against arguing, stating that the only way to get the best of an argument is to avoid it. Instead, he offers principles such as beginning in a friendly way,

letting the other person do a great deal of the talking, and letting the other person feel that the idea is his or hers. He teaches the importance of seeing things from the other person’s point of view, a principle he considers paramount.

Part 4: Be a Leader: How to Change People Without Giving Offence or Arousing Resentment

The final section applies the previous principles to leadership. Carnegie advises leaders to call attention to people’s mistakes indirectly, to talk about your own mistakes before criticising the other person, and to praise the slightest improvement and praise every improvement. These principles are rooted in the belief that people are more likely to change when they feel respected and understood, rather than when they are belittled or ordered around.

While some might find its language and examples dated, the psychological principles at

the heart of How to Win Friends and Influence

People are universal and timeless. It is a book that teaches you how to be a better human being, which in turn makes you a more effective leader, salesperson, and friend. In an increasingly digital world, where genuine human connection is at a premium, Carnegie’s lessons on empathy, listening, and sincere appreciation are more vital than ever.

Publication Details:

• Title: HowtoWinFriendsandInfluencePeople

• Author: Dale Carnegie

• First published: 1936

• Publisher: Simon and Schuster

• ISBN: 978-0671027032

• Pages: 291

• Genre: Non-fiction, Self-help, Business

• Price (current, approx.): £10.99 (Paperback)

• Availability: Widely available from all major booksellers and online retailers.

Middle East’s Megaproject Mania: Building the Future, Brick

by Billion-Dollar Brick

The Middle East, long synonymous with vast energy reserves, is undergoing a monumental transformation. Rather than merely extracting and exporting hydrocarbon wealth, nations across the Arabian Peninsula and beyond are pursuing an audacious programme of infrastructure, committing hundreds of billions of pounds to projects that defy conventional scale and ambition. The shift is as much qualitative as quantitative: building smarter, greener and more diversified economies, and laying the physical and digital foundations for a post-oil future. From futuristic cities rising out of the desert to continent-spanning transport networks and advanced energy systems, the region is becoming a laboratory for next-generation infrastructure—drawing international attention and investment on an unprecedented scale.

For decades, economic fortunes were tied to the ebb and flow of oil prices. Wealth accumulated, but an economic monoculture proved vulnerable to shocks. Recognising the imperative of diversification—especially amid a global energy transition—many governments have pivoted to long-range “Vision” strategies to foster non-oil growth, attract tourism, seed new industries and generate sustainable employment for a young population. Infrastructure has become the bedrock of these ambitions and the most visible marker of a move towards a more knowledgebased economy.

The current wave is propelled by a confluence of ambition and necessity. The first driver is diversification itself: countries are investing in tourism, logistics, technology, manufacturing and financial services, each demanding worldclass connective tissue—airports and deep-sea ports, high-speed rail, smart urban grids and advanced digital backbones. A second driver is demography. Rapid population growth and urbanisation require massive social and urban infrastructure—housing, healthcare, education and public services—while new cities and expanded metros must safeguard quality of life as economic activity scales. Geography is a third advantage. Sitting at the crossroads of Europe, Asia and Africa, the region is positioned to dominate trans-shipment and re-export flows; enhanced ports, airports and logistics hubs are consolidating its role in global supply chains. A fourth force is policy clarity. Detailed national visions—from Saudi Vision 2030 to the UAE’s long-term frameworks and Qatar National Vision 2030—set measurable targets for diversification and sustainability, placing infrastructure at the centre and signalling durable commitment to investors. A final accelerant has been the hosting of global events, from Expo 2020 Dubai to the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022, which catalysed stadiums, transport links, hospitality and urban amenities while projecting soft power and shaping future demand.

Several countries are setting the pace. Saudi Arabia is advancing one of the world’s most ambitious infrastructure agendas under Vision 2030. NEOM—estimated at around £400bn— anchors the portfolio with The Line, a 170km linear city planned for nine million residents, designed without roads or cars and powered by renewables. Oxagon seeks to reimagine advanced manufacturing and logistics on the Red Sea, while Trojena targets high-end mountain tourism. Complementary initiatives include the Red Sea Project and AMAALA, conceived as ultra-sustainable luxury destinations; the six-line Riyadh Metro to transform mobility in the capital; King Salman Park to enhance liveability; and the continued modernisation of industrial cities such as Jubail and Yanbu to deepen the manufacturing base.

The United Arab Emirates remains a pioneer in connectivity and innovation. The legacy of Expo

"The current wave is propelled by a confluence of ambition and necessity."

2020 is being consolidated at Expo City Dubai as a sustainable, tech-enabled urban district. Dubai International (DXB) and Abu Dhabi International (AUH) continue to expand as premier aviation hubs, while Jebel Ali Port stands among the world’s busiest container gateways. Smart-city programmes leveraging AI and IoT are improving urban services and public safety, and the cleanenergy transition is gathering pace through Masdar City and the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park. Etihad Rail is stitching together industrial hubs, cities and ports to raise freight efficiency and prepare for future passenger services.

Qatar used the World Cup to accelerate longplanned upgrades. Lusail City showcases a purpose-built, smart urban environment integrating residential, commercial and transport systems. Hamad International Airport, repeatedly ranked among the world’s best, has expanded capacity, while Hamad Port has bolstered trade resilience and reduced reliance on third-country transit. The fully automated Doha Metro has reshaped urban mobility and stitched together key districts.

Egypt is building for a new era. The New Administrative Capital east of Cairo is designed to relieve pressure on the metropolis and create a modern administrative and financial centre with extensive urban services. Enhancements to the Suez Canal are improving one of the world’s vital maritime corridors, and expanded road and rail networks are supporting trade, industrial development and the emergence of new cities to address housing demand.

Oman is leveraging geography outside the Strait of Hormuz to position Duqm as a major industrial and logistics hub, complete with deep-sea port, dry dock, refinery and industrial zones. Plans for a national railway aim to connect ports, industrial areas and cities to raise freight efficiency, while modernised airports in Muscat, Salalah and Duqm support tourism and cargo flows. Bahrain, meanwhile, is reinforcing its role as a financial and logistics node. The expansion of Bahrain International Airport increases passenger capacity and service standards, while the planned King Hamad Causeway to Saudi Arabia is set to deepen integration. New business districts and financial infrastructure are reinforcing the kingdom’s services proposition.

Beyond concrete and steel, these programmes are constructing integrated ecosystems. Megaand smart-city developments such as NEOM,

Lusail and Egypt’s New Administrative Capital are designed for sustainability, digital integration and high liveability to attract global talent and innovation. Transport investments span metros, national rail networks, airports and deep-water ports, knitting the region into global supply chains and improving domestic mobility. The energy transition is visible in gigawatt-scale solar and wind projects, the emergence of green hydrogen and the build-out of smart grids and storage. Digital infrastructure—from 5G and fibre to hyperscale data centres—underpins cloud, AI and smart-city services. Tourism and hospitality are being reimagined through luxury resorts, entertainment districts and cultural landmarks, often with dedicated air and ground links. Social infrastructure—hospitals, medical cities, universities and schools—is expanding in parallel to raise human-capital quality.

The scale of ambition brings challenges. Funding requirements favour diversified capital stacks, drawing on private investment, public–private partnerships and international finance; structuring bankable projects at scale remains a core task. Talent constraints persist across engineering, project management and digital disciplines, demanding proactive strategies for training and attraction. Environmental stewardship is vital, as the carbon and resource footprint of megaprojects must be mitigated through design, materials, waste management and climate resilience. Geopolitical risks are a constant variable, with investor confidence strengthened by policy continuity and regional stability. Execution risk— on timelines, supply chains and governance— requires world-class project management to keep budgets and schedules on track.

Yet these hurdles also create avenues for innovation. Rapid adoption of AI, digital twins and IoT in design and construction is improving planning accuracy and asset performance. International partnerships are deepening technology transfer and local capability, while sustainability criteria are pushing developers towards cleaner energy, circular materials and efficient water use. Enhanced regional connectivity promises to unlock new value pools through integrated logistics and cross-border services.

The Middle East is writing a bold new chapter in its economic history—one defined by concrete, steel and silicon, but aimed at diversification, resilience and competitiveness. The current infrastructure wave is not about monuments for their own sake; it is about reshaping economic models, creating industries, broadening revenue and positioning the region as a leader in innovation and sustainable development. The ambition is breathtaking, the investment substantial and the direction clear. The journey will be complex, but the commitment on display suggests a future that transcends an oil-centric past. For businesses and investors with a forward lens, the opportunities emerging from this transformation are simply too significant to ignore. i

Accenture on Saudi Arabia's AI Revolution: Leading the Next Wave of Enterprise Transformation

By Omar Boulos Accenture’s CEO in the Middle East

As the global technology landscape undergoes a seismic shift with the rise of agentic AI, Saudi Arabia stands at a pivotal crossroads. Accenture’s TechnologyVision2025 report highlights how enterprises worldwide are embracing this new paradigm—and the Kingdom is uniquely positioned to leverage these advancements to accelerate its ambitious Vision 2030 goals.

Saudi Arabia is investing heavily in artificial intelligence and automation to enhance productivity across sectors. In March 2024, the government announced a $40bn fund dedicated to AI investments aimed at optimising operations, reducing waste, and strengthening decisionmaking. According to Accenture’s proprietary insights, generative AI could boost Saudi Arabia’s gross domestic product by approximately $42.3bn. At an aggregate level, AI is expected to augment or automate nearly one-third of all jobs, with highly skilled roles undergoing radical transformation in productivity, agility, and collaboration.

The Kingdom, however, is only just beginning. The transition from traditional AI to agentic systems represents more than an incremental upgrade—it is a fundamental reimagining of how technology can serve business objectives. Agentic AI can autonomously perform complex tasks with minimal human oversight, creating vast new possibilities for Saudi enterprises. Currently, one in three companies is pivoting towards innovating with agentic AI, and those that move swiftly stand to gain a significant competitive edge.

In the Kingdom’s rapidly diversifying economy, the integration of these systems is not a luxury but a strategic necessity. For example, oil giant Saudi Aramco has begun deploying agentic AI solutions to optimise extraction processes, predict equipment failures, and manage complex supply chains with unprecedented efficiency. Early implementations have already shown maintenance cost reductions of up to 30 percent, alongside measurable improvements in safety performance.

Agentic systems and composable digital cores are transforming how businesses interact with technology and what users expect from it—introducing entirely new enterprise considerations. For instance, 88 percent of executives in Saudi Arabia express concern that LLMs and chatbots could homogenise brand voices. Yet 94 percent agree this

Author: Omar Boulos

challenge can be addressed by embedding personified AI experiences infused with a brand’s unique culture, values, and tone. Leading institutions, such as the Saudi National Bank, are already pursuing this approach. The bank is leveraging AI-augmented functionality to develop innovative financial products that respond to Saudi Arabia’s distinct market characteristics—analysing datasets that include consumer behaviour, religious requirements for Shariah-compliant finance, and global trends to identify underserved niches and design tailored solutions.

The healthcare sector, too, is being reshaped by AI augmentation. Physicians at King Faisal Specialist Hospital now work alongside AI systems that not only relieve administrative burdens but actively support diagnostic accuracy, treatment planning, and medical research—all while respecting cultural sensitivities that are integral to healthcare delivery in the Kingdom.

Moreover, 86 percent of Saudi executives believe robots that collaborate with people and continuously learn from these interactions will increase trust and teamwork. This sentiment

could soon pave the way for robotic surgical assistants to handle simple procedures, signalling a new era of human-machine cooperation in medicine.

For Saudi enterprises, the strategic implementation of agentic AI represents a potential leapfrog opportunity. Rather than incrementally modernising legacy systems, visionary organisations are rebuilding their operating models around AI capabilities from the ground up.

The journey towards AI-powered transformation, however, is not without challenges. As the Accenture report notes, organisations globally are grappling with the ethical dimensions of AI deployment, and Saudi enterprises face these same issues—alongside additional considerations of cultural alignment. The Kingdom has responded proactively. The Saudi Data and AI Authority (SDAIA) has developed comprehensive frameworks for responsible AI use, balancing innovation with ethical governance. These guidelines are helping enterprises navigate the complex terrain of AI implementation while remaining consistent with Saudi Arabia’s cultural and social context.

Equally important is the development of human capital capable of collaborating with these systems. Through initiatives like the Saudi Digital Academy, the Kingdom is investing heavily in technology education to cultivate a new generation of professionals prepared to work with AI rather than merely operate it.

A key priority for 81 percent of business leaders in Saudi Arabia—closely aligned with the global average of 80 percent—is ensuring a positive relationship between people and AI, preventing the transformation journey from being undermined by automation anxiety. Communicating clearly, involving employees early, and building trust will be vital. Establishing a virtuous cycle in which humans and AI coevolve to reimagine business capabilities will be central to scripting the next chapter of Saudi Arabia’s remarkable transformation story. i

"At an aggregate level, AI is expected to augment or automate nearly one-third of all jobs."

The Walking Dead: Companies that Cheated Death (and Why We Can’t Look Away)

They made the wrong bets, ignored the market, and drove their best talent to the door. By any orthodox metric these organisations should have been consigned to the corporate graveyard. Yet, against odds and sound judgment, they persisted. This is a story of improbable survival, a cautionary tale of hubris—and a study of the curious forces that keep failing businesses on life support.

Acompany that is merely struggling is one thing; a corporate “Walking Dead” is quite another. These are not firms navigating a tough cycle or parrying a vigorous new entrant. They are organisations that committed fundamental, often fatal, errors. On market share, profitability and morale, they were terminal. Yet they did not die. They lurched on—kept animated by inertia, misplaced nostalgia and outside intervention. Think less phoenix rising, more zombie in the boardroom: decaying, but still moving.

The sins that should have sealed their fate are familiar. For decades the archetype was Blockbuster Video, a retail colossus and cultural fixture of Friday nights. Its error was a breathtaking failure of foresight. As Netflix first mailed DVDs and then, crucially, streamed them, Blockbuster doubled down on stores and late fees. Management dismissed Netflix as niche and reportedly spurned the chance to acquire it for a trifling sum. Fixed costs—rents, inventory and payroll for thousands of outlets—became shackles. They clung to a model the internet was dismantling in real time.

By 2010 Blockbuster was drowning in debt and entered bankruptcy. That should have been the end. Instead, the brand staggered into a curious afterlife. A lone franchise in Bend, Oregon became a tourist attraction, while the name itself morphed into a cultural artefact. The “survival” was not a strategy; it was an accident—an unintended pivot from commerce to kitsch.

THE FORCES OF IMPROBABLE SURVIVAL

How, then, do corporate zombies stagger on when gravity says they should fall? The answer lies not in managerial genius but in the external—and often irrational—forces that can prop up a flawed business. These are rescues, not turnarounds.

One force is the “too big to fail” impulse. In the 2008 crisis, the American car industry careened towards collapse after decades of strategic drift and product complacency. General Motors and

Chrysler were, in economic terms, insolvent. Yet Washington intervened. The rationale was unapologetically systemic: the shock to jobs, suppliers and regional economies would have been cataclysmic. These firms were not saved on merit but because their failure posed an unacceptable macroeconomic risk.

Another force is brand inertia. Iconic names carry emotional ballast. Sears, once the place where America shopped, illustrates the point. Years of underinvestment, muddled strategy and a lethargic embrace of e-commerce drove a slow-motion decline. But heritage, a lingering reservoir of customer loyalty and a trove of property assets extended the agony. Each crisis produced another refinancing, another disposals programme, another wheezing reprieve. The badge itself became a life-support machine.

A third force is the niche fortress. Kodak invented digital photography and then ignored it. The mass market moved on; film should have vanished. Yet a small, loyal cohort—cinematographers, fine-art photographers, archivists—continued to demand specialist emulsions and processing. That narrow, profitable niche bought time. It was not reinvention; it was a monopoly in a shrinking cul-de-sac.

Finally, there are accidental lifelines. Exogenous shocks can lift the least prepared. The pandemic jolted demand for obscure cleaning agents, PPE components and niche home-fitness kit. Firms that had failed to modernise occasionally rode a sudden spike in orders or government stimulus, stumbling into windfalls they had not earned and could not replicate. Luck masqueraded as resilience.

THE HUMAN COST—AND THE LESSONS UNLEARNED Surviving in spite of oneself is not victory; it is protracted discomfort. Inside these organisations, the illusion of continuity exacts a heavy price.

Cultures stagnate. Creative people leave first, taking with them the institutional memory and

curiosity any revival would require. Those who remain often do so out of caution or fatigue. Meetings become rituals of denial: small, performative cost-cuts dressed up as strategy, brave talk over brittle spreadsheets, and a collective refusal to speak the obvious truth. Innovation withers in an airless loop of firefighting and incrementalism.

The damage radiates through the supply chain. Zombie corporates pay late, demand price concessions and foist inventory risk onto partners. For smaller suppliers, serving such a customer can be existential. One missed remittance cascades into overdrafts, layoffs and, at times, insolvency. The walking dead do not merely freeze their own future; they siphon vitality from healthier firms around them.

Employees who stay inhabit a limbo. The payslip arrives, but the future does not. Skills ossify. CVs age. When the reckoning lands—closure, sale, restructuring—the market rightly prizes recent, relevant experience. Years spent maintaining a failing equilibrium are hard to translate. People traded optionality for a little more time; the trade rarely favours them.

WHY WE CAN’T LOOK AWAY

There is a cultural magnetism to these stories. We are drawn to brinkmanship—the near miss, the improbable reprieve, the company that somehow refuses to die. Part of the fascination is narrative: the boardroom as morality play, with hubris, denial and fate playing their parts. Part is psychological: observers project hope that a beloved brand might recover; executives prefer parables that imply survival is merely a matter of grit.

But this attention can be corrosive. Survival narratives are easily misread as strategies. A bailout becomes a “bold reset”. A brand relic is reframed as a “leaner, focused core”. Management teams convince themselves that time bought is value created. In reality, life support is not a cure; it is the deferral of consequence.

WHAT REAL TURNAROUNDS DO DIFFERENTLY

Genuine corporate recovery does not resemble the zombie shuffle. It begins with diagnosis without euphemism, followed by choices that bite: exiting products, closing sites, rewriting incentives, replacing leaders, rebuilding technology and re-earning trust with customers and suppliers. Cash discipline tightens. Decision

rights crystallise. A credible plan aligns capital to the few things that can move the needle—and stops funding the many that cannot.

It also requires time horizons longer than one quarter and shorter than a fantasy. The discipline is to prove progress in 90-day blocks while designing for multi-year reinvention. That cadence—visible gains, compounding over time—is the opposite of the “one more bridge financing” mentality that typifies the undead.

Above all, real turnarounds recommit to customers. Zombies obsess over creditors, covenants and optics; healthy firms talk relentlessly about use-cases, service levels and outcomes. If the customer cannot feel the difference, neither will the P&L.

THE RIGHT LESSONS FROM THE UNDEAD

The walking dead corporation is not a model but a mirror. Blockbuster did not survive; a single store turned into a museum piece. Sears did not pivot; it liquidated in instalments. Kodak did not leap to digital; it harvested a dwindling niche.

These entities persisted because of inertia, intervention and sentiment—forces largely

orthogonal to managerial excellence. The sober lesson for leaders and founders is plain. Do not confuse endurance with excellence, or reprieve with reinvention. Do not mistake a charismatic brand for a durable moat, or a government backstop for a strategy. Do not flatter chance events as evidence of capability.

The mandate is to build organisations that renew themselves before markets force the issue: to challenge sacred cows while margins are healthy; to retire products that used to work but no longer do; to cannibalise one’s own revenue before a competitor does it more ruthlessly; to measure success by customer pull, not internal comfort. Survival is table stakes. Thriving requires the humility to see clearly, the courage to act decisively and the operational stamina to make change stick.

In the end, the “walking dead” endure not as exemplars but as warnings—animated reminders of what happens when hope displaces strategy and when yesterday’s advantages are mistaken for tomorrow’s plan. The most valuable outcome of their stories is not the shiver of nostalgia but the resolve to avoid their path. i

Finding Your Flow: The Business Benefits of Tai Chi

The modern boardroom prizes speed, stamina and sharp decisionmaking—yet the most reliable edge may come from slowing down. Tai Chi, the “moving meditation” of Chinese martial arts, offers leaders a rigorous, practical method for lowering stress, sharpening focus and building durable resilience—advantages that compound far beyond the studio and into the balance sheet.

The boardroom can resemble a battlefield. Deadlines compress, margins wobble, and competitors innovate at pace. In such conditions, even seasoned executives can feel drained, distracted and physically tense. Burnout and imposter syndrome are now familiar terms of trade, but they are symptoms of a deeper mismatch between the human nervous system and the relentless cadence of modern work. The most effective antidote may not be to push harder, but to recalibrate altogether. Tai Chi—an ancient martial discipline often described as “meditation in motion”—provides exactly that recalibration: a structured practice that quiets physiological overdrive while training the mind to remain steady under pressure.

FROM “QI” TO CAPACITY

At its heart, Tai Chi cultivates Qi—often translated as life energy—through slow, precise sequences and conscious breathing. Set the metaphysics aside and the commercial translation is straightforward: Qi is usable capacity. Modern executives run perpetual deficits in this currency, borrowing from sleep, stimulants and sheer will. Tai Chi restores capacity by engaging the parasympathetic nervous system, lowering arousal and improving autonomic balance. In practical terms, practitioners recover faster from stress, think more clearly and sustain performance without the brittle edge that accompanies chronic adrenaline.

THE STRESS DIVIDEND

The clearest business benefit is stress regulation. Tai Chi’s long, even exhalations and continuous, unhurried movements signal safety to the body, shifting physiology away from “fight or flight”. When cortisol is chronically elevated, judgement narrows, creativity drops and risk perception skews; decisions become shortterm and defensive. Regular practice reduces baseline stress reactivity, allowing leaders to hold multiple variables in mind without panic, listen longer before acting and preserve bandwidth for strategic thought. In the meeting that matters, the Tai Chi practitioner becomes the still point in a volatile room—able to absorb surprise, delay

instinctive reactions and choose responses that serve the long game.

ATTENTION AS A COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE

Tai Chi is a discipline of attention. Each form demands whole-body coordination, spatial awareness and moment-to-moment correction. One cannot ruminate on email while maintaining a rooted stance and a precisely aligned spine. This cultivated presence has direct commercial utility. Deep work—building a financial model, writing a critical memo, negotiating terms— requires the same capacity to exclude noise and sustain focus. In an economy saturated with alerts and algorithmic distraction, the ability to command attention on demand is an economic moat. Tai Chi trains that moat daily, rep after rep, until “being present” is not an aspiration but a reflex.

BALANCE—LITERAL AND STRATEGIC

The aesthetic grace of Tai Chi conceals demanding work on balance and posture. Micro-adjustments in the ankles, knees, hips and core build stability; misalignments reveal themselves immediately. The metaphor for leadership is exact. Strategy is balance under uncertainty—between prudence and ambition, autonomy and control, speed and accuracy. A Tai Chi practitioner learns to find centre quickly after disturbance, to turn rather than resist, to yield a little in order to advance a lot. When a project misfires or a market shifts, that habit of recovery translates into practical resilience: fewer overreactions, faster resets, clearer prioritisation.

SOFT POWER, HARD RESULTS

Tai Chi embodies the paradox of “soft overcoming hard”. Yielding is not surrender; it is intelligent redirection. In management, soft power looks like curiosity in place of defensiveness, questions in place of edicts, and the confidence to co-create with partners rather than overwhelm them. Teams led in this spirit tend to move faster over time: fewer political blockages, more discretionary effort, better information flow. Clients experience the same quality as trust: a counterpart who listens closely, adjusts quickly and still delivers to firm standards.

CULTURE BY DESIGN, NOT ACCIDENT

Although Tai Chi can be solitary, it flourishes in communities. Group practice creates a shared cadence and a code of mutual respect: arrive on time, attend to detail, improve together. Introduced thoughtfully—say, optional earlymorning sessions before off-sites, or short movement and breathing intervals in long workshops—the practice signals a leadership philosophy: high expectations anchored in calm, and performance without performative stress. Cultures absorb these cues. Meetings run on time. People speak in turn. Disagreement is allowed to breathe. Over months, this converts into lower friction and higher quality decisions.

THE PHYSIOLOGY OF GOOD JUDGEMENT

The case for Tai Chi is not merely philosophical. Its movement vocabulary strengthens legs and glutes, opens the thoracic spine, and improves mobility in hips and ankles—all antidotes to desk-bound stiffness. Better biomechanics reduce the pain and fatigue that silently degrade judgement by mid-afternoon. Breathing patterns that emphasise long exhales improve heart-rate variability, a proxy for adaptive capacity under load. Sleep quality tends to improve; so does recovery after intense travel. Leaders who arrive rested and centred make better calls, hear more in the room and are less prone to status-driven errors.

PRACTICAL

INTEGRATION FOR BUSY PEOPLE

The perceived barrier—time—is lower than many imagine. Tai Chi rewards consistency over duration. Ten to fifteen minutes at the bookends of the day can reset physiology: a short standing sequence on waking, a slow form and breath practice before emails. Walking between meetings becomes an opportunity for posture and breath drills. Monthly half-days with a qualified instructor reinforce technique and keep motivation high. For teams, five-minute “reset” intervals during long sessions—quiet standing, slow diaphragmatic breathing, gentle weight shifts—restore attention at negligible cost to agenda time and material benefit to outcomes.

DECISION-MAKING UNDER FIRE

Consider the executive facing simultaneous pressures: a product delay, an investor call and a competitor’s surprise pricing move. Untrained, the body accelerates: shallow breathing, tunnel vision, rash action. A trained practitioner notices the surge, lengthens the breath, relaxes the jaw and shoulders, and widens attention. With physiology stabilised, options multiply. The call is handled without defensiveness; the delay is decomposed into controllable next actions; the pricing move is analysed rather than mirrored reflexively. The difference is not personality; it is practice.

LEADERSHIP PRESENCE THAT TRAVELS

Presence is often mislabelled charisma. In reality, it is coherence: voice, posture, eye contact and timing aligned. Tai Chi builds this coherence from the ground up. Rooted feet and a lengthened spine produce a steadier voice; paced breathing slows speech and invites listening; relaxed facial muscles project warmth without loss of authority. In virtual settings, where subtle cues are flattened, these advantages are amplified. The leader who looks and sounds composed commands attention—without raising it.

A NOTE ON EVIDENCE AND EXPECTATIONS

Tai Chi is not a miracle cure, and it will not substitute for flawed strategy or poor execution. Yet a growing body of research links the practice to improvements in balance, stress markers and cognitive performance, particularly in sustained attention. The business case is cumulative: small advantages in clarity, resilience and recovery— compounded daily—produce meaningful gains in productivity and decision quality over quarters and years. Approached with the same discipline one would apply to financial hygiene or risk management, Tai Chi becomes part of an executive operating system.

GETTING STARTED WITHOUT THE MYSTIQUE

The optimal entry is instruction: a reputable school or instructor to establish posture, alignment

and breath. Leaders pressed for time can begin with a limited set of foundational movements and one short form, practised most days for a month. Keep the commitment modest and nonnegotiable; stack it next to existing habits such as morning coffee or the final email check. After the first month, add a weekly longer session to refine technique. The goal is not aesthetic perfection but transferable skill: calmer physiology on demand, steadier focus when it counts.

THE STRATEGIC PAY-OFF

The economy is recalibrating around sustainable growth, ethical leadership and human performance that lasts. The winners will pair technical excellence with emotional regulation, speed with poise, and ambition with recovery. Tai Chi speaks fluently to this future. It teaches leaders to generate pace from calm, to match force with flexibility, and to hold line of sight on what matters when noise is loudest.

Set the phone down. Stand tall. Breathe out twice as long as you breathe in. Move slowly enough to notice your weight shift and your shoulders drop. Ten minutes later you will not only feel different; you will make different choices. That is the compounding edge. In markets shaped by volatility, the capacity to find—then operate from—your centre is not a luxury. It is a strategy. i

> Payback Time:

How the $3 Trillion AI Investment is Rewiring Leadership and Transformation

By Bashar Kilani

As global AI spending on data and compute surges past $3tn, real payback won’t come from faster chips or bigger models—it will come from leadership and organisational change. The Chief AI Officer (CAIO) is emerging as the catalyst that turns capital into capability, and intelligence into impact.

By 2028, The Economist estimates cumulative investment in data centres alone will top $3tn—on par with India’s GDP and the largest capital wave in digital infrastructure. ROI won’t be counted in petaflops or tokens, but in how deeply enterprises transform: data into insight, algorithms into productivity, and AI into durable economic value.

If the last decade’s digital push was about adoption, the next decade’s AI push is about reinvention. Most organisations already have clouds, data and tooling. Yet McKinsey’s 2024 State of AI finds fewer than 15 percent have moved beyond pilots to enterprise-scale results. The gap is not technology; it is leadership, governance and operating-model change.

AI is a capability multiplier that reshapes decisions, work and value creation. Gartner expects that by 2026 more than four in five enterprises will use generative AI in production, but warns that without coherent strategy the result will be fragmented, risky and valuedilutive. Enter the CAIO: not a super-CTO, but a strategist fluent in the language of business and the logic of algorithms, aligning AI to value pools, operating rhythm and risk appetite. Gartner expects roughly a third of large enterprises to appoint one by 2026; firms that empower the role are materially more likely to report EBIT uplift. Early adopters embedding GenAI at scale are already seeing double-digit EBITDA gains from productivity, efficiency and new revenue.

The CAIO translates compute into capability and capability into competitive advantage. They define the AI ambition in business terms, prioritise use cases against P&L levers, and sequence delivery so early wins fund bigger bets. They sit at the junction of economics and ethics, building guardrails that let teams move quickly without breaking trust, and they weave product, data, risk, compliance and HR into an AI-native operating model.

This leadership remit also rewires the C-suite. Finance shifts from backward-looking stewardship to live value orchestration, measuring return in algorithmic productivity

Author: Bashar Kilani

as well as cash flow. People leaders become curators of AI-augmented talent, redesigning roles, skills and incentives. Risk chiefs extend into model bias, data provenance and drift, treating responsible AI as an enterprise control system. Marketing pivots to real-time, modelpowered personalisation. At the centre sits the CAIO, ensuring intelligence compounds across functions rather than splintering into silos.

Capital markets are already pricing the promise. PwC estimates AI could add $15.7tn to global GDP by 2030; the IMF judges that a majority of world output now comes from economies directly exposed to AI as adopters or disruptors. Meanwhile, Nvidia—powering much of the world’s AI infrastructure—has surpassed a $2.5tn market capitalisation, reflecting belief in the AI dividend. Yet capital formation is not value creation. Boards and CFOs have moved beyond “Should we invest?” to “How do we secure transformational ROI?” That is the CAIO’s brief.

Three mandates anchor the role. First, strategy and value creation: articulate a clear AI thesis, focus on high-value problems, and integrate models into products and processes with measurable KPIs. Second, culture and capability: technology is the small part; people are the big one. Winning programmes invest in change management and skills so human–machine teaming becomes muscle memory, not novelty. Third, governance and responsibility: as rules like the EU AI Act and the US Executive Order mature, institutionalise responsible AI— model cards, audits, human-in-the-loop controls, bias mitigation and continuous monitoring. Guardrails don’t slow innovation; they enable it to scale safely.

The public sector has grasped the leadership dimension early. The UAE appointed the world’s first ministerial AI portfolio and now advances an AI-native government agenda. Saudi Arabia’s SDAIA, the UK’s Office for AI and the US Chief AI Officer Council reflect the same conviction: AI transformation must be led, not merely managed. Private-sector leaders are drawing the same lesson: treat AI as an economic function, give the CAIO board-level sponsorship, and move from proofs of concept to proofs of value.

What does payback look like? It arrives first in productivity—faster closes in finance, higher developer velocity, shorter handling times in service, better forecast accuracy in supply chains. Decision quality improves as models surface patterns no dashboard can. Risk posture strengthens through automated controls and anomaly detection. Growth follows as products get smarter and experiences more personal. Each gain compounds because intelligence improves with use.

None of this is accidental. It demands ruthless prioritisation, clear operating mechanisms and a robust data backbone. It requires engineering discipline—observability, versioning, testing and release management for models as rigorously as for code. It needs talent pairings that fuse domain expertise with data science and product craft, under ethical guardrails that safeguard trust.

The mythology of AI celebrates model breakthroughs and silicon milestones. They matter. But in the ledger that decides winners and losers, organisational entries count more. The CAIO is the bridge between data and dividends, between algorithms and advantage. Appoint one with the right remit—and equip them to reshape how the company works—and the $3tn being poured into the AI substrate will not merely process information. It will power progress.

When payback time comes, it won’t be the size of your servers that matters. It will be the depth of your transformation. i

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Bashar Kilani held senior leadership positions at global technology and consulting firms, Accenture and IBM, in addition to several board memberships at corporates, universities and future foresight institutions before founding AI360 Innovations Ltd an advisory firm focusing on the digital economy based at the Dubai and becoming a Managing Partner at Boyden, a global leadership consulting, and executive search firm.

Building Trust in AI: The UAE’s Journey to a Digital Cognitive Future

By Omar Boulos Accenture’s CEO in the Middle East

As artificial intelligence evolves from a tool of automation to an autonomous actor and collaborative co-pilot, enterprises must make trust the cornerstone of their AI strategy. Balancing and maintaining that trust will be essential to unlocking AI’s full potential.

As AI systems become more deeply embedded in workplace processes, transparency around how these systems function and make decisions is paramount. Employees must understand the logic underpinning AI outcomes to develop confidence in their use. Ensuring systems are free from bias is equally crucial— if staff perceive algorithms as unfair or opaque, trust in both the technology and the organisation erodes. The fear of job displacement can further weaken confidence, making open communication about AI’s role in reshaping responsibilities indispensable. Ultimately, trust in AI depends on robust data-privacy protections and clear, enforceable policies on data use.

Enterprises must also articulate the tangible benefits of AI—to both employees and the wider organisation—while providing the training needed to help people collaborate effectively with intelligent systems. Equipping staff to use AI as an amplifier of their own skills, rather than a replacement, fosters empowerment and longterm adoption.

Accenture’s Technology Vision 2025 report underscores trust as the linchpin of successful AI transformation. Although 89 percent of global executives believe AI will revolutionise their industries, only 32 percent have implemented comprehensive governance frameworks. In the UAE, this disparity between ambition and infrastructure is particularly striking. Since the launch of the National AI Strategy 2031, the country has invested more than AED24bn in AI initiatives—yet governance frameworks have not kept pace. This mismatch represents both a challenge and an opportunity for forward-looking UAE enterprises.

With trust emerging as the foundation of AI success, organisations across the Emirates are navigating the delicate balance between rapid innovation and responsible deployment. According to Accenture research, 65 percent of UAE executives believe AI’s impact depends on establishing a foundation of trust. At the same time, 76 percent acknowledge the urgency of reinvention but struggle to integrate AI agents effectively. Only 20 percent of firms in the UAE are proactively redesigning their digital systems to accommodate AI agents—far below the global average of 77 percent.

"With trust emerging as the foundation of AI success, organisations across the Emirates are navigating the delicate balance between rapid innovation and responsible deployment. According to Accenture research, 65 percent of UAE executives believe AI’s impact depends on establishing a foundation of trust."

This slower adoption rate, coupled with the continued reliance on legacy systems, risks constraining growth. Yet it also highlights where strategic investment in trust frameworks and workforce readiness can yield the greatest dividends. The UAE’s “We the UAE 2031” vision aims for 100 percent reliance on AI in government services and data analysis by that year—a bold target that demands both technological innovation and societal confidence.

Accenture’s focus on evolving trust alongside technology and talent development—exemplified by initiatives such as the Generative AI Scholars Programme—offers a roadmap for UAE firms to navigate AI’s ethical and operational complexities. Already, 75 percent of workers across UAE businesses are using generative AI in some form. The ways in which people interact with this technology—from copilots and voice assistants to robotics, mobility, and healthcare— will shape the next phase of the country’s digital evolution. The arrival of agentic AI and, eventually, general intelligence will make this journey even more complex and compelling.

Enterprises must recognise that they are no longer implementing isolated AI tools—they are building the organisation’s digital cognitive brain: a unified intelligence that learns, adapts, and orchestrates decisions across the enterprise. This holistic model mirrors the UAE’s own centralised AI governance structure under the National Programme for Artificial Intelligence.

To realise the full potential of AI-driven reinvention, UAE organisations must treat trust as a design principle, not an afterthought. Technology Vision 2025 found that companies prioritising transparent AI governance achieved returns on their AI investments 32 percent higher than peers. The UAE’s Corporate Governance Framework for AI—developed by the country’s AI Office in partnership with the World Economic Forum—provides a practical foundation for building such trust. It urges enterprises to implement explainable AI systems that make decision-making transparent, preserve human oversight for accountability, monitor bias and ethical compliance continuously, and enforce rigorous data-governance standards.

Early adopters such as Etisalat by e& are demonstrating the benefits. Its AI-powered customer-service platform explains the reasoning behind each recommendation while maintaining human review for sensitive issues—driving a 24 percent increase in customer-satisfaction scores.

Trust and innovation are not competing priorities—they are complementary forces. The digital cognitive brain concept illustrates how continuous learning and transparent governance can coexist, building resilience and accountability into every layer of enterprise AI.

Nationally, the UAE’s AI Ethics Advisory Board—established in 2023—provides a compass for this journey. Its guidelines on AI in healthcare and financial services set sectorspecific frameworks for ethical and transparent deployment that local enterprises can adapt to their operations.

For UAE businesses, the imperative is clear: embed trust into AI systems from the outset, rather than retrofitting it later. Doing so will not only mitigate risks but create a distinct competitive advantage rooted in transparency and stakeholder confidence. As the UAE advances towards 2031 and beyond, its model for a trusted, cognitive digital future may well set the global benchmark for responsible AI leadership. i

Latin America’s New Horizon: Navigating the Continent’s Most Business-Friendly Nations

For decades, many international investors viewed Latin America through a lens of volatility and uncertainty. A history of economic crises, shifting politics and regulatory complexity often overshadowed a region rich in natural resources, a burgeoning consumer base and a youthful, increasingly skilled workforce. A quiet but profound transformation is now under way. Across the continent, governments are reshaping economic frameworks, advancing far-reaching reforms and cultivating environments designed to attract and retain foreign direct investment. This is not a cyclical uptick but a strategic pivot born of the recognition that durable growth depends on transparent rules, credible institutions and a welcoming climate for enterprise.

The narrative is shifting from perennial promise to tangible progress. Policymakers are prioritising stable macroeconomic management, predictable regulation and modern infrastructure as essentials rather than aspirations. The renewed focus reflects domestic pressures to create jobs and diversify alongside intensified global competition for capital. The result is a landscape that remains diverse in development stage and policy mix yet offers compelling opportunities for investors prepared to look beyond dated perceptions.

A business-friendly proposition in Latin America rests on several interlocking pillars. Macroeconomic stability is foundational. Hardlearnt lessons from high inflation and currency dislocation have led many central banks to embrace independence, inflation targets and greater fiscal discipline, reducing crisis frequency and improving the planning horizon for companies. Regulation and ease of operation matter no less. Historically cumbersome procedures and complex tax compliance are being streamlined through digital administration, faster company registration, simplified border processes and strengthened investor protections. Infrastructure is another determinant. While gaps remain, targeted programmes and public–private partnerships are expanding roads, ports, airports and renewable energy capacity, easing logistics and lowering operating costs. Human capital is central to competitiveness. A young demographic profile is being matched with investment in education and vocational training to meet rising demand for digital and technical skills, even as informality continues to challenge productivity. Market access completes the picture. Regional integration and a web of trade agreements with the United States, the European Union and Asia are deepening supply-chain links and opening export channels.

Within this broader shift, several countries stand out. Chile has long set a regional benchmark. Membership of the OECD underscores its institutional strength, and a combination of fiscal prudence, an independent central bank and robust legal protections offers predictability. An extensive network of trade agreements provides reach into major markets across Asia, Europe and North America. Core investment themes span copper and mining services, export-oriented agriculture and forestry, and fast-growing renewable energy, though continued diversification and social inclusion remain policy priorities.

Colombia has emerged as a rising Andean economy. Reforms have eased business formation, improved tax procedures and bolstered contract enforcement, while access to both the Pacific and Atlantic strengthens its logistics proposition. A growing middle class and targeted incentives support investment across infrastructure, manufacturing and technology. The multi-billion-pound fourth-generation toll-

"Colombia has emerged as a rising Andean economy. Reforms have eased business formation, improved tax procedures and bolstered contract enforcement, while access to both the Pacific and Atlantic strengthens its logistics proposition. A growing middle class and targeted incentives support investment across infrastructure, manufacturing and technology."

road programme illustrates a pragmatic approach to connectivity, even as tax complexity and the need to formalise labour markets persist as areas for continued improvement.

Brazil, the region’s largest market, offers scale few can match. Despite a reputation for bureaucracy, recent measures have simplified company registration and property transfers, and the breadth of the economy—from agribusiness and mining to a diversified industrial base and expanding services—continues to attract long-term capital. Preferential access within Mercosur supports regional trade, and ongoing efforts to streamline regulation and accelerate infrastructure delivery will be decisive in unlocking the country’s full potential.

Costa Rica provides a distinct proposition as a hub for high-value services and sustainable industry. Political stability, strong democratic institutions and a highly educated, bilingual workforce underpin sectors such as medical devices, shared services and information technology. Consistent electricity reliability and a longstanding commitment to renewable energy enhance its appeal to environmentally conscious investors, while a network of trade accords, including CAFTA-DR, secures access to the US market.

Momentum extends beyond these leaders. Uruguay’s reputation for rule of law, macro stability and a well-educated population supports agriculture, logistics and services. Peru combines a robust mining base with ongoing administrative reforms and Pacific Alliance integration, even as it addresses bureaucratic and political headwinds. Argentina retains significant potential in agriculture and energy, notably the Vaca Muerta shale, alongside deep human capital; the investment outlook will turn on policy continuity and macro stabilisation. Panama leverages the Canal and its strategic location to anchor logistics, finance and tourism,

supported by improvements in credit access and cross-border trade processes. The Dominican Republic has recorded strong growth and has actively cultivated investment in tourism, freezone manufacturing and services, aided by proximity to US markets and participation in CAFTA-DR.

Challenges remain and are widely recognised. Administrative complexity and corruption still impede some markets, though digital government services and stricter compliance regimes are beginning to narrow discretion and raise transparency. Infrastructure deficits, particularly in transport and energy, continue to inflate logistics costs; the expanding pipeline of bankable projects and greater use of blended finance are designed to close these gaps. High informality constrains tax mobilisation and worker protections, demanding sustained labourmarket reform and incentives to formalise. Political volatility in select jurisdictions can unsettle investment plans; credible, rules-based frameworks are the best antidote. Access to finance for small and mid-sized firms is uneven, prompting efforts to deepen capital markets, expand credit registries and cultivate venture ecosystems.

The direction of travel is clear. Latin America is not a monolith but a mosaic of economies, each with distinct strengths, reform paths and sectoral opportunities. Where reforms have been sustained and institutions strengthened, the investment environment has improved meaningfully. For international businesses seeking new markets and growth frontiers, the imperative is to replace broad-brush assumptions with granular analysis—aligning sector strategy with country fundamentals, policy credibility and market access. The continent is not merely open for business; it is actively inviting it, with clearer rules, more capable institutions and a more confident embrace of private enterprise than in years past. i

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> The Phantom Menace: Why Stagflation is the Economy's Most Terrifying Spectre

A

noxious blend of soaring prices and stagnant growth, stagflation is an economic phenomenon that defies conventional wisdom and cripples ordinary life. This financial “worst

of both

worlds”

is

a rare but devastating affliction, forcing policymakers into an impossible dilemma and threatening a return to the dark days of the 1970s. The question is: has the spectre returned to haunt the global economy?

Stagflation, a portmanteau coined by British politician Iain Macleod in 1965, describes an economic nightmare in which high inflation coincides with economic stagnation and, often, elevated unemployment. The combination is particularly insidious because it runs against the Phillips Curve orthodoxy that once suggested an inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation. In a stagflationary climate, both rise together, eroding living standards and pushing up the “misery index”—the simple but telling sum of inflation and unemployment rates.

THE HISTORICAL SCOURGE OF THE 1970S

The most pronounced period of stagflation arrived in the 1970s and reshaped economic theory and policy across the developed world. In the UK and the US, the decade’s turmoil was triggered by a sequence of supply shocks, most notably the 1973 oil crisis. Following the Yom Kippur War, the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries imposed an embargo that sent crude prices soaring. Because oil is a fundamental input for production and transport, this external shock raised costs across the economy and ushered in classic cost-push inflation: prices climbed not because demand was overheating, but because supply was constrained and energy costs exploded.

The inflationary surge fed directly into stagnation. Higher energy costs squeezed margins, sapped industrial output, and slowed growth, which in turn pushed unemployment higher. Policy choices magnified the damage. In the late 1960s and early 1970s, both Washington and Westminster had pursued expansionary monetary policies to maintain high employment, policies that had already stoked inflationary pressure. When the supply shock hit, inflation expectations slipped their anchors. Workers sought larger pay rises to offset higher prices, firms passed on rising costs, and a wage–price spiral entrenched inflation even as growth faltered. In Britain, inflation spiked amid industrial unrest and political upheaval. In the United States, the core Consumer Price Index surged into double digits while unemployment breached seven percent. It took Paul Volcker’s shock therapy—

"The combination is particularly insidious because it runs against the Phillips Curve orthodoxy that once suggested an inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation."

pushing the federal funds rate above 19 percent by 1981—to reset expectations. The price was a deep recession; the reward was the defeat of entrenched 1970s-style stagflation.

THE PERILS OF THE WORST OF BOTH WORLDS

Stagflation presents a singular policy bind because the tools to quell inflation and the tools to revive growth pull in opposite directions. Tightening monetary policy and fiscal stances cool price pressures but also depress activity and employment. Loosening policy to spur demand supports growth and jobs but risks reigniting inflation. The trade-offs are stark:

Economic Objective

WILL THE SPECTRE RE-EMERGE?

Fears of a modern replay have sharpened in recent years as familiar ingredients have appeared. The pandemic fractured global supply chains, creating bottlenecks from semiconductors to shipping. Geopolitical shocks, especially Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, jolted commodity markets and lifted prices for energy and key foods, pushing costpush inflation through production networks. Labour markets, meanwhile, were reshaped by early retirements, long-term illness, and shifting preferences, leaving participation rates below pre-pandemic norms in several economies. Tighter labour supply forced firms to bid up wages to recruit and retain staff, and in some sectors that dynamic resembled a smaller, more contained wage–price spiral. Overlaying these shifts was the legacy of extraordinary pandemicera policy. Massive fiscal support and centralbank balance-sheet expansion were designed to avert depression; they also left abundant liquidity in the system just as supply constraints bit, amplifying price pressures.

Yet important differences separate the current landscape from the 1970s. Inflation expectations

Policy Tool Effect on Other Factor

Fight Inflation Raise Interest Rates/ Further dampens economic growth & Tighten Fiscal Policy increases unemployment (worsens stagnation)

Fight Stagnation Cut Interest Rates/ Fuels inflation Stimulate Demand (worsens price rises)

This inherent conflict produces policy paralysis, in which efforts to address one side of the problem aggravate the other and the malaise lingers. For households, the damage is immediate. Prices rise faster than wages, so pay packets buy less and savings are eroded; the labour market grows more fragile as firms trim investment and hiring; and financial markets struggle as equities face profit squeezes from higher input costs and softer demand while fixed-income investors see real returns eaten away by inflation. Everyday life becomes a tightrope walk in which bills climb, job security weakens, and traditional portfolio hedges fail to deliver relief.

today, while higher than central banks would like, appear more firmly anchored thanks to decades of credible inflation targeting and swift, forceful rate hikes since 2022. Energy vulnerability is also different. The United States, now a net energy exporter, is less exposed to external oil shocks than it was half a century ago, and Europe is diversifying away from single-supplier dependence with unprecedented speed, even if the transition remains costly. Labour markets, despite softer growth, have stayed resilient in many advanced economies. Unemployment rates, the missing ingredient in a textbook stagflationary episode, have not surged in the

"The most pronounced period of stagflation arrived in the 1970s and reshaped economic theory and policy across the developed world. In the UK and the US, the decade’s turmoil was triggered by a sequence of supply shocks, most notably the 1973 oil crisis."

way they did fifty years ago, limiting the scale of the “misery index” even as price levels adjusted.

The most plausible near-term outcome is therefore not a full-blown rerun but a slowergrowing, higher-inflation regime—a kind of stagflation-lite that still imposes real costs. Central banks face the delicate task of finishing the job on inflation without breaking labour markets or triggering destabilising recessions. Governments, saddled with higher debt after pandemic support and energy subsidies, have less fiscal room to cushion shocks and must choose carefully between targeted relief and measures that risk reflating demand. Businesses, squeezed between persistent cost pressure and cautious consumers, will rely on productivity improvements, supply-chain diversification, and pricing power to defend margins.

For households and investors, the implication is a period that may feel grindingly uncomfortable rather than catastrophic. Wage growth will need time to rebuild real incomes; spending patterns will adjust toward essentials; and portfolio construction will place a premium on inflationresilient cash flows, shorter-duration fixed income as policy rates remain elevated, and selective real assets that can reprice with inflation. None of this carries the drama of the 1970s, but the cumulative effect can still be bruising.

In sum, structural changes and credible monetary regimes make a full reprise of the 1970s unlikely, yet the ingredients for a lengthy spell of sluggish growth with stubbornly elevated prices are plainly present. The global economy is tiptoeing along a narrow ledge between disinflation and downturn. Hold that balance, and the spectre fades; slip, and the phantom menace returns—not as a historical reenactment, but as a modern echo with consequences of its own. i

The Death of Keynes: Economists Who Re-Wrote the Rules to Tame Stagflation

The toxic crisis of 1970s stagflation shattered the post-war Keynesian consensus, which had assumed a tidy trade-off between inflation and unemployment. When prices spiralled even as growth stalled, the Phillips Curve stopped behaving and so did policy. Out of that wreckage, a new cadre of economists—advancing monetarism and supply-side theory—forged the intellectual arsenal ultimately deployed to break the malaise and recast the goals and methods of macroeconomic management.

The simultaneity of high inflation and weak output exposed the limits of demandmanagement orthodoxy. Keynesian fine-tuning through fiscal stimulus could not resolve a problem born of unanchored expectations and adverse supply shocks. Milton Friedman, the lodestar of monetarism, had long argued that inflation is “always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” The core error, in his telling, was permissive central banking that allowed money growth to run far ahead of real activity. With Edmund Phelps, Friedman introduced expectations into the analysis of inflation and employment, undermining the idea of a stable, exploitable Phillips Curve. Once workers and firms anticipate higher inflation, they build it into wage bargaining and price setting; the economy gravitates to a “natural rate” of unemployment at any given inflation expectation. Try to buy permanently lower unemployment with stimulus, and you merely ratchet up prices.

Those ideas travelled from seminar room to policy suite via a broader intellectual shift. Robert Lucas’s critique warned that policy evaluations based on historical correlations were unreliable because people change behaviour when rules change. The upshot was a new emphasis on rules, credibility and expectations—not just instruments. In Europe, the Bundesbank’s antiinflation discipline embodied that ethos; in the US, it would be dramatised by Paul Volcker.

Installed at the Federal Reserve in 1979, Volcker recast the central bank’s operating framework. Rather than steering short-term rates with a light touch, he targeted monetary aggregates and tolerated—indeed engineered—sky-high interest rates to squeeze money growth and break the wage-price spiral. The policy inflicted a brutal recession, shuttered capacity and drove unemployment sharply higher. But it

re-anchored expectations, sent a clear signal that the Fed would defend price stability, and restored the institution’s credibility. Inflation, once embedded, began to retreat.

If monetarism supplied the map for conquering inflation, supply-side economics addressed the stagnation. Arthur Laffer and contemporaries argued that punitive marginal tax rates, heavy regulation and distorted incentives throttled work, saving and investment. The remedy— adopted in the United States under Ronald Reagan and echoed in the United Kingdom under Margaret Thatcher—combined broad-based tax reform, deregulation and liberalisation of product and labour markets. The objective was to shift the economy’s productive frontier outward, so growth could resume without reigniting the very price pressures Volcker had subdued. In Britain, parallel measures—tight money, curbs on union power and the dismantling of incomes policies— reinforced the turn away from discretionary demand management toward a rules-based, market-oriented framework.

By the late 1980s, the intellectual balance had decisively moved. Central banking elevated price stability to its primary mandate; operational independence and inflation targeting spread across advanced economies. Fiscal strategy placed greater weight on long-run incentives and structural efficiency than on short-run pumppriming. In academia, the “New Keynesian” synthesis absorbed the lessons: nominal rigidities still matter, but expectations, credible rules and supply capacity are central to macro outcomes. The Keynesian toolkit was not discarded, but it was permanently constrained by the recognition that you cannot purchase lasting employment gains with surprise inflation, and you cannot outgrow structural drag without fixing the structures.

The defeat of stagflation was therefore as much an intellectual revolution as a policy one. Friedman’s expectations-augmented view of inflation, Lucas’s insistence on credible rules, Volcker’s willingness to pay the short-term price for long-term stability, and the supply-side focus on incentives together rewrote the playbook. In their wake, the postwar faith in fine-tuned demand management gave way to a regime that prizes anchored expectations, disciplined money and growth built on competitive, flexible supply. i

> The Humanity We Missed: How a New Paradigm is Changing the Way We See Autism

For decades, science and society defined autism by a language of deficits, loss, and "otherness." But led by the voices of those who have been misunderstood, a quiet revolution is challenging the idea of "reduced humanity" and revealing the rich, diverse ways of being that have been present all along.

PART I: THE GENESIS OF THE DEFICIT NARRATIVE

From its very inception as a field of study, the formal understanding of autism has been built upon a foundation of perceived deficits. This narrative, woven through early psychoanalytic theory and later enshrined in cognitive science, has systematically framed autistic people as lacking fundamental human capacities. The language used, the concepts proposed, and the societal assumptions that followed all served to characterise neurodivergent individuals as being less than whole, their existence defined by a profound lack of what is considered "normal." To understand this pervasive characterisation, it is necessary to trace its origins and deconstruct its progression from flawed hypothesis to widely held belief.

The Cold Mother and the Empty Self: The First Glimpses of a Flawed View

The very name "autism" has an origin rooted in pathologisation. It was first coined in 1908 by Eugen Bleuler, a Swiss psychiatrist, who used the Greek word autós (self) to describe a "morbid self-admiration and withdrawal" in schizophrenic patients. This initial framing immediately cast self-focused thought not as a neutral or natural trait, but as a kind of moral or psychological sickness. This set a deeply damaging precedent that would permeate decades of research and public understanding.

The true pioneers of modern autism research were Leo Kanner and Hans Asperger, working separately in the 1940s. In 1943, the American child psychiatrist Leo Kanner published a landmark study of 11 children, observing in them a distinct set of behaviours, including social interaction difficulties and a preference for solitude. He termed the condition "early infantile autism," laying the groundwork for its formal recognition as a distinct psychiatric condition. However, Kanner's work, while foundational, would soon contribute to one of the most stigmatising and scientifically baseless theories in the history of the field. In a 1949 paper, Kanner began to suggest that autism may be related to a "Maternal lack of genuine warmth," noting that the children were exposed "from the beginning to parental coldness, obsessiveness, and a mechanical type of attention to material needs".

"The true pioneers of modern autism research were Leo Kanner & Hans Asperger."

This theory was taken to its extreme by the influential psychoanalyst Bruno Bettelheim, who championed the notion that autism was the product of cold, distant, and rejecting mothers, a hypothesis that became known as the "refrigerator mother" theory. In the absence of any biomedical explanation for autism's cause, Bettelheim and other psychoanalysts seized on this idea, portraying mothers as fundamentally incapable of providing the emotional warmth necessary for their child to connect with the world.

Bettelheim's beliefs were so deeply held that he even advocated for a "parentectomy," removing children from their parents, which he saw as the ultimate treatment for this supposed disorder of parenting. This perspective was not merely a clinical diagnosis; it was a social and ethical condemnation that conflated a neurological difference with a deficit of fundamental human emotion and connection. The theory was built on a lack of empirical evidence and a failure to consider any other causal factors, illustrating a profound lack of humility in early research that allowed personal, biased observation to be elevated to scientific theory. It established a baseline for autism as a pathology of human connection, one that was born from a failure in the most basic human bond.

The "Mind-Blind" and the Missing Empathy: Deficits in a New Scientific Age

By the late 1960s and 70s, evidence, including twin studies and neurological research, began to directly refute the "refrigerator mother" theory, finally placing the burden of responsibility back on biology rather than parenting. Bernard Rimland, a psychologist and parent of an autistic child, was a key figure in this pushback, directly attacking the refrigerator mother hypothesis in his 1964 book, Infantile Autism. While this shift was a necessary correction, the central narrative of "reduced humanity" was not abandoned; it was merely re-justified with a different scientific veneer.

In the 1990s, the focus shifted to the cognitive realm. Simon Baron-Cohen, a British researcher, proposed the "mind-blindness" hypothesis. This theory posited that autistic people have a "lack or developmental delay of theory of mind (ToM)," which is the intuitive ability to "mind read" or attribute mental states like beliefs, desires, and intentions to others. The iconic "Sally-Anne" test, which showed that autistic children struggled to predict where a doll would look for a hidden marble, provided what was considered the first empirical evidence for this theory. This model, while a significant advance over the "refrigerator mother" theory, still concluded that autistic individuals were fundamentally incapable of a core human trait—reciprocal social understanding.

Baron-Cohen expanded on this in his 2002 "extreme male brain" hypothesis, which wove in the concept of empathy. He proposed two brain "types": an empathising, female brain and a systemising, male brain. He characterised autistic people as lacking a strong empathic sense but being "incredible systemisers," best able to cope with logical, lawful systems rather than the "high variance or change" of the social world. This hypothesis became a powerful and widely cited model, further cementing the idea that autistic people are a separate, and fundamentally less capable, "brain type" in matters of social and emotional connection. The language of "mind-blindness" and a deficit of empathy provided a seemingly objective, biological justification for the longheld belief that autistic people are less capable of social connection and that they are, at their core, disconnected from the shared human experience.

PART II: A COUNTER-NARRATIVE EMERGES

While the scientific and cultural narratives were defining autism through a lens of deficits, a powerful counter-narrative was quietly emerging, driven by the voices of autistic people themselves. This movement, which would eventually become the neurodiversity paradigm, did not seek to correct the science but to fundamentally reframe the entire conversation, challenging the very premise that autism is a tragedy or a problem to be solved.

The Radical Manifesto: "Don't Mourn for Us"

One of the most foundational texts for the neurodiversity movement is Jim Sinclair's 1993 essay, "Don't Mourn for Us". Delivered as a presentation at a conference on autism and later published in the newsletter of Autism Network International, the essay was addressed directly to parents and served as a radical departure from the prevailing view. Sinclair implored parents not to mourn the loss of a "fantasised normal child," but instead to embrace the autistic child they had.

Sinclair directly challenged the idea of autism as a "shell" or an "appendage". Instead, he argued, "Autism is a way of being. It is pervasive; it colours every experience, every sensation, perception, thought, emotion, and encounter, every aspect of existence". The perceived lack of connection, Sinclair argued, was not an inability to relate but a communication gap, akin to trying to have an intimate conversation with someone who speaks a different language. This powerful essay shifts the focus from an inherent deficit to a societal and interpersonal mismatch. The tragedy, as Sinclair framed it, is not the existence of the autistic person, but that "your world has no place for us to be". This was

Medical Model of Disability

a direct, causal challenge to the deficit model, arguing that the profound difficulties faced by autistic people are not due to an inherent failing, but to the "unaccommodating" nature of society. Sinclair's essay provided the emotional and intellectual bedrock for a new paradigm that would completely challenge the notion of "reduced humanity".

From Medical Condition to Social Identity: The Neurodiversity Paradigm

Building on Sinclair's manifesto, Australian sociologist Judy Singer coined the term "neurodiversity" in her 1998 thesis. She modelled the concept after "biodiversity," arguing that just as biodiversity is essential for a stable ecosystem, so too might neurodiversity be essential for cultural stability. This paradigm frames the diversity within human brain function—including differences in sensory processing, social comfort, and cognition—as a natural and valuable form of human diversity. It advocates for acceptance, respect, and accommodation rather than seeking to "fix" or "cure" autistic people.

This paradigm is rooted in the social model of disability, a framework that directly opposes the

long-held medical model. The medical model views disability as a problem that resides within theindividualand is to be "cured or fixed" through medical intervention and therapy. The social model, however, flips this, viewing disability as a result of societal and environmental barriers. It makes a critical distinction between an impairment—a physical or neurological difference—and a disability—the barriers that society imposes on individuals with that impairment. From this perspective, an autistic person is not disabled by their neurology but is disabled by an unaccommodating environment

This shift in perspective is transformative, turning a medical pathology into a social justice issue. The movement's central mantra, "nothing about us, without us," ensures that the voices and lived experiences of autistic people lead all discussions and decisions about their lives, placing power and expertise in the hands of the very people who have been historically defined by others.

The table below provides a clear comparison of the two models, illustrating how a simple change in perspective can completely alter the understanding of a person's existence.

Social Model of Disability

Core Beliefs Autism is a pathological condition or a disorder. Neurodiversity is a natural and valuable form of human diversity. Source of Disability The individual's deficits or physical/developmental challenges The disability is caused by societal and environmental barriers. are the problem.

Goal of Intervention To normalise, cure, or fix the individual. To accommodate, accept, and include the individual.

Preferred Language Person-first ("person with autism"). Identity-first ("autistic person").

Locus of Change The individual must change to fit into society. Society must change to accommodate diverse ways of being.

PART III: REFRAMING THE TRAITS OF A FULL HUMAN EXPERIENCE

The most powerful argument against the "reduced humanity" narrative comes from reframing the very traits that have been pathologised for decades. By applying the neurodiversity paradigm, traits once viewed as symptoms of a deficit are revealed to be functional, purposeful, and profoundly human expressions of a different way of being.

The Double Empathy Problem: It's Not a Deficit, It's a Mismatch

The "mind-blindness" theory suggested that autistic people were fundamentally incapable of empathy. However, a later theory proposed by autistic scholar Damian Milton, called the "double empathy problem," offers a complete and empirically supported refutation. This theory posits that social and communication difficulties between autistic and non-autistic people are not due to a one-sided lack of empathy from the autistic individual, but rather a "mutual misunderstanding" or "mismatch in communication styles".

Research provides strong evidence for this perspective. Studies show that when autistic people interact with one another, they experience high levels of rapport and mutual understanding. The rapport score for autistic adults significantly declined when they were placed in mixed-neurotype groups. This is compelling proof that the capacity for connection is not lacking in autistic individuals; it is simply hindered by a communication gap between different neurotypes, like "two different languages". The idea that autistic people lack empathy is a "hurtful and misleading" myth. Many autistic people report having "intact or even intense emotional empathy," feeling others' emotions deeply. What is often misinterpreted as a lack of empathy is a difference in expression, or the co-occurrence of a separate condition called alexithymia—a difficulty in recognising one's own emotions—which can affect empathy measures. By reframing the issue as a twoway problem rather than a one-way deficit, the "double empathy problem" completely dismantles the premise of "mind-blindness" and reveals that the "reduced humanity" was, in fact, a perceptual error on the part of a system that lacked the tools to understand a different form of human connection.

Passions, Not Obsessions: Reclaiming the Special Interest

One of the most commonly misunderstood and pathologised traits of autism is the presence of "highly restricted, fixated interests that are abnormal in intensity or focus," as listed in the

Old View (Deficit-Based)

DSM-5. The language itself is negative, framing intense passion as a clinical symptom. However, the neurodiversity paradigm reclaims this trait, reframing it from an obsession to a "special interest" or "passion".

The research shows that these interests, which can be "all-consuming" in their intensity, are a profound source of human flourishing. They are linked to positive mental health outcomes, including lower rates of anxiety and depression. Special interests serve as a tool for emotional regulation and are deeply tied to an autistic person's sense of identity, providing a unique lens through which they view the world and find deep meaning and emotional fulfilment. While neurotypical people may use hobbies to socialise, autistic people often use socialising as a way to deepen their engagement with their special interests, such as joining an online forum to discuss their favourite TV show. What is pathologised as an "abnormal" fixation is, in reality, a powerful source of joy, purpose, and community—a profound and enriching aspect of a full human existence.

Stimming as Self-Regulation: A Necessary Tool, Not a Pathological Behaviour

Stimming, a term for self-stimulatory behaviours like hand flapping, spinning, or humming, has long been viewed as an unusual, meaningless, and sometimes pathological trait. This characterisation, a form of "stereotypy" in the medical model, reinforces the idea of robotic or less-than-human behaviour. However, stimming is a vital and functional coping mechanism that serves a crucial purpose in the lives of many autistic people.

Stimming helps individuals "channel and manage excess energy" and "self sooth," providing a way to regulate emotions and block out overwhelming sensory, social, or emotional input. It is a form of self-regulation that can improve mood, focus, and information processing. The suppression of stimming, which is often a goal in traditional therapies, can have severe negative consequences, leading to a build-up of uncomfortable energy that may result in "meltdowns, shutdowns, poor mental health, or burnout". By reframing stimming from a meaningless, pathological behaviour to a necessary and functional tool for navigating a challenging world, the neurodiversity paradigm replaces a narrative of deficit with one of sophisticated self-care and adaptation.

The table below summarises this powerful reframing, demonstrating how a change in perspective and language can reveal the inherent purpose and value in behaviours that have been historically misunderstood.

"By applying the neurodiversity paradigm, traits once viewed as symptoms of a deficit are revealed to be functional, purposeful, and profoundly human expressions of a different way of being."

PART IV: A PATH TO ACCEPTANCE

The history of autism research is a stark illustration of how a narrative of "reduced humanity" was not a reflection of an objective truth but a projection of a flawed system's inability to comprehend a different neurology. Early theories, from the moralistic blame of the "refrigerator mother" to the cognitive-deficit framework of "mind-blindness," were all built on a single, fundamentally flawed premise: that a rich and diverse way of being could be measured and judged against a single "normal" standard. The deficit was never in the autistic person; it was a deficit of understanding in the systems designed to study them.

This narrative is now being dismantled by the neurodiversity movement, a social justice movement led by the very people who have been historically silenced. This movement is not asking for a cure for their existence. Instead, it is demanding the right to exist fully and authentically, advocating for a world built on principles of "presuming competence" and "validating differences" rather than on a need to normalise or conform.

The tragedy, as Jim Sinclair first articulated, is not that autistic people exist, but that "your world has no place for us to be". The path forward is not about "fixing" people but about creating an inclusive society with a place for everyone. It requires a shift from a clinical lens that defines individuals by their impairments to a social lens that defines them by their potential and their full, rich humanity. This is not about feeling sympathy for "lesser" people but about recognising a different, and equally valuable, form of human existence. The neurodiversity paradigm is a powerful call to action, demanding that we rethink our environments, our attitudes, and our very definition of what it means to be a complete human being. i

New View (Neurodiversity-Affirming)

Social Difficulties Social deficits, "mind-blindness," lack of empathy. The "Double Empathy Problem," a two-way communication gap.

Special Interests "Fixated interests," "abnormal intensity". Passions, hyperfocus, a source of joy, purpose, and identity.

Repetitive Behaviors Stereotypy, self-stimulatory behaviour. Stimming, a crucial self-regulation and coping mechanism.

A A Paradigm Shift: How Simon Baron-Cohen's Views Have Evolved

pioneer of the "mind-blindness" hypothesis now argues that the "autistic brain" may hold the key to human invention. His journey reflects a broader shift in science from a focus on deficits to a celebration of neurodiversity.

Based on a review of his recent work, Simon Baron-Cohen's current views do not align with the narrow, deficit-based language of his earlier theories. While he continues to explore the core concepts of "mind-blindness" and the "extreme male brain" hypothesis, he has reframed them significantly, moving from a focus on deficits to an emphasis on neurodiversity and unique strengths.

From "Mind-Blindness" to Nuanced Cognitive Empathy: While his early work posited that autistic people have a "lack or developmental

delay" of what he called "Theory of Mind" (ToM), he later acknowledged that this was a "very narrow view" that "missed a lot, particularly the role of emotions". In more recent research, he has continued to study ToM—now often referred to as "cognitive empathy"—and its relationship to autism. However, his focus has shifted to exploring the genetic basis of this trait, arguing that it is partly heritable and that individual differences in this area are tied to specific genetic variants.

From "Extreme Male Brain" Deficit to "HyperSystemising" Strength: While the "extreme male brain" hypothesis characterised autistic people as lacking empathy and being better at systemising, his more recent work has celebrated "hyper-systemising" as a profound and positive human trait. In his book,

The Pattern Seekers, he argues that the ability to "systemise" — the drive to analyse and build rule-based systems — is not a deficit but is the very foundation of human invention and has been crucial to creative and cultural history. He contends that the genes associated with autism also include genes for talent in pattern recognition and understanding how things work.

Baron-Cohen now explicitly frames autism not just as a disability, but also as a "difference in how the brain develops". He asserts that by focusing on what autistic people can do better than others, society can unlock their "huge potential to contribute to the world". His recent writing is a direct appeal for a more welcoming and inclusive society that recognises and values autistic individuals and their unique strengths. i

Navigating the Digital Vortex: The Existential Challenge for Business Schools >

The digital revolution is not merely changing how firms operate; it is redefining the skills, behaviours and ethics required to compete. For business schools, the choice is stark: embed digital fluency, critical thinking and responsible leadership at the core of their mission—or slide into irrelevance.

For decades, core curricula revolved around finance, marketing, operations and human resources. These foundations remain essential, but they are no longer sufficient. Employers now expect graduates who are digitally fluent—able to interrogate data, reason with algorithms, and make informed trade-offs between speed, scale and risk.

Data analytics and business intelligence must move beyond dashboard literacy to genuine analytical reasoning. Graduates should be able to formulate the right questions, assemble and clean datasets, select appropriate models and translate findings into commercial action. Artificial intelligence and machine learning belong alongside strategy and operations, not as elective curiosities. Students should understand where AI creates value—automation, prediction, personalisation—and where it introduces ethical hazards: bias, opacity, accountability and workforce displacement.

Digital marketing and e-commerce are no longer niche: customer journeys, attribution models and platform economics are now basic managerial grammar. Cybersecurity awareness must be universal. In a world of ubiquitous APIs, third-party risk and data residency rules, every manager needs to grasp the commercial consequences of breaches and the governance required to prevent them.

Equally, the “soft” skills have become hard constraints on performance. As routine work is automated, the premium shifts to judgment under uncertainty, creativity, systems thinking and the ability to lead distributed teams. Emotional intelligence, cross-cultural communication and ethical reasoning are not finishing-school refinements; they are prerequisites for licence to operate in markets shaped by scrutiny and regulation.

The integration imperative is clear. A finance student should be able to assess how machine-

learning models change credit risk and capital allocation. A marketing student should design experiments, interpret lift with statistical discipline and understand the costs of poor data hygiene. An operations student should model digital supply chains, scenario-test shocks and evaluate resilience investments. Digital fluency must be woven through every discipline, not bolted on as a specialist track.

PEDAGOGY: BEYOND THE LECTURE HALL

The lecture-dominant model—knowledge transmitted to passive recipients—struggles in a domain where content decays quickly. The half-life of a technology module is measured in months; the half-life of a mindset is far longer. Business schools must privilege methods that build adaptable thinkers.

Project-based and work-integrated learning should become the norm. Partnerships with corporates, start-ups and public agencies can generate live briefs where students apply theory to messy data, imperfect constraints and real stakeholders. Simulations and extended reality add safe arenas to practise negotiation, crisis response and supply-chain orchestration at low cost and high fidelity. Assessment should reward experimentation and reflection, not merely correct answers.

Continuous learning must be institutionalised. The four-year degree as a terminal credential is increasingly anachronistic. Schools need modular pathways, micro-credentials and stackable qualifications that enable alumni to upskill and reskill across a career. Credit recognition between degree and non-degree offerings should be seamless. Faculty roles will evolve from content lecturers to designers, curators and coaches— updating syllabi at market cadence and guiding students through ambiguous problem spaces.

INSTITUTIONAL HURDLES: FUNDING, FACULTY AND INERTIA

Transformation is not only curricular; it is organisational. Investment is required in data

labs, secure cloud environments, low-code/ no-code platforms, cyber ranges and maker spaces. With public funding under pressure and competition from online providers intensifying, schools must prioritise ruthlessly and partner creatively—co-building facilities with industry, sharing infrastructure across departments and tapping philanthropic capital with clear impact metrics.

Faculty development is pivotal. Many academics are leaders in their domains but may lack handson experience with emerging tools. Schools should provide structured upskilling—short sprints on data engineering, applied AI, digital ethics and pedagogy at scale—supported by instructional designers and technologists. Hiring must widen: practitioners with product, data or venture backgrounds can enrich teaching and research, provided governance preserves academic standards.

Inertia remains the quiet adversary. Legacy structures, committee cycles and risk aversion slow decision-making. Deans will need operating models that allow for pilot-and-scale approaches, sandboxes for curricular experimentation and fast feedback loops from employers. Accreditation standards are not barriers if interpreted with intent; many now explicitly recognise innovation in delivery and assurance of learning.

A PLAYBOOK FOR RENEWAL

Rewire the core. Place data, AI, digital strategy and ethics at the centre of the required curriculum. Build capstones where multidisciplinary teams tackle real briefs that integrate finance, operations, technology and sustainability.

Teach the stack, not just the tool. Students should understand how data flows from source to insight—governance, privacy, security, model lifecycle and deployment. Tool choices will change; architectural thinking endures.

Measure what matters. Track graduate outcomes beyond first jobs: adaptability, promotions in

digital roles, entrepreneurial activity and impact metrics tied to ESG. Share results transparently to signal accountability.

Blur campus boundaries. Create co-ops and credit-bearing apprenticeships; embed visiting executives-in-residence; co-teach with industry; syndicate projects across global partner schools to mirror distributed work.

Invest in values and guardrails. Establish digital ethics clinics and responsibility frameworks that guide product design, data use and AI deployment. Ensure students practise confronting trade-offs between growth, fairness and compliance.

Monetise lifelong learning. Build scalable executive and online portfolios aligned to employer skill gaps. Offer subscription models for alumni access to short courses, labs and career services, turning the degree into a relationship, not a transaction.

RESEARCH WITH RELEVANCE

Scholarly output must keep pace with practice without sacrificing rigour. Priority areas include algorithmic governance, digital competition policy, platform labour, data markets, cybersecurity economics, climate tech and the productivity paradox of AI adoption. Crossdisciplinary centres can connect economists, computer scientists, behavioural scholars and legal experts around shared questions. Industry partnerships should provide data access; in return, schools deliver independent evaluation and policy-relevant insights.

INFRASTRUCTURE AND GOVERNANCE

Technology alone does not transform; governance does. Schools need secure, compliant environments for teaching and research data; clear policies on IP and industry collaboration; and procurement that favours interoperability and accessibility. Student support services should mirror modern work: career coaching for portfolio careers, entrepreneurship support, and mental-health resources attuned to always-on digital cultures.

Boards and advisory councils should include leaders from technology, venture and regulation to challenge assumptions and surface emerging risks. KPIs must align with the transformation agenda: programme agility, time-to-market for new courses, partnership depth and the proportion of teaching delivered through experiential formats.

THE STRATEGIC CHOICE

The digital economy rewards speed, learning and integrity. Business schools that internalise these principles—updating curricula at the pace of the market, teaching students how to learn as technologies evolve, and

embedding responsible practice—will remain vital institutions. Those that treat “digital” as a bolt-on elective will drift to the margins, out-competed by specialised providers and employer academies.

The existential challenge is therefore an opportunity. By marrying analytical depth to technological fluency and ethical leadership, business schools can produce graduates who do more than operate today’s firms—they can build tomorrow’s. The institutions that act decisively now will shape the next generation of managers, founders and policymakers. The rest risk becoming case studies in their own decline. i

Partnering for the Digital Age: Leading Business Schools

The task of preparing graduates for a data-driven economy is not met uniformly across the sector, but a cohort of leading business schools is setting a new standard by forging deep, long-horizon partnerships with industry. These collaborations reach far beyond internships, embedding firms directly into curriculum design, assessment and delivery so that teaching remains relevant, applied and forward-looking.

Imperial College Business School exemplifies the model. With technology and innovation at its core, Imperial has cultivated dense ties with London’s finance and start-up ecosystems. Its FinTech programmes were co-created with input from major banks and high-growth ventures, combining guest lectures from practising leaders with live company projects that put students into real product, risk and regulatory challenges. Proximity to the “Silicon Roundabout” hub sustains a constant feedback loop, enabling syllabi to adjust at market pace and ensuring students graduate fluent in current tools and methods as well as the underlying economics.

Across the Atlantic, MIT Sloan leverages the Institute’s world-class engineering

and computer science heritage. Executive education and degree offerings in AI, analytics and digital transformation are frequently delivered alongside technology partners, giving participants access to the latest research, platforms and deployment playbooks. The result is an education that blends managerial judgement with practical exposure to cuttingedge applications.

Carnegie Mellon University’s Tepper School of Business has built a reputation on analytical rigour through close collaboration with the university’s School of Computer Science. Interdisciplinary pathways ensure business students learn with—and from—technologists, translating models into market strategies and data into operational advantage.

By drawing industry into the classroom and placing students into live problem sets, these schools are narrowing the gap between theory and practice. The lesson is clear: the future of business education will be shaped not in isolation, but through structured, symbiotic partnership with the private sector.

North America’s Infrastructure Renaissance: Rebuilding for a Resilient Future

North America, defined by vast landscapes and tightly linked economies, is deep into a reshape of its infrastructure. For decades, roads, bridges, railways and utilities were run beyond their intended lifespan. Underinvestment left a network widely judged ageing and inadequate. A decisive shift is now under way. Spurred by ambitious public programmes, competitive pressure, and the dual demands of climate risk and digital transformation, governments and markets are mobilising billions to modernise legacy assets and build the next generation of connectivity. The goal is not to patch potholes but to create a resilient, sustainable and digitally enabled platform for growth that can withstand shocks and broaden opportunity.

The scale reflects a shared view that modern infrastructure is a precondition for dynamism, safety and quality of life. From US urban corridors to Canada’s resource-rich expanses and Mexico’s industrial hubs, each nation is contributing to a continental renewal that is drawing capital and catalysing innovation across transport, energy, water and the digital backbone that will drive future productivity.

THE CASE FOR INVESTMENT

Decades of deferred maintenance have produced structurally deficient bridges, capacity-strained transit and water networks in urgent need of replacement. The productivity cost—lost time, inefficiency and higher operating expenses— has become impossible to ignore. Leaders increasingly see world-class infrastructure as a competitive asset: efficient transport lowers supply-chain costs; dependable energy supports re-industrialisation and data-centre growth; advanced networks enable innovation and service delivery. Major projects also create jobs, supporting skilled trades and technical professions while strengthening local supplier ecosystems.

Climate change has reset design standards. Assets are engineered for floods, wildfires and other extremes, with decarbonisation embedded through renewable generation, grid modernisation and EV charging. Nature-based solutions—wetlands, tree canopies, permeable surfaces—complement hard defences. Digital transformation adds a further layer: 5G, fibre and hyperscale data centres have become essential utilities, enabling remote work, e-commerce, smart operations and AI. Bridging the digital divide in rural and underserved communities is now central to equitable growth. Rapid urbanisation demands new housing, mass transit and upgraded water systems to sustain liveability and long-term productivity.

NATIONS AT THE FOREFRONT

The United States is delivering its most significant push in decades via the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, aimed at renewal and expansion. Funds cover road and bridge repair, metro extensions and bus rapid transit, and passenger and freight rail, including corridor upgrades and new high-speed links. Airports and ports are being

modernised to lift capacity and efficiency, while water programmes replace ageing pipes and lead lines. A nationwide broadband initiative targets access gaps, and the grid is being reinforced to integrate renewables and improve reliability. Equity and resilience sit alongside growth, with project selection tied to community benefit and climate alignment.

Canada’s agenda matches its vast geography. Clean power—hydro, wind, solar and carboncapture pilots—supports the target of a netzero electricity system by 2035. Transport links that move commodities to market are being upgraded, while major cities extend subways, light rail and bus networks to cut congestion and emissions. Digital inclusion programmes bring high-speed internet to remote and Indigenous communities. New infrastructure for critical minerals—mines, processing and logistics— reinforces continental supply chains and crossborder resilience.

Mexico is modernising to sustain manufacturing leadership and capture near-shoring under USMCA. The Maya Train integrates tourism, logistics and regional development; port expansions raise cargo throughput; and energy investments—from gas terminals to new generation—aim to meet industrial demand. Automotive supply chains are being strengthened with new plants and industrial parks, while a data-centre build-out around Querétaro supports cloud and enterprise needs. Urban mobility schemes, including Mexico City’s cable-car and BRT, seek to cut travel times and improve access to jobs.

WHAT IS BEING BUILT

Common themes define the renaissance. Resilience and climate adaptation now shape briefs, with stronger bridges, elevated roads, improved drainage and coastal protections reflecting a build-for-the-century mindset. Intelligence is embedded: sensors, IoT and AI analytics monitor condition, predict maintenance, optimise traffic and enhance safety. Sustainability is hard-wired—from gigawatt-scale renewables and storage to lowcarbon materials and green-building codes that cut lifecycle emissions. Connectivity is conceived as multimodal: roads, rail, ports and airports are planned as integrated systems to remove

bottlenecks and speed passenger and freight flows.

Water security has returned to the foreground. Drought-prone regions are investing in desalination, advanced reuse and leak-reduction; flood-prone cities are expanding stormwater capacity and green infrastructure. Digital infrastructure grows in tandem, with data-centre clusters aligning to clean power and fibre routes and cybersecurity now core to design. Financing is evolving: public–private partnerships and blended capital mobilise private expertise, while green and resilience bonds broaden investor bases and align capital with climate goals.

EXECUTION RISKS—AND THE RESPONSE

Funding gaps remain relative to the scale of need, reinforcing the case for durable revenue mechanisms and innovative finance beyond annual budgets. Permitting remains complex; the task is to accelerate approvals without diluting environmental or safety standards via clearer timelines and digital workflows. Skills shortages across engineering, construction and operations risk delays and higher costs, prompting investment in vocational training, apprenticeships and targeted immigration. Supply-chain disruptions and inflation complicate procurement, requiring more agile contracting and standardised designs. Political continuity matters: multi-year programmes need steadiness across electoral cycles, with transparent pipelines and independent oversight to keep projects on track.

These headwinds are being met with a tighter focus on resilient design, digital integration and accountable delivery. Asset-management disciplines—baseline assessment, performancebased maintenance and real-time monitoring— are moving centre stage, extending asset life and improving safety. Deeper community engagement, including local hiring and smallbusiness participation, helps ensure widely shared gains. For businesses and investors, opportunities span smart-city platforms, advanced materials, grid software, cleanenergy assets and next-generation logistics. The continent is not merely repairing the past; it is constructing a future tuned to a low-carbon, data-driven economy—brick by resilient, digitally enabled brick. i

"Mexico is modernising to sustain manufacturing leadership and capture near-shoring under USMCA. The Maya Train integrates tourism, logistics and regional development; port expansions raise cargo throughput; and energy investments—from gas terminals to new generation—aim to meet industrial demand. "

> Kellogg Insight

Take 5: AI’s Past, Present, and Future

Artificial intelligence is transforming business, science, marketing, and labor. Kellogg faculty tell us how we got here and what could be next.

The rise of artificial intelligence has been rapid and broad, with rampant excitement—and concern—about how the technology will transform industries, the economy, and people’s lives.

In this roundup, we dive into research and insights from Kellogg faculty on AI’s past, present, and future, and its implications for scientists, advertisers, and the labor force.

1.

AN OVERNIGHT SUCCESS THAT TOOK DECADES

While the ubiquity of artificial intelligence may seem like it happened all at once and very recently, its foundations were laid over the last century by mathematicians and engineers.

“We’ve accomplished a lot; we’ve come a long way in AI,” Kellogg finance professor Sergio Rebelo noted in a recent webinar on the past and future of AI. “But this progress only happened after many years of failures.”

Rebelo described how false assumptions about how to build computer programs with expertise hamstrung its progress. And he noted that this progress was possible because of sustained research funding.

“We are where we are because, despite failing for 50 years, the government has kept funding this research,” he says.

Despite all of the growth, AI still has plenty of issues that need to be solved. Hallucination, in which AI makes up part of the information it provides, is a common one. But from Rebelo’s viewpoint, deciding to stop using AI tools out of fear is a mistake—one that will only set people further back.

“There’s a lot of anxiety about people being replaced by AI,” Rebelo says. “I’m going to tell you—the first people who will be replaced are those who don’t know how to use AI. And they will be replaced not by AI but by people who know how to use AI.”

2. TIME TO TRAIN THE RESEARCHERS

While artificial intelligence is often discussed as a game-changer for business, some think its most significant impact may be in another setting: the laboratory.

“I’d argue the central question today in AI is about whether AI can make new scientific

“I’d argue the central question today in AI is about whether AI can make new scientific discoveries, which is commonly viewed as the crucial milestone toward artificial general intelligence.”

Dashun Wang

discoveries, which is commonly viewed as the crucial milestone toward artificial general intelligence,” says Dashun Wang, a professor of management and organisations at Kellogg, where he also directs the Center for Science of Science and Innovation (CSSI) and codirects the Ryan Institute on Complexity.

To better understand how AI is currently benefiting science and how it will benefit science in the future, Wang and Jian Gao, a former research assistant professor at CSSI, assessed how scientists have used the technology over the past decade.

They found that, while AI has become widely used and influential, its benefits are unevenly distributed—with fewer advantages bestowed on disciplines that have higher shares of female and minority researchers, such as sociology.

They also found a huge gap in which disciplines are prepared to take advantage of AI. Beyond three core computational disciplines—computer science, mathematics, and engineering— disciplines were not investing enough in teaching AI-relevant skills to graduate students and junior scientists to achieve the full benefits from AI.

Their research pointed to a deep reliance on peers who have specialised knowledge to bridge the AI-training gap. This suggests that fully utilising AI in science could require not just more funding to train scientists but more opportunities for interdisciplinary collaboration.

“Some institutions are launching interdisciplinary research centers, which encourage faculties from different disciplines to have conversations on how to leverage different AI tools and advances,” Gao says. “That would give researchers more exposure to each other to potentially learn from each other, when they’re actually doing research together.”

3. THE REAL AND THE FAKE

As simple as it is to generate realistic-looking images using AI, it can be more difficult to

identify which online images are authentic and which have been AI-generated. But the diffusion models that transform text prompts into images tend to generate what Matt Groh calls “artifacts and implausibilities” that can offer viewers clues about the images’ origins.

“These models learn to reverse noise in images and generate pixel patterns in images that match text descriptions,” says Groh, an assistant professor of management and organisations at Kellogg. “But these models are never trained to learn concepts like spelling or the laws of physics or human anatomy or simple functional interactions between buttons on your shirt and straps on your backpack.”

Groh, along with colleagues Negar Kamali, Karyn Nakamura, Angelos Chatzimparmpas, and Jessica Hullman, recently used three text-toimage AI systems (Midjourney, Stable Diffusion, and Firefly) to generate a curated suite of images that illustrate some of the most common artifacts and implausibilities.

So what should you look for in an image to determine whether it may be artificially generated?

As you peruse an image you think may be artificially generated, taking a quick inventory of a subject’s body parts is an easy first step. AI models often create bodies that can appear uncommon—and even fantastical. So if the people in your image have extra limbs or digits, a face with hollow eyes or oddly shaped pupils, overlapping teeth, or other anatomical implausibilities, you may be looking at a fake.

Other signs include unrealistic coloring or skin textures, over-perfected portraits, mismatched lighting, gibberish texts, glitches in the appearance of common objects like backpacks and staircases, and unlikely interactions between people and things. Noticing these unusual details gives you an opportunity to slow down and check for further evidence that the image you’re looking at could be AI-generated.

"While marketers might view this as an opportunity to lean into deep personalisation, for consumers, this new frontier of messaging requires them to be even more mindful of the content they read online."

“We as humans do operate on context,” Groh says. ‘We think about different cultures and what would be appropriate and what is a little bit like, ‘If that really happened, I probably would have heard about this.’”

For more tips and examples, Groh and his team have put together a handy report that is worth perusing.

4. HOW AI MIGHT SHAPE THE FUTURE OF WORK

Despite the push to incorporate artificial intelligence into a variety of workplace settings, it may be a long time before AI comes for your, or anyone else’s, job.

“Decades of research shows that fear is unfounded,” says Kellogg’s Hatim Rahman, an assistant professor of management and organisations.

In a recent The Insightful Leader Live webinar, Rahman described how AI’s incorporation into our work lives may not happen overnight.

“It’s going to take a long time for it to penetrate an industry, especially in ways that will affect your career,” says Rahman. Much will depend, then, upon how we choose to deploy it. And there is time for us to make this choice collectively and deliberately.

We can choose to use AI to replace as many workers as possible—or we can instead choose to use AI to bolster talent and identify it in underrecognised places. We can choose to let machines make the bulk of the decisions around our healthcare, education, and defense—or we can choose to keep humans at the helm, ensuring that human values and priorities rule the day.

Critical to prioritising humans in this process is offering people across the workforce an opportunity to shape the employment decisions that affect them, “because without diverse voices and stakeholders, the design and implementation of AI has [reflected], and will reflect, a very narrow group of people’s interest,” Rahman says.

You can watch Rahman’s webinar here.

5. THE FUTURE OF PERSONALISED ADS

Imagine being moved by every ad you see online as if the advertisers know you, your personality, and the things that matter to you.

In the age of generative artificial intelligence, marketers will be able to mine our expanding digital footprints to make highly personalised ads, says Jacob Teeny, an assistant professor of marketing at the Kellogg School of Management.

“This specific influence tactic, personalised persuasion, is now going to be more scalable and widely deployed than ever before,” Teeny says.

Teeny and his research colleagues recently designed a series of studies to see how customers reacted to personalised pitches written by ChatGPT. They found that AI was able to write messages tailored to people’s complex psychological profiles, and these messages were more persuasive than non-tailored or generic messages.

Even when participants in a study were told that the ads they were being shown were generated by AI, that did not change the messages’ effectiveness. This is notable because prior research has shown that people try to resist being swayed when they know someone is trying to persuade them.

“We’ve seen a bit of cultural shifting in terms of the acceptability of being persuaded. When we go online, we know we’re getting targeted ads. And because that’s just become the norm so much, I think people are more OK with it,” Teeny said.

While marketers might view this as an opportunity to lean into deep personalisation, for consumers, this new frontier of messaging requires them to be even more mindful of the content they read online.

“We’re going to be inundated with things that naturally feel like they appeal to us. So we might have to take a second step to really investigate the source or the veracity of the message— whether that’s in regard to a consumer product or in regard to a political news article,” Teeny says.

“When you have such a large market, it makes sense to produce in that market.” i

Otaviano Canuto: De-dollarisation, Local Currencies, and External Financial Defence

INTRODUCTION

Since the Second World War, the international monetary system has been dominated by the US dollar. Dollar hegemony survived the end of the Bretton Woods exchange standard and emerged from both the global financial crisis and the euro-area crisis stronger than before. Although the euro area and China are taking steps to elevate the international role of their currencies, matching the dollar’s fundamental strengths cannot be assumed.

This paper first reviews the forces underpinning the dollar’s dominance—implying that any dedollarisation is likely to be partial and bounded— then examines two domains where alternatives have gained visibility: the growing use of local currencies in cross-border payments between China and partners, and the part played by the euro and the renminbi (RMB) in cross-country financial safety nets.

‘DE-DOLLARISATION’: PARTIAL AND LIMITED

Recent initiatives to extend RMB use, alongside a modest relative decline in the dollar share of global reserves, have reignited debate about a possible de-dollarisation of the world economy. Directly or indirectly, the United States remains the principal supplier of safe, liquid assets; the issuer of the leading trade-invoicing currency; the central bank with the most powerful international transmission; and the pre-eminent lender of last resort. These attributes reinforce each other. Widespread dollar invoicing encourages borrowing in dollars; robust lender-of-last-resort backstops make borrowing in dollars safer; and the network scales from there. The gravitational pull leaves Washington as the “sun” around which the currency system orbits.

Sweeping financial sanctions on Russia by the United States and allies since the invasion of Ukraine prompted speculation that weaponised access to reserves in dollars, euros, sterling and yen would fragment the monetary order. In that reading, China would accelerate RMB internationalisation and payment-system autonomy, while countries exposed to geopolitical frictions with the West would pivot from the dollar system. “De-dollarisation” and a more “multipolar” or “bipolar” system thus became watchwords. Yet ambition still outstrips reality.

Currencies as means of payment

It is crucial to distinguish between a currency used to settle transactions (means of payment) and one held as a store of value. While payments

"The dollar’s international role far exceeds the US share of world output. Its prevalence in invoicing, international debt issuance, and cross-border lending dwarfs what raw US weights in trade and finance would imply."

can drive reserve accumulation, flows and stocks are not the same—and transactions can be netted without large reserve holdings. Brazil’s 2023 agreement with China allows bilateral trade settlement in local currencies with periodic netting. A similar mechanism—the Latin American Agreement on Reciprocal Payments and Credits—operated from 1982; Brazil exited in 2019, with residual obligations to 2026.

Most foreign-exchange turnover reflects financial, not trade, transactions. China’s large trade footprint supports RMB usage in trade finance and settlement, but not necessarily in wholesale finance. When the RMB joined the IMF’s SDR basket in 2015, the decision reflected China’s trade weight more than global financial usage.

The dollar’s international role far exceeds the US share of world output. Its prevalence in invoicing, international debt issuance, and cross-border lending dwarfs what raw US weights in trade and finance would imply. Trade can, of course, catalyse trade finance in the home currency. The RMB’s share of trade finance more than doubled after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine— rising from under 2 percent in February 2022 to 4.5 percent a year later and peaking near 6 percent in 2023, briefly overtaking the euro, before easing in 2024. This reflected both Russia-related transactions and higher dollar funding costs during the Fed’s tightening cycle. However, RMB use in Swift payments plateaued around 2 percent.

China’s pre-2015 push to internationalise the RMB stalled after the August 2015 devaluation triggered capital flight and stricter controls. Since early 2022, the PBoC has again nudged RMB use—especially in commodities settlement and access to RMB-linked derivatives—while retaining tight capital-account management.

Currencies as stores of value

Central banks require reserve assets to operate in FX markets. For decades, roughly two-thirds of global reserves were held in US Treasuries

and other dollar assets. A gradual diversification occurred in the 2000s, but neither the euro’s launch nor the global financial crisis durably displaced dollar primacy; indeed, the crisis increased dollar usage in banking and non-bank finance. More recently, the dollar share has edged down: IMF COFER data show a decline from 71 percent in 1999 to 57.3 percent in 2024. The beneficiaries have largely been “non-traditional” reserve currencies (AUD, CAD, CHF and others), including the RMB, rather than sterling, yen or euro.

In level terms, foreign official dollar holdings remain immense. Non-US central banks held about $6.47tn in dollar assets at end-2024. While the dollar share fell from 2014, holdings climbed from $4.4tn in 2014 to $7.1tn by Q3 2021 before easing as the Fed’s QT and rate hikes took hold.

Why de-dollarisation will remain slow and bounded Four gravitational forces favour continued dollar centrality: powerful network and complementarity effects; unrivalled supply of deep, investmentgrade government securities; the rise of an “investment tranche” in reserve management and sovereign wealth funds that still prizes dollar assets; and the absence of capital controls and restrictions that would impede liquidity and availability. China has expanded swap lines and encouraged reserve allocations to the RMB, but a qualitative leap to true reserve-currency status requires confidence in full convertibility sufficient for private investors to hold RMB at scale. By contrast, Fed swap lines have been repeatedly activated as system backstops; RMB swap lines have seen limited use.

Chinese authorities show no sign of prioritising capital-account liberalisation soon. They will likely widen RMB usage where feasible without loosening controls—short of building a full parallel regime. The 2022 portfolio outflows from China, unprecedented in size according to IIF data, underscored the risks: in periods of geopolitical stress, capital can rush for the exits. Given the volume of repressed domestic wealth, a rapid liberalisation could trigger destabilising outflows akin to 2015.

The dollar’s “exorbitant privilege”—or handicap? Valéry Giscard d’Estaing’s “exorbitant privilege” captures how supplying safe assets to the world confers lower funding costs and the ability to exchange paper for goods, services and foreign assets. Safe-asset imbalances show the US and

euro area as providers, with China, Japan, oil producers and emerging Asia as net purchasers. Some argue the privilege can act as a burden: absorbing the world’s excess savings via currentaccount deficits can pressure US balance sheets, raising household or fiscal leverage. That critique should be separated from assessments of currentaccount gaps relative to fundamentals (as in the IMF’s External Sector Reports). Privilege and macro-policy shortcomings are not the same.

Overall, absent a major regime change in China, de-dollarisation will be gradual and shallow. The euro remains largely regional, though its profile could rise if euro-area policy deepens common safe-asset supply. The United States can retain its privilege by continuing to supply dollar safe assets—provided confidence in fiscal sustainability endures and large portfolio rotations away from dollar assets do not materialise.

GROWING USE OF LOCAL CURRENCIES IN CROSSBORDER PAYMENTS

In March 2023, Brazil and China agreed to settle bilateral trade in their own currencies. With China taking over 30 percent of Brazil’s exports and supplying more than 20 percent of its imports, persistent Brazilian surpluses would imply RMB accumulation if the mechanism were fully utilised. At the August 2023 BRICS summit, leaders committed to greater use of national currencies in cross-border payments. Similar moves have proliferated through bilateral central-bank agreements.

Motivations vary: reducing exposure to sanctions risk; economising on convertible-currency reserves; and political signalling. But there are costs. In persistent bilateral surpluses, reserve accumulation occurs in the deficit partner’s currency rather than in a fully convertible one—a portfolio quality trade-off. In practice, private agents can be compelled to accept local-currency settlement when counterparties insist. Notably, Brazil–China trades have largely continued in hard currency; execution under the 2023 agreement appears limited so far.

China’s swap-line network has expanded sharply. By March 2023, the PBoC had 41 bilateral swap agreements totalling about $480bn, with a modest $15.6bn activated, and has broadened

offshore RMB clearing banks. The RMB’s median share in China’s cross-border settlements rose from zero in 2014 to 20 percent in 2021, with China able to settle roughly half of external trade and investment in its own currency. RMB has also been used in some third-party transactions (for instance, Indian refiners buying Russian oil), and Argentina tapped its RMB swap in 2024 to meet IMF obligations.

Plurilateral experiments are under way. The mBridge digital multi-currency platform—led by the central banks of China, Hong Kong, Thailand and the UAE with BIS support—could enable cross-border payments using CBDCs. ASEAN members agreed in May 2025 to develop a local-currency settlement framework. BRICS has pursued an interbank mechanism for localcurrency payments and launched BRICS Pay in 2018. BRICS expansion (Ethiopia, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE; Argentina declined) increases the scope for such arrangements. The direction of travel is clear: local-currency settlement is growing, contributing to a slow, bounded fragmentation of global payments.

LINES OF EXTERNAL FINANCIAL DEFENCE

International reserves: first line

Reserves are the first buffer against shocks and payment stoppages, though their low returns impose opportunity costs and optimal sizing is hard to pin down. Global reserves have risen after a dip in the late-2010s but are highly concentrated: about 97 percent are held by roughly half of countries, with some ninety emerging and low-income economies holding the residual 3 percent. Many EMs built substantial buffers in the 2000s; most LICs did not.

Pooling resources: second line

Bilateral swap lines and regional/plurilateral arrangements form a second defence layer. The Fed’s dollar swap lines span major advanced economies and Mexico, with usage peaking during the pandemic (the ECB drew the most). The Fed also maintains reciprocal foreigncurrency swaps with the BoC, BoE, BoJ, ECB and SNB. The ECB’s network of standing swaps and repos has grown since 2008; EUREP (2020) broadened access for non-euro central banks. These facilities aim to quell spillbacks and preserve monetary-policy transmission.

However, like reserves, such lines are inaccessible to many EMDEs, and the IMF’s relative heft has diminished vis-à-vis global external liabilities. EMDEs have therefore relied on costly selfinsurance. Some EMDE central banks hold RMB swap lines, but limited convertibility constrains their safety-net value; China’s template primarily facilitates bilateral trade and investment. An exception was Argentina’s 2023 use of its RMB line to bridge IMF payments.

The IMF’s central role needs bolstering

The IMF provides the widest, most general layer of defence, yet its lending capacity (relative to global liabilities) has shrunk and reliance on borrowed resources has risen. Weaknesses in the safety net for EMDEs—especially those unable to accumulate large reserves—leave them exposed to capital-flow and exchange-rate volatility, with FX-denominated credit a recurring vulnerability. Strengthening the global safety net requires augmenting IMF liquidity tools and widening coverage, alongside policies that temper capital-market volatility.

CONCLUSION

A multipolar monetary system is not yet upon us. Despite efforts—particularly by China— to broaden the set of leading currencies and expand RMB use, de-dollarisation will likely be slow and bounded absent a wholesale shift in China’s policy and regulatory regime. The euro remains largely regional, though a concerted agenda to deepen euro-safe-asset supply could raise its profile. Meanwhile, erratic US policy can accelerate portfolio diversification, even as sustained provision of dollar safe assets underpins the dollar’s role.

Local-currency settlement is spreading through bilateral and regional accords, and China now settles a large share of its external transactions in RMB. This points to gradual, partial fragmentation of payments rather than abrupt regime change. The priority is to reinforce the global financial safety net—especially for EMDEs—by empowering the IMF and supporting decentralised arrangements. As the system edges away from single polarity, minimising instability risks during and after the transition is imperative. History warns that overlapping reserve regimes can be turbulent; prudent reinforcement now can mitigate self-fulfilling crises later. i

The Unbeatable Hand: Can the House Ever Truly Lose?

In the glittering, high-stakes world of commercial gambling, the casino floor operates on a principle of mathematical inevitability. Short-term thrills and outsized jackpots may obscure the reality, but when millions compound into billions, the “house edge” proves to be one of the most resilient business models in the leisure sector. The industry’s colossal, seemingly bulletproof profits rest on cold, hard probability.

The cinematic image of a high-roller sweeping a mountain of chips off the felt and strolling out a millionaire makes for serviceable drama; it is a poor guide to the business model that powers global gaming. For an executive safeguarding shareholder capital, the only “luck” that matters is the law of large numbers.

Can a casino lose money on gaming operations?

In the very short term, yes. A single roulette wheel might deliver a streak—black twenty times in a row—forcing sizeable pay-outs to those who backed it, and a progressive slot might be hit minutes after a reset. A skilful or simply fortunate blackjack player can capitalise on a run of good cards. These episodes are variance, not trend; they create cash-flow dips that keep operators prudent and insurers relevant. The operating structure—from game design to accounting policy—is built on the assurance that the signal, a positive expected value, will reassert itself as volume rises.

THE HOUSE EDGE: AN UNWRITTEN TAX

At the core of enduring profitability lies a concept both simple and frequently misunderstood: the house edge. This is not a hidden fee; it is a mathematical advantage embedded in payouts and rules across every game on the floor. Expressed as a percentage of the wager, it represents what the casino expects to retain over the long run.

European roulette provides a clean illustration. The wheel has 37 pockets—1 to 36 plus a single zero. A straight-up number pays 35-to-1. Were the odds “fair”, the pay-out would be 36-to-1. That extra pocket is the structural margin. On a £100 bet, the long-run expected player loss is £2.70—equivalent to a 2.70 percent edge. American roulette adds a double-zero, taking the total to 38 and widening the expected loss to 5.26 percent.

The same principle runs through the casino’s product suite. Slot machines are configured to

a target return to player, commonly 90 to 98 percent; the residual 2 to 10 percent accrues to the house as the long-term take, however dramatic individual jackpots may appear. Blackjack, with optimal “basic strategy”, can shave the edge to roughly 0.5 to 1 percent, but any deviation—hesitation on hits, sub-optimal splits, or unfavourable table rules such as the dealer hitting a soft 17—nudges it back towards the house. The game also carries a structural twist in the casino’s favour: players act first and can bust before the dealer completes a hand. In craps and baccarat, the spread of wagers spans very different expectations. Some craps propositions carry double-digit edges, while conservative options are far leaner; baccarat’s Banker bet, often around 1.06 percent, still provides a steady trickle of margin at scale.

THE LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS: FROM BASIS POINTS TO BILLIONS

Turning a fractional statistical advantage into a reliable revenue stream demands volume. The law of large numbers states that as the number of trials increases, actual results converge on expected values. A single £10 spin on red may land either way, barely reflecting the edge. Now multiply the activity: dozens of roulette tables spinning fifty times an hour; thousands of players making tens of thousands of wagers across a week. At that scale, outcomes normalise. The casino’s profit settles close to the predicted proportion of the “handle”—the total amount wagered—be it 2.70 percent for European roulette or 5.26 percent for American.

This is the commercial genius of the model. The casino is not “betting against” a player so much as collecting a small, mathematically mandated commission on aggregate activity. Players circulate funds amongst themselves; the house continuously captures its predetermined share.

Every design decision seeks to maximise turnover. Faster dealers raise hands per hour; ergonomic seating and complimentary refreshments increase time on device; immersive environments

encourage longer sessions. The economics are multiplicative: increase the denominator—the total wagered—and the edge translates into outsized, predictable profit.

MANAGING THE OUTLIERS

Mathematics governs the centre of the distribution; operators must manage the tails. Two threats are notable, and both are operational rather than existential.

The first is advantage play. Card counters in blackjack, hole-carding, or subtle exploitation of wheel bias can tilt expectation temporarily towards the player. Casinos counter with layered surveillance, data analytics, and trained pit supervision. Procedural changes—multiple decks, frequent shuffles, continuous-shuffling machines, standardised dealing protocols— further reduce vulnerability. The house defends its edge not by disputing the maths but by closing loopholes.

The second is exposure to “whales”, high-rollers whose bet sizes can dwarf a day’s expected margin. A whale who wins £5 million can erase a day’s take. Operators mitigate through table limits that cap potential loss on any single round and through hedging practices, including insurance or laying off parts of large exposures with counterparties. VIP play can be highly profitable over time—its volatility simply demands disciplined risk parameters.

WHEN COULD THE HOUSE LOSE?

The gaming floor is, in effect, a perpetual engine driven by small edges and large numbers. For the house to lose money consistently on gaming would require a sustained breakdown in one of three pillars. The first would be a widespread, undetected player capability to reverse the edge—highly improbable given surveillance,

rule-sets and staff training. The second would be a structural collapse in game volume, whether through prolonged closures or a severe, persistent demand shock. Even in downturns, casinos can reprice, re-theme and reshape product to sustain spend per visit. The third would be operational laxity—poor controls, leaky procedures or comp policies that give away more value than the edge recovers. Well-run properties monitor these links relentlessly.

It bears emphasis that casinos can and do lose money at enterprise level for reasons unrelated to the core mathematics of gaming. Over-leveraged balance sheets, expensive integrated-resort developments that miss their demand forecast, regulatory shocks, or saturation in a local market can all compress margins. Yet these are capitalallocation or macro-cycle issues. The games themselves continue to yield their statistical margin so long as play continues.

PREDICTABILITY

AS AN INVESTMENT PROPOSITION

For investors, the appeal of regulated gaming is the fusion of entertainment demand with statistical predictability. The edge converts to revenues with metronomic reliability when paired with high throughput. Scalable fixed costs— surveillance, compliance, cage operations— benefit from volume, while variable costs, such as labour and comps, can be tuned to demand. Ancillary lines—hotels, food and beverage, entertainment—introduce their own economics and cyclicality, but the gaming floor remains the engine room.

That predictability does not obviate the need for governance. Data privacy and cybersecurity are integral as more activity moves to digital wallets and online platforms. Responsible-gaming frameworks protect customers and licence value; marketing practices must be disciplined.

Regulators, rightly, demand robust controls and transparent reporting. Well-capitalised operators embrace these requirements as the cost of durable cash flows.

THE

ANSWER IN THE NUMBERS

Strip away the neon and theatrics, and the casino is a machine designed to convert tiny, persistent advantages into dependable profit. The house edge guarantees a positive drift; the law of large numbers ensures that drift shows up on schedule; operational discipline manages variance and

outliers. Short-term losses occur, sometimes spectacularly, but they are absorbed by scale and process. In the absence of a failure in probability itself, the house is engineered to win.

The lights, the comps, the Champagne—they are paid for by an invisible, non-negotiable levy embedded in every spin, deal and roll. For shareholders, the gaming floor is not a place of uncontrolled risk; it is a predictable financial engine whose precision comes not from chance, but from arithmetic. i

The Man Who Broke the Bank:

An Accounting Error, Not a Miracle

Charles Wells looms large in casino folklore, yet his 1891 spree at Monte Carlo was neither a triumph of skill nor supernatural luck—it was a brief statistical aberration that ultimately reaffirmed the House’s advantage. The legend endures; the mathematics never wavered.

“Breaking the bank” sounded apocalyptic but meant something prosaic. When staff declared “Le banque est sautée!”, they referred only to a single roulette table’s working reserve—the caisse, typically about 100,000 francs—being emptied. Play paused, a cloth covered the felt, cash was fetched from the central vault, maximum limits were adjusted, and the table reopened. The rest of the casino carried on as usual.

Across three feverish days, Wells reportedly won about one million francs. He did so not by outwitting the wheel but by pressing aggressive bets into a rare, favourable run—at times staking the maximum on a single number, winning, then letting the entire sum ride. He returned

months later and, improbably, repeated the feat. Such streaks make headlines precisely because they are so unlikely. On a European wheel, the house edge is 2.70 percent: it does not prevent dramatic short-term swings, but it ensures that, over volume, results converge to the casino’s margin.

That convergence duly arrived. By 1893 Wells had lost most of his winnings; shortly thereafter he was imprisoned for frauds unrelated to gambling. The casino, meanwhile, kept minting predictable profits. Its model is built to compartmentalise volatility—table reserves, limits, surveillance and procedures—while the law of large numbers converts tiny percentage edges into dependable cash flow.

Wells’s story flatters the romance of a lone gambler toppling an institution. The ledger offers a cooler verdict. He surfed variance twice; the House’s arithmetic prevailed—as it was designed to do.

The Art of the Deal: Is Fine Art Still a Masterpiece in the Alternative Investment Portfolio?

The art market, once the preserve of billionaires and institutions, has undergone a seismic shift. While record-breaking auctions make for glamorous headlines, volatility, illiquidity and a new wave of fractional-ownership models are reshaping its role. We explore whether this ancient asset class retains its lustre as a truly “hot” alternative investment for modern portfolios.

For centuries, fine art has occupied an almost mythical place in the architecture of wealth. It is the ultimate dual asset: a generator of aesthetic utility—the economist’s “psychological dividend”—and a tangible store of value. When a Picasso or a Basquiat clears nine figures, the sale reinforces a glamorous narrative: art as a crucible of outsized returns, an inflation hedge and a status signal for the financially elite.

Those moments, however, sit atop a narrow, rarefied stratum. For allocators seeking measurable alpha, the market beneath the saleroom spotlight is more complex, far less liquid and altogether cooler than the paddlesin-the-air theatre suggests. The critical question is not whether art can create wealth—it can— but whether it remains a “hot” alternative in the sense of accessibility, competitive risk-adjusted returns and transactional ease. The answer is necessarily conditional.

THE CORE INVESTMENT CASE: MEASURING A MASTERPIECE

Quantifying art’s performance is methodologically awkward. Works are unique; trading is sporadic; price discovery is opaque. To approximate returns, researchers lean on repeat-sales indices—Mei Moses and its successors—tracking the same works over time. Over long horizons—two to five decades— these datasets often show returns that are competitive with, and in phases exceed, broad equity benchmarks, with the added attraction of low correlation to traditional assets. High-end segments, sustained by ultra-high-net-worth demand, can prove surprisingly resilient when public markets wobble.

Yet headline returns habitually understate two structural drags: illiquidity and costs. Disposing of a significant work is slow. Valuation, consignment and auction scheduling can stretch across seasons; private-treaty deals are not much swifter. Transaction costs

are punishing. Buyer’s premium and seller’s commission together can erode 25 to 40 percent of the gross proceeds. A painting acquired at £1m may need to appreciate by a third or more—before storage, insurance and conservation—simply to break even over a fiveyear hold.

Carrying costs are persistent and non-trivial. Specialist insurance, climate-controlled storage, condition reports and periodic conservation all weigh on net returns and elevate the hurdle rate. In consequence, fine art functions best as a long-duration wealth-preservation instrument: a superior store of value rather than a highvelocity growth engine.

THE GREAT MARKET DIVIDE: BLUE-CHIP

VERSUS MID-TIER

The investment dynamics diverge sharply across two markets. The blue-chip tier— canonical names such as Picasso, Monet, Warhol, Hockney and Basquiat—offers proven auction histories, impeccable provenance and finite supply. Here, capital behaves patiently. Sovereign wealth funds, family offices and institutions treat masterpieces as transportable hard currency. Returns in this segment can be spectacular and, more importantly, durable— but the entry ticket typically begins in the high seven figures.

The mid-market—roughly £10,000 to £500,000—is where most aspirational capital operates and where risk is highest. Prices are sensitive to critical fashion, academic reappraisal and curatorial heat. Style risk is acute: today’s lauded emerging talent can become tomorrow’s footnote. Market structure compounds the problem. Liquidity is patchy; repeat-sales data are thin; valuation is more art than science. Attempting to “flip” within this band is hazardous: if momentum stalls, commission burdens crystallise losses quickly. This is why many art funds underperformed and why the category retains a reputation for opacity and inaccessibility.

THE GAME CHANGERS: FRACTIONALISATION AND DIGITAL DISRUPTION

Accessibility and liquidity—long the twin obstacles—are being reconfigured by technology. Fractional-ownership platforms have done most to democratise exposure. The model is straightforward: acquire a marquee work—say, a £50m Monet—securitise it via a special-purpose vehicle and sell shares to investors at low minimums. In one move, the approach lowers the capital barrier, outsources the administrative burden of storage and insurance to the platform and, in theory, introduces a secondary market in the shares.

This is not a panacea. Investors own a security, not the canvas; economics still depend on the appreciation of the underlying work; and secondary markets remain nascent, so true liquidity is not guaranteed. Fee structures deserve scrutiny—management and performance fees can meaningfully dilute returns. Nevertheless, fractionalisation pulls retail investors out of the precarious mid-market and into exposure to blue-chip works whose risk–return profiles historically looked more bond-like than venture-style.

The parallel digital story—NFTs—has matured sharply since the 2021 frenzy. As a medium of expression, on-chain art has a future; as a broad

investment thesis for diversified portfolios, the uncollateralised, avatar-driven boom has largely given way to more structured, assetbacked models. The current centre of gravity lies less in speculative flipping and more in infrastructure: provenance registries, tokenised funds and digital rails that improve settlement and transparency for the traditional market.

PRICING THE REALITY: RETURNS AFTER FRICTION

Set against equities or private credit, art’s appeal rests on diversification and scarcity rather than on superior annualised returns net of frictions. The practical calculus for an allocator is clear. First, assume a longer hold— seven to ten years—to amortise transaction costs. Second, budget for ongoing care. Third, favour provenance and quality over novelty; liquidity concentrates around masterpieces, not marginal names. Fourth, consider the opportunity cost: capital tied up in a painting is not compounding elsewhere.

Tax can sharpen or blunt outcomes. In some jurisdictions, long-term capital-gains treatment and favourable estate planning may enhance after-tax returns; in others, import duties, VAT and cultural-property rules introduce friction. Cross-border structuring, increasingly via artfriendly freeports and specialist lenders, can optimise financing—collateralised art loans

allow owners to release liquidity without a sale—but leverage adds complexity and risk.

PORTFOLIO DESIGN: WHO SHOULD OWN WHAT—AND HOW?

For ultra-high-net-worth investors, blue-chip art remains a strategic anchor: a trophy asset with defensive properties, a store of value that travels across borders and regimes, and a diversifier that correlates weakly with public markets. The objective here is not yield maximisation but capital preservation with optionality.

For family offices and sophisticated retail investors, direct ownership in the midmarket is a high-beta proposition demanding connoisseurship, network and patience. Where that infrastructure is absent, fractional vehicles can provide a cleaner, institutionally recognisable exposure—albeit one mediated by platform risk and fees. A pragmatic blueprint for a modern portfolio would treat art as a small, long-duration sleeve—focused on the highest-quality names and structures—rather than a tactical trade.

Corporate and institutional balance sheets are also evolving. Some insurers, banks and luxury groups engage with art as collateral or as part of brand ecosystems; university endowments remain cautious, reflecting governance, valuation and liquidity constraints. For most institutions, art exposure—where present—is likely to sit

within real assets or opportunistic buckets, sized modestly and managed with specialist partners.

THE VERDICT: HOT FOR SOME, WARM FOR MOST If “hot” connotes high-velocity trading, low friction and near-term certainty, fine art is not hot. It is slow money: illiquid, operationally intensive and sensitive to selection risk. If, instead, “hot” means newly accessible, increasingly professionalised and strategically valid within diversified portfolios, then the case is stronger— particularly through fractional exposure to blue-chip works and through the steady institutionalisation of market infrastructure.

What endures is the logic of quality and provenance. Masterpieces compound trust; mid-tier speculation compounds cost. For those with time horizons measured in decades, the art market can anchor wealth and absorb shocks that unsettle financial assets. For those seeking quarterly performance, it will disappoint.

The art of the deal, in the end, is patience. Buy the best you can verify, structure ownership intelligently, budget for friction and treat the psychological dividend as a bonus, not a substitute for disciplined underwriting. Fine art remains a masterpiece of portfolio construction— provided investors accept that its value accrues like patina, not like momentum. i

Mr Warmth, The Merchant of Venom: The Enduring Art of the Don Rickles Insult

He insulted everyone and was adored by all. Don Rickles, undisputed king of insult comedy, didn’t trade in set-ups and punchlines so much as he weaponised an audience’s anxieties— only to defuse them with a wink and a grin—proving that the sharpest barbs can be rooted in genuine affection.

In the glittering, high-stakes world of mid20th-century American entertainment— where decorum and star power were currency—one man dared to stand on stage, single out a paying customer and bark: “Hey, you, with the face! What did you do, fall off the ugly tree and hit every branch on the way down?”

That man was Donald Jay Rickles. Dubbed the “King of Insult Comedy”, he also wore, with a conspiratorial smile, the twin sobriquets “The Merchant of Venom” and, facetiously, “Mr Warmth”. His act was a paradox: confrontational and improvised, yet greeted with uproarious, unoffended laughter. For more than six decades he danced outside comedy’s usual guardrails, creating a high-wire theatrical experience that few have dared—and none have quite managed—to replicate.

Rickles’ magic never resided in a notebook of gags. It lived in the moment. He stepped on stage to a slyly mocking entrance—the bullfighting march, “La Virgen de la Macarena”—as if to signal the metaphorical goring to come. He rarely wrote jokes; he read rooms. An ill-advised suit, a prominent nose, a pair of conspicuous glasses or a couple sharing a quiet dinner instantly became raw material. A comedian of pure observation, he relied on the human panorama before him and the electricity of risk.

The insults were fearless, rapid and, by contemporary standards, perilous. In an era when ethnic and religious stereotypes were common comedic fodder, Rickles did not so much flirt with the line as sprint over it. He would lock onto someone in the front row, riff on heritage, then pivot to lampoon an Irish American for drink, a German for severity, or—most frequently— himself, the anxious Jewish outsider with oversized features. The velocity mattered. No one group was singled out for long; nobody was spared, including the man at the microphone.

Crucially, the technique worked because he aimed everywhere at once—punching up, down

and sideways until the geometry of offence collapsed. By targeting everyone, he neutralised the sense of being targeted. It was “equalopportunity insulting” as social leveller. He mocked our differences and, in the same breath, affirmed our common ridiculousness. When a powerful figure—Frank Sinatra, Ronald Reagan, Johnny Carson—sat in the room, Rickles became most venomous, reducing icons to “hockey pucks”, hapless foils like any other. The lèsemajesté offered audiences a communal release: hierarchies punctured, tension dissolved.

The Sinatra legend remains definitive. Early in a Miami nightclub run, Rickles clocked “Ol’ Blue Eyes” entering. Most comics would have genuflected. Rickles strolled to his table and fired: “Make yourself at home, Frank. Hit somebody!” Instead of dispatching minders, Sinatra howled—and a lifelong friendship began. The sanction from the era’s most untouchable star did more than protect Rickles; it anointed the act. If Sinatra could take it, anyone could— and perhaps should. Being insulted by Rickles became a status marker, proof you belonged in the in-crowd and were fair game like the rest.

Here the “Mr Warmth” nickname—gifted by Johnny Carson—earns its irony. The venom was the material; the warmth was the delivery. Rickles’ aggression was disarmed by his jittery, rapid-fire cadence, the theatrical eye-rolls, the boyish grin that broke through mock disgust. The target was always invited into the joke. He telegraphed, without saying it, “It’s all in fun.” He often stated it outright: “If I were to insult people and mean it, that wouldn’t be funny.” The comedy lay in the flamboyance of meanness, the conscious performance of bad taste, never its endorsement.

Would Rickles “get away with it” today? Probably not in the same form. Contemporary audiences interrogate intent and context with far greater vigilance; the casual use of stereotypes rightly invites scrutiny. Yet judging Rickles solely by current sensibilities misses the texture of his stage and time: the post-war nightclub and Las

Vegas showroom, a boisterous cabaret in which boundaries were tested nightly and a melting-pot America wrestled with itself in public. By dragging every stereotype into the open and emptying it of malice through relentless mockery—including of himself—he fashioned a peculiar sort of tolerance. He turned the room into a compact: we are all ridiculous; therefore, none of us is excluded.

The influence radiates widely. Rickles helped codify the celebrity roast—immortalised on the Dean Martin specials—where the sting is wrapped in camaraderie and the honour lies in being skewered. His improvisational audacity

echoes in comics who privilege crowd work and the alchemy of the moment over tightly scripted sets. He was, at core, an actor manqué who found his true canvas in live combat: a one-nightonly spectacle of verbal warfare where the only casualty was pretension.

None of this absolves the material that, in the cold light of the present, reads as jarring or offensive. Terms and tropes once treated as mainstream are now understood as slurs, and audiences are right to recoil. But even here, context matters: Rickles’ satire was centrifugal, not selective. He mocked the stereotypes themselves, then ricocheted to

lampoon his own identity, the powerful in the room and the conventions of showbusiness. The joke, finally, was on the mechanism of prejudice—and on the need we all harbour to feel momentarily superior.

When Rickles died in 2017, an era bowed out with him. He belonged to a live-wire tradition of American entertainment in which the boundaries of taste were negotiated in the heat of a showroom, not on a timeline. He was the court jester who mocked the king and was rewarded with laughter; the “Merchant of Venom” whose greatest trick was to make venom taste like champagne. In

a cultural moment that often prizes safety over surprise, his legacy is a reminder of a different compact between comic and crowd: a shared appetite for risk, redeemed by warmth.

Don Rickles taught an enduring lesson that outlives the milieu that formed him: the biggest laugh is the one you get at your own expense; the hardest words can come from the softest heart; and, deployed with timing, charm and evident goodwill, even an insult can become an invitation—to drop our guard, to join the joke and to recognise, if only for a night, how gloriously absurd we all are. i

From Art School to the Aisle: The Meticulous, Colourful World of Kosas >

Apainter’s eye, a scientist’s brain and an artist’s heart. Sheena Zadeh—now Sheena Zadeh-Daly—the visionary behind clean-beauty powerhouse Kosas, did not set out to build a billionpound brand. She set out to make make-up that felt good, looked great and was genuinely good for skin. In a marketplace saturated with “fast beauty”, her deliberate, artful approach has struck a chord, proving that quality, comfort and clean ingredients can be the most compelling palette of all.

In the frenetic world of modern beauty—where trends rise and fall faster than a social feed can refresh—some brands feel like a breath of fresh air. Then there is Kosas. More than another “clean” label, it is a quiet revolution: a philosophy of beauty meticulously crafted by its founder. This is not merely about what sits on the skin; it is about how a product makes you feel. It is about revealing, not concealing. And it began with a near-academic fascination with colour and chemistry.

Kosas is not the familiar tale of a beauty influencer or a Silicon Valley disruptor. Its roots are in fine art and biology, a meeting of scientific rigour and painterly expression. From childhood, Zadeh-Daly was immersed in cosmetics—her mother worked a beauty counter—and she quickly became the unofficial adviser for friends and family. Curiosity, not careerism, drove her early experiments: she wanted to understand why products performed, not simply how to wear them.

Before launching the brand, she pursued a dual education that would become Kosas’s DNA: biology and fine arts. In a portrait class, she was captivated by the discipline of mixing pigments to create human skin tones—the undertones, the micro-shifts, the way a trace of warmth or shadow could make a face look vibrant and alive. The epiphany followed: what if make-up were formulated with the same intention, using colours that sit within the skin’s spectrum rather than on top of it—tones that make skin look, and feel, healthier?

Kosas’s first products—a quartet of lipsticks— arrived in 2015. The Weightless Lip Color collection was not a set of shouty statement shades; it was a study in flattering neutrals: vibrant, alive, complex, and effortlessly wearable. Formula mattered as much as colour. In the search for comfort and nourishment,

Zadeh-Daly gravitated—almost by accident— towards “clean” formulations. It was not a positioning exercise; it was functional. The ingredients that best delivered comfort and performance were, by nature, clean. That pragmatic, feel-first approach has anchored the brand ever since.

What followed was a steady ascent from kitchentable enterprise to international player, propelled by a series of viral hero products that reframed what “clean” and “skincare-infused” make-up can achieve. The Revealer Concealer crystallises the Kosas ethos: formulated with ingredients such as caffeine and arnica, it is designed not merely to conceal but to brighten and soothe. “Makeup for skincare freaks” is more than a slogan; it signals to a new cohort of highly literate consumers who want multitasking formulas, tangible benefits and a holistic approach to selfcare.

In an industry defined by fads and quick fixes, Kosas stands out for its deliberate pace. ZadehDaly is not interested in filling shelves for the sake of novelty. Inspiration begins with need— hers, or that of the Kosas community. “Many times, the product ideas are something that’s really missing in my life or something that I need to add to my routine,” she has noted. That personal, almost intimate, development process yields products that feel considered and refined. Formulations undergo rigorous clinical and safety testing; the brand goes beyond standard banned lists to exclude ingredients that simply do not feel good on skin or interact well with it. The result is trust—a currency more durable than hype.

Kosas’s message is as integral as its methods. The brand champions “comfy glam”, a phrase that neatly captures its mission: beauty that is elevated yet effortless, expressive yet wearable. It is about enhancing natural features rather than masking them—“good make-up, not no makeup”. The distinction is subtle and powerful, resonating with consumers weary of the often unrealistic “no-make-up make-up” ideal. Kosas encourages confidence and comfort in one’s own skin, supported by high-performance, skinloving products.

That ethos extends to the brand’s visual language. Where many clean-beauty labels lean clinical, Kosas embraces an artistic vibrancy— bold colour fields, playful gradients, an invitation to enjoy the process as much as the result. The

creative direction makes the brand approachable and joyful, while the campaigns lean into authenticity: real reviews, creator-led tutorials, user-generated content. The effect is dialogue rather than broadcast, community rather than megaphone.

The founder’s journey has also been a study in self-awareness. Zadeh-Daly has spoken candidly about the challenge of balancing the roles of visionary and operator, and her decision to appoint a CEO so she could focus on product, brand and creative direction. That organisational maturity—putting the right people in the right seats—has underpinned sustained growth without compromising the brand’s core.

Kosas’s international expansion underscores its momentum. Its debut in the UK—anchored by best-sellers and supported by retail partners attuned to performance-driven “clean” beauty— signals ambitions beyond its home market. The playbook is consistent: formulas that prioritise comfort and efficacy; colours grounded in real skin; transparency in testing and standards; and a brand world that celebrates artistry without intimidation.

The commercial logic is equally sound. Kosas sits at the intersection of two durable trends: the convergence of skincare and make-up, and the consumer’s demand for ingredient clarity and performance proof. Against a

backdrop of tightening regulation and rising scepticism, brands that can document safety and benefits—while delivering an enjoyable sensorial experience—are best placed to endure. Kosas’s pragmatic approach to “clean”—driven by outcome rather than orthodoxy—positions it on the credible side of that divide.

There is, finally, a lesson in restraint. In a category that rewards volume and novelty, Kosas privileges editing and refinement. Fewer, better products; colours that harmonise with skin; textures that disappear into the face rather than sit upon it. The painter’s eye is evident in the palette; the scientist’s brain in the formula; the artist’s heart in the invitation to feel like oneself.

As the brand scales, the challenge will be to maintain that equilibrium—expanding distribution without diluting identity; innovating without chasing ephemera; holding fast to a development philosophy that begins with need and ends with comfort, confidence and care. Thus far, the execution has been assured.

Kosas does not merely sell products; it sells a feeling—of ease, of self-expression, of being at home in one’s own skin. In a beauty landscape crowded with noise, that quiet, meticulous confidence is its competitive edge. And in today’s market, that may be the most beautiful proposition of all. i

From the Ashes: How “Famous Failures” Became Our Greatest Successes

Einstein didn’t speak fluently until he was four. The Beatles were turned down by Decca Records. J.K. Rowling wrote in cafés while living on state benefits. Before they soared, they stumbled. Their stories are not paeans to failure for its own sake; they are studies in quiet strength—talent misread as weakness, potential hiding in plain sight until the world learned how to recognise it.

What makes a person a “failure”? Is it a dismal school report, a rejection letter, or the absence of immediate success? We lionise the overnight sensation and overlook the years of obscurity that precede the headline. When the trajectory to the top appears as a straight line, our own detours feel damning. Yet history, read without its glossy hindsight, tells a different story: innovators, artists and leaders frequently endure long periods in which their gifts are misunderstood, their methods ridiculed, or their timing misaligned with the market.

Consider Albert Einstein, whose name now functions as a synonym for genius. As a child he was slow to speak and indifferent to rote instruction. One teacher reportedly told his father the boy would “never amount to anything.” The very qualities that frustrated his teachers—his refusal to memorise, his insistence on thinking from first principles—were the seeds of the revolutionary mind that later gave us special and general relativity. Einstein’s supposed “failure” was a mismatch between an industrial-age classroom and a mind attuned to conceptual elegance. The lesson is both humbling and liberating: potential is not always legible to the systems tasked with measuring it.

Popular music offers a parallel parable. In 1962 The Beatles auditioned for Decca Records and were rejected with the immortal misjudgement that “guitar groups are on the way out.” To four young men from Liverpool, the decision cut deep. But the refusal did not negate their sound; it merely revealed an industry gate misaligned with audience appetite. Within months they found champions elsewhere and detonated the cultural consensus from the inside. The Decca episode shows how “no” can be a verdict on fashion, risk tolerance or institutional myopia, rather than on the underlying merit of the work.

Sometimes the setback is not merely professional but existential. Before she became the world’s best-known novelist, J.K. Rowling was a single mother navigating poverty and depression. She

wrote because the story would not leave her alone. Publishers were unmoved; some advised that boys wouldn’t read about a boy wizard written by a woman. The eventual yes changed literary history, but the years of no gave her prose its grain—clarity won in the trenches, compassion forged in hardship. What looked like failure from the outside was, on the inside, a long apprenticeship in resilience and craft.

Thomas Edison, for his part, reframed failure with almost athletic discipline. The legend— thousands of attempts at a viable filament—is less a tally than a posture: each non-working prototype was one more data point. “I have not failed,” he quipped. “I’ve just found 10,000 ways that won’t work.” His genius was less in being right quickly than in being indefatigable— organising trial, error and iteration into a process that made discovery statistically inevitable. Seen this way, failure is not a verdict but a unit of progress.

The pattern recurs across fields. Vincent van Gogh sold one painting in his lifetime. His unseen labour is now the fulcrum of modern art. Oprah Winfrey was told she was too “emotional” for news; that very quality—deep human curiosity— became the engine of a media empire. James Dyson built more than five thousand prototypes before the bagless vacuum that made his name. The prelude to breakthrough is often a litany of misfires, the kind that tidy biographies compress but real lives must endure.

Why does this happen so frequently? First, systems are designed to detect standard excellence, not outliers. Schools reward speed, recall and compliance; markets reward what sold last quarter. An Einstein in a rote classroom or a Beatles demo in the hands of a risk-averse A&R executive will read as noise in a system tuned to other frequencies. Second, timing matters. There is nothing more commercially invisible than a product six months early—or six months late. The difference between failure and prescience is often a calendar. Third, the psychological alchemy of setbacks—grit, focus, the pruning of ego—can turn raw talent into durable achievement. Rejection is intolerable in the moment and invaluable in retrospect; it clarifies motives, forces iteration, and inoculates against complacency.

There is also the matter of narrative. We tend to ascribe success to character and failure to circumstance, especially in our own lives.

The better lens is probabilistic. Any ambitious endeavour sits atop a distribution of outcomes; most attempts will not land. That is not a statement about your worth but about the difficulty of making something new. The people we celebrate are not those who avoided the lefthand tail entirely; they are those who stayed in the game long enough, and learned fast enough, to pull the distribution to the right.

Importantly, not all persistence is prudent. Endurance untethered from feedback curdles into delusion. What separates productive perseverance from stubbornness is the willingness to update one’s model of the world. Einstein did not insist that the ether must exist; he dispensed with it. The Beatles did not keep playing the same set to the same crowd; they evolved their sound and studio craft. Rowling revised, cut and reworked; Edison changed

materials, methods and metrics. The throughline is adaptation under pressure—a capacity to salvage information from disappointment and redeploy it.

What, then, should we do with our own reversals? Start by interrogating the source of the “no”. Was it a comment on timing, packaging or distribution rather than essence? If so, the remedy may be iteration rather than abandonment. Ask what the setback is teaching you to build—competence, networks, stamina— that you could not buy off the shelf. Reframe the milestone: perhaps the goal is not to be accepted this time, but to learn enough from the rejection to make the next version undeniable. In creative work, that may mean finding a smaller audience first; in business, refining a minimum viable product; in scholarship, submitting to a different journal while deepening the argument.

The point is not to romanticise failure but to metabolise it.

We should also widen our definition of success. The Einstein we remember is the patent clerk who redefined time and space, not the boy who spoke late. The Beatles we hear are the boundarybreakers of Sgt. Pepper, not the auditionees turned away in a beige office. Rowling is the architect of a literary cosmos, not the name on a benefits form. Between those pairs stands a bridge made of time, work and criticism survived. Their stories teach that success is less a destination than a compounding process: small, faithful deposits of effort and learning that accumulate until the account looks, from the outside, like a windfall.

For those living through the quiet, unglamorous middle—unpublished manuscripts, unfinanced

demos, unfunded proposals—the moral is mercifully simple. You are not behind; you are in the middle of the only story there is. Your gifts may be illegible to current gatekeepers. Your timing may be off. Your first, second or third iterations may fail. None of that is dispositive. What matters is whether you can extract the lesson, adjust your method, keep faith with the work and remain open to the world’s feedback.

So the next time a teacher, a manager or a market tells you “no,” resist the easy internal translation—“You are not enough.” Translate it instead as information: “Not this version, not this moment, not for this audience.” Then return to the bench, the studio, the page. The biographies we admire are strewn with refusals that later read like foreshadowing. The truth is disarmingly ordinary: they weren’t failing; they were training. And so, most likely, are you. i

The Aftermarket Apex: Debt, Dealmaking, and Chapter 11

First Brands Group—an automotive aftermarket consolidator built on an aggressive buy-and-build strategy— assembled a portfolio of icons from FRAM to Raybestos and scaled towards $4bn in revenue. Beneath the surface, leverage mounted. Its voluntary Chapter 11 in the United States is less a collapse than a forced deleveraging—an inflection point that tests whether financial engineering can be replaced by operational excellence, and what that means for a globally critical, Europe-resilient aftermarket.

THE SHOCKWAVE: WHEN SCALE MEETS A SOLVENCY WALL

For years, First Brands Group (FBG) was held up as textbook consolidation: a modern conglomerate knitting together maintenancecritical marques—TRICO wiper systems, FRAM filtration, Raybestos braking—to become a one-stop supplier to retailers and distributors worldwide. The thesis was clear: leverage scale, extract cross-brand synergies and serve the resilient six-years-and-older vehicle parc, largely insulated from new-car cycles and the pace of electrification.

That narrative pivoted in late September 2025. Despite revenue approaching $4bn and EBITDA margins near 25 percent, the Crowne Group-owned company commenced voluntary Chapter 11 proceedings in US Bankruptcy Court. The filing’s immediate purpose, as the Chief Restructuring Officer, Chuck Moore, set out, was to stabilise operations and secure a long-term future—anchored by $1.1bn in debtor-in-possession (DIP) financing from an ad hoc group of first-lien lenders. The liquidity lifeline supports payroll, post-petition suppliers and customer fulfilment while a plan of reorganisation is negotiated.

This is not operational failure so much as the endgame of a capital structure built on debtfuelled M&A. A looming maturity wall—around $4.5bn of first-lien loans due March 2027—left little room to refinance in a higher-rate, tightercredit world. S&P Global had flagged negative free cash flow and heightened refinancing risk; Chapter 11 is the mechanism to reset leverage without dismantling the commercial core. The challenge now: re-architect the balance sheet while preserving brand equity and supply continuity across a fragmented, acquired portfolio.

The Anatomy of an Empire: Scale by Acquisition

The modern FBG was catalysed in 2014 when Patrick James’s Crowne Group acquired TRICO, the century-old wiper specialist. That deal

became the blueprint: identify maintenance essentials, buy leaders, widen the basket.

Filtration was pillar one. FRAM provided a global anchor in oil, air and fuel filters; Luberfiner extended reach into heavy-duty and fleet segments. Braking formed pillar two. The purchase of Brake Parts Inc. brought Raybestos; Centric Parts added a rich range including performance brand StopTech. CARDONE Industries materially broadened the offer into remanufactured and new components. Further acquisitions—Airtex and Carter (fuel and water pumps), Autolite (spark plugs) and, more recently, Horizon Global (towing and trailer equipment)—created category depth and channel leverage.

The logic was sound. The aftermarket is less cyclical than OE production; ageing fleets lift demand for safety-critical, recurring parts. Owning category leaders across filtration, wipers and brakes positioned FBG as a preferred partner to mass retailers (Walmart), specialist chains (O’Reilly) and distributors globally. What strained the model was not the industrial thesis but the financing behind it: each sizeable acquisition assumed synergies and cash generation would outpace interest and amortisation—a wager that tightened as rates rose and integration costs persisted.

THE DEBT DILEMMA: ARCHITECTURE UNDER STRAIN

By 2023, FBG was an economic heavyweight— nearly $4bn of revenue, roughly 40 percent above the prior year, and more than double its 2020 scale, with margins hovering near 25 percent. But debt-to-EBITDA remained elevated. As borrowing costs climbed, leverage that once looked serviceable turned constraining; the $4.5bn 2027 maturity concentrated risk.

Integration friction compounded the financial squeeze. Years of roll-ups produced disparate ERP systems, product data and image libraries across dozens of entities. In a market where digital accuracy drives catalogue placement and e-commerce conversion, fragmentation slowed speed-to-market and added cost. Investment in a centralised digital asset management platform improved data governance and imagery, but remediation consumed capital and management attention.

Chapter 11 is designed precisely for this bind. It allows trading to continue while a plan of reorganisation extinguishes or reshapes liabilities and resets covenants. The $1.1bn DIP provides working-capital runway; vendor assurance orders and critical-vendor programmes can preserve

supply. The objective is straightforward: exit with a sustainable capital stack that converts scale into cash flow rather than interest expense.

THE EUROPEAN PARADOX: GLOBAL CONTINUITY, LOCAL CONFIDENCE

For European stakeholders—from UK distributors of TRICO to logistics partners moving FRAM across Germany and France— the US filing triggered predictable concern over supply stability. The legal perimeter matters: the Chapter 11 cases cover US entities and certain non-operating SPVs only; operating businesses across Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Asia and Australasia continue in the ordinary course.

That ring-fence is intentional. Europe is both strategically important and structurally resilient. The region’s parc is older on average, and the independent aftermarket’s multi-brand repair culture values reliable, catalogue-accurate consumables. TRICO’s UK heritage and FRAM’s continental footprint are entrenched; interrupting core maintenance flows would destroy value. European leadership now has a reputational brief as much as an operational one: communicate clearly, meet OTIF (on-time, in-full) commitments and insulate distributors and garages from US courtroom drama.

Localisation remains a competitive edge. ECE regulations, language-specific packaging and country-level range nuances require tailored supply chains. Maintaining that discipline during

restructuring will preserve share and pricing power in Europe and other non-US markets.

BEYOND THE BALANCE SHEET: FROM BUY-AND-BUILD TO OPTIMISE-AND-GROW

The path forward requires a pivot from acquisitive scale to operational excellence. The portfolio is skewed—by design—towards maintenance and repair, estimated at roughly 85 percent of revenue, serving vehicles typically six years old or older. That mix is defensible against EV disruption in the medium term: while EVs consume fewer legacy parts (no oil filters; reduced brake wear due to regeneration), the global ICE parc remains vast and replacement cycles endure, particularly in emerging markets.

Post-reorganisation priorities should be unambiguous:

• Finish the integration. Standardise core systems, consolidate cataloguing and harmonise data taxonomy across brands to accelerate newto-range introductions and reduce errors and returns.

• Lean the network. Rationalise overlapping manufacturing and distribution footprints; centralise procurement for common components; remove duplicated back-office functions to push EBITDA above the current 25 percent benchmark.

• Defend channel relationships. Use the balancesheet reset to sharpen service levels, protect fill rates and co-invest in digital shelf visibility with key retail and WD partners.

• Disciplined capital allocation. Capex towards automation and inventory visibility should outrank trophy acquisitions; any future M&A must be self-funding, integration-ready and tethered to measurable synergy timelines.

• Pricing and mix. Apply granular pricing analytics to protect margin in inflationary inputs; tilt the range towards higher-value kits and premium sub-brands where appropriate.

Governance will matter. A slimmed-down board with deep aftermarket, supply-chain and restructuring expertise can help ensure deleveraging translates into durable free cash flow, not a temporary relief rally. Incentives anchored in cash conversion, OTIF and customer NPS—not just EBITDA—will align management with value creation beyond the courtroom.

RISKS, OPPORTUNITIES AND LIKELY SCENARIOS

Three scenarios dominate creditor and customer conversations. (1) Standalone emergence via equitisation: a debt-for-equity swap with firstlien lenders, reduced cash interest, modest asset sales and targeted cost-out—most consistent with brand continuity and minimal commercial disruption. (2) Partial portfolio carve-outs: divestiture of non-core or capital-intensive units (for example, towing hardware) to accelerate deleveraging; execution risk lies in separation costs and loss of channel breadth. (3) Sale to a strategic or sponsor-led consortium: feasible post-clean-up; value realisation depends on stabilised earnings and clean carveable assets.

Key risks remain. Vendor squeeze during restructuring can tighten credit terms; mitigating actions include critical-vendor motions and transparent communications. Customer switching costs, while real in safetycritical categories, are not insurmountable— private label and agile rivals will probe for share if service falters. Labour and know-how retention across remanufacturing and engineering hubs is essential; a clear incentive framework and visible investment will steady teams. On ESG, both mining-derived inputs and energyintensive manufacturing invite scrutiny; credible emissions baselines and reduction plans will increasingly influence tenders, particularly in Europe.

There are offsets. EU “Right to Repair” initiatives, expanding telematics access and the ageing parc support consumption of high-quality maintenance parts. E-commerce marketplaces reward catalogue accuracy and fill-rate reliability—areas where a fully integrated FBG can differentiate. Data discipline, not just brand breadth, will become the moat.

Bottom line: First Brands Group reached the aftermarket apex on the back of dealmaking. Its next chapter depends on proving that a deleveraged, integrated platform can turn scale into service, service into share, and share into cash. The ascent created breadth; the restructuring must create depth. i

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> A Restaurateur’s Tale: How Drew Nieporent Built a Culinary Empire with Nobu

From a pioneering TriBeCa bistro to a global luxury marque, Drew Nieporent’s story is one of vision, tenacity and a partnership with a Hollywood legend. As co-founder of Nobu, he helped redefine fine dining and built an empire on more than food alone.

EARLY INFLUENCES AND FORMATIVE LESSONS

In the annals of New York dining, few names resonate like Drew Nieporent. Not a television chef nor a molecular showman, he is that rarer figure: the master restaurateur whose instincts span operations, hospitality and brand. Raised in Manhattan, Nieporent was immersed in restaurants from an early age. His father’s role at the State Liquor Authority exposed him to the city’s dining rooms; summer stints at McDonald’s and on cruise ships taught the mechanics of service, systems and show.

After graduating from Cornell’s School of Hotel Administration, he trained in high-volume icons such as Maxwell’s Plum and Tavern on the Green. There he learnt the choreography of the dining room, the importance of pace and the value of a guest’s first impression—disciplines that would underpin his later ventures.

MONTRACHET AND THE MAKING OF TriBeCa

The decisive step came in 1985 with the opening of Montrachet in then-sleepy TriBeCa. The proposition was clear: a polished, modern French bistro offering serious cooking at accessible prices, supported by a thoughtful Burgundy-led cellar. Critical acclaim followed—three stars from The New York Times—and so did a clientele of downtown creatives, financiers and visiting celebrities. Montrachet did more than succeed; it helped place TriBeCa on the culinary map and established Nieporent as a restaurateur of substance.

Among the regulars was Robert De Niro, a neighbourhood resident who admired Montrachet’s balance of rigour and warmth. Their rapport seeded a broader collaboration. In 1990, with De Niro and a constellation of investors, Nieporent opened Tribeca Grill—part brasserie, part clubhouse—

cementing the area’s status as a dining destination and proving his ability to translate neighbourhood energy into a durable institution.

THE NOBU TRIUMVIRATE

De Niro had long championed chef Nobu Matsuhisa, whose Japanese-Peruvian cooking in Los Angeles married precision with heat and citrus. Persuading the chef to expand east had proved difficult after earlier setbacks, but with Nieporent’s operational assurance, the stars aligned. In 1994 the trio—Matsuhisa, De Niro and Nieporent—opened Nobu in New York.

The effect was immediate. Where Japanese dining in America had often traded on restraint, Nobu delivered tempo and theatre without sacrificing craft. Signature dishes—Black Cod with Miso, Yellowtail with Jalapeño—felt both novel and inevitable. The room pulsed, the service flowed and the brand voice was unmistakable: modern luxury with global inflection. Nobu was not merely a table to book; it was a cultural reference point for a less stuffy, more kinetic idea of fine dining.

OPERATING DISCIPLINE MEETS CREATIVE BRIO

If Matsuhisa supplied the culinary grammar and De Niro the cultural magnetism, Nieporent built the machine. Through Myriad Restaurant Group he provided the frameworks—training, procurement, wine, design standards and financial controls—that allow consistency at scale. The model balanced central discipline with local nuance: each opening carried the Nobu signature while absorbing the cadence of London, Malibu or Dubai.

Key to the expansion was Nieporent’s insistence on the intangibles: the arc of a guest’s experience; lighting that flatters food and faces; a wine list that respects both precision and pleasure; a greeting delivered at precisely the right moment. These details are hard to codify yet decisive in separating a hit from a habit.

FROM RESTAURANTS TO A LUXURY ECOSYSTEM

Success bred a broader platform. Nobu evolved from restaurants into a luxury lifestyle brand— hotels, residences and events—without diluting

the core proposition. The extension worked because the DNA travelled: minimalist craft, urbane energy, exacting service. Today, with more than 50 restaurants and an expanding hospitality footprint, Nobu is a global emblem of contemporary dining culture.

ENDURING LESSONS IN RESTAURANT STRATEGY

Nieporent’s career offers a coherent playbook for resilient growth in an unforgiving sector. Place-making sits at the heart of his approach: Montrachet and Tribeca Grill show how a compelling concept can animate a neighbourhood while drawing strength from it. Equally important is the alchemy of partnership. Aligning a chef’s creative vision with cultural capital and operational certainty multiplies the odds of durable success; the Nobu collaboration made that synergy visible to the world.

Brand integrity is safeguarded through consistency. Standards that can be trained, audited and repeated across borders protect the guest promise without flattening local character. Above all, experience is the product. Cuisine, design, soundtrack and service operate as a single organism; neglect one and the whole proposition drifts. Nieporent’s insistence on hospitality as a total work of art—timing, warmth, rhythm—turns restaurants into institutions rather than seasonal favourites.

A LEGACY BEYOND FASHION

Restaurants are notorious for churn; few become institutions and fewer still become platforms. Nieporent’s achievement lies in converting hospitality’s ephemera—mood, welcome, pace— into durable equity. He spotted potential where others saw risk, from a quiet TriBeCa block to a fusion idiom that would define an era. In doing so, he helped shift fine dining from hushed reverence to confident, cosmopolitan ease.

Drew Nieporent may not have sought the spotlight, but the rooms he built—and the partnership he forged with Nobu Matsuhisa and Robert De Niro— changed what ambitious restaurants could be. In a business of fleeting trends, that is the rarest measure of success: relevance that endures. i

The High Price of Stardom: Who Gave Hollywood the Best Return on Investment? >

The box office tells a story of success, but it does not tell the whole story. While Hollywood has always chased stars who can pack cinemas, the question that preoccupies studio chiefs and financiers is simpler—and more ruthless: who delivers the best return on investment (ROI)? From the golden age of rigid studio contracts to today’s billionpound franchises and back-end mega-deals, a century of A-list careers reveals which actors quietly minted fortunes for their employers—and who cost them a small one.

ROI, NOT RED CARPETS

In the high-stakes economy of film, an actor’s value is not measured only by charisma, awards or social-media reach. For those writing cheques, the decisive metric is pay-in versus pay-out. The architecture of stardom has changed profoundly over the past hundred years—shifting from a vertically integrated factory model to a marketplace dominated by intellectual property (IP), global release windows and multi-film universes. That shift recast the very notion of a “bankable star”, often elevating players who optimise cost-to-gross ratios rather than simply headline opening weekends.

THE GOLDEN AGE: CONTRACTUAL CHAMPIONS

During Hollywood’s studio era, the majors—MGM, Paramount, Warner Bros.—held acting talent on long-term, exclusive deals. Studios decided the roles, controlled publicity and set salaries. Stars were famous, but they were not yet independent brands; they were line items. For studios, this structure produced remarkably predictable returns.

James Stewart and Cary Grant exemplified the model: versatile, reliable draws across romance, comedy and war drama. Their pay was high by the standards of the time but fixed and devoid of profit participation. Put them in a well-mounted picture, spend on prints and advertising, and the film typically cleared a tidy margin. Risk was contained; reward, consistent.

Shirley Temple may be the era’s purest ROI phenomenon. As a child star in the 1930s, she was the world’s top box-office attraction and helped stabilise 20th Century Fox during the Depression. Her compensation, modest by modern standards, contrasted with extraordinary global appeal and rapid production cadence. Pound for pound, she remains one of the most profitable performers in cinema history—proof that disciplined cost structures can be more valuable than headline grosses alone.

The decline of the studio system in the 1950s, accelerating through the 1970s, shifted power towards talent. By the 1980s and 1990s, marquee names could command large upfront fees plus “back-end” participation—percentages of gross or net, bonuses at performance milestones and lucrative sequel escalators. For studios, ROI became more volatile: a hit could still be a hit, but a star’s compensation might compress the margin.

Tom Cruise is the archetype. One of the few modern actors who can materially alter global attendance, he has often traded reduced upfront fees for outsized back-end. Top Gun: Maverick epitomised the calculus: a colossal worldwide gross, a reported windfall for the star and, crucially, meaningful overall profitability for Paramount—because the film’s audience expansion more than covered the participation.

But the mega-deal cuts both ways. Latestage entries in mega-franchises can yield diminishing returns when star salaries and profit shares balloon. Johnny Depp’s later Pirates of the Caribbean outings illustrate the tension: enormous grosses but narrowing incremental profit once participation and production costs are accounted for.

For female leads, progress has been complicated by historical pay gaps. Julia Roberts’ £20m landmark salary for Erin Brockovich signalled a shift, yet her real ROI strength lay in slate curation—balancing four-quadrant appeal with controlled budgets and roles that travelled internationally. The lesson: negotiation prowess matters, but so does choosing vehicles where cost, audience and marketing can be aligned to deliver dependable over-performance.

THE FRANCHISE ECONOMY: IP AS THE STAR

Today’s tentpole market has elevated IP above individual celebrity. Marvel, DC, Star Wars and Fast & Furious are the principal brands; actors, however well paid, are components of larger machines. This has two ROI effects. First, the franchise platform can elevate relatively affordable talent into global recognition, generating surplus value for the studio. Second, as actors’ fees escalate across sequels, the studio leans more heavily on merchandising, spin-offs and streaming value to preserve margins.

The Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) is the masterclass. Early casting of Chris Evans and

Chris Hemsworth—before they were household names—kept initial costs modest while the brand did the heavy lifting. As the franchise’s economic flywheel turned, salaries rose, but the overall ROI remained strong because the films drove vast downstream revenues and platform loyalty.

Samuel L. Jackson represents another path to ROI dominance: volume and consistency. As Nick Fury—and across a vast filmography—he has accumulated a box-office total measured in tens of billions. His per-picture compensation has typically been disciplined relative to gross, making him a quietly formidable profit engine.

Zoe Saldaña’s trajectory—anchored in Avatar and the MCU—shows how participation in multiple mega-franchises compounds returns for studios. Early compensation levels, subsequently increased, were nonetheless small relative to the eye-watering global receipts of the films she headlined—making her an exceptional value in the aggregate ledger.

Robert Downey Jr.’s IronManarc is the outlier that proves the rule. His initial fee—famously modest for Iron Man—delivered one of the greatest ROI plays in modern film. As the universe scaled, so did his compensation, culminating in massive payouts for Avengers: Endgame. Even then, his value was defensible from a studio perspective:

he helped build a multi-billion-pound IP cathedral whose economics extended far beyond any single contract.

COUNTING THE COST: WHAT REALLY DRIVES ROI

If raw box-office totals are a blunt instrument, what refinements matter?

• Cost discipline. Budgets and star compensation must leave enough oxygen for a profit. A £150m gross can be more profitable than a £500m gross if the former carries lean costs and minimal participation.

• Slate strategy. Stars who choose balanced slates—mid-budget vehicles with strong scripts, counter-programming plays and occasional tentpoles—tend to deliver steadier returns than those who chase only blockbusters.

• International durability. Some performers travel exceptionally well; others are domestic heavyweights with muted overseas pull. Global marketing economics now demand cross-border resonance.

• Longevity and pace. The actors who work steadily—two or three films every year or two— compound small wins into large totals. Sporadic output with giant paydays can produce headlines but not always superior ROI.

• Platform effects. Streaming windows, series spin-offs and catalogue value increasingly shape ROI. Performers who anchor universes (without exhausting them) create annuity-like returns.

THE ULTIMATE ROI CHAMPIONS

Looking across a century, a few names stand out—not necessarily as the highest-paid or the most decorated, but as the most reliably accretive to studio value.

John Wayne exemplifies the male ROI champion of classical Hollywood. Over five decades, he led an astonishing number of Westerns and war films that delivered predictable profits. He did not command ruinous salaries, he turned out films at a brisk pace and his name functioned as a guarantee to exhibitors. The result: a long tail of cumulative surplus for studios that bet on familiarity and frequency.

Sandra Bullock embodies the modern ROI strategist among female stars. From Speed and While You Were Sleeping to The Blind Side, Gravity and The Proposal, she has repeatedly chosen projects with measured budgets and broad appeal. Her Gravity deal—combining a relatively modest upfront with a share of gross—produced a substantial personal payday while leaving the studio with a blockbusterlevel profit. Crucially, she achieved this without leaning on inherited IP, demonstrating that the judicious pairing of material, budget and audience can rival franchise economics.

LESSONS

FOR THE NEW ERA

Hollywood’s obsession with ROI has not

disappeared; it has diversified. In a world where streamers underwrite prestige series, theatrical windows compress and global audiences fragment, the profitable star is the one who bends economics in the studio’s favour across formats and time.

Three principles endure:

1. Price the risk, not the hype. Upfront fees plus participation must reflect genuine incremental demand the star can create. If the IP or concept does the heavy lifting, star comp should be proportionate.

2. Back the slate, not the single. Stars who stabilise a slate—punctuating tentpoles with profitable mid-budget wins—often out-earn flashier names on a risk-adjusted basis.

3. Build repeatable value. Franchises, character arcs and audience trust form the compounding engine. Stars who can return without fatigue, or reinvent without rupture, become long-term assets.

From Clark Gable to Scarlett Johansson, the rules of the game have evolved, but the studio ledger remains unsentimental. The highest-paid actor of any given year is not always the most profitable partner. The true ROI champions are those who consistently deliver value far beyond their cost— proof that, in the business of make-believe, the spreadsheets speak louder than the spotlights. i

Asia Pacific’s Wealth Revolution: Forging Fortunes in

a Dynamic Era

Asia Pacific now stands as the epicentre of global wealth creation. Where economic might once resided predominantly in the West, the balance has shifted decisively eastward. Relentless growth, technological innovation, the rise of a vast middle class and increasingly sophisticated financial ecosystems have combined to make the region a pace-setter for wealth generation at unprecedented scale. This is not a transient upswing but a structural transformation that is reshaping global power dynamics and opening unparalleled opportunities for investors and enterprises.

The velocity of wealth accumulation is striking. The region has already overtaken North America in the number of high-net-worth individuals and is set to extend that lead. Millions have moved out of poverty into burgeoning affluence as economies compound gains from industry, services and the digital sphere. Urbanisation has been central to this process. As people migrate from rural areas to rapidly growing cities, productivity rises, incomes increase and participation in consumer markets deepens. The demand for housing, infrastructure, goods and services generates a virtuous cycle of investment and employment that reinforces domestic growth engines.

Technology has been an equally powerful driver. Asia Pacific is not merely adopting innovation; it is originating it. Financial technology, e-commerce, artificial intelligence and advanced manufacturing have altered the region’s economic trajectory. New business models—from super-apps to platform logistics—have created investable opportunities across consumer and enterprise markets. Productivity has improved as automation and AI tools permeate supply chains and back-office functions. Access to finance has broadened as digital platforms bring investment and wealth tools to the mass-affluent and younger cohorts. In parallel, financial hubs such as Singapore and Hong Kong are advancing clear regulatory frameworks for digital assets and tokenised holdings, positioning themselves as global centres for capital formation.

Demographic change has reinforced these trends. By 2030, Asia Pacific is projected to host roughly two-thirds of the world’s middle class. Rising disposable incomes are propelling domestic consumption, reducing over-reliance on external demand and supplying a resilient base for local firms. The appetite for better education, healthcare and lifestyle products is spawning new categories and lifting established brands. This consumerisation of growth is supported by strong trade and integration. Dense networks of agreements, including the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, have deepened supply chains, lowered barriers and facilitated cross-border flows of goods, services and capital. Manufacturing remains a pillar, but higher-value services—from design and content to finance and cloud—are expanding rapidly.

Policy has underpinned the shift. Many governments have committed to credible macroeconomic management, from independent central banking and inflation targets to prudent fiscal frameworks. Regulatory environments have been steadily upgraded to attract foreign direct investment, streamline entry and reduce administrative friction. In leading financial centres, predictable, transparent regimes align with international norms, enabling sophisticated transactions while preserving market integrity.

Within this broad canvas, national stories stand out. China remains the region’s unparalleled

"Technology has been an equally powerful driver. Asia Pacific is not merely adopting innovation; it is originating it."

engine. Four decades of industrialisation and global integration have produced the largest uplift from poverty in history and created a vast pool of private wealth. Growth has matured and challenges have surfaced, but the strategic push toward technological self-reliance—in sectors such as electric vehicles, AI and renewable energy—continues to generate investable themes. A massive domestic market, ongoing urbanisation and deep manufacturing know-how sustain its central role even as policy pivots to balance innovation with stability.

India is the other pole of momentum. A youthful population, a rapidly expanding middle class and a thriving digital economy are driving one of the world’s most compelling growth narratives. Strength in IT services is being complemented by a rising manufacturing base and a vibrant startup ecosystem. Government programmes aimed at digital inclusion, infrastructure build-out and ease of doing business are drawing global capital. Gains in high-net-worth wealth and the proliferation of new-to-market investors reflect widening participation in the fruits of growth.

Across the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, diverse models add depth to the regional mosaic. Singapore anchors wealth management and family offices with political stability, rigorous regulation and sophisticated talent, while also cultivating leadership in green and digital finance. Indonesia leverages a vast domestic market, natural resources and a youthful demographic to expand manufacturing and scale a booming digital economy. Vietnam has emerged as a preferred hub for export-oriented production, supported by favourable trade access and an adaptable workforce. Malaysia’s diversified base in manufacturing, services and commodities is being refreshed by digitalisation and sustainability initiatives. Thailand is evolving towards higher-tech industry while retaining strengths in tourism. The Philippines combines an expanding manufacturing footprint with a globally competitive services sector led by business-process outsourcing and an Englishspeaking labour force.

Developed Asian economies continue to shape wealth dynamics. Japan channels enduring strengths in robotics, advanced manufacturing and healthcare, remaining a key source of capital despite demographic headwinds. South Korea’s global champions in electronics and automotive sustain high value-added exports, reinforced by substantial R&D intensity and a digitally fluent society. Australia blends resource wealth with a sophisticated financial sector and strong

human-capital inflows, linking commodity cycles to investment in technology, services and real estate.

Several cross-currents will define the next phase. The green economy is moving from ambition to allocation as capital targets renewable energy, electrified transport, storage and low-carbon supply chains. Asia Pacific is central to this shift, not only as a producer and adopter of clean technologies but as a designer of regulatory and market frameworks that can scale them. The digital economy will extend its reach as e-commerce, payments and cloud services penetrate new segments and geographies, bringing micro-entrepreneurs and small firms into formal networks. Healthcare and biotechnology will command growing attention as ageing in parts of the region intersects with rising incomes and demand for advanced therapies, diagnostics and digital health.

Investment in hard and soft infrastructure will remain decisive. Transport, logistics, energy systems and high-speed connectivity are essential to sustain momentum and distribute opportunity more evenly across urban and secondary cities. Public–private partnerships and blended finance are likely to expand as governments seek to crowd in capital while managing fiscal constraints. Alongside build-out, attention is turning to governance and risk management— cybersecurity, data protection, climate disclosure and resilient design—embedding durability into the architecture of growth.

Risks are real and warrant sober assessment. Geopolitical frictions can unsettle trade, supply chains and technological collaboration. Inequality has widened within some markets, testing social cohesion and policy frameworks. Ageing populations in parts of North Asia will reshape labour supply and welfare systems, while environmental stress underscores the urgency of sustainable practice. Regulatory complexity remains a navigation challenge for cross-border investors, even as alignment improves. A historic intergenerational wealth transfer is also under way; succession planning and professionalisation will determine whether family wealth and enterprises endure across cycles.

Yet the fundamentals remain robust. The region’s dynamism, resilience and entrepreneurial capacity have repeatedly demonstrated an ability to adapt strategy to shifting conditions. From the manufacturing depth of China and Vietnam to the digital prowess of India and Singapore, Asia Pacific continues to diversify its engines of prosperity. For businesses and investors, the imperative is to pair ambition with granularity: understand the distinct contours of each market, engage the technological frontier with discipline, and align with the region’s evolving social contract. Asia Pacific is not merely a destination for growth; it is the frontier where the next chapter of global prosperity is being written, and where fortunes—corporate and individual—are being forged in real time. i

A Not-So-Tiny Step Forward in Alzheimer’s Research: Sex-Based Science Gains Ground

For decades, medical research has overlooked a simple truth: women and men experience diseases differently. The tide is finally turning—and the Women’s Brain Foundation (WBF) stands at the heart of this transformation.

RECOGNISING WHAT SCIENCE MISSED

The realisation that women and men are not biologically identical is gaining long-overdue traction. A recent exploration of PubMed using the keywords Alzheimer’s sex differences revealed nearly 300 publications this year alone examining how dementia affects the sexes differently.

As early as 2006, neurologist Larry Cahill warned that “a rapidly burgeoning literature documents copious sex influences on brain anatomy, chemistry and function.” Yet for too long, research has defaulted to male subjects—human and animal alike—leaving crucial insights about women’s brain health undiscovered.

“Any shift in the scientific mindset that moves away from studying only male models—human or animal—is both reassuring and welcome,” says Dr. Antonella Santuccione Chadha, MD, PhD, CEO and Co-Founder of the Women’s Brain Foundation (WBF).

PIONEERING SEX-BASED EVIDENCE SINCE 2017

Founded in 2017 and transformed into a Foundation in 2024, the Women’s Brain Foundation has been a global pioneer in sexand gender-based neuroscience. Working with partners such as the World Economic Forum, Medscape Education, and international research institutions, WBF advocates for the integration of biological sex and sociocultural gender in every aspect of medicine.

Since 2018, WBF scientists have produced over 50 peer-reviewed publications and five books, spanning reviews, meta-analyses, and perspective papers in leading journals. Each contributes to building the scientific foundation of precision medicine—medicine that sees the individual, not the average.

Beyond research, the Foundation collaborates with patients, caregivers, and policymakers to drive awareness and change. Its forthcoming study on the Alzheimer’s care pathway reveals that women and men navigate markedly different diagnostic and treatment experiences—from when they are first assessed to how therapies are prescribed.

FROM ADVOCACY TO ACTION

WBF has played a leading role in promoting

regulatory reform across the bioprotection and biotech sectors, and it provides scientific advice to innovative start-ups including Bottneuro AG, Equal Care, Hirncoach AG, Kompanion Care, and ReconnectLab.

"Because women’s brains deserve science that sees them."

Its contributions have been widely recognised. In 2025, Acquisition International named the Foundation Non-Profit Organisation for Leading Specialists in Precision Medicine & Research –Switzerland.

Building on this momentum, WBF has joined forces with Persistent Systems to apply artificial intelligence and knowledge graphs to brain-health research. The goal: to map environmental, genetic, and socioeconomic factors—together with sex, gender, and ethnicity—to better understand conditions such as Alzheimer’s disease. This approach will allow scientists to visualise complex relationships, identify overlooked risk factors, and guide the development of more personalised prevention and treatment strategies.

“Factors that play a crucial role in disease onset, risk, progression, and treatment response have been, in this era of big data and AI, largely ignored,” says Dr. Santuccione Chadha. “This is not only poor science—it is negligence.”

THE WOMEN’S BRAIN FOUNDATION ACADEMY: TURNING KNOWLEDGE INTO IMPACT

To amplify its mission, the Foundation proudly introduces the WBF Academy—a pioneering educational platform that transforms scientific knowledge into accessible learning.

Through certified programs, public lectures, and interactive courses, the Academy equips health professionals, researchers, policymakers, and citizens to understand how sex and gender shape brain and mental health. It bridges the gap between research and real-world application, cultivating a new generation of informed leaders driving equity in healthcare.

The Academy complements WBF’s outreach initiatives, including its signature podcast, “Closing the Gap,” where experts discuss how sex and gender differences influence diseases ranging from Alzheimer’s to depression, multiple sclerosis, and beyond.

LOOKING AHEAD

Change is happening—slowly, but surely. The scientific world is beginning to see what the Women’s Brain Foundation has championed from the start: that understanding sex and gender differences is not a niche pursuit, but the cornerstone of better science for all.

Join us in this mission. Support the Women’s Quota Campaign or become part of our programs through the WBF Academy. Together, we can ensure that the future of medicine is truly inclusive, intelligent, and precise.

Because women’s brains deserve science that sees them. i

LearnmoreabouttheWomen’sBrainFoundation: www.womensbrainproject.com

From Bathing Belles to Brand Ambassadors: The Profitable Evolution of Beauty Pageants

The crown. The sash. The evening gown. For over a century, beauty pageants have evolved from local tourist stunts and “bathing girl revues” into global spectacle. While they began as simple aesthetic contests, modern pageants have adapted to shifting social values, recasting themselves as platforms for “beauty with a purpose”—female empowerment, advocacy and social impact. Are they still genuine money-makers in the 21st century? At the international level, the answer is largely yes, underpinned by a sophisticated model of licensing, media rights and brand sponsorship.

HUMBLE BEGINNINGS, COMMERCIAL DNA

The modern pageant traces a clear commercial lineage to late-nineteenth-century America. The 1880 event at Rehoboth Beach in Delaware is often cited as the first recorded contest in the United States, but the formula matured in 1921 with Miss America in Atlantic City—consciously designed to extend the tourist season beyond Labour Day. Similar “civic boosterism” drove Galveston’s Splash Day and its Bathing Girl Revue, which evolved into the International Pageant of Pulchritude. These spectacles were, at heart, marketing exercises: staged to fill hotel rooms, sell newspapers and brand cities.

The post-war period delivered a golden age. Miss World (1951) and Miss Universe (1952) rode the expansion of television into living rooms worldwide, transforming winners into national ambassadors and global celebrities. Fame, however, brought scrutiny. The 1968 Miss America protest crystallised feminist critiques of objectification and narrow beauty norms. That backlash forced a strategic rethink: if pageants were to remain investable brands, their proposition had to evolve beyond the male gaze.

FROM AESTHETICS TO “PURPOSE”

The industry’s response—spanning the 1970s through the 1990s and accelerating in the new century—was to reposition the titleholder as a well-rounded advocate. Judging criteria diversified to encompass public speaking, social causes, education and talent; swimsuit segments were modified, downplayed or removed altogether in some systems. Vanessa Williams’s historic Miss America win in 1984 signalled a slow but meaningful broadening of representation, a trend later accelerated by global franchises promoting inclusion across race, body type and background. Campaigns such as Miss Universe’s

“#ConfidentlyBeautiful” reframed beauty as confidence and competence. This was not purely moral repositioning; it was brand risk management and market expansion, designed to attract sponsors who wanted empowerment aligned content and to protect broadcast relationships in markets sensitive to changing norms.

THE GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

Beneath the glitter lies a layered, resilient business. At the apex are the “Big Four” international contests—Miss World, Miss Universe, Miss International and Miss Earth. Around them sits an intricate mesh of national licensees, regional preliminaries, training academies, fashion partners, host-city promoters and media distributors. The economics turn on four interlocking engines: rights and licensing, sponsorship, contestant-driven revenues and ancillary monetisation.

Media rights and licensing remain foundational. International organisers sell broadcast and streaming rights territory by territory, often bundling behind-the-scenes content, rehearsal footage and documentary strands that expand inventory for partners. Structurally, the system is franchised. National directors pay fees—sometimes significant—to field a delegate and to operate their domestic pageant under the mothership’s brand and rules. This decentralised approach converts the global crown into a repeatable cash flow, as each national market bears the cost of its own production while contributing fees up the chain. The model insulates the centre: even if a particular final underperforms commercially, the ecosystem below continues to generate licensing income.

Sponsorship and advertising form the second pillar. Pageants deliver a targeted, passionate audience across fashion, beauty, travel and luxury verticals—attractive to brands seeking product integration and culturally resonant storytelling. Beauty houses, skincare, haircare, jewellers and apparel labels secure logo placement on sash backdrops, stage sets and digital overlays; they also insert products into contestants’ preparation journeys and content series. Airlines, hotels and tourism boards leverage hosting to showcase destinations, often co-financing production infrastructure and week-long pageant festivals that broadcast a soft-power narrative. In Southeast Asia and Latin America—where pageantry commands fervent followings—corporate support

can be especially deep, with multi-year category exclusivities and in-market activation.

Contestant-driven revenues are more prominent at local and national levels. Entry fees, wardrobe and coaching packages, programme advertising, and optional competitions (for example, talent or photogenic) contribute to cost recovery for organisers. While this model is most established in the United States, variations exist globally, helping to underwrite venue rental, production teams, broadcast crews and prize packages. Critics argue that such structures risk tilting the economics onto participants; best-practice operators respond with transparent fee schedules, scholarships and community fund-raising that offset costs.

Ancillary monetisation has expanded rapidly in the digital era. Titleholders act as year-round brand ambassadors, with management contracts enabling organisers to place winners in advertising, speaking tours, endorsements and charitable campaigns. Social platforms extend the season: long-form training content, behind-the-scenes diaries and interactive voting generate sponsorship inventory, affiliate sales and subscription revenue. E-commerce collaborations—capsule fashion lines, cosmetics, jewellery—convert fandom into merchandise sales. For the host location, the halo includes broadcast visibility, influencer tourism, trade showcases and, in some cases, governmentbacked destination marketing budgets.

PROFITABILITY WITH CAVEATS

On balance, the international pageant ecosystem remains commercially attractive. The franchise

model spreads risk and creates durable, annuitylike cash flows; the content is scalable across platforms; and the titleholder’s ambassadorial calendar keeps the brand alive between finals. Yet profitability is not automatic. Three variables determine outcomes: cost discipline, rights strategy and cultural fit.

Cost discipline begins with production design. Modern finals are television theatre: lighting rigs, augmented-reality graphics, staging, rehearsals, guest artists, live orchestration and security. Budgets can escalate quickly. Savvy organisers co-produce with host cities, negotiate in-kind value (venues, accommodation, local transport), and stagger expenses across multi-year hosting agreements. Small changes—modular set designs, hybrid live-to-tape formats, shared technical crews across events—protect margins without diluting spectacle.

Rights strategy now means streaming as much as broadcast. Linear ratings have softened in many markets; countering that, digital audiences are highly engaged and global. Simulcast deals, geo-targeted ad sales, FAST channels and social partnerships monetise reach beyond a single prime-time slot. Owning adjacent content— national prelim highlights, contestant profiles, “purpose” project documentaries—builds a library that compounds over time and attracts sponsors who want brand-safe, evergreen material.

Cultural fit is existential. Pageants must navigate a patchwork of regulatory, religious and social expectations. Empowerment framing, community

work and scholarship programmes help to anchor legitimacy. Diversity, equity and inclusion are not optional extras but core to brand survival. Missteps carry consequences: advertisers and broadcasters will walk if content jars with local values. The most successful organisations invest in governance— clear judging criteria, independent auditing of votes, safeguarding protocols and robust rules of conduct—to foster trust with contestants, audiences and corporate partners.

REGIONAL DYNAMICS AND SOFT POWER

Geography shapes the economics. In parts of Asia and Latin America, pageant culture is mainstream entertainment, generating high media value and significant sponsor demand. In Western Europe, interest is more cyclical; profitability often leans on tourism boards and bespoke brand partnerships rather than mass ratings. The Middle East and Africa present growth potential, with careful localisation. For host nations, the calculus extends beyond television to soft power: a well-staged international final projects modernity, hospitality and creative industry capability, often aligned with broader national branding campaigns.

THE ESG QUESTION

Critiques have not vanished; they have evolved. Investors and sponsors increasingly evaluate environmental, social and governance performance. Carbon footprints for large productions, responsible supply chains for wardrobe and jewellery, and community impact from “purpose” projects now feature in due diligence. Pageants that document measurable social outcomes—funds raised, communities served, causes advanced—create a

defensible proposition for partners. Those that rely solely on spectacle risk reputational drag in brandsensitive markets.

OUTLOOK: BRAND, PURPOSE AND CASH FLOW

Is pageantry still a money-maker? At scale, yes— particularly for international owners that balance spectacle with substance. The economic engine is diversified: licensing and media rights throw off predictable income; sponsorship deepens as brands seek values-aligned storytelling; contestantlevel revenues underpin national systems; and digital extensions monetise attention throughout the year. The model has also proved adaptable: as social norms shifted, leading franchises reframed their story without abandoning commercial discipline.

For investors and partners, the playbook is straightforward. Anchor the brand in empowerment and inclusion; professionalise governance and measurement; prioritise rights deals that travel across platforms; and control production costs through repeatable design. For host cities, treat pageants as part of a wider destination strategy, not a one-night spike.

The tiara still glitters, but it is the spreadsheet that sustains the shine. What began as seaside boosterism has matured into a global content and licensing business—resilient when run with rigour, and increasingly judged not just by television ratings but by the credibility of its purpose. In that fusion of brand, cause and cash flow lies the modern pageant’s enduring—and profitable— appeal. i

> Bottled Water’s Unquenchable Thirst: A Modern Business Empire Built on an Ancient Need

Bottled water is a paradox of modern commerce: a multi-billion-pound industry built around a product that, in many markets, flows freely from the tap. Its endurance speaks to the power of branding, convenience and shifting consumer priorities. The story is not new. As early as the seventeenth century, British springs such as the Holy Well were bottling “curative” waters; by 1767, Jackson’s Spa in Boston was selling commercially in America. Nineteenth-century names that endure—Evian (1826) and Poland Spring (1845)—marketed mineral waters as health tonics for the affluent, decanted in heavy, costly glass that kept the category niche.

THE PLASTIC REVOLUTION—AND THE RISE OF THE GIANTS

The industry’s inflection point arrived with polyethylene terephthalate (PET) in the 1970s. Lightweight, cheap and robust, PET unlocked mass distribution and transformed bottled water from spa cure to daily convenience. This innovation coincided with a growing wellness culture and episodic concerns about municipal water quality in parts of Europe and the United States. Marketing seized the moment: Perrier’s late-1970s campaign reintroduced sparkling mineral water as aspirational, paving the way for mainstream adoption. By 2016, US bottledwater volumes had overtaken carbonated soft drinks—a symbolic inversion of the old beverage order and evidence that “better for you” positioning had fused with portability to create a new default drink.

THE PORTFOLIO PLAY: GLOBAL CONGLOMERATES AND PREMIUM NICHES

Today’s market is led by diversified multinationals that apply scale economics, distribution reach and brand architecture to a category once dominated by local springs.

Nestlé operates a barbell strategy: mass brands such as Pure Life for volume and icons such as Perrier and San Pellegrino in the premium sparkling tier. The Coca-Cola Company mirrors the playbook with Dasani—purified water with added minerals for taste—and a premium, vapour-distilled proposition in Smartwater. PepsiCo fields Aquafina at scale and LIFEWTR at the design-led, higher-margin end. Danone anchors European leadership with naturally sourced stalwarts including Evian and Volvic, leaning into provenance, purity credentials and sustainability narratives.

Alongside the giants, luxury-leaning specialists have carved profitable niches through origin stories and design. Fiji Water trades on artesian aquifers and distinctive square bottles; Voss and Icelandic Glacial package minimalism and remote purity. These brands prove the category’s elasticity: consumers will pay a substantial premium for perceived quality, lifestyle cues and aesthetics, even when production inputs are broadly similar.

THE PROFITABILITY PUZZLE

Contrary to intuition, the water itself is not where the margin resides. Economics derive from scale manufacturing, packaging efficiency, distribution discipline and brand equity. A half-litre PET bottle costs only a few pence to produce; wholesale and retail mark-ups multiply the price, creating attractive unit margins that compound at volume. For operators with high-utilisation plants, optimised logistics and powerful route-tomarket, small per-bottle profits scale to billions.

Brand positioning magnifies returns. Premium labels command multiples of mainstream pricing on broadly comparable cost bases, transferring value from packaging, provenance and marketing into margin. Portfolio management matters: mass brands deliver throughput and shelf presence; premium brands deliver price realisation; sparkling and functional extensions (electrolytes, vitamins, flavour) expand profit pools and defend share against adjacent categories such as energy drinks or flavoured seltzers.

Retail dynamics are pivotal. Supermarket private label applies price pressure at the base, while convenience and on-premise channels preserve absolute margin through higher ticket prices. Contracting with foodservice chains and airlines secures predictable volume; direct-store delivery systems can protect facings and in-stock performance in impulse channels. Revenuemanagement tools—pack size architecture, promotional cadence, and mix management—are now as sophisticated in water as in carbonates.

Health, Trust and the Consumer Proposition Bottled water has benefited from the long arc of health consciousness. Positioning as a zerocalorie, sugar-free alternative to soft drinks created a powerful substitution effect, particularly among younger consumers. Perception, however, is fragile. In developed markets, where tap water is typically safe and cheap, the category must continually justify its premium through

convenience, consistency, taste profile (still versus sparkling, mineral content), and lifestyle branding. In emerging markets, bottled water often fulfils a different role—as a perceived necessity in the absence of reliable municipal supply—supporting both volume growth and social licence arguments around safety.

SUSTAINABILITY:

THE BUSINESS IMPERATIVE

The industry’s greatest strategic challenge is environmental. Single-use plastics have become emblematic of waste, prompting regulatory scrutiny and consumer backlash. Leading players are racing to decarbonise and de-plasticise their models: raising recycled PET (rPET) content, investing in closed-loop collection, trialling refill and returnables, and exploring alternative formats such as aluminium and glass for premium tiers. Progress is uneven and trade-offs are real. rPET supply is constrained and often pricier; glass is infinitely recyclable but heavy to transport; aluminium recycles well but carries its own extraction footprint.

Credible ESG strategies must go beyond packaging. Source stewardship—sustainable

abstraction, watershed protection, community engagement—has become material to risk management and brand equity. Transparent reporting on water use, recycled content, and post-consumer collection, backed by thirdparty certification, is increasingly a condition for retailer listings and institutional capital. Companies that treat sustainability as a compliance exercise risk share erosion to brands that embed circularity and locality into their propositions.

REGULATION AND THE COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

Policy is tightening. Deposit-return schemes, extended producer responsibility fees, recycledcontent mandates and single-use restrictions are reshaping cost structures and forcing design changes. Players with scale, capital and R&D depth are better positioned to adapt; laggards face margin compression. Private label will leverage retailer ESG targets to win shelf space with credible sustainability claims at lower prices. At the same time, filtration and refill systems—at home, at work, and in horeca—represent a slowburn competitive threat by offering “sustainable convenience” without packaging.

Mergers and acquisitions will continue to refine portfolios as corporates shed non-core regional waters and double down on premium, functional and on-the-go propositions. Partnerships with collection initiatives and recycling infrastructure are likely to proliferate as firms seek to secure rPET supply and demonstrate progress.

WHAT THE NUMBERS MEAN FOR INVESTORS

Bottled water’s investment case rests on resilient demand, attractive cash conversion and the optionality of premiumisation and functionality. Risks centre on input costs (resin, energy), regulation, reputational exposure and the availability/pricing of rPET. Businesses that can sustain price/mix, hold or grow share in convenience channels, and credibly lead on sustainability are best placed to defend margins. Balance-sheet strength matters: capex for lightweighting, rPET integration and logistics optimisation is rising, as are working-capital needs where deposit systems expand.

Valuation premia accrue to portfolios with iconic brands, advantaged spring sources, strong on-premise contracts and demonstrable

ESG momentum. Conversely, commoditised purified waters with thin differentiation are most vulnerable to private label and refill substitution.

THE ROAD AHEAD

Global demand is set to grow, propelled by urbanisation, rising incomes in developing economies and continued health orientation. Functional and flavoured waters add innovation headroom; sparkling continues to trade consumers up from both tap and sugary beverages. Yet the social contract is changing. The industry must reconcile convenience with circularity, premium with provenance, growth with guardianship of shared resources.

The paradox endures: selling water in a world awash with taps. The winners will be those that make the paradox palatable—by pairing brand and distribution excellence with measurable environmental leadership and source stewardship. Bottled water has shown it can outlast fashions and overtake colas. Its next test is to prove that profitability and sustainability can flow from the same spring. i

The Unseen Shift: How Creeping Normality Rewrites Our World

Gradual, barely perceptible shifts can normalise the unacceptable— reshaping everything from corporate decision-making to ecosystems and civil discourse. Understanding “creeping normality” is essential to resisting silent decline.

In an age of instant communication and headline-grabbing shocks—a market convulsion, a breakthrough in science, a convulsive political moment—we are primed to notice the dramatic. Yet many of the most consequential transformations arrive quietly. They advance by increments, too subtle to provoke alarm at any single step, until a once-unthinkable state of affairs feels ordinary. This is creeping normality: the process by which societies acclimatise to radical, often undesirable, change.

Popularised by Jared Diamond in Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed, the concept explains how a chain of small, individually defensible decisions can cumulate into disaster. It is the proverbial boiling-frog parable: when the temperature rises slowly, the creature never leaps. In human systems, the same logic applies— familiarity blunts vigilance, path dependence narrows imagination, and yesterday’s exceptions become today’s rules.

CORPORATE DRIFT: WHEN CAUTION ERODES INTO CATASTROPHE

The business world offers a cautionary register. Catastrophe seldom erupts without a prelude; it is preceded by normalised deviance, where practices once deemed unacceptable are reclassified as tolerable because “nothing bad happened last time.”

The Challenger shuttle tragedy in 1986 was not an unforeseeable bolt from the blue but the end point of incremental risk acceptance. Engineers had long flagged concerns about O-ring performance in cold conditions. Initially, those warnings triggered delay and review. Over successive “successful” launches, tolerance for erosion crept upward, reframing an exception as an acceptable parameter. Schedule pressure, reputational stakes and group dynamics did the rest. On the day of the launch—colder than previous thresholds—the programme crossed a line that earlier standards would have prohibited.

Financial markets rehearsed a similar logic ahead of the 2008 crisis. What began as occasional exceptions to credit standards hardened into

"The pattern is familiar: short-term incentives, selective memory and success bias convert caution into ritual. Organisations mistake survivorship for prudence and confuse the absence of harm with the presence of safety."

normal practice. As subprime originations proved lucrative, underwriting loosened; layered securitisations and CDOs abstracted risk from its source; models assumed stability because recent history suggested it. Each innovation nudged the boundary a fraction, and each quarter “without incident” ratified the new baseline. By the time the edifice wobbled, complexity and complacency had obscured exposure.

The pattern is familiar: short-term incentives, selective memory and success bias convert caution into ritual. Organisations mistake survivorship for prudence and confuse the absence of harm with the presence of safety.

ENVIRONMENTAL BASELINES: LOSS HIDDEN IN PLAIN SIGHT

Creeping normality is even more insidious in nature, where gradual change escapes casual perception. Ecologists call it “shifting baseline syndrome”: each generation calibrates expectations to the degraded conditions it inherits, forgetting prior abundance.

A river once thick with salmon may thin year after year as runoff, extraction and warming take their toll. Those who remember the past lament the loss; those who do not regard the diminished state as normal, sapping urgency for restoration. Fisheries management, biodiversity protection and water policy all suffer when memory shortens and reference points slip.

Climate change is the master case. Global temperatures tick upward by tenths of a

degree; heatwaves that were once “once-incentury” recur with unnerving cadence; wildfire seasons lengthen; glaciers withdraw. Because the increments are modest and uneven, lived experience adapts: hotter summers, milder winters, new pests, new planting dates. Records fall so frequently that the word “record” loses force. Our idea of normal weather migrates, masking the true pace of disruption and dulling political will.

CULTURE,

PRIVACY AND THE PUBLIC

SQUARE

The slow slide operates across the social realm, too. Two decades of convenience have traded away vast tranches of privacy. What began as benign personalisation—recommendations, easier checkout—has matured into ubiquitous tracking. Each new data capture—locations, contacts, biometrics—arrived with a minor benefit and a minor concession, rarely alarming enough to resist. The aggregation is startling: a commercial surveillance architecture in which behavioural exhaust is the most valuable commodity, and anonymity the exception.

Public discourse has followed a parallel arc. Rhetoric once considered beyond the pale can be normalised through repetition and the absence of

sanction. Outrage fatigues; boundaries blur. The floor of acceptable debate drops by degrees, and tactics that once drew censure become routine. Institutions built on shared norms struggle when those norms are continuously renegotiated downward.

Workplace cultures also drift. “Temporary” overtime becomes standard; “just this once” corners become process; “pilot” surveillance tools become permanent productivity systems. What is framed as flexibility hardens into expectation, reshaping contracts and trust.

RECOGNISING THE DRIFT—AND RESISTING IT

How, then, to detect a force defined by its subtlety? The first discipline is history. Fixed reference points—documented baselines, archived metrics, institutional memory— counter the amnesia that enables drift. Newsrooms, researchers and artists serve as external memory, recording trajectories that daily life obscures. Boards and leaders should demand longitudinal dashboards: safety incidents by severity, environmental indicators against pre-agreed benchmarks, culture metrics that track not just outcomes but practices.

Second, cultivate counterfactuals. Ask explicitly: “What was our standard five years ago? Why did it change? What harm did we prevent by holding the line?” In risk committees and executive reviews, normalise the question “Are we accepting this because it is safe—or because we have been lucky?” Distinguish evidence of safety from the mere absence of accidents.

Third, design guardrails. In engineering, that means hard limits that cannot be waived without independent sign-off; in finance, underwriting rules that escalate scrutiny with clear triggers; in technology, privacy by default and data minimisation baked into architecture. In culture, it means codifying norms—civility, transparency, whistle-blower protection—and enforcing them consistently, however inconvenient.

Fourth, diversify perspectives. Homogeneous groups rationalise drift; heterogeneous teams challenge it. Invite external challenge— regulators, community stakeholders, independent experts—to stress-test assumptions and expose blind spots. Transparency is a disinfectant: publish targets and progress so that publics can hold institutions to their pledges.

Finally, respect intuition without being ruled by it. That nagging sense that “this feels off” is often an early signal. Pair it with data. Keep a decision log that records when standards are relaxed, why, and under what conditions they will be restored—or tightened. Make reversibility a criterion: prefer changes that can be rolled back if evidence disappoints.

LEADERSHIP FOR THE LONG NOW

Creeping normality preys on impatience and short horizons. Effective leadership stretches time. It privileges stewardship over quarterly optics, weighs tail risks as seriously as central cases, and treats attention as a resource to be allocated to slow threats as well as fast ones. It nurtures institutional memory and rewards those who maintain standards when expediency tempts otherwise.

The skill is less about predicting shocks than about noticing slopes. In business, in policy, in ecosystems, trajectories tell truths that snapshots hide. The frog parable endures not because frogs behave so foolishly, but because people do. The question worth asking, regularly and aloud, is disarmingly simple: Was the water thiswarmyesterday? i

Asian Development Bank: Fixing the Fatal Funding Gap Fueling Asia’s Road Safety Crisis

A strategic overhaul in financing—through dedicated funds, development bank support, and performance-based partnerships—can help unlock life-saving investments in road safety across Asia and the Pacific.

Asia and the Pacific is dangerously off track in its efforts to make roads safer. Across the region, road crashes kill about 2,000 people a day, nearly 60 percent of the global toll, draining up to 8 percent of national GDP in some countries and hitting young people and vulnerable travelers the hardest.

To address the carnage on the region’s roads, we need a "safe systems" approach that accounts for human error through more forgiving road design, safer vehicles, safer drivers, managed speeds, and efficient post-crash care. But these interventions cost money, and the money isn't allocated there.

Less than half the countries in Asia have identified funds to implement their national road safety strategies. The system is failing to deliver because it is underfunded. The question has always been why.

Traditional funding mechanisms are failing. At the start of the decade, the annual requirement for road safety in Asia and the Pacific was estimated at $57bn. Now, the annual investment needed is estimated at $75bn. A huge number, but just a mere fraction of the $1.5tn lost each year. Road safety makes perfect economic sense.

The core of the problem has always been a split incentive. A classic market failure.

The societal burden of road crashes—in healthcare, disability support, lost productivity, and human suffering—are not borne by the entities that design, build, finance, and profit from road infrastructure. The costs are concentrated, but the benefits are dispersed across the economy.

Insurance companies pay fewer claims. Hospitals treat fewer trauma patients. Commercial fleets experience fewer losses of vehicles and drivers. Society as a whole avoids the loss of a productive citizen. The builder has little financial reason to invest beyond what is enforced. Safety is engineered out. This disconnect between who pays and who decides creates a vicious cycle of underinvestment.

That failure is now a strategic opportunity.

The next five years will determine whether we find a path to road safety or that goal is a forgotten promise.

The path forward requires a financial commitment from governments and the private sector. National governments must play a central role, prioritising safety investments in transport, health, and law enforcement. But they cannot do it alone. They need partners who can bring capital and innovation to the table. They need a new financial toolbox. Here are the starting points for “trillion-dollar opportunity” conversations.

Ring-fence government road safety funding. Current road safety funding streams are often opaque. The numbers are buried within the vast budgets of transport, health, justice, and other ministries. General tax revenues, the default source in many countries, lack the accountability and transparency that a crisis of this scale demands.

Further, revenues from excise duties on fossil fuels, a bedrock of transport sector financing, are set to erode in the future. The global energy transition is accelerating. We need more direct, transparent mechanisms.

Dedicated road safety funds are needed. They collate diverse revenue streams like fuel excise,

parking fees, traffic fines, truck weight taxes, toll charges, vehicle registration charges, and levies on private sector-operated insurance. To achieve the best results, road safety funding needs to be made predictable; we must tie all road safety spending directly to specific targets and track performance relentlessly.

Use development banks as a catalyst. Between 2018 and 2024, multilateral development banks mobilised over $6 billion for road safety in low- and middle-income countries. There is a chance that this funding could reach $10 billion over the next decade. To leverage and optimise, the focus must shift to standalone, resultsbased programs where these institutions partner with governments to drive substantial, targeted investment. This financing should be the catalyst for change.

Make safety profitable. A new toolbox of financial instruments is needed to translate the social and economic returns of road safety into a language that private investors can understand and decide upon. This involves moving beyond traditional models. We need frameworks that align financial incentives with life-saving outcomes. We can start by embedding road safety ratings and fatality reduction targets as key performance indicators in public private partnership contracts. These projects should also include road safety-related performancebased contracts.

Reform project appraisal models. Traditional Cost-Benefit Analysis has historically prioritised benefits that are easy to quantify in vehiclecentric terms, such as travel time or fuel savings. The massive cost to the society (medical expenses, lost productivity, and human suffering from crashes) is often discounted. This creates a distorted picture. We need different accounting.

Identify quick wins. Even with the capital in hand, we can’t do everything at once. The crisis demands immediate and high-impact actions. We need some quick wins: proven, cost-effective measures that can be deployed across the region to save lives. It is about scaling what already works, everywhere. The immediate task for leaders is to define and commit to this priority list.

We have a clear opportunity. Governments, development institutions, and private sector partners close the road safety funding gap by working together. By building financial systems that reward life-saving outcomes, Asia can turn a shared failure into a life-saving collective success on its roads. i

Joschka Fischer:

The World of Yesterday >

As World War II raged in Europe in the early 1940s, Stefan Zweig’s memoir Die Welt von Gestern: Erinnerungen eines Europäers (The World of Yesterday: Memoirs of a European) was published by a German exile publisher in Stockholm. Zweig, full of sorrow, describes the “rupture of time” that brought the old Europe to an end in the fury of two terrible world wars.

Are Europeans today undergoing another such rupture? Are we once again witnessing the disappearance of the old order – the only one that most of us have ever known? If so, it is an unspeakable loss. The old order guaranteed peace, security, and prosperity – only to Western Europe, initially, but then to the rest of the European continent (with the exception of the former Yugoslavia) after 1989. That happy time now increasingly looks like The World of Yesterday 2.0.

It is worth recalling that America’s previous withdrawal from the continent created a fatal opening for radical ideologies and hateful propaganda. Under Hitler and the Nazis, extreme nationalists, glorifiers of violence and racism, enemies of democracy, and ardent supporters of dictatorship decided that their moment had come. The Nazis seized power and deliberately brought on WWII, plunging Europe into the abyss.

Where do we stand today? Russia has not only launched a war of conquest and annihilation against Ukraine but also begun to test NATO’s willingness to defend its airspace with drone intrusions into Poland and Romania, and fighter planes flying over Estonia. Still, while US statements of solidarity have often sounded rather weak since Donald Trump’s return to the White House, it would be a mistake to say that the situation is comparable to a world war.

Rather, Russian President Vladimir Putin sees an opportunity to reshape – with Trump’s (voluntary or involuntary) help – the world order in his favor. Europe is the first port of call for his revisionist strategy, because it is militarily weak and indecisive, and it can no longer count fully on America.

Here in Europe, many are asking themselves what purpose Trump’s policies are supposed to

"Trump may

well fear an escalation of the Ukraine war into a major conflagration, but his approach is raising the odds of precisely that outcome."

serve. Why is he going out of his way to weaken the United States and the broader West? Why is he so soft on Putin?

Trump may well fear an escalation of the Ukraine war into a major conflagration, but his approach is raising the odds of precisely that outcome. His administration’s policy of appeasement toward the Kremlin and aggression toward European allies has obviously encouraged Putin to push even harder.

The world-historic success of the transatlantic world rested on the military protection that America provided. But owing to the support from strong alliances (NATO for security, the European Union for the economy, democracy, and law), Western Europe, during the four decades of the Cold War, became a kind of protectorate. In the process, it lost – or perhaps forgot – its sovereignty.

Europeans lived well and safely in the world of yesterday, but we neglected the duties that arose with our growing prosperity. Everything changed when Trump arrived, declaring, in effect, “That’s it; no more.” The subsequent plunge from a state of cozy comfort into the icy reality of power politics happened so fast that we could not adapt. It all came as quite a shock, made even worse by the equally sudden return of war to the continent.

But another question has come into sharper focus under Trump’s second presidency: What will become of America? Though it remains the preeminent global power, this proud, old democracy is clearly in danger. Not a day goes by without news of some further loss of rights, disregard for procedures, or violation of norms. The entire federal government has become an instrument for satisfying Trump’s personal whims.

“The land of the free” is transforming into an oligarchic autocracy before our eyes. The endless flow of decrees from the White House has fundamentally changed America’s place in the world. The country used to represent the promise of freedom; now, it is the latest and most highprofile case of democratic erosion and rising authoritarianism.

Freedom of expression – once the sacred cow of American democracy – is being discarded, replaced by a regime of lèse-majesté (the criminalisation of speech against a monarch). There are even serious debates about whether the US – the birthplace of modern democracy –will have free and fair elections in the future. Let us not forget, whatever happens in the US will always affect us all. A world without a powerful, democratic America would be fundamentally different, and unquestionably worse.

Like Zweig, I cannot shake off the impression that the sun is setting on us. Something is definitely coming to an end. My attachment to the idea of the transatlantic West, and to an image of America as a bastion of freedom, democracy, and security, has been deep and lifelong. But that was the world of yesterday. i

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Joschka Fischer, Germany’s foreign minister and vice chancellor from 1998 to 2005, was a leader of the German Green Party for almost 20 years.

"Freedom of expression – once the sacred cow of American democracy –is being discarded, replaced by a regime of lèse-majesté (the criminalisation of speech against a monarch)."

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