Insight
War in Iran: Who wins and who loses? by Ian Bond and Thomas Maddock, 20 March 2026
The attack on Iran by the US and Israel is good news for Russia but bad news for Europe, including Ukraine, and ultimately for the US itself. China could emerge as a long-term winner. Europeans must look after their own interests, regardless of Trump’s wrath. In launching a war of aggression against Iran on February 28th 2026, the US and Israel have caused renewed chaos in the Middle East, after a few months of relative stability following the US-brokered ceasefire agreement in Gaza. US president Donald Trump seems not to have considered what the war’s wider effects might be, or its winners and losers; Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu may not care. The winners Russia seems likely to be the biggest winner, in several ways. First, higher oil and gas prices will boost Russian export revenues, enabling the regime to ease pressure on the civilian economy, and to keep ploughing money into the war against Ukraine. Global oil prices rose from under $60 a barrel in the first week of January to more than $100 on March 13th, while natural gas prices in the EU more than doubled between mid-December 2025 and early March. Both prices could go much higher if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for a significant period. In an effort to increase the amount of oil in the global market, the US has suspended sanctions on the purchase of Russian oil, initially for a 30-day period. Second, as one of the world’s major fertiliser producers, Russia will also be well-placed to replace Saudi Arabia as a supplier if the Saudis are unable to export their products. That would give Moscow another source of revenue, and scope to withhold fertiliser supplies from Europe unless sanctions are suspended or lifted. Third, the war has handed Russia a valuable propaganda tool to deflect criticism of its war against Ukraine. Putin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, was clearly relishing the moment when he told a Russian television commentator: “I don’t even know how to call on anyone to adhere to the norms and principles CER INSIGHT: WAR IN IRAN: WHO WINS AND WHO LOSES? 20 March 2026
INFO@CER.EU | WWW.CER.EU
1