Insight
NATO summit 2025: Time to build a proper European pillar? by Ian Bond, 2 June 2025 Neither an ‘EU-plus’ nor a ‘NATO-minus’ could fill all the gaps that would be left in European security if the US radically reduced its commitment to NATO. Europeans need a new forum to provide substitute defence guarantees and defence capabilities. When NATO leaders meet for their summit in The Hague on June 24th-25th, they will have plenty to worry about: the war in Ukraine, Russian hybrid attacks, and where to find resources for higher defence spending. For most of them, however, the biggest worry will be the intentions of US President Donald Trump. When Trump attended the July 2018 NATO summit in Brussels, he had to be talked out of announcing that the US was leaving the alliance, according to his then national security adviser, John Bolton. What should Europeans do if he walks away from NATO this time? To begin with, they should not assume that he will not. In 2023, the US Congress passed legislation in an effort to stop a president taking such a step without its approval (ironically, co-sponsored by then Senator Marco Rubio, now Trump’s Secretary of State and National Security Adviser). Trump, however, has spent the last four months ignoring laws passed by Congress, while his administration’s actions and statements show that European security is no longer a priority for the US. The US ambassador to NATO, Matthew Whitaker, said on May 16th that the US would start discussions later this year on reducing its forces in Europe. Even if the US remain formally part of NATO, it is almost certain that its military presence in Europe will be cut. European countries will therefore need to prepare to defend themselves with less or potentially no US help. But how should Europeans strengthen their defence in the context of a (de facto if not de jure) US-less NATO? NATO officials and ministers have regularly warned that the EU cannot replace NATO and urged that the Union’s defence efforts should not compete with the alliance’s. But Trump has forced even traditionally pro-NATO politicians like German Chancellor Friedrich Merz to advocate “independence
CER INSIGHT: NATO SUMMIT 2025: TIME TO BUILD A PROPER EUROPEAN PILLAR? 2 June 2025
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