Insight
EU-UK relations: There is no steady state by Sam Lowe, 26 October 2021
The current crisis over the Northern Ireland protocol will pass, but tensions between the EU and the UK are not going away. As is fast becoming an autumn tradition, Brexit is back in the news and EU and UK officials are back huddled around a negotiating table. This time the disagreement is over the UK’s treaty commitments in respect of Northern Ireland, and how best to make them work in practice. But this is not the first time the EU and UK have fallen out, nor will it be the last. Those hoping that Brexit was behind us are in for a disappointment. A litany of future flashpoints, over issues such as financial services, the EU’s carbonborder adjustment mechanism and data adequacy threaten to sour relations further. But the relationship between the EU and its third largest trading partner was never going to be static – and as time goes on there will inevitably be ups and downs. What matters is whether differences of opinion are managed as part of a structured process, or as a never-ending series of crises. Here much depends on domestic politics and incentives. On the UK side, what matters is whether picking fights with Brussels is still viewed as politically beneficial. On the EU side, it depends on whether the UK continues to be viewed as a competitor and a threat, or as a potential ally vis-à-vis the EU’s wider geo-economic objectives. Regardless, in the short-to-medium term it would be best to brace for turbulence. The Northern Ireland protocol The current animosity between the EU and UK centres on the implementation and impact of the withdrawal agreement’s Northern Ireland protocol. The UK contends that the protocol is creating trade diversion and societal disruption in Northern Ireland, and needs to be radically overhauled in order to ensure its sustainability. The EU suspects the UK is deliberately stoking political tension in Northern Ireland in order to wriggle out of treaty commitments it never intended to honour. Both can be true at once. The UK did sign up to the protocol with no intention of fully honouring its obligations, and the protocol does need amendment in order to ensure it lasts for the long haul. Negotiations are made all the more tricky due to the EU being far from certain that Lord Frost, the UK minister tasked with implementing the protocol, actually wants to find a solution. On the one hand, Frost is identifying and trying to resolve real issues regarding the internal flow of goods within the UK. On the other he is pandering to his eurosceptic support-base within the Conservative party by attempting to re-litigate already settled issues, such as the European Court of Justice’s (ECJ) continued jurisdiction in Northern Ireland. CER INSIGHT: EU-UK relations: There is no steady state 26 October 2021
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