Insight
After the meaningful vote: What are Theresa May’s options? by Sam Lowe and John Springford 16 January 2019
Theresa May can only win a parliamentary majority for her withdrawal agreement by agreeing to negotiate a softer relationship with the EU. As expected, the British parliament voted to reject the Brexit withdrawal agreement negotiated by Theresa May and the EU. She lost by 230 votes, the largest defeat of a British government on record. Britain’s commercial, diplomatic and security interests are now seriously endangered by politicians who refuse to face up to the acute dilemmas of Brexit. Both the European Research Group, an influential group of hard-line eurosceptic Conservatives, and the Labour party pretend that they could negotiate a better deal than May’s. But they refuse to admit that the EU would insist on £40 billion and an insurance policy for Northern Ireland in any withdrawal agreement, irrespective of the future relationship that Britain signals that it would like to have. Given these contradictions, the political theatre is far from over, and will become increasingly dramatic in the run up to the scheduled date of exit, March 29th. Despite the furore, the fundamental options remain the same. Westminster has found it difficult to accept the sequencing agreed by the EU and UK for the negotiations, with the withdrawal negotiated first, and the future relationship decided upon only after the UK has left. The 600-page withdrawal agreement covers the divorce issues, and is legally binding, while the short non-binding political declaration gestures towards an exit from the single market, but offers no concrete detail beyond that. Softer forms of Brexit than May prefers, such as a permanent customs union or continued participation in the single market, also require a withdrawal agreement to be passed. The British government and parliament must choose one of the following options: revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU; ratify a withdrawal agreement and leave the EU in an orderly manner; or exit the EU without a deal. Only once the UK has left will the EU begin negotiating the terms of the future relationship in earnest. Withdrawal Agreement The Withdrawal Agreement draws a line under the wishful thinking that has dominated British politics for the best part of two years, and trades in cold, often unpalatable, compromises. Labour has voted
CER INSIGHT: After the meaningful vote: What are Theresa May’s options? 16 January 2019
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