Insight
Defence spending in NATO: Stop convincing Trump, start convincing Europeans by Sophia Besch 10 July 2018
Ahead of the NATO Summit, US President Donald Trump has written sharply worded letters to a group of European leaders who he believes are not pulling their weight in NATO. He has asked them, bluntly, and not for the first time, to spend more money on defence. Trump is not the first US President to call out European NATO allies, but his criticism is often accompanied by threats. He has repeatedly alluded to withdrawing American security guarantees if allies do not invest more. So although the US has strengthened its investment in European security under his leadership, notably in NATO’s deterrence efforts in the east, European leaders dread what might happen this week. The debate over burden sharing will dominate the NATO Summit. Trump’s desire to get Europeans to “pay up” will bring about conflict. It is important to get the facts right. For decades after the end of the Cold War the resources dedicated to defence in Europe continued to decline, a trend accelerated by the fiscal austerity implemented following the financial crisis. At the 2014 NATO summit in Wales, nations made the modest pledge to “aim to move towards” spending a minimum of 2 per cent of their gross domestic product (GDP) on defence. NATO’s focus was on showing that all its members remained committed to an effective and credible alliance. The target was designed to demonstrate that Europeans would pull their weight in providing for Europe’s defence, and persuade the US to remain engaged on the continent. The alliance has started seeing results from the 2014 Wales pledge. In 2017, Europe was the fastest-growing region in real-terms defence spending, with a 3.6 per cent increase compared to 2016. Only three allies spent 2 per cent of their GDP or more on defence in 2014; NATO expects that number to rise to eight in 2018. They are making progress, albeit slowly. The increase in European spending precedes Trump’s election. It is related to Europe’s economic recovery, to the increasingly challenging security environment in Europe since Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea, and to the string of terrorist attacks on European territory in recent years. CER INSIGHT: Defence spending in NATO: Stop convincing Trump, start convincing Europeans 10 July 2018
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