Insight
Double Dutch: Why Wilders wins, even if he stays out of government by Rem Korteweg 3 March 2017
The anti-migrant, anti-Islam, eurosceptic firebrand Geert Wilders could come out on top in this month’s Dutch elections. If so, he will be kept out of government, for now. The headline from the Dutch elections on March 15th will be the success of Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party (PVV). If the polls are to be believed, the PVV could win the most seats, riding a wave of popular discontent about the migration crisis, the eurozone crisis and multiculturalism. Currently the party holds 12 seats in the 150-seat parliament; in December projected support for the PVV peaked at 32 seats. Wilders’ main rivals, the centre-right VVD (Party for Freedom and Democracy) of Prime Minister Mark Rutte, were polling at 24. But since December, support for Wilders has dropped somewhat. By the end of February, Wilders was projected to win 26 seats, a virtual tie with Rutte. Two things explain this development. The first is the “Trump effect”. Wilders identifies with the rambunctious and politically incorrect US president. In election ads, he draws parallels between himself, Brexit and Donald Trump. Wilders’ election slogan “Take our country back” echoes Britain’s successful campaign to leave the EU. And like Trump, he is a self-styled populist who claims to be the only one who understands, and can solve the problems of the common man. But Trump’s chaotic first weeks in office seem to have given some Dutch voters second thoughts. Secondly, on the campaign trail, Mark Rutte has lurched right, copying some of Wilders’ anti-Islam, anti-migrant rhetoric. Though enthusiasm for the PVV seems to have cooled a bit, Wilders could still end up with the largest number of seats in the Tweede Kamer, the Dutch parliament’s lower chamber. But even if Wilders wins 32 seats – and he probably will not – it means he would only have the support of 20 per cent of the electorate. One of the most significant trends in these elections will be the further fragmentation of the political landscape. Thirteen parties may get into parliament, eight of which are expected to win ten seats or more. This is a historic high (see chart below).
CER INSIGHT: DOUBLE DUTCH: WHY WILDERS WINS, EVEN IF HE STAYS OUT OF GOVERNMENT 3 March 2017
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