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Erdoğan’s victory and the West by Luigi Scazzieri, 31 May 2023 Erdoğan’s re-election as Turkish president means that Ankara’s relations with its Western allies will remain turbulent. The West should expect a bumpy ride. On May 28th, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan secured re-election as Turkish president with 52 per cent of the vote. Erdoğan’s victory came despite a broad range of opposition parties uniting behind a single presidential candidate, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. Erdoğan’s control of government resources and the media meant that the contest was always stacked in his favour. But it is also clear that a broad majority of Turks ultimately trusted him more than the opposition, which he consistently painted as divided and ineffective. The question for Western policy-makers is what Erdoğan’s re-election for another five-year term means for Turkey’s domestic politics and particularly for its foreign policy. A change of direction in domestic governance appears unlikely, as there is little incentive for Erdoğan to change course and become more accommodating to his opponents. Instead, he will probably try to consolidate his power, perhaps by further changing the constitution. The state of freedoms in Turkey will continue to be a source of friction with the US and with the EU. The degree of foreign policy tensions between Turkey and the West is more difficult to predict. Over the past decade, Erdoğan has embarked on an increasingly assertive and militarised foreign policy that has led to friction with Turkey’s NATO allies. Ankara has sent ships near Greek islands and Cyprus to assert claims to a large maritime zone in the eastern Mediterranean; forged close ties to Russia, including in the military field; and is holding up Swedish accession to NATO. But there have also been periods where Erdoğan has sought to reduce tensions with the West. For example, after the catastrophic earthquakes that struck Turkey in February this year, he tried to improve relations with the West, allowing Finland to join NATO and dialling down tensions with Greece. In the near term, there is a fair chance that this policy of détente towards the West will go on. Turkey’s economy is in a fragile condition. Public spending ahead of the election created additional pressure on public finances and further weakened the lira, even as the central bank propped it up with its foreign CER INSIGHT: ERDOĞAN’S VICTORY AND THE WEST 31 May 2023
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