Insight 1998
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20
23
Europe and a new Middle East by Luigi Scazzieri, 5 October 2023 A new Middle East may be emerging as tensions thaw and US influence wanes. Europe needs different policies to deal with a changing region. Tensions between former rivals in the Middle East are thawing… The China-brokered meeting between Iran and Saudi Arabia in March this year took many observers of the Middle East by surprise. The two countries had cut off relations in 2016, and their rivalry – which stretched back decades – added fuel to the war in Yemen. They had also supported different sides during the conflicts in Lebanon, Iraq and Syria. At the Beijing meeting, which was preceded by secret talks, Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to re-establish diplomatic relations, reduce tensions (including by not interfering in each other’s domestic politics) and strengthen economic ties. The Iran-Saudi rapprochement is only one pillar of a thaw in relations between former rivals in the Middle East. Another pillar is the September 2020 ‘Abraham Accords’, the agreements to establish relations between Israel on one hand and Bahrain, Morocco and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on the other. These relationships have deepened over the past few years, especially that between Israel and the UAE, which has been strengthened by arms sales, joint military exercises and a free trade agreement in May 2022. In March 2022 Israel, Bahrain, Egypt, Morocco, the UAE and the US launched a structured co-operation platform by agreeing to meet regularly and establishing working groups to discuss issues such as clean energy and regional security. Israel’s relationship with Saudi Arabia has also grown closer, and the US is trying to broker a normalisation of relations between the two. The maritime boundary agreement between Israel and Lebanon in October last year fits into the same pattern of deepening cooperation between Israel and its Arab neighbours. Turkey’s recent détente with its neighbours makes up a third pillar. For around a decade after the 2011 Arab spring, Ankara’s relations with many Middle Eastern countries were very poor, largely because Turkey sought to increase its regional influence and other countries saw that as threatening. Ankara’s ties to the EU and the US also frayed due to wide-ranging differences. However, starting from late 2020, Ankara recalibrated its policy and sought to repair relations with Egypt, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
CER INSIGHT: EUROPE AND A NEW MIDDLE EAST 5 October 2023
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