Insight
Europe and the transition to a post-American Middle East by Luigi Scazzieri, 5 November 2021
The US’s preoccupation with China is reducing Washington’s focus on the Middle East, while Russian and Chinese influence is growing. Europeans need to step up their efforts to stabilise the region. The US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the AUKUS agreement to supply nuclear submarines to Australia are stark reminders of how the US is re-orientating its foreign policy towards countering China. This has important consequences for Europe, not least as it will mean less US involvement in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). US disengagement from the region has been gradual but constant under Obama, Trump and Biden. Obama began the ‘pivot’ to Asia and distanced Washington from its traditional allies in the Gulf, particularly by negotiating a nuclear deal with Iran. Trump continued the pivot towards Asia: his erratic policy in Syria, and his failure to stand by Saudi Arabia after Iran’s 2019 attacks on Saudi oil facilities, weakened the credibility of US security guarantees. Under Biden, the US has focused even more on China: it abandoned Afghanistan and withdrew some defence systems from Jordan, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. US troops in Iraq will fall in number and shift from a combat mission to an advisory one by the end of the year. Washington is no longer reliant on the Middle East’s energy resources: in 2020, the US became a net petroleum exporter, and only 10 per cent of its petroleum imports came from the Persian Gulf. The US is not going to withdraw entirely from the MENA, and US military support, arms sales and diplomacy will ensure that Washington remains influential in the short to medium term. But the trend is towards less US involvement in the region, not least because this is popular with the American public. The perception of US withdrawal has become widespread. Meanwhile, Russia and China’s clout has been growing. Many MENA leaders see Washington as likely to criticise their human rights records and abandon them in a crisis. Pressure from public opinion and Congress can also make the US reluctant to supply weapons, as shown by Biden’s decision to suspend arms sales to Saudi Arabia and the UAE. By contrast, Russia’s support for Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, despite the atrocities of his regime, has allowed Moscow to position itself as a reliable partner for autocratic leaders. Russia is an important arms supplier, including to US allies: it is Egypt’s leading provider, and the UAE’s third largest. And in August, Saudi Arabia and Russia signed a military co-operation agreement, potentially heralding arms purchases. China’s economic footprint and political influence in the MENA are also growing. Beijing imports around half of its oil from the region, and China-MENA trade doubled between 2009 and 2018. China is now the CER INSIGHT: Europe and the transition to a post-American Middle East’ 5 November 2021
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