Insight
Europe can’t ignore Libya by Luigi Scazzieri, 2 August 2021
Libya has a new unity government, but the country could easily slip back into conflict. In order to avoid this happening, Europeans should increase their stabilisation efforts. Libya has been embroiled in a multi-phase civil war since the overthrow of long-time ruler Muammar Gaddafi by Western-backed rebels in 2011. The country has been split between rival administrations since 2014, while militias and lawlessness have proliferated, oil production has fallen and infrastructure has been destroyed. Egypt, Russia, Turkey and the UAE became involved in Libya, to gain influence and profit from the country’s oil and its business opportunities. Meanwhile, European countries have pursued competing approaches to stabilising Libya, and at times even backed different sides in the conflict. Libya became a major jumping-off point for irregular migration to Europe, a base for extremist groups and a source of regional instability. In February this year, there was a glimmer of hope when Libyans agreed to form a provisional Government of National Unity (GNU). But Europeans can’t be complacent: Libya could easily plunge back into conflict. The formation of the GNU was made possible by an October 2020 ceasefire agreement that halted military commander Khalifa Haftar’s bid to overthrow the UN-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA). Egypt, the UAE and Russia supported Haftar, while Turkey supported the GNA. The fighting ended in a stalemate, which encouraged all parties to agree to a ceasefire. The ceasefire in turn unblocked UN efforts to broker a political settlement. In February 2021, the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF), a group of Libyans selected by the UN, agreed to form a provisional unity government to ferry the country to elections in December. The LPDF selected Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, a businessman, as prime minister. Dbeibah has close connections to Turkey, but his government included representatives from across the country and was also acceptable to Haftar, Egypt, the UAE and Russia. In March there was a peaceful transfer of power from Libya’s rival governments to the GNU, with Libya’s parliament voting to approve the new government. After years of divisions over how to approach Libya, with Italy backing the GNA and France supporting Haftar, Europeans are now united in wanting to strengthen the GNU. EU leaders such as Italy’s Mario Draghi, Greece’s Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Spain’s Pedro Sánchez and European Council President Charles Michel have visited Tripoli to bolster the GNU’s authority. Many European countries and the EU itself have re-opened their representations in Libya. Germany has tried to maintain momentum behind the plan CER INSIGHT: Europe can’t ignore Libya 2 August 2021
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