Insight
What Giorgia Meloni would mean for Europe by Luigi Scazzieri, 16 September 2022 A government led by Giorgia Meloni would lead to some turbulence between Rome and Brussels – particularly on migration and economic policy. But Italy’s EU and foreign policies – including towards Russia – are unlikely to change much. Italy’s election on September 25th is likely to result in a right-wing coalition government made up of Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, Matteo Salvini’s League and Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia. This rightwing alliance has a very large advantage in opinion polls, and its victory seems assured. Given that Brothers of Italy has become by far the largest party of the right, Italy’s next prime minister will probably be Meloni. Her popularity is partly due to her straight-talking style, which helps her connect with many voters. Brothers of Italy also benefits from having been in opposition for the past decade, unlike all other major parties, and therefore has not had to make unpopular choices. Italy’s European and international partners are concerned about what a Meloni-led government might mean for Italy’s economy, for the sustainability of its debt (which stands at over 150 per cent of GDP) and for Italy’s relationship with the EU. Salvini and Meloni’s admiration for Putin also makes observers fret that a right-wing government might go soft on Russia. And, given Salvini’s populism and Meloni’s background in the neo-fascist Italian Social Movement, there are concerns that Italy could become a disruptive EU member like Poland or even Hungary. This paper analyses the common electoral programme of the right-wing coalition and what it is likely to do if in government. The programme suggests that Meloni and her allies have embraced a relatively moderate set of policies on the EU and foreign policy, whereas their key economic proposals would be so expensive that they would likely be pared down or shelved after the election. Economic policy and its implications for growth and debt sustainability The economic platform of the right-wing coalition calls for tax cuts for individuals and businesses, combined with more social spending, like higher pensions and benefits for families. The three partners also say they want to revise Italy’s recovery plan, in agreement with the EU, to put more resources into energy diversification, and to help consumers and businesses to deal with higher energy prices.
CER INSIGHT: What Giorgia Meloni would mean for Europe 16 SEPTEMBER 2022
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