Insight
Italy after Draghi by Luigi Scazzieri, 19 July 2022 Mario Draghi’s tenure as Italian prime minister could be ending. Draghi would leave Italy stronger than he found it, but it will be up to his successors not to squander his legacy. Mario Draghi provided Italy with stability at a crucial time, boosted the country’s international influence and put together a €190 billion plan for using the EU’s post-pandemic recovery fund. But his government of national unity now hangs by a thread. Draghi offered his resignation after one of the parties making up the government coalition, the Five Star Movement (5S), refused to back a law on measures to assist lower-income Italians in dealing with the higher cost of living, arguing that it did not go far enough. But the law was approved anyway, and Italy’s President Sergio Mattarella rejected Draghi’s resignation, because the government had not lost a vote of confidence. Draghi’s future will be determined on Wednesday, when he will report to parliament and gauge whether he has enough support to continue as prime minister. The political parties making up his coalition, which has governed Italy since February 2021, face varying incentives. The centre-left Democratic Party is Draghi’s staunchest backer: elections now would mean losing power, as polls suggest that the most likely outcome would be the victory of a coalition of right-wing parties. The same is generally true of the smaller centrist and centre-left parties that support Draghi. The 5S is torn: it is polling very badly and fears early elections, yet quitting the government now seems to many in the party as the best way to regain votes. Political calculations among Draghi’s right-wing backers are different. Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia and Matteo Salvini’s League would stay in power if elections were held and a right-wing coalition won, but they would be junior partners to Brothers of Italy, which is the only major party not backing Draghi’s government and is currently polling the strongest of all the parties on the right. Forza Italia and the League have said that they no longer wish to govern with the 5S, as it is too unreliable. For his part, Draghi could continue to govern even without the 5S, but he insists that he will only govern with the party, because otherwise his government would no longer be one of national unity. If Draghi, Berlusconi and Salvini all dig in their heels, this would spell the end for the government. But the three could still change their minds, especially if more parliamentarians follow foreign minister Luigi Di Maio, a former 5S member and staunch backer of Draghi, into the new party he set up last month. This would allow Draghi to claim that his government was still one of national unity. CER INSIGHT: Italy after Draghi 19 July 2022
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