Insight
Italy after the election: From partner to problem? by Luigi Scazzieri 30 January 2018
Italy’s 4th March election is likely to be less consequential than many assume. But it will highlight the urgency of reforming the eurozone and better managing migration. Italy’s election comes at a crucial time for the EU. In 2017, President Emmanuel Macron’s victory in France fuelled hopes of a relaunch of the EU with a new pact for the eurozone, and more co-operation on security and migration. But the reality was more mixed: eurosceptic forces performed well in the Austrian and German elections. Meanwhile, Poland and Hungary remain openly opposed to Brussels and separatism in Catalonia poses a challenge to Madrid. Some observers worry that Italy’s election may lead to the rise to power of the eurosceptic Five Star Movement. This outcome will probably be avoided. But the strong showing of eurosceptic forces, in particular amongst the young, should be a wake up call to the EU. Three main political forces will contest the election: a centre-left coalition formed of Matteo Renzi’s Democratic Party and some smaller allies; a centre-right coalition formed by former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia, the anti-immigration, eurosceptic Northern League, the nationalist Brothers of Italy, and smaller allies; the anti-establishment and eurosceptic Five Star Movement. The centre-right has the momentum, even though the coalition has no leader (Berlusconi is barred from standing for election because of his conviction for tax fraud in 2013). Italy’s mild economic recovery, with growth of around 1.5 per cent in 2017, has not benefited the incumbent centre-left government led by Paolo Gentiloni. Unemployment remains the issue of greatest concern to Italians. Moreover, the centre-right has been able to ride a wave of discontent over the migration crisis: Italy has taken in 624,000 migrants arriving by boat from North Africa in the past four years. Migration remains the second greatest concern for the public, which perceives the government’s record in reducing migration to be poor, even though a series of controversial deals with Libya succeeded in reducing arrivals from 180,000 in 2016 to 120,000 in 2017.
CER INSIGHT: Italy after the election: from partner to problem? 30 January 2018
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