Insight
The EU and Libya: Realism or irrelevance by Luigi Scazzieria 3 February 2017
Europe cannot view Libya only through the lens of migration. It needs to stabilise the country, brokering a compromise between different factions. As violence increases and humanitarian conditions worsen, time is running out. Migration from Libya will be the first item on the agenda of EU leaders as they meet today in Malta. But Libya is a divided nation with no effective government, and violent skirmishes between different political factions are rapidly escalating. Attempts to tackle migration will amount to little unless they are accompanied by a broader political effort to reconcile different parties in a unity government. Stabilising Libya is a priority for the EU: rising violence increases humanitarian suffering and benefits extremist groups. They also allow militant networks to expand across borders, putting the stability of Algeria and Tunisia at risk, which could lead to increases in migration flows to Europe. Libya currently has various competing centres of power with different sources of legitimacy and support. The two main ones are the House of Representatives in Tobruk and the Presidential Council in Tripoli. The House of Representatives was elected in Libya’s most recent election in 2014. It is backed by General Haftar, a strongman with close ties to Egypt and warm relations with Russia and the UAE. He has allegedly received some military support from France and the UK in fighting extremist groups, including organisations connected to Daesh. The House of Representatives and Haftar have their base of support in eastern Libya, a region with a strong sense of independence, but they also have sympathisers in the west of the country. The Presidential Council, a nine man presidency headed by Faiez al-Serraj, is the result of UN mediation efforts to bring together the House of Representatives and the previous Libyan parliament elected in 2012, and is underpinned by the Libyan Political Agreement of December 2015. The process of reconciliation was supposed to lead to a fully-fledged government once the House of Representatives ratified the Political Agreement and approved a cabinet. But these steps have not happened,
CER INSIGHT: THE EU AND LIBYA: REALISM OR IRRELEVANCE 3 February 2017
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